Sac St prediction confusion

[PlayerRep]

Using Buckeye's "logic", AZ St beat SS by 12, AZ St lost to Colo. by 3, Colo lost to Oregon by 42, and UM lost to Oregon by only 32, so UM is 25 points better than SS.

Come on Buckeye, show us you know something about the game. Tell us why your O and D are better than the UM O and D.

What's your prediction PR? You don't seem the type to wade into these pregame arguments very often, a guy who seems to respect the opponent, especially one who seems to have a lot going for it heading into this Saturday's game. Are Griz D and O better than Sac St.? Is Sac's schedule and their relative scores really things you want to make a weakness? If so...what's the score prediction for Saturday? You know and played the game, you talk to coaches and go to practices. Give us an educated prediction.

A W.

I don't usually make predictions, and certainly point predictions, but the Griz are good and playing well. I just can't imagine that SS is good enough to beat the Griz this year if the Griz play well. While the Griz may not play well, and could have turnovers, they seem much improved this year, seemed to be focused, have more depth, and have shown they can not only finish games but can pull away in the second half.

I responded to this joker, because his only argument seemed that UM couldn't score lots of points on SS because only one other team had scored 30 on them this year. I thought that was a ridiculous think to base his whole argument on. Sure, SS could win, but I don't think they will. I think the D coaches will find a way to throw the SS qb off his game. They seem to have been able to do that against good qb's in prior games this year. I like the 151-50 stat, from the other thread. Hauck is known for that, except for last year. I think this team believes in itself.

We shall see.

 

[Diesel]

Sac State passes the eye test. They're also 6th in the massy rating and 9th in the sagarin.
One could argue Sac has lucked out a bit by playing over-rated ranked teams so far but they still beat them up on their home fields.

Based off the data we currently have this is a
matchup of two legit FCS teams that will have huge BigSky Title/Playoff implications.

This could easliy be one of the biggest games in Sac State history when you look at the ramifications for them.
A win for the Griz would also be a significant step in the process of restoring our status as an FCS powerhouse.

Gonna be a fun game.
Go GRIZ

The consensus is that this is the biggest game in Hornet history. It’s homecoming, the team is riding high, I don’t think there will be a letdown or lack of emotion with this Griz team coming in.

If we lose, it’ll be because the Griz were well-prepared coming off a bye week, and just outplayed up. Unlike pretty much every other Hornet team I’ve seen in the last 20 or so years, this one actually seems to have some testicular fortitude...

More pressure on Sac, in uncharted territory. It may take a few minutes to knock off the bye rust and travel however the Griz are dangerous.
Griz are playing very focused on the road this year.

 

[pussycatkillerz]

Griz are playing very focused on the road this year.

This.

I almost feel as confindant in the Griz on the road as at home.

 

[grizeyes]

Statistically looks like it could be a close game. IF the Griz play with the intensity and focus they have been and execute they will win going away. However, this game could come down to turnovers and mistakes, the team making thr fewest wins.

 

[uofmman1122]

Sac puts the ball on the ground a lot. They have 11 fumbles in 7 games (only lost 4, so far). Look for our guys to go after the ball a lot.

 

[mtgrizfankb]

When I break down Sac State this year. I think their stats are very misleading and they are hard to identify. Sac has a good defense make no mistake but their front line is really what makes them gel. I. The games they have played...their back end really was not tested in game plans as much as it should have been. Wait wait what about EWU...this was arguably the worst passing performance from the last 5 years from EWU and it wasn’t a scheme issue...it was a oline and accuracy issue. Also note sac state puts the ball on the ground an awful lot in these wins. Last week was the one game they didn’t. But 2 fumbles is pretty regular for them. I mentioned this stat the days before UC Davis...the also had this issue and they did vs us as well. Watch our D try and rip the ball out. Sac state has a great QB for their system. Similar to sneed....he can pass...he can run. They rely on him running an awful lot and they also rely on him making those runs to open the defense up. Expect our safety group to shadow him instead of a LB and expect Dante to really be in charge of organizing our personnel on the field this game.

Listen Sac State has talent...they actually always do. This year they have come together and played as a team. They are a good team, but there is some glaring holes on their team. They are inconsistent in the run game. They have a great RB that they only really truly utilize in the passing game. Their secondary has some weakness and they don’t have awesome safety play. The griz are going to blitz up the A and B and force Thompson to get outside. We would rather him run than pass. Offensively I expect a lot of quick passes in the first 2 series to try and set up some of those double move and streak looks vs these safeties. Get them to travel up and then beat them deep. If we have 70-80 yards rushing from not sneed...we will be in good shape. Sneed is gonna have pressure and our offense will rely on him making the smart play out of the box. Also Sac has some ST weakness that we will try and pry on.

Overall this game is such a toss up. After review, I’m not sold on sac state. If they could play together and not turn over the ball..they can play with this Griz team...being home will help. I actually am leaning toward the Griz in a UC Davis type of fashion game. Pressure lots. Give up some early. Adjust and defeat based upon sac state looks. I think we get down early 7-0 or so. Wouldn’t be surprised for a close or trailing game at half. 4th quarter I expect a good 2score lead and Sac will have to Get some breaks in this one.

Turn overs will be the difference maker. If we cough it up...that will be Sac’s chance. Take care of the ball.

 

[hilinegrizfan]

griz win by two td's

 

[DuCharme]

I like the 151-50 stat, from the other thread. Hauck is known for that, except for last year. I think this team believes in itself.

We shall see.

It’s actually 161-50.

 

[mcg]

One direction? What are you talking about?

SS has run up its points and TO against weak teams. Its scoring and offense are inflated.

UM has scored a zillion points against its FCS app;onents.

You think UM can't score 30 or 40 points against SS. How is SS going to stop UM? I say your only chance is turnovers.

Look what UM did to Davis' offense and great qb. That's why I'm thinking UM will do against SS.

Those FBS teams don't have good offenses. 92d and 70th in scoring. 29 and 25 points. 73d and 88th in TO. The best one averages just over 400 per game.

Want to bet me on whether UM scores more in first half against SS than Fresno did?

Yes, one way. You (and the original person I responded to) are suffering from confirmation bias. You're touting all of UM's opponents as legit while pronouncing Sac State's inferior. However, the Hornets have faced 2 FBS programs and 2 ranked FCS teams. That's 4 of the 6 games they've played.

I didn't at all factor in the D2 shut out when I cited their defensive performances. I only weighed their FBS/FCS opponents. Only one of those (UNC) was a low quality opponent.

So, again I ask. Since only one of those opponents scored over 30, why should anyone believe Montana is going to score 50??? UM is not clearly better than AZ ST or Fresno ST.

Since the original Griz fan I responded to based his entire logic on what the Sac State offense has scored against what he considered lesser opponents, I pointed out that the same logic could be applied to Sac State defense and the fact that UM isn't better than AZ ST or FSU.

But you seem to only want to look at it one way.

Listen, I'm not making any predictions or implying that Sac State will undoubtedly win. I have no idea. I'm merely hopeful they will win.

I'm just questioning the logic cited as to why Sac State couldn't possibly score as many points as some of the UM fans predicted in this thread then turning it around on those that are predicting the Griz to score 40 or 50 while ignoring the same logic they just used to justify half of their score prediction. It makes no sense at all.

Good post but I want to point out one problem: UNC is only a 'low quality opponent' when you play them, they are an 'emerging powerhouse' when we play them. Other wise your post is very good. I have no idea who will win, I'm rooting for the Griz, but that what I do.

 

[uofmman1122]

Idaho State had the #1 defense coming into our match with them, and had held ranked UNI and FBS Utah to 13 and 31, respectively. According to buckeye's logic, there's no way we could/should have scored 59 on ISU. South Dakota is the only FCS team to hold us under 40 points, and that had more to do with our team shooting itself in the foot, than anything USD was doing.

