Will 8-3 be enough for playoffs?

[osomatt3]

If we go 8-3 we are in. If we go 7-4 we will only get in if we beat the Bobcats, and even that I would say is iffy. You guys are assuming that 20 teams is some kind of shoe- in for the Griz. How did that work out two years ago?

 

[grizfan95]

If we go 8-3 we are in. If we go 7-4 we will only get in if we beat the Bobcats, and even that I would say is iffy. You guys are assuming that 20 teams is some kind of shoe- in for the Griz. How did that work out two years ago?

We didn't have 7 D-1 wins two years ago.

 

[kurtismichael]

I'm with the majority Griz are in at 8-3, 7-4 we'll all be sweating bullets and probably enjoying the Holidays minus the Griz.

 

[AZGrizFan]

Keep in mind the NCAA preference for regionalization...outside of the Southland, virtually every team West of the Mississippi is in the Big Sky Conference...should be interesting when trying to avoid first round matchups between BSC teams.

I'm guessing the Western half consists of 5 BSC, 3 MVC and 2 Southland teams, or possible 4/4/2.

 

[AZGrizFan]

MSU: 9-2, losses to EWU and UM - wins vs UND, Sac, PSU
CPSLO: 10-1, Loss to EWU, win vs PSU, Sac, NAU, ISU, UNC
EWU: 10-1, wins vs CPSLO, MSU, Sac, SUU, UCD, PSU
NAU: 9-2, loss to CPSLO, win vs UND, UCD, ISU, SUU, UNC
Sac: 7-4, loss to MSU and EWU & Cal Poly, win vs WSU & UCD
UND: 5-6, loss to MSU and UM, win vs NAU, SUU, UNC
UM: 8-3, win vs SUU, UND, ISU, WSU, MSU

In this scenario, with the EWU/Cal Poly game a "non-league" game, both end up conference @ 8-0. Can't remember how the autobid is calculated. NAU is 2nd @ 7-1 and UM/MSU tied for 3rd @ 6-2. Sac & UND are on the outside looking in and the five playoff teams are Cal Poly, EWU, MSU, UM and NAU.

 

[CV Griz Fan]

If you look at the games remaining on the Grizzlie's schedule they "could" do it. I don't think anyone can point to any game in the last 5 and say we can't win. I actually am not too worried about the offense. I don't think any of the teams left on our schedule will be able to stop them from running the football. Say what you want about UNC but they are considered to be one of the best run stop defenses in our league. They had two weeks to prepare for the zone read and still couldn't stop it. Montana's secondary is what really makes me nervous. We simply can't cover anyone right now. The opposing receivers are running wide open on almost every play. I think Dennard and Harris are getting better they looked better this week. Hell, even Tulley had a game this week. If we get vastly better in the secondary we could win out AND make the playoffs. I don't see how an 8-3 Montana team with losses against 3 playoff teams does not get in. It will be a tall order for this team to win 5 in a row we have SUU and a very talented quarterback coming to town next week GO GRIZ!

The last five games are definitely winnable for the Griz, Whether they do it, that's another story. What team will they have a "melt down" against? That is the question. ND seems pretty erratic at this point. The Griz may win that game. Is it just me or is the BSC very competitive all of a sudden?

 

[mcg]

So does Poly play both ISU and UNC and neither UM or state? That seems like a wonderfully favorable schedule.

 

[AZGrizFan]

So does Poly play both ISU and UNC and neither UM or state? That seems like a wonderfully favorable schedule.

They got a gift from the scheduling gods this year, for sure. And NAU plays neither Eastern NOR MSU. Another favorable schedule.

 

[nwbikertrash]

I can only see one quality win remaining on the schedule. For the Griz to have a real shot, they will need to dominate all four corners and blow teams out. Squeaking out wins against sub-par opponents does not make for a good playoff atmosphere. I think another factor is how long the investigations are going to take. If there is not a conclusion by the time selections are made, the NCAA may be reluctant to bring in a team with so much baggage.

 

[BWahlberg]

I can only see one quality win remaining on the schedule. For the Griz to have a real shot, they will need to dominate all four corners and blow teams out. Squeaking out wins against sub-par opponents does not make for a good playoff atmosphere. I think another factor is how long the investigations are going to take. If there is not a conclusion by the time selections are made, the NCAA may be reluctant to bring in a team with so much baggage.

I get what you're saying but you'd have to also look at if they do go 8-3 or 7-4 with a loss to MSU none of their losses are "bad" losses either, unless any one of those 4 teams goes in the tank.

 

[griz4life]

No. 3 losses is too much for a conference that will have at least three teams with better records than that at the end of the season. Not to mention that at least two of the teams finishing ahead of Montana, and possibly one tied with them, will also have wins over FBS teams.

 

[nwbikertrash]

I can only see one quality win remaining on the schedule. For the Griz to have a real shot, they will need to dominate all four corners and blow teams out. Squeaking out wins against sub-par opponents does not make for a good playoff atmosphere. I think another factor is how long the investigations are going to take. If there is not a conclusion by the time selections are made, the NCAA may be reluctant to bring in a team with so much baggage.

