What Big Sky Conference Teams make the playoffs in 2013?

[Eriul]

All I have to say is 20 teams... I think that has been lost on most of you

You mean 24.

Right...lol 8-4 gets us in. Math hard

OK here is a math problem. Yes, there will be a test later;
Take 24 teams and subtract 11 for the auto bid conference winners.
Take remaining 13, subtract one for currently undefeated Fordham (9-0).
Of remaining 12, subtract another for either Maine or Towson (whichever isn't auto).
Of remaining 11, subtract another for either McNeese or Sam Houston (whichever isn't...).
Of remaining 10, subtract another (or two) for EWU, NAU, or MSU (whichever isn't auto).
Continue removing the other likely suspects and suddenly those 24 slots are starting to look much less plentiful.

So unless multiple teams begin to implode an 8-4 Montana (which would have to lose 3 of its final 5 games) is looking less likely to get an invite to the playoffs. That said, I believe our Grizzlies finish strong and we don't have to find out if 8-4 was good enough. :ugeek:

Or you can look it in another light that take 11 auto teams... that means the top 13 team basically make it... Now obviously there are some other factors such as top 13 rated teams winning auto qualifiers but it's safe to say anyone above ranking 18 in the league makes it. If we lose to Sac State we will drop pretty far but not out of top 25. Probably somewhere in the 22 range. The next 2 weeks getting us to around 15 with wins.. and obviously a loss to MSU will drop us some more but we will not drop more than 5 or so in that case... There are a TON of factors to factor in... but it's safe to say any top 18 ish teams will make the playoffs and Montana looks pretty solid at making top 18 with a 2-2 record

 

[Robsnotes4u]

You mean 24.

Right...lol 8-4 gets us in. Math hard

OK here is a math problem. Yes, there will be a test later;
Take 24 teams and subtract 11 for the auto bid conference winners.
Take remaining 13, subtract one for currently undefeated Fordham (9-0).
Of remaining 12, subtract another for either Maine or Towson (whichever isn't auto).
Of remaining 11, subtract another for either McNeese or Sam Houston (whichever isn't...).
Of remaining 10, subtract another (or two) for EWU, NAU, or MSU (whichever isn't auto).
Continue removing the other likely suspects and suddenly those 24 slots are starting to look much less plentiful.

So unless multiple teams begin to implode an 8-4 Montana (which would have to lose 3 of its final 5 games) is looking less likely to get an invite to the playoffs. That said, I believe our Grizzlies finish strong and we don't have to find out if 8-4 was good enough. :ugeek:

Or you can look it in another light that take 11 auto teams... that means the top 13 team basically make it... Now obviously there are some other factors such as top 13 rated teams winning auto qualifiers but it's safe to say anyone above ranking 18 in the league makes it. If we lose to Sac State we will drop pretty far but not out of top 25. Probably somewhere in the 22 range. The next 2 weeks getting us to around 15 with wins.. and obviously a loss to MSU will drop us some more but we will not drop more than 5 or so in that case... There are a TON of factors to factor in... but it's safe to say any top 18 ish teams will make the playoffs and Montana looks pretty solid at making top 18 with a 2-2 record

Of whose poll?


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[Eriul]

Right...lol 8-4 gets us in. Math hard

OK here is a math problem. Yes, there will be a test later;
Take 24 teams and subtract 11 for the auto bid conference winners.
Take remaining 13, subtract one for currently undefeated Fordham (9-0).
Of remaining 12, subtract another for either Maine or Towson (whichever isn't auto).
Of remaining 11, subtract another for either McNeese or Sam Houston (whichever isn't...).
Of remaining 10, subtract another (or two) for EWU, NAU, or MSU (whichever isn't auto).
Continue removing the other likely suspects and suddenly those 24 slots are starting to look much less plentiful.

So unless multiple teams begin to implode an 8-4 Montana (which would have to lose 3 of its final 5 games) is looking less likely to get an invite to the playoffs. That said, I believe our Grizzlies finish strong and we don't have to find out if 8-4 was good enough. :ugeek:

Or you can look it in another light that take 11 auto teams... that means the top 13 team basically make it... Now obviously there are some other factors such as top 13 rated teams winning auto qualifiers but it's safe to say anyone above ranking 18 in the league makes it. If we lose to Sac State we will drop pretty far but not out of top 25. Probably somewhere in the 22 range. The next 2 weeks getting us to around 15 with wins.. and obviously a loss to MSU will drop us some more but we will not drop more than 5 or so in that case... There are a TON of factors to factor in... but it's safe to say any top 18 ish teams will make the playoffs and Montana looks pretty solid at making top 18 with a 2-2 record

Of whose poll?


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It's not necessarily through poll but you can go off of sportsnetwork if you want. I think they have more accurate rankings. I'm just saying records aren't everything in the factor and I feel it's SAFE to say the top 18 teams in whichever poll will make it. And Montana is 12/13 respectfully with Montana State at 5. Let's also remember that a loss to MSU barring unforeseen circumstances will only drop us ~3-5 spots.

Regardless we only lost by 5 to EWU with some obvious mistakes. I truly feel we could have won that game with Goodwin. EWU is the most difficult team on our schedule. I fully expect us to go 3-1 in the next 4 games, possibly 4-0.

 

[bigkid]

A lot can happen in the next 4 weeks for every team involved. There is no way anyone can simplify the selection process right now. As far as Montana is concerned they need to concentrate on beating sac st. That's it! :ugeek:

 

[Robsnotes4u]

OK here is a math problem. Yes, there will be a test later;
Take 24 teams and subtract 11 for the auto bid conference winners.
Take remaining 13, subtract one for currently undefeated Fordham (9-0).
Of remaining 12, subtract another for either Maine or Towson (whichever isn't auto).
Of remaining 11, subtract another for either McNeese or Sam Houston (whichever isn't...).
Of remaining 10, subtract another (or two) for EWU, NAU, or MSU (whichever isn't auto).
Continue removing the other likely suspects and suddenly those 24 slots are starting to look much less plentiful.