We might not score 50, but with Sac's suspect Pass D, I don't think it's a stretch to say that Sac might have to score 40+ points to win this game. There's a chance Sac could just completely shut us down, but there's no clear evidence that that's any more likely than us being able to blow the doors off of them.

I'm just excited to see a game that might finally tell us if our team is for real.

 

[pussycatkillerz]

Idaho State had the #1 defense coming into our match with them, and had held ranked UNI and FBS Utah to 13 and 31, respectively. According to buckeye's logic, there's no way we could/should have scored 59 on ISU.

The ISU game really showcased just how multifaceted our offense is. Stop our run, contain our QB/slot, now good luck with Akem/Toure.
So far, no team has had even the slightest awnser.

 

[Grizbeer]

Against D-1 teams Sac has averaged 31.8 points per game, and given up 20.2. On average they have held opponents to 8.45 ppg under their season average.

UM has scored an average of 41 ppg, and given up an average of 22.67 ppg, on average holding opponents to 7.9 ppg under average and scoring 14.8 ppg more than the opponents season average.

If Sac holds UM to 8.45 points under their average Griz should score 33 points. If Griz score 14.8 points more than Sac gives up on average Griz should score 35 points.

If UM holds Sac to 8 points under their average Sac should score 24. If the math holds Griz should win 33-24.

It will probably be 12-10 or 47-45 or something completely different.

 

[AZGrizFan]

Against D-1 teams Sac has averaged 31.8 points per game, and given up 20.2. On average they have held opponents to 8.45 ppg under their season average.

UM has scored an average of 41 ppg, and given up an average of 22.67 ppg, on average holding opponents to 7.9 ppg under average and scoring 14.8 ppg more than the opponents season average.

If Sac holds UM to 8.45 points under their average Griz should score 33 points. If Griz score 14.8 points more than Sac gives up on average Griz should score 35 points.

If UM holds Sac to 8 points under their average Sac should score 24. If the math holds Griz should win 33-24.

It will probably be 12-10 or 47-45 or something completely different.

I think something like 45-34... :thumb: :thumb:

 

[Diesel]

“I'm just excited to see a game that might finally tell us if our team is for real”

Games to this point have shown the Griz are for real.

They have been tested by some of the best FCS teams with experienced QBs.

FCS national stats
Passing%. Total Yards Passing
South Dakota 8. UCD 2
UCD 12 South Dakota 21
Monmouth 22 Monmouth 32

Sac 16 Sac 15

Total offense Completion %

South Dakota 10 UCD 3
UCD 12 South Dakota 8
Monmouth 30 Monmouth 16
ISU 23

Sac 7 Sac 10

UM has faced good to great FCS level offenses and defenses and haven’t faltered. Instead they have dismantled them.

 

[uofmman1122]

“I'm just excited to see a game that might finally tell us if our team is for real”

Games to this point have shown the Griz are for real.

They have been tested by some of the best FCS teams with experienced QBs.

FCS national stats
Passing%. Total Yards Passing
South Dakota 8. UCD 2
UCD 12 South Dakota 21
Monmouth 22 Monmouth 32

Sac 16 Sac 15

Total offense Completion %

South Dakota 10 UCD 3
UCD 12 South Dakota 8
Monmouth 30 Monmouth 16
ISU 23

Sac 7 Sac 10

UM has faced good to great FCS level offenses and defenses and haven’t faltered. Instead they have dismantled them.

I feel you, for sure, I'm just being overly cautious and nervous.

If we win this one going away, I think it's a commanding statement that we're one of the best teams in all of FCS.

 

[Diesel]

“I'm just excited to see a game that might finally tell us if our team is for real”

Games to this point have shown the Griz are for real.

They have been tested by some of the best FCS teams with experienced QBs.

FCS national stats
Passing%. Total Yards Passing
South Dakota 8. UCD 2
UCD 12 South Dakota 21
Monmouth 22 Monmouth 32

Sac 16 Sac 15

Total offense Completion %

South Dakota 10 UCD 3
UCD 12 South Dakota 8
Monmouth 30 Monmouth 16
ISU 23

Sac 7 Sac 10

UM has faced good to great FCS level offenses and defenses and haven’t faltered. Instead they have dismantled them.

I feel you, for sure, I'm just being overly cautious and nervous.

If we win this one going away, I think it's a commanding statement that we're one of the best teams in all of FCS.

:thumb: Win or lose, Bobby has a unique ability to recruit,develop, and get the most out a team. Montana is a juggernaut in FCS. The 2011 Sac thread reminded me how much of a loss of dominance resulted in HC change. I supported the last three coaches, but they aren’t Bobby. Bobby seams better this time around and the ancient coaching staff that some have questioned look real nice when facing other good programs. Hawkins got out coached earlier in the season and he has a whole lot of miles under him. Montana has the players, size and speed and a great coaching staff. This team has tradition and drive the staff has high level experience...there is no sneaking up or fooling them as Sac players have said post game last week. Thompson mentioned giving Griz something new this week. Same old Sac or new Sac Griz staff have been coaching long before Thompson was a twinkle in his daddy’s eye or well before he was bouncing from ball to ball trying to keep from being a bastard. Looking forward to this game and the rest of the season.

 

[AZGrizFan]

“I'm just excited to see a game that might finally tell us if our team is for real”

Games to this point have shown the Griz are for real.

They have been tested by some of the best FCS teams with experienced QBs.

FCS national stats
Passing%. Total Yards Passing
South Dakota 8. UCD 2
UCD 12 South Dakota 21
Monmouth 22 Monmouth 32

Sac 16 Sac 15

Total offense Completion %

South Dakota 10 UCD 3
UCD 12 South Dakota 8
Monmouth 30 Monmouth 16
ISU 23

Sac 7 Sac 10

UM has faced good to great FCS level offenses and defenses and haven’t faltered. Instead they have dismantled them.

It was said on here UCD was going to be “THE game”. They weren’t up to the task.
Then it was said ISU was going to be “THE game”. They wilted after 15 minutes.
Now it’s said that SSU is going to be “THE game”. I think not.

 

[PlayerRep]

“I'm just excited to see a game that might finally tell us if our team is for real”

Games to this point have shown the Griz are for real.

They have been tested by some of the best FCS teams with experienced QBs.

FCS national stats
Passing%. Total Yards Passing
South Dakota 8. UCD 2
UCD 12 South Dakota 21
Monmouth 22 Monmouth 32

Sac 16 Sac 15

Total offense Completion %

South Dakota 10 UCD 3
UCD 12 South Dakota 8
Monmouth 30 Monmouth 16
ISU 23

Sac 7 Sac 10

UM has faced good to great FCS level offenses and defenses and haven’t faltered. Instead they have dismantled them.

It was said on here UCD was going to be “THE game”. They weren’t up to the task.
Then it was said ISU was going to be “THE game”. They wilted after 15 minutes.
Now it’s said that SSU is going to be “THE game”. I think not.

Good point.

 

[IdaGriz01]

“I'm just excited to see a game that might finally tell us if our team is for real”

Games to this point have shown the Griz are for real.
...

It was said on here UCD was going to be “THE game”. They weren’t up to the task.
Then it was said ISU was going to be “THE game”. They wilted after 15 minutes.
Now it’s said that SSU is going to be “THE game”. I think not.

Good point.

Actually, that theme is pretty well valid for just about every game so far, based on a spot check of posts leading up to the games. (Most of the talk before the Oregon game was about possible injuries, so that doesn't mean much one way or the other.)

