Should football be cancelled If too many players test positive for colds and flu?

[horribilisfan8184]

This is the reality of the data. Cases are up (duh cumulative cases are always going to go up) and in some states like Florida even if the percentage of positive tests is going up the death rate is going down and the hospitalizations are down 44% since April, because young people are testing positives and almost none of them have had serious issues.

I don’t have the answers and I don’t think you do either. You used the word almost which would suggest that some of them have had serious issues.
Many of the people on this board continue to compare the virus to flu and pneumonia. There is a vaccine for both. Nothing for the virus.

Check CDC stats. When they do guess right on which flu vaccine to use, at best the rate of preventing hospitalizations is 40-60%. When they guess wrong the flu wreaks havoc on the elderly in this country. When they do guess right, the flu wreaks havoc on 40%-60% of the people who have received the vaccine, especially the elderly. People with and without the flu vaccine die every year in large numbers. It is not a disease preventative like measles or small pox or polio inoculations. There likely will be no "panacea" vaccine for this virus. The end situation for vaccines for this virus will more likely be no different than the flu.

So lets speculate. If the CDC comes out tomorrow and says we now have a great vaccine that works at curbing covid hospitalizations in the same range as the "correct" flu vaccine, will the press and politicians cheer this news or tell us we still need to crash the economy with restrictions that were never put in place for the flu, because the vaccine is not good enough, and leaving 40-60% of the highest risk population needing hospitalization is not acceptable? Bank on it. The control of our lives conceded to the press and politicians in this mess will not be given back by them voluntarily with a smile. Especially when there are so many voices willing to try to shame people who buck the government and its experts and their draconian solutions. Weathermen and women world wide are rejoicing that they are have been replaced by covid experts as the single most inaccurate predictors in the world.

 

[AZGrizFan]

Based off some recent research I’ve been doing and the recent death trends/case trends, I’d say it’s trending very favorably for the “panic” portion of the pandemic to have worn out it’s welcome by mid-August.

Daily deaths down 90% since 4/21.
7 day moving average of deaths down 72% since 4/21
Weekly deaths down for 8 straight weeks

All in the face of new “hot spots” popping up in a few spots around the country. The new cases seem to be skewed towards the younger, healthier generation and the death rate has dropped dramatically. Either the virus is burning itself out or it’s been around a lot longer than previously thought...regardless, unless there’s a dramatic shift in the death curve/trends, I think it bodes well for fall/winter sports.

I will let you know that the number of deaths is not what is driving this bus. The number that will dictate what happens is the number of hospitalizations.

This is typical of the fear porn being spread by some folks on the interwebs…."Texas" isn't experiencing shit....a few local hotspots are seeing some slightly elevated numbers but the fear mongerers would like folks to think that things are on the verge of another complete shutdown....Not true. And that's just one of a number of states that are being viewed similarly.

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1275811660989521921?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

 

[grizindabox]

So lets speculate. If the CDC comes out tomorrow and says we now have a great vaccine that works at curbing covid hospitalizations in the same range as the "correct" flu vaccine, will the press and politicians cheer this news or tell us we still need to crash the economy with restrictions that were never put in place for the flu, because the vaccine is not good enough, and leaving 40-60% of the highest risk population needing hospitalization is not acceptable? Bank on it. The control of our lives conceded to the press and politicians in this mess will not be given back by them voluntarily with a smile. Especially when there are so many voices willing to try to shame people who buck the government and its experts and their draconian solutions. Weathermen and women world wide are rejoicing that they are have been replaced by covid experts as the single most inaccurate predictors in the world.

This is hogwash....but speculate away.

 

[Da Boyz Mom]

Hospitalization tracking information over time is difficult to find but I did locate a website that has been tracking this information.

https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project

If you look at hospitalizations by date it shows a graph that indicates that hospitalizations are down significantly since the peak. Of course certain places are showing spikes but that's often in places that avoided much impact at the beginning. It seems logical that most deaths take place in hospitals so if the number of deaths is falling, it would also seem true that hospitalizations are falling which seems to be the case.

I will let you know, with first hand knowledge, that hospitalizations is some areas are not going down, and are actually spiking up to levels from before. Why do you think that areas are enacting mandatory face coverings rules? Why did Ada County in Idaho move back a phase this week? Why are the reports of greater community spread becoming a big worry for governments/medical professionals?

Yeah I said that hospitalizations ARE rising in some places. I was talking about the national numbers obviously, because you brought up the fact that hospitalizations were more important than the number of deaths. So I gave you data to prove the hospitalizations were also falling nationwide along with the number of deaths.

 

[grizindabox]

I will let you know that the number of deaths is not what is driving this bus. The number that will dictate what happens is the number of hospitalizations.

This is typical of the fear porn being spread by some folks on the interwebs…."Texas" isn't experiencing shit....a few local hotspots are seeing some slightly elevated numbers but the fear mongerers would like folks to think that things are on the verge of another complete shutdown....Not true. And that's just one of a number of states that are being viewed similarly.

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1275811660989521921?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Trying to use a total number doesn't really work because the virus isn't the same at every place at the same time. The issue that will happen is even though Montana is in good shape, and football could happen with precautions, some areas won't be in the same situation. For example, even though Montana could possibly play today, there is a pretty good chance that teams from Washington or Oregon could not. Hell, NY, NJ, and Connecticut just imposed a 14 day quarantine period on visitors from a handful of other states.

 

[WaGriz4life]

So lets speculate. If the CDC comes out tomorrow and says we now have a great vaccine that works at curbing covid hospitalizations in the same range as the "correct" flu vaccine, will the press and politicians cheer this news or tell us we still need to crash the economy with restrictions that were never put in place for the flu, because the vaccine is not good enough, and leaving 40-60% of the highest risk population needing hospitalization is not acceptable? Bank on it. The control of our lives conceded to the press and politicians in this mess will not be given back by them voluntarily with a smile. Especially when there are so many voices willing to try to shame people who buck the government and its experts and their draconian solutions. Weathermen and women world wide are rejoicing that they are have been replaced by covid experts as the single most inaccurate predictors in the world.

This is hogwash....but speculate away.

According to Dr. Michael Osterholm, the infectious disease expert and advisor to all the presidents after Reagen until Trump, how they test the effectiveness of the flu vaccine is very flawed. The real number is it only works about 15% of the time on a good year. 5% on a normal year.

A vaccine is not going to save us, and we aren’t getting one anytime soon.

 

[ilovethecats]

I will let you know that the number of deaths is not what is driving this bus. The number that will dictate what happens is the number of hospitalizations.

This is typical of the fear porn being spread by some folks on the interwebs…."Texas" isn't experiencing shit....a few local hotspots are seeing some slightly elevated numbers but the fear mongerers would like folks to think that things are on the verge of another complete shutdown....Not true. And that's just one of a number of states that are being viewed similarly.

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1275811660989521921?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

I shared a similar CNN article on Bobcat Nation a few weeks ago. The article said that Montana experienced a "huge spike" in cases after opening up the economy. We had the most cases in a single day in a months time. Scary right?! In reality, the 7 new cases were all together in Hamilton and brought our total current cases from something like 12 to 22. But what is the fun in that?

This is happening in states all over. If you're not in the area and all you see are these headlines talking about "major spikes" or "second waves", you just accept it as truth and move on. Of course the people living there might have a different yarn to weave.... :lol:

 

[grizindabox]

I will let you know, with first hand knowledge, that hospitalizations is some areas are not going down, and are actually spiking up to levels from before. Why do you think that areas are enacting mandatory face coverings rules? Why did Ada County in Idaho move back a phase this week? Why are the reports of greater community spread becoming a big worry for governments/medical professionals?

Yeah I said that hospitalizations ARE rising in some places. I was talking about the national numbers obviously, because you brought up the fact that hospitalizations were more important than the number of deaths. So I gave you data to prove the hospitalizations were also falling nationwide along with the number of deaths.

Everyone keeps throwing the "national" thing out there, but do you really think that Yakima County Washington and Lincoln Nebraska are in the same situation? The National number makes things looks much better than it is in some areas.

 

[Da Boyz Mom]

Yeah I said that hospitalizations ARE rising in some places. I was talking about the national numbers obviously, because you brought up the fact that hospitalizations were more important than the number of deaths. So I gave you data to prove the hospitalizations were also falling nationwide along with the number of deaths.

Everyone keeps throwing the "national" thing out there, but do you really think that Yakima County Washington and Lincoln Nebraska are in the same situation? The National number makes things looks much better than it is in some areas.

Yes the nationwide data IS important to get an overall picture of what's happening. Otherwise to can cherry-pick data from anywhere and make it as good or bad as you want.

 

[WaGriz4life]

Everyone keeps throwing the "national" thing out there, but do you really think that Yakima County Washington and Lincoln Nebraska are in the same situation? The National number makes things looks much better than it is in some areas.

Yes the nationwide data IS important to get an overall picture of what's happening. Otherwise to can cherry-pick data from anywhere and make it as good or bad as you want.

Death rate is plummeting nationally. Hospitalizations way down also. People need to stop watching the news and look at the data.

 

[AZGrizFan]

This is typical of the fear porn being spread by some folks on the interwebs…."Texas" isn't experiencing shit....a few local hotspots are seeing some slightly elevated numbers but the fear mongerers would like folks to think that things are on the verge of another complete shutdown....Not true. And that's just one of a number of states that are being viewed similarly.

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1275811660989521921?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Trying to use a total number doesn't really work because the virus isn't the same at every place at the same time. The issue that will happen is even though Montana is in good shape, and football could happen with precautions, some areas won't be in the same situation. For example, even though Montana could possibly play today, there is a pretty good chance that teams from Washington or Oregon could not. Hell, NY, NJ, and Connecticut just imposed a 14 day quarantine period on visitors from a handful of other states.

The data drills down to the Houston area specifically. It's not a "total" number.

Here's a total number for the state of Washington:

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1275792055453679616?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

 

[AZGrizFan]

This is typical of the fear porn being spread by some folks on the interwebs…."Texas" isn't experiencing shit....a few local hotspots are seeing some slightly elevated numbers but the fear mongerers would like folks to think that things are on the verge of another complete shutdown....Not true. And that's just one of a number of states that are being viewed similarly.

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1275811660989521921?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

I shared a similar CNN article on Bobcat Nation a few weeks ago. The article said that Montana experienced a "huge spike" in cases after opening up the economy. We had the most cases in a single day in a months time. Scary right?! In reality, the 7 new cases were all together in Hamilton and brought our total current cases from something like 12 to 22. But what is the fun in that?

This is happening in states all over. If you're not in the area and all you see are these headlines talking about "major spikes" or "second waves", you just accept it as truth and move on. Of course the people living there might have a different yarn to weave.... :lol:

Well there's lies, damned lies, and then there's statistics. :lol:

 

[grizindabox]

Yes the nationwide data IS important to get an overall picture of what's happening. Otherwise to can cherry-pick data from anywhere and make it as good or bad as you want.

Death rate is plummeting nationally. Hospitalizations way down also. People need to stop watching the news and look at the data.

Well, lets just say that I may have some first hand knowledge of the hospitalizations in a certain area of Washington, and over the last 2 weeks it has spiked, and a certain regional hospital is at the set capacity for Covid cases.

 

[UncleRico]

Yeah I said that hospitalizations ARE rising in some places. I was talking about the national numbers obviously, because you brought up the fact that hospitalizations were more important than the number of deaths. So I gave you data to prove the hospitalizations were also falling nationwide along with the number of deaths.

Everyone keeps throwing the "national" thing out there, but do you really think that Yakima County Washington and Lincoln Nebraska are in the same situation? The National number makes things looks much better than it is in some areas.

Exactly. Dr Osterholm made an interesting statement in Meet The Press when he was asked about another wave. He dismissed this as going in "waves" and said it is more like a grasslands wildfire that is out of control. It will spread from place to place. Right now the Texas governor is encouraging everyone to stay home. Florida hit 5,500 cases yesterday. We in Montana are seeing a significant increase too. So like others have said with each state really setting it's own rules it will be a challenge to get on the same page. Is it going to be a priority in Oregon that Portland State plays? Doubtful..perhaps the Ducks and Beavs have resources and TV contracts to make it work. Same thing in Washington, Colorado and California. I think if Cats and Griz do play (which I hope) it could be an abbreviated schedule and/or a week by week thing. None of us know. Fauci said yesterday that the next couple of weeks are crucial and the rise in cases in parts of the country is very concerning.

 

[grizindabox]

But, I am kind of done. People are so polarized on this, that it is pretty useless to over debate. But to summarize from a sports perspective, the Griz will most likely play football, but I am not so sure that all their scheduled opponents will. I also won't be surprised if their are limitations on spectators and tailgating.

 

[Da Boyz Mom]

Death rate is plummeting nationally. Hospitalizations way down also. People need to stop watching the news and look at the data.

Well, lets just say that I may have some first hand knowledge of the hospitalizations in a certain area of Washington, and over the last 2 weeks it has spiked, and a certain regional hospital is at the set capacity for Covid cases.

Not to sound trite but so what? How many of those cases are college-age football players? (That is afterall the point of this thread.) Data has shown that young people are at very low risk from serious outcomes of this disease. Beating dead horses about how many cases you have in your community doesn't change that fact.

 

[PlayerRep]

Death rate is plummeting nationally. Hospitalizations way down also. People need to stop watching the news and look at the data.

Well, lets just say that I may have some first hand knowledge of the hospitalizations in a certain area of Washington, and over the last 2 weeks it has spiked, and a certain regional hospital is at the set capacity for Covid cases.

How does your first hand knowledge of WA hospitalizations differ from the El Gato tweet? edit: 6/23 info on the chart. What is it? The chart's last date shows a rate that has only been lower twice, for brief periods of time. Doesn't show any spike overall in WA.

 

[Da Boyz Mom]

But, I am kind of done. People are so polarized on this, that it is pretty useless to over debate. But to summarize from a sports perspective, the Griz will most likely play football, but I am not so sure that all their scheduled opponents will. I also won't be surprised if their are limitations on spectators and tailgating.

Well at least we agree on something! I am not so sure about spectators either, although I am so hoping that season ticket holders can still manage to attend. My sister has an extra season ticket and I have time and air miles.

 

[ilovethecats]

I don’t have an answer, but I don’t make light of a situation where people are on their death bed. If your family member was fighting for their life some of you might not have such cavalier attitudes.

I don't disagree with this at all. And while some may not be taking this seriously at all, I don't think that is the case with everyone. At least not me. I don't deny the virus is out there. I don't deny if you're older or have health issues it could be scarier than it is for me. But the stats are the stats. You're very unlikely to get this thing. You're very unlikely to be hospitalized if you do. And you're even less likely to die. And of those tiny numbers, as of yesterday the death rates are this:

younger than 35 - 0.8%
35-44 - 1.7%
45-54 - 4.8%
55-64 - 12%
65-74 - 20.8%
75-84 - 26.8%
older than 85 - 33.1%

So you have to see why many people just aren't so sure that shutting down the economy and closing schools was so wise. Why people putting off medical procedures wasn't a good thing. Why having to spend trillions of dollars like it's Monopoly money could really hurt us. It's why some, myself included, feel the cure may be worse than the cause?

