ilovethecats said:This could possibly be the best post on egriz. Ever.AZGrizFan said:3-day moving average for daily deaths in the US from COVID-19:
4/16 - 2524
4/23 - 2520
4/30 - 2418
5/7 - 2383
5/14 - 1853
5/21 - 1482
5/28 - 1345
6/4 - 1100
6/11 - 1007
6/18 - 812
6/25- 781
Not a SINGLE measurement increased from the peak 3-day average on 4/16. 11 straight weeks of declining death rate. Despite the reopenings. Despite the riots/protests. Despite the political rallies.
Raw deaths continue to decline
The 3-day average continues to decline
The 7-day average continues to decline
Literally the ONLY metric that’s going up is new cases. The low point for the 3-day moving average of new cases was June 9th. The metric stood at 19,107, and hadn’t been that low since March 25th. That was the inflection point where the 3-day moving average began climbing. (Presumably from two solid weeks of riots and protests across the country). But that was TWENTY THREE DAYS ago. Not just one week. Not even just two weeks. Hell, not even THREE weeks ago. But 23 DAYS ago. We should have started seeing increases in the death count 10 days ago, at a minimum. But instead, what did we have Sunday? The lowest Sunday dearth count since March 22nd.
At my place of employment we’ve had 23 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Almost all in otherwise healthy individuals aged 55 or less. We’re 23-0, with nary a single hospitalization. THAT’S WHAT HAPPENS when healthy people go back to work. They’re going to get exposed, get a little sick, get over it, and go back to work again. That’s why I believe cases are going up, but deaths aren’t. Those at most risk are taking necessary precautions, and those at much less risk are going back to work (until the fear mongers shut down states again, I suppose).
Another factor is this: the more virulent strain kills its host, and then dies with it. The less virulent strain does NOT kill it’s host is is thus spread more prevalently, beginning to act more and more like the common flu. I believe that’s what we’re seeing now....the transformation of this virus into something significantly less lethal than it was originally.
And finally, one could argue that the most at-risk members of our society were already exposed in the early stages and died. Now that we have a better understanding of who/what it attacks, we’re able to take precautions to avoid a repeat of that (you know, like requiring nursing homes to take COVID patients — Thanks, Cuomo...).
Now, this is all pure conjecture (well, except the data part). I’m not a doctor, but I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night....
Unless of course there’s something really witty about coach Choate....
Well...I hate to break it to EG, but we just had our 12th straight week of weekly death decline...
7/2 - 697 (3-day); 7 day down to 516 (peaked at 2248 on 4/16)
But just wait two weeks, bro. :lol: :lol: