Time to Face the Facts: There Ain’t Gonna be Fall Football

[PlayerRep]

I said nothing about cause or causation. I quoted stats out of a national newspaper.

Why are you blabbering about that? It's just a stat. From reading the mainstream media, would you know that stat? Did you know that stat?

I guess I’m curious if the relevance of that statistic. What does it prove? Why post it?

Mainly it’s just a stat. I didn’t use it to argue anything.

It’s also contrary to the impression given by the media. In terms of the states. Not dem or Repub.

Why are you so defensive about it?

 

[AZGrizFan]

I’m surprised that the UM administration apparently is still considering having any form of a football season. There are far too many health risks for everyone including players, coaches, staff, students, parents.

What, exactly, is the health risk to the players? The death rate for those under 25 has three zeros after the decimal point before you get to a crooked number.

 

[PlayerRep]

"Of the 10 states with the most fatalities, the six highest tolls are all in states with Democratic leadership. Republicans run the virus response in states ranked seventh through 10th in this grim lineup." Wa Post.

doesn't mean much without knowing the populations of the states, and you know it. it seems you really have joined the cult of trump, who ignore the endless lies and exaggerations. thought you were smarter than that, but there you go. this graph shows the states with the biggest increases in cases recently, adjusted for population. other than montana, not too many states run by dems in the worst 20 or so states in this one,:

Place Total reported deaths per 100k New deaths in last 7 days per 100k Pct. change
Texas 21 5 +35%
Montana 5 1 +29%
South Carolina 32 6 +22%
Idaho 9 1 +19%
Florida 31 5 +18%
Arizona 50 7 +16%
Alaska 3 0 +16%
Virgin Islands 8 1 +14%
Puerto Rico 6 1 +14%
Alabama 32 4 +13%
Arkansas 14 2 +13%
Tennessee 15 2 +13%
Oregon 7 1 +12%
Oklahoma 13 1 +11%
Delaware 61 6 +10%
Utah 9 1 +10%
Mississippi 52 5 +10%
North Carolina 18 2 +10%
West Virginia 6 0 +9%
South Dakota 15 1 +8%
California 22 2 +8%
Nevada 26 2 +8%
Georgia 35 2 +7%
Kentucky 16 1 +6%
North Dakota 14 1 +6%
New Mexico 30 2 +6%
Louisiana 83 5 +6%
Kansas 12 1 +6%
Washington 21 1 +5%
Wisconsin 16 1 +5%
Missouri 20 1 +5%
Ohio 29 1 +5%
Iowa 27 1 +4%
Hawaii 2 0 +4%
Wyoming 4 0 +4%
Virginia 25 1 +4%
Nebraska 17 1 +3%
Maine 9 0 +3%
Minnesota 29 1 +2%
Maryland 58 1 +2%
Indiana 44 1 +2%
Colorado 33 1 +2%
New Hampshire 30 1 +2%
Pennsylvania 56 1 +1%
Illinois 60 1 +1%
Rhode Island 95 1 +1%
Massachusetts 125 1 +1%
District of Columbia 85 1 +1%
New Jersey 178 1 +1%
Michigan 64 0

The quote was from an opinion piece in the Washington Post. Here's more of it.

"Headlines on this newspaper’s website this past weekend focused on Florida — “Coronavirus ravaged Florida, as Ron DeSantis sidelined scientists and followed Trump” — and imperiled Republicans in the Senate — “As pandemic limits scrutiny, GOP fears lesser-known Democratic candidates will steamroll to Senator majority.” (Florida became the state with the second-highest number of cases over the weekend, surpassing New York.)
The awful metrics of covid-19 deaths tell a different story, according to data kept current by Johns Hopkins University. New York has suffered 32,645 deaths; New Jersey 15,804; California 8,455; Illinois 7,608; Pennsylvania 7,131; and Michigan 6,405 fatalities. All of these states have Democratic governors.
AD

Republicans hold statehouses in some big states and there the counts look like this: Florida has seen 5,931 deaths, Texas with 5,085 fatalities and Ohio with 3,344. Arizona, also with a GOP governor, has 3,304 dead. Thus, of the 10 states with the most fatalities, the six highest tolls are all in states with Democratic leadership. Republicans run the virus response in states ranked seventh through 10th in this grim lineup.
Full coverage of the coronavirus pandemic

How often have you seen those harshest of facts? Instead, the headlines trumpet new cases, where California leads with 453,155 cases, Florida with 432,747, New York with 412,344 cases and Texas with 394,927. Case numbers follow population totals fairly closely, but Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is pummeled by New York and Beltway media, while New York’s Andrew M. Cuomo (D) gets at least a pass and often praise."

