Some Ask a Taboo Question: Is America Overreacting to Coronavirus?

[PlayerRep]

The answer is both yes and no. Americans are greatly overestimating their personal risk of the virus.

But the actions implemented to slow the spread of the disease is far from an overreaction. And extremely clear data from China prove it.

These steps will in no way stop the spread of the virus, but they're not intended to. They are intended to greatly slow the spread. Look at the daily trend lines for new cases in China. After they implemented their draconian policies, new cases dropped from 3,000 a day to less than 100. That's what our policies are intended to do. And if we fail, and a month from now that 3,000 new cases a day number has jumped to 30,000, we'll absolutely overwhelm our healthcare infrastructure.

Precisely, if the current measures help flatten this curve and don't overwhelm our medical system, especially if it can be accomplished in a somewhat quicker timeline, I'm all for it.

Personally I'm not too worried about this virus, what I am worried about though is my parents, and especially my dad who falls into quite a few of the risk categories where the rate of death is in the 15% range. That scares the hell out of me, especially that someone like myself or my kids, could pass it to him or others like him, without knowing at all.

Don't think any of MT's 8 cases are in the hospital, yet. Can you put 62, Spanky, Kem and me in your parent/worry category.

 

[AZGrizFan]

I get it's a balancing act but when government for any reason starts limiting freedom of association or movement, we should all be worried.

NY Times article:

"For Some Buyers With Virus Fears, the Priority Isn’t Toilet Paper. It’s Guns.

Gun shops and ammunition dealers say they’ve seen a surge in purchases, particularly from first-time buyers."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/coronavirus-gun-buyers.html

A garage full of liquor and ammo will take you a lot farther than a garage full of TP.

You know how many people gave me a bad time for buying 3 years of dehydrated food that last 30 + years .
My wife feels pretty safe now that I told her we own 100 thousand rounds of ammo.
Whole house generator and 1000 gal propane tank.
I don't even consider myself a prepper either , just somewhat prepared.
Kinda like keeping your gas tank above 3/4 at all times , or jumper cables , a blanket and a small stash of food in the veichle as well .
Plus keeping the pantry and freezer full.

Couldn't agree more...although I'm somewhat behind you in terms of "preparation"...

 

[Da Boyz Mom]

I'm only in my early fifties but I am considered high risk due to being immunocompromised by some of my medications, and yet even I poo-poohed the whole thing at the beginning, and thought it was all overkill. After reading a number of articles which explained the whole concept and the devastation that could occur if we did nothing, (and the fact that my rheumatologist chewed me out yesterday) I changed my tune. I am now holed up in my house for the duration. The other members of my household are going to have to do all the shopping. Bummer.

 

[PlayerRep]

This NYT article has a great interactive chart for comparing the CV to other diseases and causes of death in US. Just slide the two balls for the percentage assumptions back and forth.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/16/upshot/coronavirus-best-worst-death-toll-scenario.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

[Spanky2]

The answer is both yes and no. Americans are greatly overestimating their personal risk of the virus.

But the actions implemented to slow the spread of the disease is far from an overreaction. And extremely clear data from China prove it.

These steps will in no way stop the spread of the virus, but they're not intended to. They are intended to greatly slow the spread. Look at the daily trend lines for new cases in China. After they implemented their draconian policies, new cases dropped from 3,000 a day to less than 100. That's what our policies are intended to do. And if we fail, and a month from now that 3,000 new cases a day number has jumped to 30,000, we'll absolutely overwhelm our healthcare infrastructure.

Precisely, if the current measures help flatten this curve and don't overwhelm our medical system, especially if it can be accomplished in a somewhat quicker timeline, I'm all for it.

Personally I'm not too worried about this virus, what I am worried about though is my parents, and especially my dad who falls into quite a few of the risk categories where the rate of death is in the 15% range. That scares the hell out of me, especially that someone like myself or my kids, could pass it to him or others like him, without knowing at all.

Don't think any of MT's 8 cases are in the hospital, yet. Can you put 62, Spanky, Kem and me in your parent/worry category.

We are unchartered territory with this virus. All Americans will have to show tremendous strength and understanding to get through this on several fronts.

 

[VictorG]

I can't find any stats from Russia and several African countries. It appears they are not reporting anything so the totals are likely much higher. Especially in Russia.

https://www.kgun9.com/coronavirus/map-coronavirus-covid-19-global-cases

However, looking down the list of countries it appears there is a new country named "Cruise Ship" and it has 696 cases......

 

[PlayerRep]

I can't find any stats from Russia and several African countries. It appears they are not reporting anything so the totals are likely much higher. Especially in Russia.

https://www.kgun9.com/coronavirus/map-coronavirus-covid-19-global-cases

However, looking down the list of countries it appears there is a new country named "Cruise Ship" and it has 696 cases......

On this site, Russia reports only 33 cases and no deaths.

There are some African countries listed, with few cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

[PlayerRep]

Is flattening curve anything more than slowing done the rate of infection, keeping hospital beds and resources available, and hoping for good news as the weather warms, as well as waiting for new immunization?

Or, does flattening the curve also mean, stopping the spread of new cases?

I saw an article saying that 10% to 60% (or 80%) of Americans are going to get the virus over time. This wasn't a worst case scenario article. I can't find the article now, but will work later.

Anyway, what stops this virus?

 

[VictorG]

I can't find any stats from Russia and several African countries. It appears they are not reporting anything so the totals are likely much higher. Especially in Russia.

https://www.kgun9.com/coronavirus/map-coronavirus-covid-19-global-cases

However, looking down the list of countries it appears there is a new country named "Cruise Ship" and it has 696 cases......

On this site, Russia reports only 33 cases and no deaths.

There are some African countries listed, with few cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Anything on North Korea?


Thanks!!

 

[Spanky2]

Is flattening curve anything more than slowing done the rate of infection, keeping hospital beds and resources available, and hoping for good news as the weather warms, as well as waiting for new immunization?

Or, does flattening the curve also mean, stopping the spread of new cases?

I saw an article saying that 10% to 60% (or 80%) of Americans are going to get the virus over time. This wasn't a worst case scenario article. I can't find the article now, but will work later.

Anyway, what stops this virus?

It doesn’t appear that anything stops this virus. Many people that get it recover, however, some with existing conditions don’t recover. They are working to develop medication to treat the virus which could be within a few months. Also, maybe a year away, hopefully, there will be a vaccine.

 

[grizindabox]

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

You are welcome.

 

[sdk.catfish]

If you have a spare hour and a half, and who among us doesn't at this point, this Joe Rogan podcast # 1439 is very interesting. As long as you aren't afraid of some actual science you can make it though. Interesting part on chronic wasting as well for deer hunters. No preconceived political agenda that I can detect. It seems quite possible that current alcohol and ammo stashes will be inadequate.

For some reason I can't make the hyperlink active when I copy into this format, and I don't see a button to turn it into a hyperlink, so you need to copy and paste the link into your browser and move the slider back to the beginning.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw

Dr. Osterholm is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota. He is also a member of the National Academy of Medicine (NAM) and the Council of Foreign Relations. In June 2005 Dr. Osterholm was appointed by Michael Leavitt, Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), to the newly established National Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity. In July 2008, he was named to the University of Minnesota Academic Health Center’s Academy of Excellence in Health Research. In October 2008, he was appointed to the World Economic Forum Working Group on Pandemics.

 

[sdk.catfish]

Just a followup on my post, egriz miraculously turned the link into a real link so no copy paste is needed. Sorry for my techno ingorance

 

[argh!]

pennsylvania closed all their liquor stores, which means their ERs are now going to be overrun with people suffering the dt's, mixing in with other patients. incredibly stupid.

 

[ordigger]

Is flattening curve anything more than slowing done the rate of infection, keeping hospital beds and resources available, and hoping for good news as the weather warms, as well as waiting for new immunization?

Or, does flattening the curve also mean, stopping the spread of new cases?

I saw an article saying that 10% to 60% (or 80%) of Americans are going to get the virus over time. This wasn't a worst case scenario article. I can't find the article now, but will work later.

Anyway, what stops this virus?

I’ve been in the minority saying flattening the curve will not work. I believe we need to be very aggressive who stopping the curve. This would mean curfews, and a total shutdown on everything for 30 days.

IMO from a mathematical standpoint, the flattening of the curve will not work like it did with the 1918 Spanish Flu. Researchers are now saying you can be reinfected.

The intent of flattening the curve is to prevent our healthcare system from being crushed, however as Italy is learning- the “flattened” curve merely slows down the growth, and eventually healthcare is overwhelmed anyway, but now the virus will have been extended over many months vs many weeks.

Now a group of health researchers are in agreement that flattening the curve may not be the best approach.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/health/coronavirus-uk-model-study/index.html

 

[PlayerRep]

I can't find any stats from Russia and several African countries. It appears they are not reporting anything so the totals are likely much higher. Especially in Russia.

https://www.kgun9.com/coronavirus/map-coronavirus-covid-19-global-cases

However, looking down the list of countries it appears there is a new country named "Cruise Ship" and it has 696 cases......

On this site, Russia reports only 33 cases and no deaths.

There are some African countries listed, with few cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Anything on North Korea?


Thanks!!

North Korea is reporting no cases. That is partially true. They execute patients, sometimes with rockets. Ha.

 

[CDAGRIZ]

I can't find any stats from Russia and several African countries. It appears they are not reporting anything so the totals are likely much higher. Especially in Russia.

https://www.kgun9.com/coronavirus/map-coronavirus-covid-19-global-cases

However, looking down the list of countries it appears there is a new country named "Cruise Ship" and it has 696 cases......

On this site, Russia reports only 33 cases and no deaths.

There are some African countries listed, with few cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Anything on North Korea?


Thanks!!

North Korea is reporting no cases. That is partially true. They execute patients, sometimes with rockets. Ha.

I read a report out of North Korea that Kim Jong can personally cure anyone who is infected. I'm not sure if it's true.

 

[fanofzoo]

On this site, Russia reports only 33 cases and no deaths.

There are some African countries listed, with few cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Anything on North Korea?


Thanks!!

North Korea is reporting no cases. That is partially true. They execute patients, sometimes with rockets. Ha.

I read a report out of North Korea that Kim Jong can personally cure anyone who is infected. I'm not sure if it's true.

Yes quit true that he can cure people but try to find them, "dead men tell no tales".

 

[grizghost]

Is flattening curve anything more than slowing done the rate of infection, keeping hospital beds and resources available, and hoping for good news as the weather warms, as well as waiting for new immunization?

Or, does flattening the curve also mean, stopping the spread of new cases?

I saw an article saying that 10% to 60% (or 80%) of Americans are going to get the virus over time. This wasn't a worst case scenario article. I can't find the article now, but will work later.

Anyway, what stops this virus?

...drug chloroquine testing is looking promising used for malaria and has been around since ww2..
one only can hope!

 

[TCCGRIZ]

pennsylvania closed all their liquor stores, which means their ERs are now going to be overrun with people suffering the dt's, mixing in with other patients. incredibly stupid.

Mayor of Baltimore asked citizens to stop shooting each other, they need the hospital beds for the sick .