Are we prepared for no football this fall?

[HookedonGriz]

ILTC, I appreciate the intelligent and reasonable discourse. It's certainly a marked change from many posters on this issue.



So while i understand -- and agree completely -- with this sentiment, would be be better off blindly following the orders of politicians versus the recommendations of multiple subject experts?



Again, I believe anyone who focuses on the death rate is mistaken. The mortality rate wasn't the concern that drove the stay at home orders, although it is running a staggering 5.8% of confirmed cases). The primary concern was the hospitalization rate, and the number of those patients who would need ICU care. There are only 46,000 ICU beds in America. Even with social distancing and marked slowing in increased cases, some models project we'll be at ICU capacity on May 13th.

I'm very curious to get your thoughts on what would have happened if we hadn't social distanced.

Great points.

Like you, I'm happy to follow the orders of experts over politicians every day of the week and twice on Sunday. But as I mentioned, we need to remember that there are epidemiologists and doctors that have said it's been overblown as well. We have very smart people dealing with this, and they all aren't in agreement.

I haven't looked much at the death rates to be honest because I don't think they are very fair to be honest. We know many have probably had this virus that had no idea. We also know that you had to check every box of symptoms to even qualify to be tested. There were people who were pretty sick that checked off 8-10 boxes and couldn't get tested. We were and to my knowledge still are only testing very sick, very vulnerable people. This is going to skew the numbers big time. I just don't think they are even close to being an accurate indicator of danger in my personal opinion.

Along those lines, I've never put much credence in the ventilator numbers for the same reasons. My sister is an administrator at Mayo in Fargo. Her information has been amazing. Like all hospitals, they basically shut everything down and put all resources into fighting Covid. They were even prepared to use the FargoDome early on when models were predicting so many hospitalizations. Last week they had something like 40 hospitalizations and I'll admit she said over 20 required ventilators. But obviously almost all were older, more vulnerable people. Like almost every other hospital in the country they haven't come close to filling the beds they prepared for, and it's costing them a ton of money.

As far as social distancing, I have no doubt in my mind it worked. I've said that all along. It's just science. Stay away from other people and you're less likely to get sick. My issue has always been the extent of the distancing, the fact that we were FORCED to quit working and going to school, and the fact that in the beginning we treated all states the same. I'm happy we have gotten away from that a bit.

My issue with the social distancing is that we have so much unknown at this time, and I feel like people could possibly be giving it far too much credit for fighting the virus. Note that I said COULD be, as we need to learn more. But I'm not happy that experts can just throw out a monster number like 3 million Americans will die, then force us to stop working and going to school, and then when the numbers are a fraction of a fraction of that huge death total.....give all the kudos to social distancing! It's a slippery slope in my eyes.

Social distancing may have in fact been the sole reason we'll probably see less than 100,000 deaths and not the 3 million predicted. But what if it's not? What if 90% of our population have already been infected. What if the deaths truly would have only been in the ballpark of 100,000 or so and the distancing was responsibly for a small amount of that. Was the cost worth it?

I've said before, if we were just talking about saved lives versus the economy and money I'd take the lives every time. But it's not. The effects of this lockdown will lead to lives lost too, they'll just be different lives.

I'll admit that when we learn more about this thing, if there really are not many more cases out there than what we have confirmed, I'll say it may have been more serious than I thought. However, I'd hope people on the other side will do the same thing if it's learned that many more people had it than thought, thus lower hospitalization rates, lower death rates, and lower danger overall. It just doesn't strike me as a fair way of looking at it that we can credit social distancing alone for saving millions of lives when it's possible there were never millions of lives in jeopardy in the first place.

It’s like you’re talking for me. I agree 10000000%. I officially hate you 50% less than I did before. Keep climbing

 

[ilovethecats]

Great points.

Like you, I'm happy to follow the orders of experts over politicians every day of the week and twice on Sunday. But as I mentioned, we need to remember that there are epidemiologists and doctors that have said it's been overblown as well. We have very smart people dealing with this, and they all aren't in agreement.

I haven't looked much at the death rates to be honest because I don't think they are very fair to be honest. We know many have probably had this virus that had no idea. We also know that you had to check every box of symptoms to even qualify to be tested. There were people who were pretty sick that checked off 8-10 boxes and couldn't get tested. We were and to my knowledge still are only testing very sick, very vulnerable people. This is going to skew the numbers big time. I just don't think they are even close to being an accurate indicator of danger in my personal opinion.

Along those lines, I've never put much credence in the ventilator numbers for the same reasons. My sister is an administrator at Mayo in Fargo. Her information has been amazing. Like all hospitals, they basically shut everything down and put all resources into fighting Covid. They were even prepared to use the FargoDome early on when models were predicting so many hospitalizations. Last week they had something like 40 hospitalizations and I'll admit she said over 20 required ventilators. But obviously almost all were older, more vulnerable people. Like almost every other hospital in the country they haven't come close to filling the beds they prepared for, and it's costing them a ton of money.

As far as social distancing, I have no doubt in my mind it worked. I've said that all along. It's just science. Stay away from other people and you're less likely to get sick. My issue has always been the extent of the distancing, the fact that we were FORCED to quit working and going to school, and the fact that in the beginning we treated all states the same. I'm happy we have gotten away from that a bit.

My issue with the social distancing is that we have so much unknown at this time, and I feel like people could possibly be giving it far too much credit for fighting the virus. Note that I said COULD be, as we need to learn more. But I'm not happy that experts can just throw out a monster number like 3 million Americans will die, then force us to stop working and going to school, and then when the numbers are a fraction of a fraction of that huge death total.....give all the kudos to social distancing! It's a slippery slope in my eyes.

Social distancing may have in fact been the sole reason we'll probably see less than 100,000 deaths and not the 3 million predicted. But what if it's not? What if 90% of our population have already been infected. What if the deaths truly would have only been in the ballpark of 100,000 or so and the distancing was responsibly for a small amount of that. Was the cost worth it?

I've said before, if we were just talking about saved lives versus the economy and money I'd take the lives every time. But it's not. The effects of this lockdown will lead to lives lost too, they'll just be different lives.

I'll admit that when we learn more about this thing, if there really are not many more cases out there than what we have confirmed, I'll say it may have been more serious than I thought. However, I'd hope people on the other side will do the same thing if it's learned that many more people had it than thought, thus lower hospitalization rates, lower death rates, and lower danger overall. It just doesn't strike me as a fair way of looking at it that we can credit social distancing alone for saving millions of lives when it's possible there were never millions of lives in jeopardy in the first place.

It’s like you’re talking for me. I agree 10000000%. I officially hate you 50% less than I did before. Keep climbing

Is that a REAL 50%.....or a "Covid 50%"...?

 

[Yukon]

When was the last death in US caused by natural causes? OH I know, it was before Covid-19 was announced. Folks, if you feel ill stay home and stay away from people, take responsibility for yourselves! You don't need an expert in DC to tell you you're sick and what you should do...call your local hospital and they will tell you what to do. If you have pre-existing health problems, you know what you should be doing? The media is nothing but Doom and Gloom and Americans eat it up!
Let's play some football!

You didn't hear that there has been a miraculous cure for the flu, influenza, heart disease and cancer?! Because somehow....some way....all those forms of death are lower than they have been in the last 15 years! I can't put my finger on it, but the only LOGICAL conclusion a person can make is there is a cure for these ailments. Which is great news!

yup:

"Birx says government is classifying all deaths of patients with coronavirus as 'COVID-19' deaths, regardless of cause"

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/birx-says-government-is-classifying-all-deaths-of-patients-with-coronavirus-as-covid-19-deaths-regardless-of-cause

 

[MikeyGriz]

When was the last death in US caused by natural causes? OH I know, it was before Covid-19 was announced. Folks, if you feel ill stay home and stay away from people, take responsibility for yourselves! You don't need an expert in DC to tell you you're sick and what you should do...call your local hospital and they will tell you what to do. If you have pre-existing health problems, you know what you should be doing? The media is nothing but Doom and Gloom and Americans eat it up!
Let's play some football!

You didn't hear that there has been a miraculous cure for the flu, influenza, heart disease and cancer?! Because somehow....some way....all those forms of death are lower than they have been in the last 15 years! I can't put my finger on it, but the only LOGICAL conclusion a person can make is there is a cure for these ailments. Which is great news!

If not a cure, possibly at least a vaccine!

 

[PlayerRep]

Great points.

Like you, I'm happy to follow the orders of experts over politicians every day of the week and twice on Sunday. [Not me. I think experts should be consulted and listened too, but then leaders make the decisions. In government and in business.] But as I mentioned, we need to remember that there are epidemiologists and doctors that have said it's been overblown as well. We have very smart people dealing with this, and they all aren't in agreement.

I haven't looked much at the death rates to be honest because I don't think they are very fair to be honest. We know many have probably had this virus that had no idea. We also know that you had to check every box of symptoms to even qualify to be tested. There were people who were pretty sick that checked off 8-10 boxes and couldn't get tested. We were and to my knowledge still are only testing very sick, very vulnerable people. This is going to skew the numbers big time. I just don't think they are even close to being an accurate indicator of danger in my personal opinion. [Not sure what you mean, but I believe the level of danger has been exaggerated, so far.]

Along those lines, I've never put much credence in the ventilator numbers for the same reasons. My sister is an administrator at Mayo in Fargo. Her information has been amazing. Like all hospitals, they basically shut everything down and put all resources into fighting Covid. They were even prepared to use the FargoDome early on when models were predicting so many hospitalizations. Last week they had something like 40 hospitalizations and I'll admit she said over 20 required ventilators. But obviously almost all were older, more vulnerable people. Like almost every other hospital in the country they haven't come close to filling the beds they prepared for, and it's costing them a ton of money. [ND has 30 hospitalized in the whole state now. Most of the modelers who were so far off, must either do climate change modeling, or are trying out to be climate change modelers. "There have now been 1,067 cases of coronavirus in North Dakota.

30 people are currently hospitalized.
458 people have recovered from the virus.
There have been 19 deaths connected to COVID-19 in North Dakota.}

As far as social distancing, I have no doubt in my mind it worked. [I agree, but how much and whether it was all necessary or helpful, is a different question.] I've said that all along. It's just science. Stay away from other people and you're less likely to get sick. My issue has always been the extent of the distancing, the fact that we were FORCED to quit working and going to school, and the fact that in the beginning we treated all states the same. I'm happy we have gotten away from that a bit. [Agreed.]

My issue with the social distancing is that we have so much unknown at this time, and I feel like people could possibly be giving it far too much credit for fighting the virus. Note that I said COULD be, as we need to learn more. But I'm not happy that experts can just throw out a monster number like 3 million Americans will die, then force us to stop working and going to school, and then when the numbers are a fraction of a fraction of that huge death total.....give all the kudos to social distancing! It's a slippery slope in my eyes. [Agreed.]

Social distancing may have in fact been the sole reason we'll probably see less than 100,000 deaths and not the 3 million predicted. But what if it's not? What if 90% of our population have already been infected. What if the deaths truly would have only been in the ballpark of 100,000 or so and the distancing was responsibly for a small amount of that. Was the cost worth it?

I've said before, if we were just talking about saved lives versus the economy and money I'd take the lives every time. But it's not. The effects of this lockdown will lead to lives lost too, they'll just be different lives.

I'll admit that when we learn more about this thing, if there really are not many more cases out there than what we have confirmed, I'll say it may have been more serious than I thought. However, I'd hope people on the other side will do the same thing if it's learned that many more people had it than thought, thus lower hospitalization rates, lower death rates, and lower danger overall. It just doesn't strike me as a fair way of looking at it that we can credit social distancing alone for saving millions of lives when it's possible there were never millions of lives in jeopardy in the first place. [This is what I think.]

It’s like you’re talking for me. I agree 10000000%. I officially hate you 50% less than I did before. Keep climbing

See embedded comments in bold, above. Very good post, in my view.

 

[EverettGriz]

All great points, ILTC. And I agree at least in principle with all of them.

Here's the rub for me, though: We may never know what would have happened if we hadn't handled this the way we did. But when we made the decision to social distance, we already had actual, real life, empirical evidence (Italy, China) that it worked. It flattened the curve, and prevented or minimized the health care system from becoming overwhelmed. Had we not done it might the predicted numbers still not have occurred? Yes.

But God help us had we been wrong.

As an aside, I'm curious what your sister's opinion is. Does she believe we overreacted?

 

[PlayerRep]

Today's brief MT report:

2 new cases. First in Fergus county. One person is someone who' been living out of state and will stay there (so really not a MT case).

Still 5 only hospitalizations.

"Toole County, where there is an outbreak associated with an assisted living center, has the most active cases in the state at nine, followed by Yellowstone County at eight." Missoulian.

"There have been 16 deaths in Montana to date. There have been six deaths in Toole County, two in Cascade County, two in Flathead County, two in Yellowstone County, and one each in Lincoln County, Madison County, Missoula County, and Gallatin County." KRTV."

This was the Gallatin county death on Monday:

"Bill O’Connor, 66, died Monday after a bout with COVID-19. He had been hospitalized because of the virus for about three weeks. His death was the first in Gallatin County related to the disease and the 15th in the state.

O’Connor was an elementary school teacher in Livingston for more than 30 years and also coached wrestling and cross-country for many of those. He had six siblings and five children."

Bozeman Chronicle.

 

[UncleRico]

Man i hope there is football this fall. It is going to be a logistical challenge for sure. The "no-fans" part is going to be the easy part of it. MLB is looking at a few different options and the one gaining steam it appears is early July season start . If they are still looking at a late start like that then when could you start a contact sport like football? I listen to a lot of NFL Network on Sirius (Movin The Chains..best sports talk show out there) these days and they have had some very interesting conversations regarding the season. NFL looks like they are going to have a whole series of options including eliminating or reducing preseason games and even a mid October start with a shortened season. The "no fans" thing seem like a foregone conclusion at this point. The quick turn around COVID tests will be a big help because it is believed that players will have to be tested quite frequently. One question that was asked was "what if a couple players on a team test positive within a day or two of game?...would team have to forfeit?" So let's translate that to to football and the Big Sky Conference in particular. If there are no fans would playing the games be economically feasible? I don't think classes will be online in the Fall but UM sent out a survey to students about the possibility (my son is a grad student) that they could be. One option included being "on hold" until August about the direction they would go. If classes are online can you have football? if you have to test players frequently who pays for that? I think there is still a pretty good chance of football this Fall but if it happens it might be a modified or shortened season. I think MLB is going to set the trend. If there is no baseball..then I think football is done for this season (at least NCAA). If baseball does it successfully then it is a blueprint for the rest.

 

[UncleRico]

https://www.si.com/college/2020/04/30/college-football-season-2020-status-future

 

[PlayerRep]

1. "Italy's restaurants worry about social distancing rules

Thousands of restaurants, bars and clubs in Italy are protesting against post-lockdown social distancing measures that could cause the closure of 50% of all businesses in the hospitality sector."

[I've talked to some restaurant people in Missoula who say they can't make a profit at 50% capacity. They also have the employee problem due to the high unemployment payment.]

https://www.dw.com/en/italys-restaurants-worry-about-social-distancing-rules/av-53277216

2. "How the pandemic is changing air pollution levels

With the world's economic output lessened and automobile and air traffic drastically reduced, dramatic changes in air quality have been measured"

"With more of us staying inside and off the roads, cities around the globe are reporting less air pollution.

In the United States, Washington, D.C., is experiencing its cleanest spring air in 25 years, while Los Angeles – once ranked as having the worst air quality in the country – is now boasting some of the best in the world.

"I don't really think we've seen anything like this," said Ryan Stauffer, a research scientist with NASA who uses satellite data to study air quality. Last month, in the northeast, NASA observed a 30% drop in the air pollutant nitrogen dioxide compared to the same month in previous years.

Stauffer said it's likely a response to fewer cars on the road."

CBS News: https://apple.news/AGXA-iNCKQqihksJX2YGfGA

 

[Yukon]

https://www.si.com/college/2020/04/30/college-football-season-2020-status-future

This is how I see it. Season is a long way off and I believe this will be well under control by end of May/early June. Testing will be everywhere and effective.

 

[WaGriz4life]

What has Fauci been correct on? Why doesn't South Dakota have thousands of people dead since they didn't go in to lockdown? Why aren't thousands of essential workers, such as myself, dying all over the place since it is so infectious and dangerous?

These are real questions I would like answers to if you have them. Fauci does not have those answers, because he was wrong in his assessment of how lethal this virus is.

Fauci has been right on most of what he's said and done. He hasn't been way out there like some, and like most of the early modelers.

What has he been wrong on? Show us what he said that was wrong. I'm sure he's been wrong on some stuff, but what are you talking about?

What did Fauci say about how lethal the virus was? Is it this: "Fauci said COVID-19 is at least 10 times “more lethal” than the seasonal flu, even if the mortality rate drops far below the World Health Organization’s current estimate of 3.4%."

I've seen .1% mentioned as mortality rate of the flu. I saw Cuomo mention some figures recently, and .5% was the lowest. So, that would be 5 times more than the flu. I don't think Fauci has been using the incredibly high percentages. Note that Fauci's quote was on March 11, and Cuomo's info is just a day or two ago.

Fauci has nothing to do with SD.

Personally, I"m in favor of social distancing, just not alot of the more strict stuff. And, social distancing could have been more relaxed in places like MT, than places not NYC.

The US is now at 62,000 deaths and rising. Nothing to sneeze at. I agree that it's not a good idea to shut down the economy like was done in the US, and that was overkill and has to get changed right away, but the virus by itself was also going to affect the economy.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/virus-outbreak-infectious-disease/2020/01/26/id/951325/

Here is a big one. Said it was nothing the US needs to worry about at the End of January.

He also predicted Florida would become like New York because they had beaches open and didn't go on lockdown.

 

[WaGriz4life]

Why do you guys think we haven't had a lot of essential workers dropping dead from this virus? Since we are supposedly exposed to all these asymptomatic carriers all day long and that this virus is deadly even to the young and healthy (It's not, that's just what the news says)

 

[Yukon]

https://twitter.com/VanessaMiller12/status/1255951320680366080?s=20

 

[Yukon]

https://twitter.com/NASCAR/status/1255934836717608973?s=20

 

[PlayerRep]

Fauci has been right on most of what he's said and done. He hasn't been way out there like some, and like most of the early modelers.

What has he been wrong on? Show us what he said that was wrong. I'm sure he's been wrong on some stuff, but what are you talking about?

What did Fauci say about how lethal the virus was? Is it this: "Fauci said COVID-19 is at least 10 times “more lethal” than the seasonal flu, even if the mortality rate drops far below the World Health Organization’s current estimate of 3.4%."

I've seen .1% mentioned as mortality rate of the flu. I saw Cuomo mention some figures recently, and .5% was the lowest. So, that would be 5 times more than the flu. I don't think Fauci has been using the incredibly high percentages. Note that Fauci's quote was on March 11, and Cuomo's info is just a day or two ago.

Fauci has nothing to do with SD.

Personally, I"m in favor of social distancing, just not alot of the more strict stuff. And, social distancing could have been more relaxed in places like MT, than places not NYC.

The US is now at 62,000 deaths and rising. Nothing to sneeze at. I agree that it's not a good idea to shut down the economy like was done in the US, and that was overkill and has to get changed right away, but the virus by itself was also going to affect the economy.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/virus-outbreak-infectious-disease/2020/01/26/id/951325/

Here is a big one. Said it was nothing the US needs to worry about at the End of January.

He also predicted Florida would become like New York because they had beaches open and didn't go on lockdown.

I'm okay with the early end of January comment. At least, he was overly cautious. I still think he's been right or closer to right the bulk of the time, and has done well for the country and Trump.

 

[ilovethecats]

Why do you guys think we haven't had a lot of essential workers dropping dead from this virus? Since we are supposedly exposed to all these asymptomatic carriers all day long and that this virus is deadly even to the young and healthy (It's not, that's just what the news says)

I’ve been curious about this as well. I employ about 20 people and all of them, myself included, have worked pretty much every day. I’m in contact with hundreds of people every day. No gloves, no masks.

I wash my hands often, and use sanitizer in between. Seems to be working fine.

You’d think Walmart and Costco employees would be dropping like flies all over the country! Or honestly, if it was really so deadly and dangerous you think they’d be forced to close as well?