I totally agree that if you had a family member fighting for their life you'd have a different attitude. Or at least a different experience. My point is that isn't this how it should be with every life, all of the time? If you had a daughter pass away and weren't allowed to have a funeral for her because it was "against the rules" would that change your perspective at all? How about when you weren't allowed to have a funeral but you saw rallies and parades? Or you couldn't have a funeral but there was a line wrapped around Walmart because that was deemed "essential" while your daughters life was not?

How about if you lost a brother or father to suicide? Would that not change your views on mental health? Or at least make you more aware of mental health issues than maybe you were previously? It might make you advocate for changes in mental healthcare. Would that make those that didn't lose a family member to suicide more selfish than you? I don't think so.

I don't have an issue with people being fearful of this virus. What I don't appreciate is being told I'm selfish or that I have no clue just how scary this virus is because I'm not as afraid of others. If you're afraid of getting this virus, by all means do everything in your power to avoid this virus. Don't go out, unless absolutely necessary. Definitely don't go to events like a football game. But why the need to tell me I should feel the same way? If you wear a mask and don't go out, you'll likely not be effected. If I go out all over the place and never wear a mask, I'll only effect those who decide to be in contact with me. The only way they'll do that is if they're going out!

Sometimes I just feel like people are talking about two completely different issues regarding this topic. And most likely not to change their minds. But I think the name calling and finger pointing when someone doesn't agree with your personal take isn't helping. Not you specifically, but just everyone. It's obviously one of the biggest topics of our lives though so I get it.

 

[Da Boyz Mom]

I don’t have an answer, but I don’t make light of a situation where people are on their death bed. If your family member was fighting for their life some of you might not have such cavalier attitudes.

I don't disagree with this at all. And while some may not be taking this seriously at all, I don't think that is the case with everyone. At least not me. I don't deny the virus is out there. I don't deny if you're older or have health issues it could be scarier than it is for me. But the stats are the stats. You're very unlikely to get this thing. You're very unlikely to be hospitalized if you do. And you're even less likely to die. And of those tiny numbers, as of yesterday the death rates are this:

younger than 35 - 0.8%
35-44 - 1.7%
45-54 - 4.8%
55-64 - 12%
65-74 - 20.8%
75-84 - 26.8%
older than 85 - 33.1%

So you have to see why many people just aren't so sure that shutting down the economy and closing schools was so wise. Why people putting off medical procedures wasn't a good thing. Why having to spend trillions of dollars like it's Monopoly money could really hurt us. It's why some, myself included, feel the cure may be worse than the cause?

I totally agree that if you had a family member fighting for their life you'd have a different attitude. Or at least a different experience. My point is that isn't this how it should be with every life, all of the time? If you had a daughter pass away and weren't allowed to have a funeral for her because it was "against the rules" would that change your perspective at all? How about when you weren't allowed to have a funeral but you saw rallies and parades? Or you couldn't have a funeral but there was a line wrapped around Walmart because that was deemed "essential" while your daughters life was not?

How about if you lost a brother or father to suicide? Would that not change your views on mental health? Or at least make you more aware of mental health issues than maybe you were previously? It might make you advocate for changes in mental healthcare. Would that make those that didn't lose a family member to suicide more selfish than you? I don't think so.

I don't have an issue with people being fearful of this virus. What I don't appreciate is being told I'm selfish or that I have no clue just how scary this virus is because I'm not as afraid of others. If you're afraid of getting this virus, by all means do everything in your power to avoid this virus. Don't go out, unless absolutely necessary. Definitely don't go to events like a football game. But why the need to tell me I should feel the same way? If you wear a mask and don't go out, you'll likely not be effected. If I go out all over the place and never wear a mask, I'll only effect those who decide to be in contact with me. The only way they'll do that is if they're going out!

Sometimes I just feel like people are talking about two completely different issues regarding this topic. And most likely not to change their minds. But I think the name calling and finger pointing when someone doesn't agree with your personal take isn't helping. Not you specifically, but just everyone. It's obviously one of the biggest topics of our lives though so I get it.

:clap: :thumb: :clap: :thumb: :clap: