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All the FCS playoff possibilities...

floridagriz15 said:
SUU.
Weber.
Montana.
Those are my BSC predictions for the playoffs. NAU will lose one of two in the coming weeks.
Head to head puts Montana in front of NAU no matter who was the QB in that game. EWU is out at this point. Plus Montana is money and the other three options are not.
Click to expand...

^This. Win out and Griz are in, period.

How they'll finish:

SUU 9-2 (7-1); 9-1 vs FCS, 0-1 vs P5; Autobid and a seed
WSU 9-2 (7-1); 8-1 FCS, 0-1 P5, 1-0 NonD1; At Large
UM 8-3 (6-2); 8-2 FCS, 0-1 P5; At Large

NAU 7-4 (6-2); 7-3 FCS, 0-1 P5; None
EWU 7-4 (6-2); 7-3 FCS, 0-1 P5; None
Sac 7-4 (6-2); 7-3 FCS, 0-1 FBS; None
 
Meant to post this here....

I did get some feedback from Colter, who is very dialed into this stuff. Here was his take:

- Big Sky will only get in 3 teams
- unless they absolutely melt down, both SUU and Weber will be in
- Griz need NAU to win for the Griz win over them to stay a quality win
- Griz also need NAU to lose so they don't steal the last spot from the Griz (catch 22 for sure)
- Griz absolutely need to win out and will more than likely still need some outside help from the big sky or FCS field


So like I was saying, the committee could mess this up if both the Griz and NAU finish 8-3. It's not an automatic this year folks. I wish it was but just too many variables. I think ideally we need NAU to blow up the Cats but then lose to SUU....that way they are 7-4 but they maintain their quality win status for our Griz.

I actually think an NAU loss to the Cats would definitely favor an 8-3 Griz team because in that scenario the Griz own the heads up win over NAU and the Griz would also have a win over a common opponent in MSU and it would knock NAU back to 4 losses. If big Sky takes 3 teams, all of that favors Griz as the 3rd team.
 
I whole lot of people are going to shit if an 8-3 Griz teams misses the playoffs. And as often as people want to say it is a lock, it isn't a lock if Weber, SUU, and NAU are all 8-3 or better.
 
HookedonGriz said:
HelenaHandBasket said:
I whole lot of people are going to shit if an 8-3 Griz teams misses the playoffs. And as often as people want to say it is a lock, it isn't a lock if Weber, SUU, and NAU are all 8-3 or better.
Click to expand...

We are on the same page. We need NAU to lose one of their remaining games. I just realized something that makes that NAU versus Griz pick even worse if both are 8-3..,,

I forgot NAU also beat WIU out of the mvfc. So that would be a win over wiu ( currently ranked 11th) and a win over Illinois State ( currently ranked 17th) and a win over southern Utah ( currently ranked 15th) for NAU.

You factor in that resume and the fact they would be ranked higher than us nationally and finished ahead of us in our own conference those variables may easily outweigh the heads up win the Griz had over the lumberjacks.

If the big sky only takes three we really need northern Arizona to lose to the cats or to SUU.
Click to expand...

NAU lost to WIU.
 
HelenaHandBasket said:
HookedonGriz said:
HelenaHandBasket said:
I whole lot of people are going to shit if an 8-3 Griz teams misses the playoffs. And as often as people want to say it is a lock, it isn't a lock if Weber, SUU, and NAU are all 8-3 or better.
Click to expand...

We are on the same page. We need NAU to lose one of their remaining games. I just realized something that makes that NAU versus Griz pick even worse if both are 8-3..,,

I forgot NAU also beat WIU out of the mvfc. So that would be a win over wiu ( currently ranked 11th) and a win over Illinois State ( currently ranked 17th) and a win over southern Utah ( currently ranked 15th) for NAU.

You factor in that resume and the fact they would be ranked higher than us nationally and finished ahead of us in our own conference those variables may easily outweigh the heads up win the Griz had over the lumberjacks.

If the big sky only takes three we really need northern Arizona to lose to the cats or to SUU.
Click to expand...

NAU lost to WIU.
Click to expand...

My bad! I had quickly glanced and thought they won, which made me even more nervous. Thx!

That's good news then as it tips the scales back to coin flip
 
Posted this in another thread in response to a well thought out post that feels Griz at 8-3 should be a lock.....



This is a good post and is well thought out. I agree with everything you said, but I'm also a biased Griz fan. I still think the committee (non biased, hopefully) could ef it all up. Here is why, I'll play devils advocate....this is of course assuming both teams get to 8-3 and Big Sky only gets in 3 teams:


...................Team A.....................Team B

Record...........8-3...........................8-3
Conf record.....7-1...........................6-2
Home record....5-1...........................5-1
Road Record.....3-2...........................3-2
Win Streak.......2..............................3
Signature wins...ISU, SUU....................NAU
Strength of schedule favors Team A
Conference standing favors Team A
National standing favors Team A
Heads up win favors Team B

I'm assuming on paper, this is what the committee looks at for the most part. Do you see why I'd be hesitant to let them make that call?

When it's this close, I'm sure they drill down further to simple rating system, shared opponents, and what exactly went down in the heads up match up. Not sure if that favors Griz the deeper they go or not. My guess is probably not. We do not want this scenario folks, trust me. NAU needs to lose one of their final 2.
 
I'm 90% confident the Griz are in at 8-3. I would still assume a couple of teams that are on the bubble around the country will fall off these last 2 weeks, I'm just not sure if that will be enough to get the Big Sky 4 teams.
 
If Nau loses you are looking at a team that finished season losing 2 out of last 3 they would be out!
If Montana wins out they will have won 3 in a row and 6 of 7!
I guess that if Nau gets win over SUU they are in and Montana has to hope for 4th Big sky invite.

Montana making playoffs this year and winning a first round game really pays off next year.
They would be ranked top 25 to start year and not have such a hill to climb in polls!
 
Mavman said:
If Nau loses you are looking at a team that finished season losing 2 out of last 3 they would be out!
If Montana wins out they will have won 3 in a row and 6 of 7!
I guess that if Nau gets win over SUU they are in and Montana has to hope for 4th Big sky invite.

Montana making playoffs this year and winning a first round game really pays off next year.
They would be ranked top 25 to start year and not have such a hill to climb in polls!
Click to expand...

There is only an issue if the Griz go 8-3 and end tied with both NAU and SUU. Assuming Weber get the auto-bid, what 8-3 team gets left out if the BSC doesn't get a fourth?
 
HelenaHandBasket said:
Mavman said:
If Nau loses you are looking at a team that finished season losing 2 out of last 3 they would be out!
If Montana wins out they will have won 3 in a row and 6 of 7!
I guess that if Nau gets win over SUU they are in and Montana has to hope for 4th Big sky invite.

Montana making playoffs this year and winning a first round game really pays off next year.
They would be ranked top 25 to start year and not have such a hill to climb in polls!
Click to expand...

There is only an issue if the Griz go 8-3 and end tied with both NAU and SUU. Assuming Weber get the auto-bid, what 8-3 team gets left out if the BSC doesn't get a fourth?
Click to expand...

Montana gets left out. Griz have been outside looking in all season in the polls. Way too many teams with good resumes this year a couple "deserving" teams will get left out. If committee rewards a 7-4 mvfc team or two then that will really mess things up.
The last couple years The BSC has not done worth a crap in playoffs (outside EWU) that may also keep 4 teams from going.
 
Fellas, why are you concerned about the playoffs? You should be concerned about beating the Bobcats.
This Stitt team is playing well, so we should beat the Bobcats which will get us in the play offs. Money could be the deciding factor that gets us in.
 
Spanky said:
Fellas, why are you concerned about the playoffs? You should be concerned about beating the Bobcats.
This Stitt team is playing well, so we should beat the Bobcats which will get us in the play offs. Money could be the deciding factor that gets us in.
Click to expand...

Curious, do you have the at-large selection criteria that lists "money" as a selection factor?
 