 

[ilovethecats]

All great points, ILTC. And I agree at least in principle with all of them.

Here's the rub for me, though: We may never know what would have happened if we hadn't handled this the way we did. But when we made the decision to social distance, we already had actual, real life, empirical evidence (Italy, China) that it worked. It flattened the curve, and prevented or minimized the health care system from becoming overwhelmed. Had we not done it might the predicted numbers still not have occurred? Yes.

But God help us had we been wrong.

As an aside, I'm curious what your sister's opinion is. Does she believe we overreacted?

And that is part of what is so scary for me. We’ve opened the door to be told what to do for fear of what could possibly happen.

I also fear that as people are losing their homes and jobs we’ll see an increase in deaths including suicides. We know people’s finances play a huge role in suicides as it is, I’m scared to see what it could look like.

As far as my sister, like most in the medical field she took it very seriously. She was worried about what was coming. I haven’t spoken to her in a week but last week she said what my other doctor friend said, they spent a ton of time and resources for something that never came to fruition. I’m sure it could change and really spike in the coming weeks but as of now they have very few serious cases.

She did say that for some of the patients, the virus really is pretty brutal. I won’t deny that as I don’t know anyone personally who’ve been in that situation.

Like most hospitals hers has had to lay off workers abs even close departments. She did give me some insight on the incentives hospitals have on listing deaths as Covid deaths. It’s interesting and it involves money like everything. I’m not claiming hospitals are blatantly lying about causes of death, but let’s say there’s good reason to list all deaths, regardless of underlying health issues, as Covid deaths.

 

[Yukon]

All great points, ILTC. And I agree at least in principle with all of them.

Here's the rub for me, though: We may never know what would have happened if we hadn't handled this the way we did. But when we made the decision to social distance, we already had actual, real life, empirical evidence (Italy, China) that it worked. It flattened the curve, and prevented or minimized the health care system from becoming overwhelmed. Had we not done it might the predicted numbers still not have occurred? Yes.

But God help us had we been wrong.

As an aside, I'm curious what your sister's opinion is. Does she believe we overreacted?

She did give me some insight on the incentives hospitals have on listing deaths as Covid deaths. It’s interesting and it involves money like everything. I’m not claiming hospitals are blatantly lying about causes of death, but let’s say there’s good reason to list all deaths, regardless of underlying health issues, as Covid deaths.

Difference from dying "with" or "from" Covid.

 

[PlayerRep]

Why do you guys think we haven't had a lot of essential workers dropping dead from this virus? Since we are supposedly exposed to all these asymptomatic carriers all day long and that this virus is deadly even to the young and healthy (It's not, that's just what the news says)

I’ve been curious about this as well. I employ about 20 people and all of them, myself included, have worked pretty much every day. I’m in contact with hundreds of people every day. No gloves, no masks.

I wash my hands often, and use sanitizer in between. Seems to be working fine.

You’d think Walmart and Costco employees would be dropping like flies all over the country! Or honestly, if it was really so deadly and dangerous you think they’d be forced to close as well?

From all of my reading, I think that most spread is from close and prolonged contact. Family spread is by far the most common, I believe. The spread comes in clusters, most of the time. Families, events, friends, gatherings. It can also come from other close contact, including someone coughing at or near you. It doesn't come from minor or casual contact most of the time, but it can. It is probably rare for it to be spread by touching something that someone has coughed on or touched, because there probably isn't enough sitting there to cause spread, nor does the person touching it promptly touch his nose/mouth. It probably doesn't spread much via small aerosol droplets in the air, but can, especially in close quarters, like bathrooms where infected people are in hospitals. Studies have shown some aerosol spread in hospitals where they are lots of patients and people working on patients, and changing protective gear. Some spread, like in active hospitals, seems to have shown to have spread what seems to be more powerful virus (or perhaps more of it). It's harder to figure out exactly what has happened in community spread situations, because it's not known where/how the spread occurred. Seemingly not old and healthy people have gotten very sick in some of those situations.

I haven't read a good comprehensive article on this subject. What I just wrote, is my recollection from having read zillions of articles on the virus, some of which discuss the methods of spread. Don't take what I said to the bank.