So, reading and quoting the WaPost puts me in the "cult of Trump"? Now that's pretty funny.

In deaths per capita, there are 12 states and DC ahead of nos. 7-10, in terms of virus deaths.
AZ is 14th, Flo. is 22d, AZ is 20th, and Ohio is 21st.

Perhaps you should do some research before you jump to conclusions and post stupid stuff.

 

[PlayerRep]

I too am curious about the "far too many" health risks everyone, especially the students and players face. Certainly not death. And a VERY low chance of being hospitalized. This group actually has a pretty low chance of even knowing they're positive.

Which brings us all the way back around to the fact that the only real risk is young people infecting old people. Young people are at almost no risk. Hell, people 44 and younger are barely at any risk.

Someone age 40, died in Billings yesterday.

"One of the people who died was a man in his 70s who died at home last Friday, July 24.

The other person who died was also a man in his 70s. He died at home Tuesday.

The state also added 201 new cases from 3,947 tests Wednesday morning. Yellowstone County and Big Horn County, which added 40 and 45 cases, account for 42% of the new cases. The state set a record for new cases added in a single day last Saturday, when testing confirmed 224 new cases. Before that, the largest increase was of 145 new cases on July 15.

Yellowstone County has now reported 21 deaths since July 6. Of those deaths 16 have been residents of local senior care facilities, including 15 who were residents of Canyon Creek Memory Care.

The county had its first person in their 40s die of COVID-19 on Sunday. The man died at home. His death was announced publicly Tuesday morning. His death was one of five reported across the state Tuesday.

Deaths reported Tuesday included the first deaths in Custer County: two people over the age of 65 who died Sunday and Monday. In Lincoln County a man in his 80s who died Sunday, and in Gallatin County the health department announced that the state medical examiner determined a man in his 50s found unresponsive in his home July 7 died from a combination of COVID-19 and "a number of significant underlying health conditions."

https://billingsgazette.com/news/local/2-more-covid-19-deaths-40-new-cases-reported-in-yellowstone-county-says-state/article_1e8d7098-88a7-5678-a8f3-ee0496f6e39b.html#tracking-source=home-top-story

 

[oldrunner]

I’m surprised that the UM administration apparently is still considering having any form of a football season. There are far too many health risks for everyone including players, coaches, staff, students, parents.

What, exactly, is the health risk to the players? The death rate for those under 25 has three zeros after the decimal point before you get to a crooked number.

Yes. It is true that young people have a much lower risk of dying from this. However, they are finding permanent damage to the lungs, heart, brain and other organs in young people who either had no symptoms or mild symptoms. This is not something that should be taken lightly. I can just imagine the lawsuits that will, or at least could, come of this. This all needs to be well thought out and planned out by people who understand the risk/reward situation.

 

[PlayerRep]

What, exactly, is the health risk to the players? The death rate for those under 25 has three zeros after the decimal point before you get to a crooked number.

Yes. It is true that young people have a much lower risk of dying from this. However, they are finding permanent damage to the lungs, heart, brain and other organs in young people who either had no symptoms or mild symptoms. This is not something that should be taken lightly. I can just imagine the lawsuits that will, or at least could, come of this. This all needs to be well thought out and planned out by people who understand the risk/reward situation.

From what I've read, the other damage to younger people is not prevalent at all, and, in my view, is being hyped by the media.

For college sports, I don't see a big potential legal issue. Players, coaches, trainers will make informed decisions, and so will fans, if any.

 

[BozAngelesGriz]

I guess I’m curious if the relevance of that statistic. What does it prove? Why post it?

Mainly it’s just a stat. I didn’t use it to argue anything.

It’s also contrary to the impression given by the media. In terms of the states. Not dem or Repub.

Why are you so defensive about it?

How is it contrary to the impression given by the media, when you got it from the media? Not defensive, still trying to wrap my head around the relevance.

 

[oldrunner]

Yes. It is true that young people have a much lower risk of dying from this. However, they are finding permanent damage to the lungs, heart, brain and other organs in young people who either had no symptoms or mild symptoms. This is not something that should be taken lightly. I can just imagine the lawsuits that will, or at least could, come of this. This all needs to be well thought out and planned out by people who understand the risk/reward situation.

From what I've read, the other damage to younger people is not prevalent at all, and, in my view, is being hyped by the media.

For college sports, I don't see a big potential legal issue. Players, coaches, trainers will make informed decisions, and so will fans, if any.

I'm certainly not saying that there can not be a safe way to do this, or even that the reward for having the season isn't worth the risk. I want there to be a season as much as anyone. I just think that there are people who are more informed than any of us that should be listened to and that planning needs to be well thought out.

 

[ilovethecats]

I too am curious about the "far too many" health risks everyone, especially the students and players face. Certainly not death. And a VERY low chance of being hospitalized. This group actually has a pretty low chance of even knowing they're positive.

Which brings us all the way back around to the fact that the only real risk is young people infecting old people. Young people are at almost no risk. Hell, people 44 and younger are barely at any risk.

Someone age 40, died in Billings yesterday.

I don't dispute that. He was unfortunately one of the 1.7% of people in his age bracket that could die from this virus. I have never claimed that not a single person that age could die. I said people that age are barely at risk, and all the stats back that up.

Furthermore, we don't know who this guy was so it's tough to speculate. But I'll be shocked if he didn't have underlying conditions like 99% of the people who die from this have.

I have yet to here of a single college athlete or professional athlete dying from this. Despite it being on every news outlet when one tests positive. Do you really believe college athletes in the best shape of their lives are at much if any risk? Nothing I have seen would suggest that.

 

[Spanky2]

Can anyone please explain how it is possible for college football players to wear masks or do social distancing? We know there are outbreaks of the virus with Major League Baseball. Why does anyone think it won’t occur with college football?
Why begin a season, have outbreaks of the virus and shut down?

 

[Spanky2]

Someone age 40, died in Billings yesterday.

I don't dispute that. He was unfortunately one of the 1.7% of people in his age bracket that could die from this virus. I have never claimed that not a single person that age could die. I said people that age are barely at risk, and all the stats back that up.

Furthermore, we don't know who this guy was so it's tough to speculate. But I'll be shocked if he didn't have underlying conditions like 99% of the people who die from this have.

I have yet to here of a single college athlete or professional athlete dying from this. Despite it being on every news outlet when one tests positive. Do you really believe college athletes in the best shape of their lives are at much if any risk? Nothing I have seen would suggest that.

The virus is new and all of the long term complications aren’t known, are they? A wise man would wait for a vaccine before he allowed his son to play college football before spring.

 

[Spanky2]

The players certainly are a consideration. What about the fans? Does anyone really believe UM can go through multiple home games without a serious outbreak of the virus with the fans?
Further, UM is desperate for game revenue, so it would be a foolish venture to have the games without fans and likely lose money.

 

[horribilisfan8184]

Someone age 40, died in Billings yesterday.

I don't dispute that. He was unfortunately one of the 1.7% of people in his age bracket that could die from this virus. I have never claimed that not a single person that age could die. I said people that age are barely at risk, and all the stats back that up.

Furthermore, we don't know who this guy was so it's tough to speculate. But I'll be shocked if he didn't have underlying conditions like 99% of the people who die from this have.

I have yet to here of a single college athlete or professional athlete dying from this. Despite it being on every news outlet when one tests positive. Do you really believe college athletes in the best shape of their lives are at much if any risk? Nothing I have seen would suggest that.

The only players at risk are those with the underlying condition of being over-fed stimulant supplements or pork gravy. Lets play.

 

[ilovethecats]

The players certainly are a consideration. What about the fans? Does anyone really believe UM can go through multiple home games without a serious outbreak of the virus with the fans?
Further, UM is desperate for game revenue, so it would be a foolish venture to have the games without fans and likely lose money.

If they are high risk they can always stay home? Why on earth would they go to a football game if they were afraid of getting this virus?

If I was high risk, or even just very fearful, I wouldn't be anywhere NEAR a football game.

 

[ranco]

I don't dispute that. He was unfortunately one of the 1.7% of people in his age bracket that could die from this virus. I have never claimed that not a single person that age could die. I said people that age are barely at risk, and all the stats back that up.

Furthermore, we don't know who this guy was so it's tough to speculate. But I'll be shocked if he didn't have underlying conditions like 99% of the people who die from this have.

I have yet to here of a single college athlete or professional athlete dying from this. Despite it being on every news outlet when one tests positive. Do you really believe college athletes in the best shape of their lives are at much if any risk? Nothing I have seen would suggest that.

The virus is new and all of the long term complications aren’t known, are they? A wise man would wait for a vaccine before he allowed his son to play college football before spring.

That's the problem. Perhaps with a miracle, an effective vaccine will be developed in the next year. But the chances of that are very small. The virus will be around for a very long time. Waiting for a vaccine would mean that many kids would never have the opportunity to play college football. On average it takes 10-15 years to develop a vaccine and in many cases one is never developed. I might be a bit pessimistic on the vaccine issue, but I think that is the reality we face. Next spring or next fall may not be any better then it is currently.

 

[oldrunner]

The players certainly are a consideration. What about the fans? Does anyone really believe UM can go through multiple home games without a serious outbreak of the virus with the fans?
Further, UM is desperate for game revenue, so it would be a foolish venture to have the games without fans and likely lose money.

If they are high risk they can always stay home? Why on earth would they go to a football game if they were afraid of getting this virus?

If I was high risk, or even just very fearful, I wouldn't be anywhere NEAR a football game.

I understand your reasoning and on paper it might be sound. However, we are dealing with humans here, it could be too much to ask them to self regulate. I buy box seats for my parents every year. It's expensive but well worth it for them to be able to park close, ride the elevator and have seats out of the weather. They are in their 90s. I will advise them to not attend until there is a good vaccine. It might be more safe for them if all the fans are wearing masks and/or if there is some sort of distancing, but who knows what the plans are at this point. I work the games and will wear a mask. I'm sure that everyone will be wearing masks. Is it 100% sure that there will be no transmission? Of course not. That is why I say; 'leave it up to the ones who have the most knowledge and responsibility'. I'll do what they say, up to a point. Beyond that point, what ever it is, we all will make some personal choices.

 

[ilovethecats]

If they are high risk they can always stay home? Why on earth would they go to a football game if they were afraid of getting this virus?

If I was high risk, or even just very fearful, I wouldn't be anywhere NEAR a football game.

I understand your reasoning and on paper it might be sound. However, we are dealing with humans here, it could be too much to ask them to self regulate. I buy box seats for my parents every year. It's expensive but well worth it for them to be able to park close, ride the elevator and have seats out of the weather. They are in their 90s. I will advise them to not attend until there is a good vaccine. It might be more safe for them if all the fans are wearing masks and/or if there is some sort of distancing, but who knows what the plans are at this point. I work the games and will wear a mask. I'm sure that everyone will be wearing masks. Is it 100% sure that there will be no transmission? Of course not. That is why I say; 'leave it up to the ones who have the most knowledge and responsibility'. I'll do what they say, up to a point. Beyond that point, what ever it is, we all will make some personal choices.

I don't disagree with any of that. I think we all listen to the smart people who should know what they're talking about; up to a point. The thing is we all have different "points". For instance, I was completely against the lockdown. I thought it was very hurtful. And look at us now. We have way more cases than we did in March and April....yet we're wide open. We just wear masks. I still have yet to hear a good reason why masks are good enough now, but the lockdown was necessary then, you know, because we were told to lock down.

And I totally agree in regards to your parents. I'd advise mine to do the same thing. I have a box as well and those things can get packed with people coming and going. I'm very curious to see if those will even be an option this seasons. Or if they'll decrease the people allowed in them, or close the club level all together. Pretty much zero chance to distance up there, as I'm sure is the case in Wash-griz though I've never been up there.

I don't think my parents or grandparents will be going to games. I don't think my diabetic brother will either. And I don't blame them. I'd stay away.

The problem with waiting until there is a vaccine is that could take a while. And it's not like they are 100% effective either. Even fast-tracking this one, there is no way to know how many people it will work for, and what the side effects will be. We have a ton of vaccines right now, and people still die. Hell...we have a FLU vaccine and people still die from it. So I would hate for your parents to never watch their Griz play again because they refuse to do anything until a vaccine is available and always effective.