Some were pretty confident about a win at South Dakota, but many were not. Plus, there was an underlying worry that the Griz would end up being a team that looked great in practice, but might not carry that into a real game. Or that they’d take too long to really get it going. And a ton of posts worried that there’d be a continuation of last year’s fourth-quarter el-foldo. "This will be the game that will tell us where the Griz stand."

With North Alabama, the Lion’s fairly decisive road win at Western Illinois had a lot of people worried. And there was a lot of talk about UNA’s “winning tradition,” and how they might be further along in their transition than anyone expected. "South Dakota turned out to be a paper tiger, this will be a real test."

Monmouth headed to Missoula with a two-game winning streak against FCS opponents. It was amazing how good Monmouth looked “on paper” to quite a few posters. And people were worried that the Griz would be caught “flat-footed,” or still be worn down from the Oregon game. "Now we'll really see what the Griz are made of."

Neither Sac State nor the Griz have to prove that they're "for real" or show "what they're made of." This, IMO, will be two heavyweights going at it "and may the best man [team] win." I give Sac a slight edge for being at home ... but that's it.

 

[buckeyehornetfan]

One direction? What are you talking about?

SS has run up its points and TO against weak teams. Its scoring and offense are inflated.

UM has scored a zillion points against its FCS app;onents.

You think UM can't score 30 or 40 points against SS. How is SS going to stop UM? I say your only chance is turnovers.

Look what UM did to Davis' offense and great qb. That's why I'm thinking UM will do against SS.

Those FBS teams don't have good offenses. 92d and 70th in scoring. 29 and 25 points. 73d and 88th in TO. The best one averages just over 400 per game.

Want to bet me on whether UM scores more in first half against SS than Fresno did?

Yes, one way. You (and the original person I responded to) are suffering from confirmation bias. You're touting all of UM's opponents as legit while pronouncing Sac State's inferior. However, the Hornets have faced 2 FBS programs and 2 ranked FCS teams. That's 4 of the 6 games they've played.

I didn't at all factor in the D2 shut out when I cited their defensive performances. I only weighed their FBS/FCS opponents. Only one of those (UNC) was a low quality opponent.

So, again I ask. Since only one of those opponents scored over 30, why should anyone believe Montana is going to score 50??? UM is not clearly better than AZ ST or Fresno ST.

Since the original Griz fan I responded to based his entire logic on what the Sac State offense has scored against what he considered lesser opponents, I pointed out that the same logic could be applied to Sac State defense and the fact that UM isn't better than AZ ST or FSU.

But you seem to only want to look at it one way.

Listen, I'm not making any predictions or implying that Sac State will undoubtedly win. I have no idea. I'm merely hopeful they will win.

I'm just questioning the logic cited as to why Sac State couldn't possibly score as many points as some of the UM fans predicted in this thread then turning it around on those that are predicting the Griz to score 40 or 50 while ignoring the same logic they just used to justify half of their score prediction. It makes no sense at all.

UM's offense now is better than AZ St and Fresno's offense was when you played them. Also, neither of those FBS teams came into the game thinking that SS was any good or would even put up a fight.

I have no bias whatsoever. I understand the game, I played the game, I watch games, and I talk to the coaches, players and parents. I know what is going on with the Griz. The Griz are quite healthy too.

Using your silly points logic, SS is within 9 points of being as good as Michigan St, because the scores of the games were were 19-7 and 10-7. Didn't anyone ever teach you that it's basically worthless to try to compare games and scores like that? There is no "logic" or substance to doing that.

Oh, and I am also getting a bit of info from a friend whose son played and coached for SS several years ago.

Most of the Stats of the 2 teams are relatively similar. I think UM is a better team, with a better offense. We shall see.

Do you have any substantive argument other than only 1 team has scored more than 30 points against you? That's an argument, but pretty weak all by itself.

You didn’t get one thing right. Not one.

Me on the other hand ....... oh never mind. What’s the point.