Who's with me?

[AZGrizFan]

3-day moving average for daily deaths in the US from COVID-19:

4/16 - 2524
4/23 - 2520
4/30 - 2418
5/7 - 2383
5/14 - 1853
5/21 - 1482
5/28 - 1345
6/4 - 1100
6/11 - 1007
6/18 - 812
6/25- 781

Not a SINGLE measurement increased from the peak 3-day average on 4/16. 11 straight weeks of declining death rate. Despite the reopenings. Despite the riots/protests. Despite the political rallies.

Raw deaths continue to decline
The 3-day average continues to decline
The 7-day average continues to decline

Literally the ONLY metric that’s going up is new cases. The low point for the 3-day moving average of new cases was June 9th. The metric stood at 19,107, and hadn’t been that low since March 25th. That was the inflection point where the 3-day moving average began climbing. (Presumably from two solid weeks of riots and protests across the country). But that was TWENTY THREE DAYS ago. Not just one week. Not even just two weeks. Hell, not even THREE weeks ago. But 23 DAYS ago. We should have started seeing increases in the death count 10 days ago, at a minimum. But instead, what did we have Sunday? The lowest Sunday dearth count since March 22nd.

At my place of employment we’ve had 23 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Almost all in otherwise healthy individuals aged 55 or less. We’re 23-0, with nary a single hospitalization. THAT’S WHAT HAPPENS when healthy people go back to work. They’re going to get exposed, get a little sick, get over it, and go back to work again. That’s why I believe cases are going up, but deaths aren’t. Those at most risk are taking necessary precautions, and those at much less risk are going back to work (until the fear mongers shut down states again, I suppose).

Another factor is this: the more virulent strain kills its host, and then dies with it. The less virulent strain does NOT kill it’s host is is thus spread more prevalently, beginning to act more and more like the common flu. I believe that’s what we’re seeing now....the transformation of this virus into something significantly less lethal than it was originally.

And finally, one could argue that the most at-risk members of our society were already exposed in the early stages and died. Now that we have a better understanding of who/what it attacks, we’re able to take precautions to avoid a repeat of that (you know, like requiring nursing homes to take COVID patients — Thanks, Cuomo...).

Now, this is all pure conjecture (well, except the data part). I’m not a doctor, but I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night....

This could possibly be the best post on egriz. Ever.

Unless of course there’s something really witty about coach Choate....

Well...I hate to break it to EG, but we just had our 12th straight week of weekly death decline...

7/2 - 697 (3-day); 7 day down to 516 (peaked at 2248 on 4/16)

But just wait two weeks, bro. :lol: :lol:

 

[argh!]

Well...I hate to break it to EG, but we just had our 12th straight week of weekly death decline...

7/2 - 697 (3-day); 7 day down to 516 (peaked at 2248 on 4/16)

But just wait two weeks, bro. :lol: :lol:

that is because the country wasn't prepared at the onset, despite intel reports, etc, about the virus. i'm told some clown who lives only for attention, but is supposed to be in charge of the country, didn't pay attention.

 

[kemajic]

Well...I hate to break it to EG, but we just had our 12th straight week of weekly death decline...

7/2 - 697 (3-day); 7 day down to 516 (peaked at 2248 on 4/16)

But just wait two weeks, bro. :lol: :lol:

that is because the country wasn't prepared at the onset, despite intel reports, etc, about the virus. i'm told some clown who lives only for attention, but is supposed to be in charge of the country, didn't pay attention.

You've been fed misinformation before.

 

[Grizzoola]

Why are daily numbers of new infections in some countries, incl. the US, exceeding those that were supposedly highest back in April? Also, deaths have probably decreased due to better methods of treatment, as medical science learns more about it. For example, it's been shown that ventilators may do more harm than good for some patients.

 

[WaGriz4life]

You are definitely not listening to the experts based on your posts. You are most certainly watching a lot of news though.

Also if you look at COVID Deaths day by day you will see the 90% decrease most days since April, since you are studying.

The only time I “watch” news is when I travel internationally.

No where are the numbers even close to a 90% decrease. Even on those “news” sources people watch.

Yesterday 254 people died of COVID vs 2,749 on April 21. That’s a 92.4% decrease for those that can do math. Tough day for the “nowhere near 90%” crowd. I can do this everyday for you if you would like.

 

[AZGrizFan]

Well...I hate to break it to EG, but we just had our 12th straight week of weekly death decline...

7/2 - 697 (3-day); 7 day down to 516 (peaked at 2248 on 4/16)

But just wait two weeks, bro. :lol: :lol:

that is because the country wasn't prepared at the onset, despite intel reports, etc, about the virus. i'm told some clown who lives only for attention, but is supposed to be in charge of the country, didn't pay attention.

You must be talking about that clown in NY who forced nursing homes to take in COVID patients, ensuring the deaths of tens of thousands of elderly in New York.

 

[AZGrizFan]

The only time I “watch” news is when I travel internationally.

No where are the numbers even close to a 90% decrease. Even on those “news” sources people watch.

Yesterday 254 people died of COVID vs 2,749 on April 21. That’s a 92.4% decrease for those that can do math. Tough day for the “nowhere near 90%” crowd. I can do this everyday for you if you would like.

Math is hard for some folks, Lifer. :lol:

 

[WaGriz4life]

Yesterday 254 people died of COVID vs 2,749 on April 21. That’s a 92.4% decrease for those that can do math. Tough day for the “nowhere near 90%” crowd. I can do this everyday for you if you would like.

Math is hard for some folks, Lifer. :lol:

I might actually start doing this. Out of frustration of people that refuse to look at the data. It was only 87% on Thursday. Not sure if that meets the nowhere near 90% threshold or not.

 

[AZGrizFan]

Math is hard for some folks, Lifer. :lol:

I might actually start doing this. Out of frustration of people that refuse to look at the data. It was only 87% on Thursday. Not sure if that meets the nowhere near 90% threshold or not.

I dont’ know if he’s using the 7-day or 3-day moving averages to justify the statement that deaths aren’t down 90% or what....but raw deaths are down 90%. There’s no denying that absolute fact. And there’s also no denying that “new cases” started spiking on 6/13 (3-day average increased after 7 straight weekly declines). It’s been climbing ever since. That’s twenty two days ago. I realize deaths lag cases, but we’re not seeing that increase even 22 days later in this country. We just had the lowest # of daily deaths since March 23rd.

We just need to wait two weeks. :lol:

 

[Grizzoola]

Go to: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Look at chart, bottom, right. Infections are still increasing. Spin it all you want, but this is the bottom line fact.

 

[MikeyGriz]

More testing will do that plus additional time, Nothing being done would stop the virus, only slow it down. How would cumulative cases not continue to rise?

 

[WaGriz4life]

More testing will do that plus additional time, Nothing being done would stop the virus, only slow it down. How would cumulative cases not continue to rise?

I had to explain to a girl the other night how it’s impossible for cumulative cases to go down. We can’t stop the virus and it’s irresponsible for people to act like we can.

 

[WaGriz4life]

Go to: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Look at chart, bottom, right. Infections are still increasing. Spin it all you want, but this is the bottom line fact.

The bottom line is not infections, it’s deaths, are you serious? Dr. Birx said two weeks ago that there is great concern over the effectiveness of the tests they are giving. Said up to 50% of all tests are false/positives.

Explain to me why infections, and not deaths, is the most important factor?

 

[Grizzoola]

Go to: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Look at chart, bottom, right. Infections are still increasing. Spin it all you want, but this is the bottom line fact.

The bottom line is not infections, it’s deaths, are you serious? Dr. Birx said two weeks ago that there is great concern over the effectiveness of the tests they are giving. Said up to 50% of all tests are false/positives.

Explain to me why infections, and not deaths, is the most important factor?

As if you care, the US is now a pariah to the rest of the world, due to the # of infections, not deaths. Mexico closed a road from the US. (Spin that, too, re: the migrants.) The E.U. forbids American entry, now. Caribbean, South Pacific islands, etc., valued vacation, touring spots, still mostly closed to Americans. No. of infections is still key. The U.S. (Trump) has fucked up U.S. reputation as a world leader. Feel better?

 

[kemajic]

The bottom line is not infections, it’s deaths, are you serious? Dr. Birx said two weeks ago that there is great concern over the effectiveness of the tests they are giving. Said up to 50% of all tests are false/positives.

Explain to me why infections, and not deaths, is the most important factor?

As if you care, the US is now a pariah to the rest of the world, due to the # of infections, not deaths. Mexico closed a road from the US. (Spin that, too, re: the migrants.) The E.U. forbids American entry, now. Caribbean, South Pacific islands, etc., valued vacation, touring spots, still mostly closed to Americans. No. of infections is still key. The U.S. (Trump) has f###[#] up U.S. reputation as a world leader. Feel better?

I see little bad news in your list. Keep trying.

 

[EverettGriz]

The only time I “watch” news is when I travel internationally.

No where are the numbers even close to a 90% decrease. Even on those “news” sources people watch.

Yesterday 254 people died of COVID vs 2,749 on April 21. That’s a 92.4% decrease for those that can do math. Tough day for the “nowhere near 90%” crowd. I can do this everyday for you if you would like.

By choosing two static points? Wow. Just....wow.

Congratulations! You found numbers to make your argument valid!

Note that daily percentages of deaths will ALWAYS be skewed, because NYC added nearly 4000 in one day. If If you're not using some form of moving average, you're either math illiterate, or trying really, really hard to make numbers fit your narrative. I'm guessing the second?

Isn't math great?!

 

[Da Boyz Mom]

Yesterday 254 people died of COVID vs 2,749 on April 21. That’s a 92.4% decrease for those that can do math. Tough day for the “nowhere near 90%” crowd. I can do this everyday for you if you would like.

By choosing two static points? Wow. Just....wow.

Congratulations! You found numbers to make your argument valid!

Note that daily percentages of deaths will ALWAYS be skewed, because NYC added nearly 4000 in one day. If If you're not using some form of moving average, you're either math illiterate, or trying really, really hard to make numbers fit your narrative. I'm guessing the second?

Isn't math great?!

Not that I want to get in the middle of this pissing match, BUT even when you use a trailing 7 day average, the average daily deaths have still fallen about 77% since the peak. I used data from this website :
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111867/trailing-seven-day-average-number-of-covid-19-deaths-select-countries-worldwide/

The peak (7 day average) daily death rate was 2715 on April 22. The most recent day shown on this website was July 3, at 618 deaths (again, the 7 day average). So even though a 77% decrease in daily deaths is not 90%, I would say it's statistically significant.

Also, this pattern of decreasing mortality is happening around the world - not just in the US. There are a myriad of reasons this could be the case, but it's pretty obvious that in general it's becoming far less deadly and even a huge spike in new cases isn't changing that. You can see the graph here:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average

 

[AZGrizFan]

Yesterday 254 people died of COVID vs 2,749 on April 21. That’s a 92.4% decrease for those that can do math. Tough day for the “nowhere near 90%” crowd. I can do this everyday for you if you would like.

By choosing two static points? Wow. Just....wow.

Congratulations! You found numbers to make your argument valid!

Note that daily percentages of deaths will ALWAYS be skewed, because NYC added nearly 4000 in one day. If If you're not using some form of moving average, you're either math illiterate, or trying really, really hard to make numbers fit your narrative. I'm guessing the second?

Isn't math great?!

Which is why I use exactly that (moving averages). But even using the 7-day moving average, deaths are down 77%. Not quite 90%, but FFS, can we not all agree its a great thing and a great trend (that doesn’t seem to be changing despite the increased case count)? You wanna quibble over a few percentage points?

Edit: Well damn, I see my favorite poster (Mom) beat me by 3 minutes. :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:


Hey all: we just need to wait two weeks. Armageddon will be here then. Just wait two weeks.

 

[AZGrizFan]

As if you care, the US is now a pariah to the rest of the world, due to the # of infections, not deaths. Mexico closed a road from the US. (Spin that, too, re: the migrants.) The E.U. forbids American entry, now. Caribbean, South Pacific islands, etc., valued vacation, touring spots, still mostly closed to Americans. No. of infections is still key. The U.S. (Trump) has f###[#] up U.S. reputation as a world leader. Feel better?

I see little bad news in your list. Keep trying.

I see no bad news. But then again, I’m a glass-half-full kind of guy... :lol:

 

[AZGrizFan]

More testing will do that plus additional time, Nothing being done would stop the virus, only slow it down. How would cumulative cases not continue to rise?

I had to explain to a girl the other night how it’s impossible for cumulative cases to go down. We can’t stop the virus and it’s irresponsible for people to act like we can.

Apparently you need to explain it to Grizzoula too. :x :lol: