BillingsMafia
Well-known member
Effects of a word wide economic depression will be 100 times worse than the effects of the virus. That's what scares me.
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Some Ask a Taboo Question: Is America Overreacting to Coronavirus?
- Thread starter PlayerRep
- Start date
firmgriz said:
I personally think the flattening of the curve will not help long term, and yes I’ve seen the examples. There are two problems, first it extends how long this will last as we are taking steps to extend it. And second, and what seems to be ignored is flattening the curve assumes that nobody gets it again, in the models I’ve seen; yet we are now seeing dozens of cases where in fact people can keep getting it thus IMO never flattening the curve, but having the opposite affect as the curve will slow but keep building eventually overwhelming the healthcare system anyway. Italy is going through this exact scenario now.
Ask yourself, do you want healthcare to be overwhelmed for the short term, like in China, where they were aggressive? Or like Italy where they get more overwhelmed every day, and will be for months?
firmgriz said:
To be fair, you nailed it earlier in the thread and were succinct than I was. :thumb:
This was on my face book feed. It claims it is from a Dr in Plentywood. I think sums it up pretty good.
Dr Martha Lauster
“When the coronavirus outbreak first started, I asked myself what the big difference was between this virus and the influenza virus. As more information has come to light, I have answered this question for myself, and I hope I’m able to answer it for any of you who wonder the same thing.
Here we go...stay with me!
I have learned that while influenza infects 30-40% of the people who come into contact with the virus, coronavirus infects about 70% (and it seems to favor the elderly and those with immune systems that don’t fight off infection well, which influenza also does). So let’s do the math. Suppose influenza sweeps through Plentywood, which we’ll say has 2000 people because the math is easier that way. 35% of people will catch it, so that means 700 people—a lot, and all in just a few-week period. And the death rate for influenza is about 3%, which means that of those 700, 21 are likely to die. Now, let’s look at coronavirus. In a town of 2000, where people are mixing and mingling freely, 70% will catch the virus if it sweeps through. That’s 1400 people. The death rate for coronavirus so far is 3-4%, so that means 50 people are likely to die.
NOW—surely there are more people than just those 50 who will need hospitalization, right? Because most of those hospitalized with coronavirus don’t die. That means that more than 50 people in Plentywood will require hospitalization. How many? 100? 150?
Do you know how many beds we have in our hospital? 13. Do you know how many breathing machines we have here? Maybe 2...I’m not even sure.
Do you know how many ICU beds (hospital beds with breathing machines for respiratory support) there are in the state of Montana? I just learned this—it’s about 440.
SO. The fewer people who catch this virus, and the more spread out over time we infect each other with it (by staying home more, canceling sporting events, canceling trips, and so on), maybe 50 people in Plentywood will still die (Lord, I sure hope not)...but everyone who needs hospital care can get it if they trickle in one or two at a time. If 50 (or 100...or 150) people come banging on the door of our hospital, we are sunk. And there’s nowhere to send them, because there are so few critical care beds in the state.
As important as all the above is this: does this mean you should panic? NO. It means you should be sensible and thoughtful. Asking people to avoid a sporting event is a bummer, sure. Are they being asked to stay home because everyone is hysterical? NO. They are being asked to stay home to slow the spread of this virus. Anyone out there getting hysterical has their own self to blame for that. No one gets hysterical (or any other emotion) without giving themselves permission to.
One last thing—we know how the virus behaved in China, but we aren’t in China, and we aren’t Chinese. How the virus behaves here may be different and the numbers above may change. If they do, I would urge you not to take it as proof that someone was lying to you at first, but rather that as more data comes in, we have a better idea of how the virus will behave here in the US.”
Dr Martha Lauster
“When the coronavirus outbreak first started, I asked myself what the big difference was between this virus and the influenza virus. As more information has come to light, I have answered this question for myself, and I hope I’m able to answer it for any of you who wonder the same thing.
Here we go...stay with me!
I have learned that while influenza infects 30-40% of the people who come into contact with the virus, coronavirus infects about 70% (and it seems to favor the elderly and those with immune systems that don’t fight off infection well, which influenza also does). So let’s do the math. Suppose influenza sweeps through Plentywood, which we’ll say has 2000 people because the math is easier that way. 35% of people will catch it, so that means 700 people—a lot, and all in just a few-week period. And the death rate for influenza is about 3%, which means that of those 700, 21 are likely to die. Now, let’s look at coronavirus. In a town of 2000, where people are mixing and mingling freely, 70% will catch the virus if it sweeps through. That’s 1400 people. The death rate for coronavirus so far is 3-4%, so that means 50 people are likely to die.
NOW—surely there are more people than just those 50 who will need hospitalization, right? Because most of those hospitalized with coronavirus don’t die. That means that more than 50 people in Plentywood will require hospitalization. How many? 100? 150?
Do you know how many beds we have in our hospital? 13. Do you know how many breathing machines we have here? Maybe 2...I’m not even sure.
Do you know how many ICU beds (hospital beds with breathing machines for respiratory support) there are in the state of Montana? I just learned this—it’s about 440.
SO. The fewer people who catch this virus, and the more spread out over time we infect each other with it (by staying home more, canceling sporting events, canceling trips, and so on), maybe 50 people in Plentywood will still die (Lord, I sure hope not)...but everyone who needs hospital care can get it if they trickle in one or two at a time. If 50 (or 100...or 150) people come banging on the door of our hospital, we are sunk. And there’s nowhere to send them, because there are so few critical care beds in the state.
As important as all the above is this: does this mean you should panic? NO. It means you should be sensible and thoughtful. Asking people to avoid a sporting event is a bummer, sure. Are they being asked to stay home because everyone is hysterical? NO. They are being asked to stay home to slow the spread of this virus. Anyone out there getting hysterical has their own self to blame for that. No one gets hysterical (or any other emotion) without giving themselves permission to.
One last thing—we know how the virus behaved in China, but we aren’t in China, and we aren’t Chinese. How the virus behaves here may be different and the numbers above may change. If they do, I would urge you not to take it as proof that someone was lying to you at first, but rather that as more data comes in, we have a better idea of how the virus will behave here in the US.”
ordigger said:
The way people are bitching now, could you imagine the outcry if the US put the same restrictions in place that China did?
grizindabox said:
The point of the post, clearly, isn't to suggest they should or even could. The point is to show that the approach to greatly limiting contact works to slow the spread of the virus.
PlayerRep said:
the problem is that the ccp was obviously lying, as usual, about the transmission and severity of the illness. forbes and one other article analyzed their data, and they always had a nearly perfect ratio of infections vs death, 2.1%, reported daily for weeks. impossible with a human population. and do you really believe little old italy could have nearly as many deaths as all of china, in a much shorter time? the ccp and 'winnie the flu', aka xi jinping, are the dictatorial scum of the earth.
BillingsMafia said:
Agreed.
And all the low end and struggling elementary school kids who will get left further behind without good onsite help in the coming weeks or months. Many of them will never catch up. Early school years are critical times. My wife teaches 2d grade.
Not sure saving X older and already unhealthy people is worth the other costs. But I admit that I don’t know. Maybe I will be the first to go in MT.
I’m no epidemiologist, but to me, buying 19 cases of toilet paper is an overreaction. Cancelling events that involve large groups of people is not an overreaction.
grizturd said:
grizindabox said:
horribilisfan8184
Well-known member
I've not seen any estimates on total cases anywhere to date. All we get are numbers of confirmed cases and confirmed deaths. How many exposed do not get it. How many who get it show no symptoms? How many who get it show mild symptoms, or symptoms of a level not needing a trip to the ER? I don't think it would be exaggerating to suggest we have a hundred to a thousand times more people with the virus in the world than have been confirmed through tests. Some day we will know, and about all we can conclude is that the internet and by-the-second reporting of every new positive test and death, turned politicians and the cellphone generation into frenetic fools.
To address reality for a second, it sucks we have such low numbers of ventilators and beds. Maybe the Billings Clinic can put some of the Classic proceeds to new machines and beds instead of new grandiose wings for botox withdrawal patients in honor to the latest CEO leaving with an 8 figure parachute.
To address reality for a second, it sucks we have such low numbers of ventilators and beds. Maybe the Billings Clinic can put some of the Classic proceeds to new machines and beds instead of new grandiose wings for botox withdrawal patients in honor to the latest CEO leaving with an 8 figure parachute.
grizindabox said:
Not true. If a depression develops, economies collapse, a large number of companies go bankrupt, poverty increases significantly, governments don’t have funds to pay for needed social programs, etc, the price will likely to be judged to have been way too high.
Also, it may not be provable that certain actions did any good.
I still say that cancelling spring football probably does more harm than good.
