Semore's defense vs Gregorak's defense, a 2-year look

[ilovethecats]

gotta assume strength of schedule plays a part in all of these stats too right?

That's one of my qualifiers that it doesn't since I'd have no clue how to weight the two... Guess I could pull each teams Sagarin for the year... but that's not really just SoS though...

2017:
Griz - 135
Cats - 148

2016:
Griz - 134
Cats - 180

------------

ILTC - had someone on twitter share this:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JordanMiller406/status/930910787887083520[/tweet]

interesting stuff. thanks for sharing

 

[BWahlberg]

Wow interesting stuff. Kind of eye opening for me to be honest as it seems like Semore has had his struggles here. Thanks for putting together

I thought it would be interesting to see how the two stack up. Does it mean they'd have the same results if they traded places? Obviously, no. I just found it pretty fascinating to look at the two side by side with 21 games a piece to compare their body of work to date. This kind of sprung up as an idea when I was doing the MSU scouting report and started noticing some numbers for the Griz defensively that were as good or better than MSU's.

I think it would be fair to say Semore has also had more talent to work worth than TG.

Significantly, yes.

 

[HookedonGriz]

gotta assume strength of schedule plays a part in all of these stats too right?

That's one of my qualifiers that it doesn't since I'd have no clue how to weight the two... Guess I could pull each teams Sagarin for the year... but that's not really just SoS though...

2017:
Griz - 135
Cats - 148

2016:
Griz - 134
Cats - 180

------------

ILTC - had someone on twitter share this:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JordanMiller406/status/930910787887083520[/tweet]

interesting stuff. thanks for sharing

Except that guy only shared the composite score which equals a different ranking. MSU is at a 136 rank and UM at a 186 rank. No doubt MSU has had a tougher schedule this year. But FTC anyways

 

[PlayerRep]

Granted we're not fully through the season, 1 more game for each (at least) but I thought it would be interesting to take a statistical look between the two. This is a general approach and doesn't take into account some things that I don't have time to edit out, such as special teams and defensive TDs - so some of the scoring stuff might be a little off... but I think this still gives the general picture. Both have had 2 years on the job and 2 years to build "their style".

This is combined stats from 2016 and 2017 YTD:

Scoring

Semore: 585 points / 27.86 points per game
Gregorak: 528 points / 25.14 points per game

Turnovers

Semore: 24 INTs / 20 fumbles / 44 total
Gregorak: 14 INTs / 14 fumbles / 28 total

Yardage Allowed:

Semore: 3193 rushing / 4878 passing / 8071 total / 384 yards per game
Gregorak: 3331 rushing / 4978 passing / 8309 total / 396 yards per game

TFLs / Sacks:

Semore: 182 TFLs / 63 sacks (8.67 TFLs and 3 sacks per game)
Gregorak: 108 TFLs / 31 sacks (5.14 TFLs and 1.5 sacks per game)

Defensive TDs:

Semore: 6 (1 fumble, 5 INT)
Gregorak: 2 (1 fumble, 1 INT)

3rd Down / 4th Down defense:

Semore: 104 for 318 = 33% 3rd down conversion & 13 for 33 = 39% on 4th down
Gregorak: 136 for 317 = 43% on 3rd down conversion & 24 for 44 = 55% on 4th down

Red Zone Defense

Semore: 55-83 scoring = 66% scores allowed / 47 TDs allowed = 57% TDs
Gregorak: 66-78 scoring = 85% scores allowed / 45 TDs allowed = 58% TDs

First Downs Allowed

Semore: 411 = 19.57 per game
Gregorak: 456 = 21.71 per game

Time on the field

Semore: 30:23 per game
Gregorak: 30:39 per game

--------------

Interesting to stack up side by side. Again there's some tough things to totally compare side by side considering each team hasn't played the exact same opponents and that some defensive stats (like scoring) might be skewed a little bit because it doesn't subtract scores given up by ST or by the offense (like pick-6 TDs for example).

Another thing to point out. Cats record in in the last two years is 7-13 to date, Griz is 13-8 yet head-to-head as we all know Gregorak's defense is 1-0 right now.

Gregorak worked wonders for what walked in to. Its amazing he took a defense that was ranked literally dead last in the nation, and within 2 years, with basically the same dudes, has brought to a point of at least being in the same conversation as UM's defense. Not everyone could have had that much success.

It would be really interesting to compare MSU's defense 2015 vs 2017, and then also UM 2015 vs 2017.

Not sure what UM would look like, but MSU's numbers would be MUUUUCH improved.

I was thinking the same thing, i.e. MSU D from 2015 to 2016 to 2017. Another big factor in the stats is the quality of players to work with. While I don't know, it is my impression that UM's defensive talent was better than MSU's talent, both last year and probably this year. Assume MSU is bringing in better talent now, but don't know that either.

I assume one other stat would be a comparison of common opponents in the same year. That too isn't quite apples to apples either, because games and teams can be very different week to week.

I was a bit surprised that the numbers for the 2 teams were fairly close, even thought UM's were a bit better.

 

[PlayerRep]

I don't think you can just look at stats here. Ty had to change a "culture" at MSU with some really young players to boot. He's now put his stamp on this program like no assistant I've seen before with the exception of possibly McEndoo. We're on track to be really good on defense for years to come.

Choate likely in charge of creating the culture. Ty would normally be asked to support that. Here, he decided to do his own chaotic thing, create factions & get teammates to mistrust each other. Choate isn’t allowing that to occur there.

I call BS to your comment on TG in Missoula.

 

[ilovethecats]

I don't think you can just look at stats here. Ty had to change a "culture" at MSU with some really young players to boot. He's now put his stamp on this program like no assistant I've seen before with the exception of possibly McEndoo. We're on track to be really good on defense for years to come.

Choate likely in charge of creating the culture. Ty would normally be asked to support that. Here, he decided to do his own chaotic thing, create factions & get teammates to mistrust each other. Choate isn’t allowing that to occur there.

I call BS to your comment on TG in Missoula.

me too. if it's true his former players sure are hiding it well because most of them seem like they'd run through a wall for him.

I for one am glad we have him.

 

[poorgriz]

You see how many points below or above their average..... each team is holding their opponents to. I think that's where things might stand out a bit more. I honestly haven't looked at this stat but I just know that week after week the CATS seem to hold their opponents to quite a bit less than their average, but yes..... still manage to let the game slip away.

 

[PhxGriz]

Wow interesting stuff. Kind of eye opening for me to be honest as it seems like Semore has had his struggles here. Thanks for putting together

I thought it would be interesting to see how the two stack up. Does it mean they'd have the same results if they traded places? Obviously, no. I just found it pretty fascinating to look at the two side by side with 21 games a piece to compare their body of work to date. This kind of sprung up as an idea when I was doing the MSU scouting report and started noticing some numbers for the Griz defensively that were as good or better than MSU's.

I think it would be fair to say Semore has also had more talent to work worth than TG.

Significantly, yes.

Sounds like Gregorak left a toxic environment that finally cleared itself this last season though.

 

[bgbigdog]

I don't think you can just look at stats here. Ty had to change a "culture" at MSU with some really young players to boot. He's now put his stamp on this program like no assistant I've seen before with the exception of possibly McEndoo. We're on track to be really good on defense for years to come.

Choate likely in charge of creating the culture. Ty would normally be asked to support that. Here, he decided to do his own chaotic thing, create factions & get teammates to mistrust each other. Choate isn’t allowing that to occur there.

I call BS to your comment on TG in Missoula.

me too. if it's true his former players sure are hiding it well because most of them seem like they'd run through a wall for him.

I for one am glad we have him.

You forget what Choates pedigree is? I’m sure he’s content to let Gregorak to make all the decisions, isn’t he? The defense played over there isn’t simply a re-installation what he did while in Missoula. I for another, am glad you have him.

 

[IdahoGrizFan]

It seems that more and more of the teams who play MSU are finding a way to stop their offense, NAU an exception. Keeping the QB under wraps is paramount. Pressure? They don't throw a lot. Do we give up some passes to stop the run? Beat the snot out of him till he doesn't want to come back on the field?

 

[CDAGRIZ]

BW in this thread so far:

Nice work, BTW, BW. :thumb:

 

[CDAGRIZ]

I don't think you can just look at stats here. Ty had to change a "culture" at MSU with some really young players to boot. He's now put his stamp on this program like no assistant I've seen before with the exception of possibly McEndoo. We're on track to be really good on defense for years to come.

Choate likely in charge of creating the culture. Ty would normally be asked to support that. Here, he decided to do his own chaotic thing, create factions & get teammates to mistrust each other. Choate isn’t allowing that to occur there.

Don't downplay Ty's role on the team, Bigdog. Choate relies on him for the coaches' film day brunches as well as tiddying up the coaches' booths after each home game.

 

[CatsTruckGriz]

gotta assume strength of schedule plays a part in all of these stats too right?

Yep.

2016 MONTANA STATE FOOTBALL SCHEDULE

Sept. 1, at Idaho

Sept. 10, Bryant

Sept. 17, Western Oregon

Sept. 24, North Dakota
Oct. 1, at Sacramento State
Oct. 8, Northern Arizona
Oct. 15, at Weber State
Oct. 22, Eastern Washington
Oct. 29, Open

Nov. 5, at Southern Utah
Nov. 12, UC Davis
Nov. 19, at Montana

Go ahead and complain about this years ALL D1 schedule for the Griz :roll:

lol. wowsa.

i'm not complaining about anything. just said when comparing numbers like these i'd assume the strength of schedules must play a factor. apparently you disagree and that's ok too! :thumb:

They don't factor stuff like that in, the only important stats are ones cherry picked against certain teams in certain quarters which make Semore look great. Good strategy.

 

[1972]

gotta assume strength of schedule plays a part in all of these stats too right?

Yep.

2016 MONTANA STATE FOOTBALL SCHEDULE

Sept. 1, at Idaho

Sept. 10, Bryant

Sept. 17, Western Oregon

Sept. 24, North Dakota
Oct. 1, at Sacramento State
Oct. 8, Northern Arizona
Oct. 15, at Weber State
Oct. 22, Eastern Washington
Oct. 29, Open

Nov. 5, at Southern Utah
Nov. 12, UC Davis
Nov. 19, at Montana

Go ahead and complain about this years ALL D1 schedule for the Griz :roll:

lol. wowsa.

i'm not complaining about anything. just said when comparing numbers like these i'd assume the strength of schedules must play a factor. apparently you disagree and that's ok too! :thumb:

They don't factor stuff like that in, the only important stats are ones cherry picked against certain teams in certain quarters which make Semore look great. Good strategy.

Amazing, BW just put facts before all of us, don't take it personal. It is what it is, doesn't mean you're going to loose on Saturday.

 

[CatsTruckGriz]

Take what personal, it's not like this shines a bad light on what Gregorak has done?

He inherited one of the worst defenses in FCS and turned it respectable in 2 years.

Semore, who inherited a great defense with much more talent, has put his in the shitter by not being able to adapt and make adjustments. Now they're about the same caliber, which shouldn't be the case.

I don't care what they did against the NAU backup bum and whatever you call that offense that UNC rolled out there, they are not that great or should I say they don't play as well as the parts that make them up. That is on Semore. I equate his defensive coaching to a chimp drawing on a paper plate with a crayon he just pulled out of his ass.

But please extend his contract. Thanks.

 

[CDAGRIZ]

I equate his defensive coaching to a chimp drawing on a paper plate with a crayon he just pulled out of his ass.

:lol: :lol: :lol:
We will never forget you digging for that Burnt Sienna crayon on the sidelines. Classic!

 

[CatsTruckGriz]

I equate his defensive coaching to a chimp drawing on a paper plate with a crayon he just pulled out of his ass.

:lol: :lol: :lol:
We will never forget you digging for that Burnt Sienna crayon on the sidelines. Classic!

Huh?

 

[1972]

Take what personal, it's not like this shines a bad light on what Gregorak has done?

He inherited one of the worst defenses in FCS and turned it respectable in 2 years.

Semore, who inherited a great defense with much more talent, has put his in the shitter by not being able to adapt and make adjustments. Now they're about the same caliber, which shouldn't be the case.

I don't care what they did against the NAU backup bum and whatever you call that offense that UNC rolled out there, they are not that great or should I say they don't play as well as the parts that make them up. That is on Semore. I equate his defensive coaching to a chimp drawing on a paper plate with a crayon he just pulled out of his ass.

But please extend his contract. Thanks.

Rough day? week? year?

 

[CatsTruckGriz]

Take what personal, it's not like this shines a bad light on what Gregorak has done?

He inherited one of the worst defenses in FCS and turned it respectable in 2 years.

Semore, who inherited a great defense with much more talent, has put his in the shitter by not being able to adapt and make adjustments. Now they're about the same caliber, which shouldn't be the case.

I don't care what they did against the NAU backup bum and whatever you call that offense that UNC rolled out there, they are not that great or should I say they don't play as well as the parts that make them up. That is on Semore. I equate his defensive coaching to a chimp drawing on a paper plate with a crayon he just pulled out of his ass.

But please extend his contract. Thanks.

Rough day? week? year?

Semore? 2 years so far and counting.

 

[1972]

Take what personal, it's not like this shines a bad light on what Gregorak has done?

He inherited one of the worst defenses in FCS and turned it respectable in 2 years.

Semore, who inherited a great defense with much more talent, has put his in the shitter by not being able to adapt and make adjustments. Now they're about the same caliber, which shouldn't be the case.

I don't care what they did against the NAU backup bum and whatever you call that offense that UNC rolled out there, they are not that great or should I say they don't play as well as the parts that make them up. That is on Semore. I equate his defensive coaching to a chimp drawing on a paper plate with a crayon he just pulled out of his ass.

But please extend his contract. Thanks.

Rough day? week? year?

Semore? 2 years so far and counting.

Carry on, I'm getting a kick out of this!!