I just finished watching the NAU/MSU game, I didn’t know who to root for; the team playing against the Bobcats or the result that would help the Griz get into the playoffs in a very tight year. 24 slots in the playoffs and 30 teams that still have a reasonable chance of getting into the bracket. Which 6 teams will get cut?

Northeast conference will get 1 autobid, probably Central Connecticut as they have a win vs Duquesne

Ohio Valley conference will get 1 autobid in the form of the 9-1 Jacksonville St

Patriot conference will get 1 autobid, which might be in a 4-6 Lehigh team because they have a conference tie breaker vs Colgate

Pioneer  conference will get 1 autobid in U of San Diego

Big South is normally only gets a single team into the post season. This year they have two teams who are 9-1 Monmouth & Kennesaw St. They play each other next week. But will a 9-2 team be kept out of the playoffs?

Southland An 11 team conference, who, like the big sky, don’t play every team each year. They have 4 teams that have 8 wins and none of them play each other next week. It’s hard to foresee cutting any of these teams.

Sam Houston St 9-1 (vs. Houston Baptist)
Central Ark 9-1 (vs. Abilene Cristian)
Nicholls St 8-2 (at SE Louisiana)
McNeese St 8-2 (at Lamar)

Southern W. Carolina looks to finish at 7-5 and would be the first clear cut, unless they upset North Carolina! Either Furman or Samford will end the season at 7-4, firmly placing that team on the bubble.

Wofford 9-1 (at (FBS) S. Carolina)
Furman 7-3 ( at Samford)
Samford 7-3 (vs. Furman)
W. Carolina 7-4 (at (FBS) North Carolina)


CAA The Elon vs JMU looks to be a big game, but will not have any bearing on the Griz making the playoffs. Be sure to root for Villanova(4-6) and Albany(3-7) as that will prevent Delaware or New Hampshire from ending the season at 8-3.

James Madison 9-1 (at Elon)
Elon 8-2 (vs James Madison)
Stony Brook 8-2 (at Maine)
Delaware 7-3 (at Villanova)
New Hampshire 7-3 (at Albany)


Missouri Valley seven wins in the MVC probably has the same value as an eight win season elsewhere. Unless Ill. st upsets the Bison they should be out. Root for winless Indiana St to take down N. Iowa.

ND State 9-1 (at Illinois St)
SD State 8-2 (at S. Dakota)
S. Dakota 7-3 (vs. SD State)
W. Illinois 7-3 (vs. S. Illinois)
Illinois St. 6-4 (vs. ND State)
N. Iowa 6-4 (vs. Indiana St)

Big Sky I normally hope to see a maximum number of Big Sky teams in the playoffs, but this year you gotta’ root against NAU. I have believe that any 7-4 BigSky team is out, sorry EWU.

S. Utah 8-2 (vs. NAU)
Weber 8-2 (vs. ISU)
Montana 7-3 (at msu)
NAU 7-3 (at S. Utah)
EWU 6-4 (vs. PSU)


If 5 of these games go our way, then we should be comfortable Saturday night. If not, then someone with an 8-3 record will be left out, it might be the Griz with our low ranking.

W. Carolina 7-4 at FBS North Carolina :thumb:
Delaware 7-3 at Villanova 4-6 :thumb:
New Hampshire 7-3 at Albany 3-7 :thumb:
Illinois St. 6-4 vs. ND State 9-1 :thumb:
NAU 7-3 at S. Utah 8-2 :thumb:
N. Iowa 6-4 vs. Indiana St 0-8 :thumb:
Samford 7-3 vs. Furman 7-3 (Doesn’t matter who wins)

SoS will make a difference, but i haven't a clue where we stand vs the rest of the field, except that it's on the low side.
 
DrainBramage said:
I just finished watching the NAU/MSU game, I didn’t know who to root for; the team playing against the Bobcats or the result that would help the Griz get into the playoffs in a very tight year. 24 slots in the playoffs and 30 teams that still have a reasonable chance of getting into the bracket. Which 6 teams will get cut?

Northeast conference will get 1 autobid, probably Central Connecticut as they have a win vs Duquesne

Ohio Valley conference will get 1 autobid in the form of the 9-1 Jacksonville St

Patriot conference will get 1 autobid, which might be in a 4-6 Lehigh team because they have a conference tie breaker vs Colgate

Pioneer  conference will get 1 autobid in U of San Diego

Big South is normally only gets a single team into the post season. This year they have two teams who are 9-1 Monmouth & Kennesaw St. They play each other next week. But will a 9-2 team be kept out of the playoffs?

Southland An 11 team conference, who, like the big sky, don’t play every team each year. They have 4 teams that have 8 wins and none of them play each other next week. It’s hard to foresee cutting any of these teams.

Sam Houston St 9-1 (vs. Houston Baptist)
Central Ark 9-1 (vs. Abilene Cristian)
Nicholls St 8-2 (at SE Louisiana)
McNeese St 8-2 (at Lamar)

Southern W. Carolina looks to finish at 7-5 and would be the first clear cut, unless they upset North Carolina! Either Furman or Samford will end the season at 7-4, firmly placing that team on the bubble.

Wofford 9-1 (at (FBS) S. Carolina)
Furman 7-3 ( at Samford)
Samford 7-3 (vs. Furman)
W. Carolina 7-4 (at (FBS) North Carolina)


CAA The Elon vs JMU looks to be a big game, but will not have any bearing on the Griz making the playoffs. Be sure to root for Villanova(4-6) and Albany(3-7) as that will prevent Delaware or New Hampshire from ending the season at 8-3.

James Madison 9-1 (at Elon)
Elon 8-2 (vs James Madison)
Stony Brook 8-2 (at Maine)
Delaware 7-3 (at Villanova)
New Hampshire 7-3 (at Albany)


Missouri Valley seven wins in the MVC probably has the same value as an eight win season elsewhere. Unless Ill. st upsets the Bison they should be out. Root for winless Indiana St to take down N. Iowa.

ND State 9-1 (at Illinois St)
SD State 8-2 (at S. Dakota)
S. Dakota 7-3 (vs. SD State)
W. Illinois 7-3 (vs. S. Illinois)
Illinois St. 6-4 (vs. ND State)
N. Iowa 6-4 (vs. Indiana St)

Big Sky I normally hope to see a maximum number of Big Sky teams in the playoffs, but this year you gotta’ root against NAU. I have believe that any 7-4 BigSky team is out, sorry EWU.

S. Utah 8-2 (vs. NAU)
Weber 8-2 (vs. ISU)
Montana 7-3 (at msu)
NAU 7-3 (at S. Utah)
EWU 6-4 (vs. PSU)


If 5 of these games go our way, then we should be comfortable Saturday night. If not, then someone with an 8-3 record will be left out, it might be the Griz with our low ranking.

W. Carolina 7-4 at FBS North Carolina :thumb:
Delaware 7-3 at Villanova 4-6 :thumb:
New Hampshire 7-3 at Albany 3-7 :thumb:
Illinois St. 6-4 vs. ND State 9-1 :thumb:
NAU 7-3 at S. Utah 8-2 :thumb:
N. Iowa 6-4 vs. Indiana St 0-8 :thumb:
Samford 7-3 vs. Furman 7-3 (Doesn’t matter who wins)
Click to expand...

NAU winning tonight didn't help either UM or EWU because NAU still can win the autobid next week if the beat SUU. Not sure how the tiebreaker against Weber would work, but NAU has a shot at the auto bid next Saturday. Both EWU and UM need SUU to win that game...
 
Playoff Field:

NEC
OVC
Patriot
Pioneer
Big South
SHSU
McNeese
UCA
Nichols
JMU
Elon
Stony brook
UD
UNH
Wofford
Samford/Furman winner
NDSU
SDSU (beating USD)
WIU
UNI (7-4)
SUU (beating NAU)
WSU
UM

Bubble teams for the final slot:
NAU/USD/EWU/2nd Big South Team/Furman/Samford Loser
 
DrainBramage said:
I just finished watching the NAU/MSU game, I didn’t know who to root for; the team playing against the Bobcats or the result that would help the Griz get into the playoffs in a very tight year. 24 slots in the playoffs and 30 teams that still have a reasonable chance of getting into the bracket. Which 6 teams will get cut?

