Yes The Griz Do …

[PDXGrizzly]

7 wins IS earned. The players did that. I think the main argument here is that the history and tradition that the Griz bring to the table gives extra validity. When it comes down to it on the bubble, often times tradition can push you over the edge. Even if the influence was small. The straw that broke the camel’s back, so to speak.

Look at the SRS, which is used by the Committee, as well as ratings services like Sagarin.

I’m not disputing that. I’m saying that program history/tradition is also a factor.

 

[mthoopsfan]

Look at the SRS, which is used by the Committee, as well as ratings services like Sagarin.

I’m not disputing that. I’m saying that program history/tradition is also a factor.

Got it.

 

[GrizGeneral]

deserve a bid. Could have put this on any of several threads, but decided it didn’t quite fit.

As the committee chair said, it came down to comparisons among the (7-4) bubble teams. The baseline for the Griz is that they lost to four teams who made the playoffs, two of whom got seeds. Those Big Sky teams got bids because three of them were/are ranked in the top-10 and the other in the top-25.

Let’s look at some of the competition (all 7-4 except final one):
Austin Peay with two FBS losses. Kiss of death: Blown out (49-20) by unranked Central Arkansas (5-6).
Abilene Christian with one FBS loss. Kiss of death: two losses to unranked Stephen F. Austin (6-5).
North Carolina A&T* with one FBS loss. Kiss of death: Bad loss (38-17) to never-ranked Gardner-Webb (6-5).
Rhode Island with one FBS loss. Kiss of death: None obvious, but low Sagarin ranking (162 versus 69 for Griz).
Youngstown State with one FBS loss. Kiss of death: Late loss to unranked Missouri State (5-6)
UT-Martin with two FBS losses: Kisses of death: Losses to Missouri State (5-6) and Kennesaw State (5-6).
Chattanooga with one FBS loss. Kiss of death: Late loss to never-ranked Western Carolina (6-5).
Mercer with one FBS loss. Kiss of death: Loss to Chattanooga (probably).
Florida A&M (9-2)* with one FBS loss. Kiss of death: Lost badly to Jackson State. Abysmal SOS (244 of 262).
* Wins included a D-II or NAIA opponent.

FWIW: I had this list at the end of yesterday. Except for the (7-4) teams that did get bids, I was most worried about Rhode Island. Besides the FBS game, their losses were all to contenders ... although not ranked nearly as high as what the Griz faced.

Good post Ida! I think another factor had to be that the Griz tried to schedule real opponents for their OOC schedule. We played two MVFC schools, one on the road. Sure, they didn't end up being very decent teams, but if you consider that we played 10 games against teams in the two best conferences, the resume starts looking a lot better. Imagine a Big Ten team scheduling two of their non-conference games against SEC teams...that's an impressive schedule, no matter who you are playing.

 

[Griz2k]

deserve a bid. Could have put this on any of several threads, but decided it didn’t quite fit.

As the committee chair said, it came down to comparisons among the (7-4) bubble teams. The baseline for the Griz is that they lost to four teams who made the playoffs, two of whom got seeds. Those Big Sky teams got bids because three of them were/are ranked in the top-10 and the other in the top-25.

Let’s look at some of the competition (all 7-4 except final one):
Austin Peay with two FBS losses. Kiss of death: Blown out (49-20) by unranked Central Arkansas (5-6).
Abilene Christian with one FBS loss. Kiss of death: two losses to unranked Stephen F. Austin (6-5).
North Carolina A&T* with one FBS loss. Kiss of death: Bad loss (38-17) to never-ranked Gardner-Webb (6-5).
Rhode Island with one FBS loss. Kiss of death: None obvious, but low Sagarin ranking (162 versus 69 for Griz).
Youngstown State with one FBS loss. Kiss of death: Late loss to unranked Missouri State (5-6)
UT-Martin with two FBS losses: Kisses of death: Losses to Missouri State (5-6) and Kennesaw State (5-6).
Chattanooga with one FBS loss. Kiss of death: Late loss to never-ranked Western Carolina (6-5).
Mercer with one FBS loss. Kiss of death: Loss to Chattanooga (probably).
Florida A&M (9-2)* with one FBS loss. Kiss of death: Lost badly to Jackson State. Abysmal SOS (244 of 262).
* Wins included a D-II or NAIA opponent.

FWIW: I had this list at the end of yesterday. Except for the (7-4) teams that did get bids, I was most worried about Rhode Island. Besides the FBS game, their losses were all to contenders ... although not ranked nearly as high as what the Griz faced.

Good post Ida! I think another factor had to be that the Griz tried to schedule real opponents for their OOC schedule. We played two MVFC schools, one on the road. Sure, they didn't end up being very decent teams, but if you consider that we played 10 games against teams in the two best conferences, the resume starts looking a lot better. Imagine a Big Ten team scheduling two of their non-conference games against SEC teams...that's an impressive schedule, no matter who you are playing.

Even Vanderbilt?

I kid, I kid....

 

[ozcat#2]

Quality losses...?

 

['68griz]

Davis is ranked below UM in both the Sagarin and SRS. These systems take into account SOS. Those systems are objective and based on data.

So is the fact that they finished higher than UM in the BSC.

Overall record is more important this time of year than conference record.

 

[Butte5518]

So is the fact that they finished higher than UM in the BSC.

Overall record is more important this time of year than conference record.

not when the overall record is filled with such weak wins....

 

[EverettGriz]

Davis is ranked below UM in both the Sagarin and SRS. These systems take into account SOS. Those systems are objective and based on data.

