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Some Ask a Taboo Question: Is America Overreacting to Coronavirus?
- Thread starter PlayerRep
- Start date
11 cases in MT. None seem to be hospitalized. Half or more from traveling, and half or more fairly young.
US cases have accelerated in the last 4 or so days. To about 10,500. 160 deaths. 68 in WA. 99% mild. 1% serious or critical. 1114 new cases in NY. WA ma not have reported today.
US cases have accelerated in the last 4 or so days. To about 10,500. 160 deaths. 68 in WA. 99% mild. 1% serious or critical. 1114 new cases in NY. WA ma not have reported today.
Summary of the Imperial College London (world class university) analysis from Jeremy C Young of Utah. This is terrifying. Hoping things turn out better than this.
"We can now read the report on COVID-19 that so terrified every public health manager and head of state from Boris Johnson to Donald Trump to the dictator of El Salvador that they ordered people to stay in their houses. I read it yesterday afternoon and haven't been the same since. I urge everyone to read it, but maybe have a drink first, or have your family around you. It is absolutely terrifying. The New York Times confirms that the CDC and global leaders are treating it as factual.
Here's a brief rundown of what I'm seeing in here. Please correct me in comments if I'm wrong.
The COVID-19 response team at Imperial College in London obtained what appears to be the first accurate dataset of infection and death rates from China, Korea, and Italy. They plugged those numbers into widely available epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what would happen if the United States did absolutely nothing -- if we treated COVID-19 like the flu, went about business as usual, and let the virus take its course?
Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.
It gets worse. Most people who are in danger of dying from COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those put on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number of ventilators in the United States. Virtually no one who needed a ventilator would get one. 100% of patients who need ventilators would die if they didn't get one. So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.
How many people is 4 million Americans? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's four times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.
Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. So if we simply extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world -- now we're getting into really fuzzy estimates, so the margin of error is pretty great here -- this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19. That's 15 Holocausts. That's 1.5 times as many people as died in World War II, over 12 years. This would take 3-6 months.
Now, it's unrealistic to assume that countries wouldn't do ANYTHING to fight the virus once people started dying. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy. A mitigation strategy is pretty much what common sense would tell us to do: America places all symptomatic cases of the disease in isolation. It quarantines their families for 14 days. It orders all Americans over 70 to practice social distancing. This is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals.
And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by eight times, meaning most people who need ventilators still don't get them. That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two civil wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we use common sense: the worst death toll from a single cause since the Middle Ages.
Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers a third time, this time assuming a "suppression" strategy. In addition to isolating symptomatic cases and quarantining their family members, they also simulated social distancing for the entire population. All public gatherings and most workplaces shut down. Schools and universities close. (Note that these simulations assumed a realistic rate of adherence to these requirements, around 70-75% adherence, not that everyone follows them perfectly.) This is basically what we are seeing happen in the United States today.
This time it works! The death rate in the US peaks three weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit, but don't exceed (at least not by very much), the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear; COVID-19 goes down in the books as a bad flu instead of the Black Death.
But here's the catch: if we EVER relax these requirements before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before. The simulation does indicate that, after the first suppression period (lasting from now until July), we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by two more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. If we staggered these suppression breaks based on local conditions, we might be able to do a bit better. But we simply cannot ever allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen.
How quickly will a vaccine be here? Already, medical ethics have been pushed to the limit to deliver one. COVID-19 was first discovered a few months ago. Last week, three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for fourteen months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This is the part of the testing that can't be rushed: the plan is to inoculate the entire human population, so if the vaccine itself turned out to be lethal for some reason, it could potentially kill all humans, which is a lot worse than 90 million deaths. Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.
During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and our society will be disrupted in profound ways. Worst of all, if the suppression policies actually work, it will feel like we are doing all this for nothing, because the infection and death rates will be very low. It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do."
Jeremy C Young of Utah
Here is the link to the official report
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR16iNWsI2Sa7AB1yh5NTGy3_2q529qbRCU8gcvwJW5BSkmnh-5rp3y5A1g
"We can now read the report on COVID-19 that so terrified every public health manager and head of state from Boris Johnson to Donald Trump to the dictator of El Salvador that they ordered people to stay in their houses. I read it yesterday afternoon and haven't been the same since. I urge everyone to read it, but maybe have a drink first, or have your family around you. It is absolutely terrifying. The New York Times confirms that the CDC and global leaders are treating it as factual.
Here's a brief rundown of what I'm seeing in here. Please correct me in comments if I'm wrong.
The COVID-19 response team at Imperial College in London obtained what appears to be the first accurate dataset of infection and death rates from China, Korea, and Italy. They plugged those numbers into widely available epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what would happen if the United States did absolutely nothing -- if we treated COVID-19 like the flu, went about business as usual, and let the virus take its course?
Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.
It gets worse. Most people who are in danger of dying from COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those put on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number of ventilators in the United States. Virtually no one who needed a ventilator would get one. 100% of patients who need ventilators would die if they didn't get one. So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.
How many people is 4 million Americans? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's four times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.
Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. So if we simply extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world -- now we're getting into really fuzzy estimates, so the margin of error is pretty great here -- this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19. That's 15 Holocausts. That's 1.5 times as many people as died in World War II, over 12 years. This would take 3-6 months.
Now, it's unrealistic to assume that countries wouldn't do ANYTHING to fight the virus once people started dying. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy. A mitigation strategy is pretty much what common sense would tell us to do: America places all symptomatic cases of the disease in isolation. It quarantines their families for 14 days. It orders all Americans over 70 to practice social distancing. This is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals.
And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by eight times, meaning most people who need ventilators still don't get them. That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two civil wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we use common sense: the worst death toll from a single cause since the Middle Ages.
Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers a third time, this time assuming a "suppression" strategy. In addition to isolating symptomatic cases and quarantining their family members, they also simulated social distancing for the entire population. All public gatherings and most workplaces shut down. Schools and universities close. (Note that these simulations assumed a realistic rate of adherence to these requirements, around 70-75% adherence, not that everyone follows them perfectly.) This is basically what we are seeing happen in the United States today.
This time it works! The death rate in the US peaks three weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit, but don't exceed (at least not by very much), the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear; COVID-19 goes down in the books as a bad flu instead of the Black Death.
But here's the catch: if we EVER relax these requirements before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before. The simulation does indicate that, after the first suppression period (lasting from now until July), we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by two more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. If we staggered these suppression breaks based on local conditions, we might be able to do a bit better. But we simply cannot ever allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen.
How quickly will a vaccine be here? Already, medical ethics have been pushed to the limit to deliver one. COVID-19 was first discovered a few months ago. Last week, three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for fourteen months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This is the part of the testing that can't be rushed: the plan is to inoculate the entire human population, so if the vaccine itself turned out to be lethal for some reason, it could potentially kill all humans, which is a lot worse than 90 million deaths. Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.
During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and our society will be disrupted in profound ways. Worst of all, if the suppression policies actually work, it will feel like we are doing all this for nothing, because the infection and death rates will be very low. It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do."
Jeremy C Young of Utah
Here is the link to the official report
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR16iNWsI2Sa7AB1yh5NTGy3_2q529qbRCU8gcvwJW5BSkmnh-5rp3y5A1g
If this is true, and I've seen similar things before, then why should we should shut down so much business/jobs and go through the economic devastation too?
"80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself."
"80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself."
PlayerRep said:
No easy answers to any of this. I agree that this is going to be devastating to the global economy. I’ll be happy if I survive this with a job.Moving some of Big Dog's post to this thread, to keep UM recruiting threader cleaner:
Big Dog: "Let me paint an even more dire picture for you.... Here’s the rub: this thing is just going to ebb & flow until the the vaccine and treatments are available. Witness the f&*kheads in the bars, those calling it a hoax or the gen stupids who are on the beaches in Florida. Flattening the proverbial curve is an attempt to stave off what would happen to established medical systems should things spiral out of control like they did in Italy & other places.
My friends in the business of medicine are pointing to a recently published Harvard study that’s predicting potentially eighteen or more months of on/off chaos until a hoped for vaccine is available & the population can be successfully inoculated. What happens if 2020 is lost entirely and it’s 2021 before they get back into schools safely? Not wishing this on anyone, but let’s stop pretending that what’s going on now to address this problem is an overreaction. We aren’t going back to normal even when this thing is over."
Virtually all beaches in Florida are closed, except the Keys.
There are no cases in the Keys yet.
Big Dog: "Let me paint an even more dire picture for you.... Here’s the rub: this thing is just going to ebb & flow until the the vaccine and treatments are available. Witness the f&*kheads in the bars, those calling it a hoax or the gen stupids who are on the beaches in Florida. Flattening the proverbial curve is an attempt to stave off what would happen to established medical systems should things spiral out of control like they did in Italy & other places.
My friends in the business of medicine are pointing to a recently published Harvard study that’s predicting potentially eighteen or more months of on/off chaos until a hoped for vaccine is available & the population can be successfully inoculated. What happens if 2020 is lost entirely and it’s 2021 before they get back into schools safely? Not wishing this on anyone, but let’s stop pretending that what’s going on now to address this problem is an overreaction. We aren’t going back to normal even when this thing is over."
Virtually all beaches in Florida are closed, except the Keys.
There are no cases in the Keys yet.
The Young report is very disturbing and can't be taken lightly. What it fails to account for (outside of taking emergent precautions now), is the fact that companies will mobilize to manufacture vastly more ventilators and the care for the patients will improve as more is learned about the virus. This does point to the fact that we need to blunt this as best we can now, until those improvements are developed.
My wife is a retired RN and one of our best friends is an ER doc here locally. This is a life changing event.66volvo said:
The ER doc says the biggest problem he see's is that it takes so long to get test results back. He asks people to "self quarantine" for a 4 - 5 days or longer until the test results come back so they leave, stop at the store or do whatever they think needs to be done before they even go home....And then some just say screw it.....and do whatever they want anyway...
66volvo said:
How was US caught flat-footed two months ago?
Dec. 31 - Chinese officials in Wuhan first say something
Jan. 30 - WHO announces world health emergency
Jan. 31 - Trumps halts flights from China
Feb. 14 - first death outside of Asia, an 80 year Chinese tourist in France
Feb. 20 - first US death announced, WA
Feb. 29 - Trump announces additional travel restrictions
March 3 - Bodnar announces UM virus preparation plan
March 8 - Italy announces lock down in north
March 10 - US cases exceed 1,000. Half of all cases then in WA, CA and NY. 28 deaths in US then.
March 11 - WHO calls it a pandemic
March 12 - NBA suspends season
March 13 - Trump announces state of emergency to free up $50 billion in funds
March 13 - first 4 cases in MT announced
March 19 - MT has 11/12 cases. None appear to be in hospital. 773 have been tested. 761 negative,
sdk.catfish
Well-known member
Not to be contentious PR but go back to your Ivy League spring practice cancelled thread where you said you called them a bunch of wimps for cancelling spring ball (doesn't seem quite so important now does it). So does that make you a F****khead as well?
Or are you now like our so called president and the F****khead Fox News actors who have miraculously been converted. The problem is when you surround yourself with science denying, ass kissing dullards, this is quite a predictable outcome. Did you listen to the Joe Rogen #1439 podcast I posted yesterday - all foretold. Not that it still wouldn't have happened but this nation, as well as other nations could have been much better prepared had not head been shoved up butt. If nations had worked together it could have had a different outcome but when you alienate other nations in a MAGA rant, initiate trade wars, insult other nations communication and cooperation become difficult. Virus's as well as climate change don't give a shit about nations or boundaries. How about we had spent the billions building a wall, which will do nothing to protect us, on producing the required stockpile of health related products needed now. Jeez, I'm sure you are a fine person but quit watching Fox news and maybe volunteer or donate at your local foodbank which really needs your help right now.
sdk.catfish said:
I never said spring ball was important. I said there was no reason to cancel it. I still think the cancellation will have zero affect on the virus spreading. If anything, it will increase the chances of the spreading, as more of those guys will have gone on spring break and now will be at home, with their parents and grandparents.
Are you okay with the economic carnage occurring in the US, MT and world? Is all of that necessary?
People like you don't do any analysis, gather or pay attention to data or science, and just throw mud at the wall. And you can't support what you say. You just blab.
I think college football teams, i.e, the players, are going to try to organize PRP's, if they can figure that out, by the way.
You continue to show what an idiot you are.
sdk.catfish
Well-known member
PR - I think for rational people it is becoming quite apparent who the idiots are. Carry on in your shrinking world
sdk.catfish said:
Um , Let's see . We get 95% of our antibiotics from china. Most of the junk we buy is made in china . The so called inaite trade war .it's meant to bring manufacturing back to the US. President Trump's trade war has one purpose. The best interest of America.
Perhaps you would like to rely on China for everything.
The idiots on both sides of the aisle dating back to the sixties sold out to foreign interests. That's when the decline started .let's put it in perspective, I have a refrigerator at my shop from the early sixties. Runs like a top still . Made in the USA .We built our house 8 years ago , all new appliances. We bought so called " Top of the line " on our second stove , fridge and microwave. Great Chinese products . I'd pay a little more now knowing I'd get a better product.
.
I've been saying this for years. We are a nation of consumers not producers.
There is nothing wrong with wanting America to be self sufficient. Look at "Oil " we are the largest net oil exporter and we have low gas prices. Crazy how that works.
By your reasoning why even have competition. Let's ban all score boards. Just imagine if the space race never happened.
My guess is your dresser is full of participation trophies your mom made for ya.
I'm with PR when he says you are an idiot
sdk.catfish
Well-known member
TCC - I believe you will find yourself in the same shrinking world as PR. You can donate or volunteer - that would be far more productive. Our retirement savings have lost $50,000 after Monday. The first thing my wife and I did was to go to food share and give them a cash donation. If you think that is idiotic so be it. Maybe you should think more about your community than yourself. Carry on
SaskGriz said:
Dude , I have been acquiring my stockpile for years . Has nothing to do with the flu ( not sure how you came up with that )
Try this , go back and reread your post . Then reread PR's . Tell me which one states facts and which one is a rant .
BTW, Pick up a history book and read about Stalin , Mao and Hitler and tell me if the 2nd amendment is about geese !
I'll again refer to PR's comment .
