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All the FCS playoff possibilities...

If we beat the cats I think we absolutely deserve a playoff spot and I think we will get one. Is it a lock? No. Regardless, this team continues on a positive trajectory and I think almost all on here will agree there is a difference between this team and last years team. If we lose to the cats then there will be no playoffs for us. If we beat them then we make the playoffs and I think we are a team that could squeak out a playoff win. If we can show the ability to beat the cats (despite their record they are a tough team to beat) handily at home, 14-17 point win, then I think we can feel pretty confident this team has turned a corner and can maybe win a couple of playoff games and would have some strong momentum headed into next year.
 
Just need to win next week. That is all that matters. It’s a game where I think both teams objectively are fairly even so the team that executes and gets turnovers will win. The rest of this playoff talk will work it’s self out but next week is a game that will define this season for us. We are a better a team than last year but I can see improvement from MSU as well so it should be wild.


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dayday said:
Just need to win next week. That is all that matters. It’s a game where I think both teams objectively are fairly even so the team that executes and gets turnovers will win. The rest of this playoff talk will work it’s self out but next week is a game that will define this season for us. We are a better a team than last year but I can see improvement from MSU as well so it should be wild.


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Click to expand...


You’d be surprised at how many people on this site were positive that this would not be the case.
 
After looking over all the final matchups, and picking likely winners, here’s how I see the “end game” playing out. In some conferences (the MVFC being one), some of the exact W-L choices don’t really matter, since both teams in the matchup are likely to get bids anyway. Of course, the Griz still have to beat the cats for any of this to matter.

It does not look likely that NC A&T will get upset this year (playing at home), so they will be in the Celebration Bowl … and no other team from the MEAC looks good enough to get an at-large bid. Grambling (6-0, 9-1) could lose to Southern (5-1, 7-3) and be knocked out of the SWAC championship game against Alcorn State, although that seems pretty unlikely. Would a 9-2 (8-2 if you bump their D-II win) Grambling get an at-large bid? Given how weak the rest of their schedule is, I’m assuming no bid in that case.

So here goes:

Automatic Bids (10) … * = favored for auto-bid
SUU (9-2)* … Big Sky
Kennesaw State (10-1)* … Big South
JMU (11-0)* … CAA
NDSU (10-1)* … MVFC
Central Connecticut St. (7-3) … Northeast
Jacksonville State (10-1)* … OVC
Lehigh (5-6)* … could be Colgate, but the Patriot is one-bid only.
San Diego (8-2) … Pioneer
Wofford (10-1)* … SoCon
Central Arkansas (10-1)* … Southland

At-large Bids (14)
Weber (8-3)
Montana (8-3)
Elon (9-2)
Stony Brook (9-2)
Delaware (8-3)
UNH (8-3)
SDSU (8-3)
South Dakota (8-3)
Western Illinois (8-3)
Northern Iowa (7-4)
Samford (8-3)
SHSU (10-1)
McNeese State (9-2)
Nicholls State (9-2)

Other strong records (5)
NAU (7-4)
EWU ( 7-4)
Furman (7-4)
Austin-Peay (8-4)
Eastern Ill. (7-4)
Monmouth (9-2)

This projection includes the somewhat “pushy” notions that the CAA could get five bids. Trim that assumption and you obviously open up one more at-large bid.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
After looking over all the final matchups, and picking likely winners, here’s how I see the “end game” playing out. In some conferences (the MVFC being one), some of the exact W-L choices don’t really matter, since both teams in the matchup are likely to get bids anyway. Of course, the Griz still have to beat the cats for any of this to matter.

It does not look likely that NC A&T will get upset this year (playing at home), so they will be in the Celebration Bowl … and no other team from the MEAC looks good enough to get an at-large bid. Grambling (6-0, 9-1) could lose to Southern (5-1, 7-3) and be knocked out of the SWAC championship game against Alcorn State, although that seems pretty unlikely. Would a 9-2 (8-2 if you bump their D-II win) Grambling get an at-large bid? Given how weak the rest of their schedule is, I’m assuming no bid in that case.

So here goes:

Automatic Bids (10) … * = favored for auto-bid
SUU (9-2)* … Big Sky
Kennesaw State (10-1)* … Big South
JMU (11-0)* … CAA
NDSU (10-1)* … MVFC
Central Connecticut St. (7-3) … Northeast
Jacksonville State (10-1)* … OVC
Lehigh (5-6)* … could be Colgate, but the Patriot is one-bid only.
San Diego (8-2) … Pioneer
Wofford (10-1)* … SoCon
Central Arkansas (10-1)* … Southland

At-large Bids (14)
Weber (8-3)
Montana (8-3)
Elon (9-2)
Stony Brook (9-2)
Delaware (8-3)
UNH (8-3)
SDSU (8-3)
South Dakota (8-3)
Western Illinois (8-3)
Northern Iowa (6-5)
Samford (8-3)
SHSU (10-1)
McNeese State (9-2)
Nicholls State (9-2)

Other strong records (5)
NAU (7-4)
EWU ( 7-4)
Furman (7-4)
Austin-Peay (8-4)
Eastern Ill. (7-4)
Monmouth (9-2)

This projection includes the somewhat “pushy” notions that the CAA could get five bids and that UNI will get a bid with a 6-5 record. Trim those assumptions and you obviously open up two more at-large bids.
Click to expand...

Rivalry weekend for a lot of teams so like most years, you can throw the records out the window...there will be upsets Saturday. I’d be floored if the Griz win and don’t get in
 
Great input, thoughts, and views. However, slightly over looked is how the ncaa LOVES money!! The question of are the griz in or out is null as long as they finish 8-3. If you think for a second that money isnt discussed in that selection room youre out of your mind. Nothing is more important to the ncaa than money.
 
IF SDSU beats USD, that’ll clear a lot of things up. I don’t think a 7-4 USD team that’s lost 4 of it’s last 5 gets in over an 8-3 BSC team.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
After looking over all the final matchups, and picking likely winners, here’s how I see the “end game” playing out. In some conferences (the MVFC being one), some of the exact W-L choices don’t really matter, since both teams in the matchup are likely to get bids anyway. Of course, the Griz still have to beat the cats for any of this to matter.

It does not look likely that NC A&T will get upset this year (playing at home), so they will be in the Celebration Bowl … and no other team from the MEAC looks good enough to get an at-large bid. Grambling (6-0, 9-1) could lose to Southern (5-1, 7-3) and be knocked out of the SWAC championship game against Alcorn State, although that seems pretty unlikely. Would a 9-2 (8-2 if you bump their D-II win) Grambling get an at-large bid? Given how weak the rest of their schedule is, I’m assuming no bid in that case.

So here goes:

Automatic Bids (10) … * = favored for auto-bid
SUU (9-2)* … Big Sky
Kennesaw State (10-1)* … Big South
JMU (11-0)* … CAA
NDSU (10-1)* … MVFC
Central Connecticut St. (7-3) … Northeast
Jacksonville State (10-1)* … OVC
Lehigh (5-6)* … could be Colgate, but the Patriot is one-bid only.
San Diego (8-2) … Pioneer
Wofford (10-1)* … SoCon
Central Arkansas (10-1)* … Southland

At-large Bids (14)
Weber (8-3)
Montana (8-3)
Elon (9-2)
Stony Brook (9-2)
Delaware (8-3)
UNH (8-3)
SDSU (8-3)
South Dakota (8-3)
Western Illinois (8-3)
Northern Iowa (6-5)
Samford (8-3)
SHSU (10-1)
McNeese State (9-2)
Nicholls State (9-2)

Other strong records (5)
NAU (7-4)
EWU ( 7-4)
Furman (7-4)
Austin-Peay (8-4)
Eastern Ill. (7-4)
Monmouth (9-2)

This projection includes the somewhat “pushy” notions that the CAA could get five bids and that UNI will get a bid with a 6-5 record. Trim those assumptions and you obviously open up two more at-large bids.
Click to expand...

What about 7-4 SAC, signature victory 54-27 over SUU? It’s a long shot, granted, but they should be in the convo!
 
Kadeezy said:
... What about 7-4 SAC, signature victory 54-27 over SUU? It’s a long shot, granted, but they should be in the convo!
Click to expand...
From the looks of things -- IF the games play out the way I project -- 7-4 teams (other than ones, perhaps, in the MVFC) will be on the outside looking in, no matter what "signature" wins they have.
 
You have UNI listed at 6-5 and in. If they lose to Indiana State (0-9) to fall to 6-5, there’s zero chance they’re in.
 
Igotgoodsources said:
Great input, thoughts, and views. However, slightly over looked is how the ncaa LOVES money!! The question of are the griz in or out is null as long as they finish 8-3. If you think for a second that money isnt discussed in that selection room youre out of your mind. Nothing is more important to the ncaa than money.
Click to expand...

So you have been in the room during the selection process? Also, I couldn't find in the team selection criteria the part about money. Could you help a fella out and post that?
 
IdaGriz01 said:
After looking over all the final matchups, and picking likely winners, here’s how I see the “end game” playing out. In some conferences (the MVFC being one), some of the exact W-L choices don’t really matter, since both teams in the matchup are likely to get bids anyway. Of course, the Griz still have to beat the cats for any of this to matter.

It does not look likely that NC A&T will get upset this year (playing at home), so they will be in the Celebration Bowl … and no other team from the MEAC looks good enough to get an at-large bid. Grambling (6-0, 9-1) could lose to Southern (5-1, 7-3) and be knocked out of the SWAC championship game against Alcorn State, although that seems pretty unlikely. Would a 9-2 (8-2 if you bump their D-II win) Grambling get an at-large bid? Given how weak the rest of their schedule is, I’m assuming no bid in that case.

So here goes:

Automatic Bids (10) … * = favored for auto-bid
SUU (9-2)* … Big Sky
Kennesaw State (10-1)* … Big South
JMU (11-0)* … CAA
NDSU (10-1)* … MVFC
Central Connecticut St. (7-3) … Northeast
Jacksonville State (10-1)* … OVC
Lehigh (5-6)* … could be Colgate, but the Patriot is one-bid only.
San Diego (8-2) … Pioneer
Wofford (10-1)* … SoCon
Central Arkansas (10-1)* … Southland

At-large Bids (14)
Weber (8-3)
Montana (8-3)
Elon (9-2)
Stony Brook (9-2)
Delaware (8-3)
UNH (8-3)
SDSU (8-3)
South Dakota (8-3)
Western Illinois (8-3)
Northern Iowa (6-5)
Samford (8-3)
SHSU (10-1)
McNeese State (9-2)
Nicholls State (9-2)

Other strong records (5)
NAU (7-4)
EWU ( 7-4)
Furman (7-4)
Austin-Peay (8-4)
Eastern Ill. (7-4)
Monmouth (9-2)

This projection includes the somewhat “pushy” notions that the CAA could get five bids and that UNI will get a bid with a 6-5 record. Trim those assumptions and you obviously open up two more at-large bids.
Click to expand...

uofmman1122 said:
You have UNI listed at 6-5 and in. If they lose to Indiana State (0-9) to fall to 6-5, there’s zero chance they’re in.
Click to expand...
If a 6-5 Northern Iowa team gets in the playoffs then there really is a problem with how they select teams
 
uofmman1122 said:
You have UNI listed at 6-5 and in. If they lose to Indiana State (0-9) to fall to 6-5, there’s zero chance they’re in.
Click to expand...
You are absolutely right ... my bad. :oops: :oops:

They are currently 6-4 and will surely stomp Indiana State ... and be in at 7-4. Too many numbers to juggle. For some reason I started with them at 5-5 and then had them going to 6-5. Thanks for catching that, and I'll go up and fix it.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Kadeezy said:
... What about 7-4 SAC, signature victory 54-27 over SUU? It’s a long shot, granted, but they should be in the convo!
Click to expand...
From the looks of things -- IF the games play out the way I project -- 7-4 teams (other than UNI in the MVFC) will be on the outside looking in, no matter what "signature" wins they have.
Click to expand...
 
Not just 7-4, but 2nd in the MVFC. If they win, they’re definitely in.

USD is a much more curious case if they lose this weekend. They’ll be 7-4 from the MVFC, but will have lost 4 of 5 to close the stretch, although all to most likely playoff teams. They did beat Bowling Green and WIU, but got trounced by NDSU yesterday.
 
uofmman1122 said:
Not just 7-4, but 2nd in the MVFC. If they win, they’re definitely in.

USD is a much more curious case if they lose this weekend. They’ll be 7-4 from the MVFC, but will have lost 4 of 5 to close the stretch, although all to most likely playoff teams. They did beat Bowling Green and WIU, but got trounced by NDSU yesterday.
Click to expand...
Good points. They're "on a roll" ... but it's the wrong kind of roll. At least they get SDSU at home.
 
4 Teams have punched a ticket....

Automatic Bids (4/11)
Central Connecticut St. 7-3 (Northeast)
Jacksonville State (Ohio Valley)
San Diego 8-2 (Pioneer)
Wofford (Southern)
 
These are the Key games

-NAU 7-3 at S. Utah 8-2
"Not sure what to make of this game... An NAU win puts S Utah and NAU at 8-3. A SUU win knocks NAU out... SUU is probably in either way so...Go turd birds."

-Delaware 7-3 at Villanova 4-6
"Delaware needs a win... Nova is better then 4-6 team and at home, to be safe go Nova"

-New Hampshire 7-3 at Albany 3-7
"Albany has played most teams tuff.. might they finally break through at home"

-S. Dakota 7-3 vs. SD State 8-2
"Gotta be a SD State fan in this one"

-W. Illinois 7-3 vs. S. Illinois 4-6
"S Ill. is capable of winning this one... doubt it but go SUI!"

-Illinois St. 6-4 vs. ND State 9-1
"If Ill St goes into Fargo and wins it would put them very much in line for a playoff bid... Go Bison"

-N. Iowa 6-4 vs.Indiana St 0-10
"Not a chance in hell Ind St. wins this one, but stranger things have happened"

-Samford 7-3 vs. Furman 7-3
"One of these teams will be 8-3 the other will be 7-4. Samford is more highly thought of so Go Samford"

-Monmouth 9-1 at Kennesaw St.9-1
"One will get the auto bid... one will be 9-2 Monmouth higher ranked but if the Griz hammer msu it would look good when comparing UM and Kennesaw St."

-Austin-Paey 7-4 vs. E Illinois 6-4
"Don't think either is in but to be safe a E. Ill win would be great"

-North Carolina A&T 10-0 vs. NC Central 7-3
"Griz fans need to pull hard for NC A&T! A NC Central win puts them in the "Celebration Bowl" and I bet the committee would catch hell if a 10-1 team does not make the playoffs So Rout for A&T!!!"
 
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