So is the fact that they finished higher than UM in the BSC.

Which the committee doesn't even consider in conferences with ridiculously unbalanced schedules, like the bsc (#bsc)

 

[bhumble]

Overall record is more important this time of year than conference record.

not when the overall record is filled with such weak wins....
[/quote

1) Davis finished above UM in BSC
2) Davis beat Idaho big.
3) UM lost to Idaho
4) They both have zero FBS wins. Oh UM didn’t have a FBS team
5) Davis finished their last 6 at 5-1. UM 2-4
6) Davis is a better team.

 

[IdaGriz01]

So is the fact that they finished higher than UM in the BSC.

Which the committee doesn't even consider in conferences with ridiculously unbalanced schedules, like the bsc (#bsc)
[/quote]
Same problem in the CAA.

And then what do they make of the Ohio Valley, which is small enough to have a totally balanced schedule? Yet the two top teams didn't play each other ... so they have to go to a coin flip. The NCAA accepts the result, and then have to figure out what to do with the team that lost the coin flip. Only five of UT-Martin's (all wins) were in the conference.

 

[mthoopsfan]

UM is 10th in the Massey ratings.

 

[mthoopsfan]

not when the overall record is filled with such weak wins....
[/quote

1) Davis finished above UM in BSC
2) Davis beat Idaho big.
3) UM lost to Idaho
4) They both have zero FBS wins. Oh UM didn’t have a FBS team
5) Davis finished their last 6 at 5-1. UM 2-4
6) Davis is a better team.

Davis didn't have 7 D-1 wins, which is all but required. Look at what the Committee chair said. Davis is rated below UM in the SRS (which the Committee specifically uses), the Sagarin and the Massey

 

[mthoopsfan]

Quality losses...?

The Committee chair specifically said quality losses are good/positive.

 

[bhumble]

I’m sure they are on their way to Frisco. Just look at how well the Griz played in the last 6 games. Incredible. It’s a lock.

 

[EverettGriz]

I’m sure they are on their way to Frisco. Just look at how well the Griz played in the last 6 games. Incredible. It’s a lock.

Has anyone suggested anything even close to this, or are you just bring an obnoxious asshole yet again? All I’ve seen claimed is that the GRIZ deserved a playoff spot (they absolutely did and you know it, even though it pisses you off), and then substantiated the reasons why.

 

[#15 Fan]

not when the overall record is filled with such weak wins....
[/quote

1) Davis finished above UM in BSC
2) Davis beat Idaho big.
3) UM lost to Idaho
4) They both have zero FBS wins. Oh UM didn’t have a FBS team
5) Davis finished their last 6 at 5-1. UM 2-4
6) Davis is a better team.

By your metric of #2 & #3, the Griz are better as they lost in OT at Sac vs Davis' loss by 6 at Sac, and they lost by 3 at Weber vs Davis' loss by 5 at home to Weber...love me some transitive properties.

Personal opinion, I think the committee looked at the Sac game as a potential win for the Griz, which also makes me think why they got the #2 seed. I think the committee all saw the Griz got screwed on that call, probably would've won that game, and realized they took that team to OT with an inefficient/effective backup QB. Same with Weber....yes, the "quality losses" argument might be lame, but at the end of the day, blowing out the teams you should and losing close games tells the committee they are a better team than some of the other bubble teams. Plus, 6 wins ain't getting in with that many 7-win bubble teams.

 

[mthoopsfan]

By your metric of #2 & #3, the Griz are better as they lost in OT at Sac vs Davis' loss by 6 at Sac, and they lost by 3 at Weber vs Davis' loss by 5 at home to Weber...love me some transitive properties.

Personal opinion, I think the committee looked at the Sac game as a potential win for the Griz, which also makes me think why they got the #2 seed. I think the committee all saw the Griz got screwed on that call, probably would've won that game, and realized they took that team to OT with an inefficient/effective backup QB. Same with Weber....yes, the "quality losses" argument might be lame, but at the end of the day, blowing out the teams you should and losing close games tells the committee they are a better team than some of the other bubble teams. Plus, 6 wins ain't getting in with that many 7-win bubble teams.

Good analysis, 15. Keep posting.

 

[zirge]

IdaGriz went a lot further in depth than I was going to, much appreciated. I was going to post something similar and ask all of the naysayers.... of all teams on the bubble, who would you have put in ahead of the Griz and why? The old "the Griz don’t deserve it" argument is not good enough. Explain in depth why you would replace the Griz with a different team or stop bitching and enjoy (at least) one more game!

Go Griz!

Davis.

Yes!
Davis did have a good team this year (well coached, i might add), with 1 win (San Diego) in the first 5 games is a rough start: 1 loss to FBS, then barely losing to SDSU 2pts and to Weber 5pts, then their blow out loss to MSU........they win out with the exception of SS losing by 6.
Very competitive games with 3 top 10 teams. Humm, sounds familiar
At least they had 1 win against a team with a winning record and made the playoffs!

 

[mthoopsfan]

Davis.

Yes!
Davis did have a good team this year (well coached, i might add), with 1 win in the first 5 games 1 to FBS, barely losing to SDSU 2pts, barely losing to Weber 5pts, then their blow out
loss to MSU then they win out with the exception of SS losing by 6.

Davis didn't have 7-I wins and is rated below the Griz in every rating system, like Sagarin, Massey and SRS, and in the Stats poll. I know some of you have a narrative, but, jeez, trying looking at the reality.

 

[zirge]

neither does Gardner-Webb