Northeast conference will get 1 autobid, probably Central Connecticut as they have a win vs Duquesne

Ohio Valley conference will get 1 autobid in the form of the 9-1 Jacksonville St

Patriot conference will get 1 autobid, which might be in a 4-6 Lehigh team because they have a conference tie breaker vs Colgate

Pioneer  conference will get 1 autobid in U of San Diego

Big South is normally only gets a single team into the post season. This year they have two teams who are 9-1 Monmouth & Kennesaw St. They play each other next week. But will a 9-2 team be kept out of the playoffs?

Southland An 11 team conference, who, like the big sky, don’t play every team each year. They have 4 teams that have 8 wins and none of them play each other next week. It’s hard to foresee cutting any of these teams.

Sam Houston St 9-1 (vs. Houston Baptist)
Central Ark 9-1 (vs. Abilene Cristian)
Nicholls St 8-2 (at SE Louisiana)
McNeese St 8-2 (at Lamar)

Southern W. Carolina looks to finish at 7-5 and would be the first clear cut, unless they upset North Carolina! Either Furman or Samford will end the season at 7-4, firmly placing that team on the bubble.

Wofford 9-1 (at (FBS) S. Carolina)
Furman 7-3 ( at Samford)
Samford 7-3 (vs. Furman)
W. Carolina 7-4 (at (FBS) North Carolina)


CAA The Elon vs JMU looks to be a big game, but will not have any bearing on the Griz making the playoffs. Be sure to root for Villanova(4-6) and Albany(3-7) as that will prevent Delaware or New Hampshire from ending the season at 8-3.

James Madison 9-1 (at Elon)
Elon 8-2 (vs James Madison)
Stony Brook 8-2 (at Maine)
Delaware 7-3 (at Villanova)
New Hampshire 7-3 (at Albany)


Missouri Valley seven wins in the MVC probably has the same value as an eight win season elsewhere. Unless Ill. st upsets the Bison they should be out. Root for winless Indiana St to take down N. Iowa.

ND State 9-1 (at Illinois St)
SD State 8-2 (at S. Dakota)
S. Dakota 7-3 (vs. SD State)
W. Illinois 7-3 (vs. S. Illinois)
Illinois St. 6-4 (vs. ND State)
N. Iowa 6-4 (vs. Indiana St)

Big Sky I normally hope to see a maximum number of Big Sky teams in the playoffs, but this year you gotta’ root against NAU. I have believe that any 7-4 BigSky team is out, sorry EWU.

S. Utah 8-2 (vs. NAU)
Weber 8-2 (vs. ISU)
Montana 7-3 (at msu)
NAU 7-3 (at S. Utah)
EWU 6-4 (vs. PSU)


If 5 of these games go our way, then we should be comfortable Saturday night. If not, then someone with an 8-3 record will be left out, it might be the Griz with our low ranking.

W. Carolina 7-4 at FBS North Carolina :thumb:
Delaware 7-3 at Villanova 4-6 :thumb:
New Hampshire 7-3 at Albany 3-7 :thumb:
Illinois St. 6-4 vs. ND State 9-1 :thumb:
NAU 7-3 at S. Utah 8-2 :thumb:
N. Iowa 6-4 vs. Indiana St 0-8 :thumb:
Samford 7-3 vs. Furman 7-3 (Doesn’t matter who wins)

SoS will make a difference, but i haven't a clue where we stand vs the rest of the field, except that it's on the low side.
Click to expand...

Very well put together and thanks for taking the time. You are spot on with this. I know it's hard for others to beleive, but a 8-3 Griz team will still need some help from the rest of the field. The biggest single threat is NAU winning next week. I've heard from a few folks now who are more knowledgeable and more dialed in than most of us that all things lean to an 8-3 NAU team over an 8-3 Griz team. Committee uses SRS which gives points for strength of schedule, quality wins, margin of victory, home wins vs road wins, etc. if they start drilling down bt NAU and Griz it can very easily put us out. We al need to be SUU fans next week.
 
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