Good on you for taking care of your folks! :thumb:

 

[AZGrizFan]

doesn't mean much without knowing the populations of the states, and you know it. it seems you really have joined the cult of trump, who ignore the endless lies and exaggerations. thought you were smarter than that, but there you go. this graph shows the states with the biggest increases in cases recently, adjusted for population. other than montana, not too many states run by dems in the worst 20 or so states in this one,:

Place Total reported deaths per 100k New deaths in last 7 days per 100k Pct. change
Texas 21 5 +35%
Montana 5 1 +29%
South Carolina 32 6 +22%
Idaho 9 1 +19%
Florida 31 5 +18%
Arizona 50 7 +16%
Alaska 3 0 +16%
Virgin Islands 8 1 +14%
Puerto Rico 6 1 +14%
Alabama 32 4 +13%
Arkansas 14 2 +13%
Tennessee 15 2 +13%
Oregon 7 1 +12%
Oklahoma 13 1 +11%
Delaware 61 6 +10%
Utah 9 1 +10%
Mississippi 52 5 +10%
North Carolina 18 2 +10%
West Virginia 6 0 +9%
South Dakota 15 1 +8%
California 22 2 +8%
Nevada 26 2 +8%
Georgia 35 2 +7%
Kentucky 16 1 +6%
North Dakota 14 1 +6%
New Mexico 30 2 +6%
Louisiana 83 5 +6%
Kansas 12 1 +6%
Washington 21 1 +5%
Wisconsin 16 1 +5%
Missouri 20 1 +5%
Ohio 29 1 +5%
Iowa 27 1 +4%
Hawaii 2 0 +4%
Wyoming 4 0 +4%
Virginia 25 1 +4%
Nebraska 17 1 +3%
Maine 9 0 +3%
Minnesota 29 1 +2%
Maryland 58 1 +2%
Indiana 44 1 +2%
Colorado 33 1 +2%
New Hampshire 30 1 +2%
Pennsylvania 56 1 +1%
Illinois 60 1 +1%
Rhode Island 95 1 +1%
Massachusetts 125 1 +1%
District of Columbia 85 1 +1%
New Jersey 178 1 +1%
Michigan 64 0

Well of course you’d want to focus on “recent” because all the blue states fucked it up so bad in the beginning they killed off all the at-risk people early on. So regardless of how supposedly bad Texas has performed “recently”, here’s the current COMPLETE standings:

New Jersey 1787
New York 1682
Mass of two Shits 1241
Connecticut 1241
Rhode Island 951
Louisiana 836
DC 827
Michigan 643
Illinois 604
Delaware 597
Maryland 575
Pennsylvania 566
Mississippi 525
Arizona 475
USA AVERAGE 463
Indiana 436
Georgia 343
South Carolina 314
Alabama 314
Colorado 314
New Hampshire 301
New Mexico 299
Florida 295
Ohio 293
Minnesota 289
Iowa 268
Nevada 253
Virginia 249
California 221
Texas 209
Missouri 205
Washington 204
North Carolina 180
Nebraska 166
Kentucky 162
Wisconsin156
Tennessee 149
South Dakota 146
Arkansas 144
North Dakota 134
Oklahoma 132
Kansas 116
Utah 91
Idaho 90
Maine 90
Vermont 90
Oregon
West Virginia 74
Montana 62
Wyoming 45
Alaska 30
Hawaii 18

You gotta go a LONG way down that list before you find a Red state governed. So to put it in a slightly different perspective, Texas could have 1,000 people a DAY die for the next FOUR WEEKS, and STILL be behind New York in total deaths and deaths per million. And Texas’s “spike? PEAKED at 170 (on 7-day moving average) and is now on it’s way back down. NY’s peaked at 956.

But yeah, let’s focus on a little bump in the road because it makes the red states look bad and the blue states (who just killed off everyone early) look good, now.

 

[mcg]

I’m surprised that the UM administration apparently is still considering having any form of a football season. There are far too many health risks for everyone including players, coaches, staff, students, parents.

What, exactly, is the health risk to the players? The death rate for those under 25 has three zeros after the decimal point before you get to a crooked number.

The problem is that those players infected interact with other humans and infect them.

 

[Spanky2]

AzGrizfan, I agree with mcg. Also, when health risks are considered, deaths certainly are a factor along with the possible complications for the remainder of the student-athletes life. We know little about the virus, thus, the complications could be many and serious.