I get what you're saying but you'd have to also look at if they do go 8-3 or 7-4 with a loss to MSU none of their losses are "bad" losses either, unless any one of those 4 teams goes in the tank.

Any loss is a bad loss. Especially the way they have found ways to lose.

 

[mcg]

So does Poly play both ISU and UNC and neither UM or state? That seems like a wonderfully favorable schedule.

They got a gift from the scheduling gods this year, for sure. And NAU plays neither Eastern NOR MSU. Another favorable schedule.

Both NAU's and Poly's schedules are brutally unfair. It's s**t like this that will result in the end of the BSC (a little extreme I know, but the unbalanced schedules in the old WAC were a big part of the start of the Mountain West Conference).

 

[tourist]

Unless EWU, Cal Poly, NAU, and, ugh!, the Cats take a dive, the Griz have a snowballs chance in hell of getting into the playoffs. Makes me nauseated, but reality is reality. Pass the Phenergan.

 

[PlayerRep]

There is no way the Griz won't get into the playoffs if they are 8-3. They would have just beaten the Cats, presumably a still high ranked team. Their only losses would have been to good and ranked teams, assuming NAU hasn't pulled a fade. They would have 8 D-I wins.

 

[Htowngriz]

I can only see one quality win remaining on the schedule. For the Griz to have a real shot, they will need to dominate all four corners and blow teams out. Squeaking out wins against sub-par opponents does not make for a good playoff atmosphere. I think another factor is how long the investigations are going to take. If there is not a conclusion by the time selections are made, the NCAA may be reluctant to bring in a team with so much baggage.

Don't be a moron. The Griz are in with 8 D1 wins, period, end of story. 7-4 with a loss to MSU would make things pretty hairy, but no way we don't get an at-large with 8-3.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Unless EWU, Cal Poly, NAU, and, ugh!, the Cats take a dive, the Griz have a snowballs chance in hell of getting into the playoffs. Makes me nauseated, but reality is reality. Pass the Phenergan.

Except for MSU, the Griz get to pick on the lower half of the Big Sky during the rest of the season ... teams that are currently a combined 6-17. They should be able to run that table, and if they can't, they certainly don't deserve a shot at the playoffs. My point: Those wins may not (and probably should not) impress the pollsters much. They'd get the Griz back into the rankings, but probably not very high. A win against the kitties would give them a good boost. But would it put them into position to get into the playoffs? I wouldn't count on it unless, as "t" says, the better teams tank.

Of course, leading to that final game, MSU gets teams with a combined 13-10 record (including EWU coming up). Against that schedule, they could well lose a game (perhaps right away :lol: ). When the Griz knock them off, they could then have 2 losses.
Cal Poly is past most of the worst of its schedule, facing teams with a combined 12-15 record before they face NAU (4-1) in their final game. Not easy, so they too might lose one along the way to the end of the season. The might even lose 2 -- but, again, that still keeps them ahead of the Griz in terms of overall record.
EWU has by far the worst road until their final game against PSU (2-4). Those upcoming opponents -- which include both MSU and Cal Poly -- have a combined 19-10 record. They too could easily lose 2 along the way.
NAU, which has just 1 loss right now, has it pretty easy until their final game with Cal Poly. Their opponents before then have a combined 9-19 record. The most likely scenario is that they will win all their games before losing at the end to CP, giving them 2 losses.

But see the results: four top BSC teams with (maybe) 2 losses at the end of the season. Oops. The Griz already have three. Pray for lots of upsets over the next few weeks, folks. Otherwise it looks pretty bleak.

 

[BWahlberg]

8-3 is in, all day long. Thinking otherwise just makes no sense...

 

[argh!]

8-3 is in, all day long. Thinking otherwise just makes no sense...

without a doubt. that would mean 6 straight wins, and before that a bizarre and unlikely loss to a another team that can contend for the title.

 

[LDopaPDX]

I agree with what most others said... 8-3 and you're in, probably without any doubt. 7-4 and I'd say the odds are against you, and it'd take a lot of upsets to set the table in a way that would be advantageous to you.

A few observations:

1. EVERY YEAR, teams look like they are going to finish with a great record and fizzle down the stretch. I'm sure at least 5 top 25 teams lose 3 or more games between now and the end of the season, and the real number will probably be closer to 10.

2. The 7 wins would be fine, the thing that would hurt the Griz is the 4 losses all to FCS opponents. Hard to write off losses to FCS opponents, whereas you can easily do it with FBS opponents, especially BCS.

3. Despite shocking East Coast Bias, the playoff committee still understands some of those buster-conference teams back East play no one of note. An 8-3 Griz are still going to be much better on the field than a 9-2 Albany (or comparable).

4. You guys would draw 25,000 for a playoff game, that's a lot of scratch coming to the NCAA.