So unless multiple teams begin to implode an 8-4 Montana (which would have to lose 3 of its final 5 games) is looking less likely to get an invite to the playoffs. That said, I believe our Grizzlies finish strong and we don't have to find out if 8-4 was good enough. :ugeek:

Or you can look it in another light that take 11 auto teams... that means the top 13 team basically make it... Now obviously there are some other factors such as top 13 rated teams winning auto qualifiers but it's safe to say anyone above ranking 18 in the league makes it. If we lose to Sac State we will drop pretty far but not out of top 25. Probably somewhere in the 22 range. The next 2 weeks getting us to around 15 with wins.. and obviously a loss to MSU will drop us some more but we will not drop more than 5 or so in that case... There are a TON of factors to factor in... but it's safe to say any top 18 ish teams will make the playoffs and Montana looks pretty solid at making top 18 with a 2-2 record

Of whose poll?


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It's not necessarily through poll but you can go off of sportsnetwork if you want. I think they have more accurate rankings. I'm just saying records aren't everything in the factor and I feel it's SAFE to say the top 18 teams in whichever poll will make it. And Montana is 12/13 respectfully with Montana State at 5. Let's also remember that a loss to MSU barring unforeseen circumstances will only drop us ~3-5 spots.

Regardless we only lost by 5 to EWU with some obvious mistakes. I truly feel we could have won that game with Goodwin. EWU is the most difficult team on our schedule. I fully expect us to go 3-1 in the next 4 games, possibly 4-0.

You are right records aren't everything, depends on your strength on schedule also. The same goes for scores of games. You weren't really in the EWU game, down by 25 and Baldwin changed his game. If he keeps up the same game plan you lose by the same 25. He almost screwed up like Cal Poly did.

I think the probability go the Griz going 2-2, 3-1, or 4-0 are about the same. Here is the question I ask as a selection committee member.
1. How many teams did they defeat with winning records
2. How many top 25 teams did they play and what was that record
3. What was their strength of schedule
4. Records versus common opponents compared to other bubble teams
5. How many losses in conference
6. What is the record of their opponent in their gets win.


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[Robsnotes4u]

A lot can happen in the next 4 weeks for every team involved. There is no way anyone can simplify the selection process right now. As far as Montana is concerned they need to concentrate on beating sac st. That's it! :ugeek:

Yes everyone is in the same boat, every game is huge right now.


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[get'em_griz]

Just win, baby. Just F***[*] win.

 

[PlayerRep]

All I have to say is 20 teams... I think that has been lost on most of you

You mean 24.

Right...lol 8-4 gets us in. Math hard

OK here is a math problem. Yes, there will be a test later;
Take 24 teams and subtract 11 for the auto bid conference winners.
Take remaining 13, subtract one for currently undefeated Fordham (9-0).
Of remaining 12, subtract another for either Maine or Towson (whichever isn't auto).
Of remaining 11, subtract another for either McNeese or Sam Houston (whichever isn't...).
Of remaining 10, subtract another (or two) for EWU, NAU, or MSU (whichever isn't auto).
Continue removing the other likely suspects and suddenly those 24 slots are starting to look much less plentiful.

So unless multiple teams begin to implode an 8-4 Montana (which would have to lose 3 of its final 5 games) is looking less likely to get an invite to the playoffs. That said, I believe our Grizzlies finish strong and we don't have to find out if 8-4 was good enough. :ugeek:

This is a good start, but you or someone needs to keep going with the analysis. Now, there are 8 remaining spots. Look at the other top teams in various conferences, especially the top conferences; look at their records and remaining schedules; and see how many of them are probably going to be eliminated in the remaining 4/3 games. For example, look at the MV. Note that several of the top teams still have to play NDS, and that some of the top teams already have 4 or 3 losses. Same way with the CAA. SoCon is fairly weak this year, and 2 of the usual playoff teams aren't eligible.

 

[bigkid]

It's no big secret that Montana will need to get past sac st tomorrow. If for nothing else team confidence but IMO we need this game. When that happens we need to put up some numbers against MVC member university of south dakota. An occ match up might actually help us if we can soundly beat them. If we can't beat weber at this stage at home well.......which would set up a winner take all against the cats which will probably be 8-3 at that time. I honestly think the EWU game will be used to motivate this team. It starts tomorrow with sac st. which is a very important game. Griz in at either 9-3 or 10-2.
Go Griz!!

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

As we speak, TSN has the Griz playing Bryant in the first round with the winner going to EWU. I doubt very much TSN is basing that on the Griz winning out either. Interstingly, they also have the Cats hosting in the first round with the winner going to NDSU. I'm sure they're basing it on thinking the Cats last loss will come at EWU and that will drop them. We shall see.

Do any of you geniuses realize the Griz have made the playoffs NUMEROUS TIMES, when they went 8-3 and 8-4 even. Or 9-3 in other 12 game seasons? And twice they were 8-3 with a share of the Big Sky, but did not receive the auto bid, and STILL PLAYED AT HOME in the first round and that was when it was a 16-team playoff!!! Or are all the people saying the Griz might not make it only fans from 2011 on?

Those whole "sadly" stuff is pretty transparent. Some of you think if the Griz don't make it Mick will be gone. NEITHER IS GONNA HAPPEN. Mick won't be gone even if the Griz stumble, and if the Griz beat Sacto and USD they are A LOCK AND could lose to Weebs and the Cats and STILL BE IN. PERIOD. Sorry to tell ya, but those of you hoping for the worst better really start crossing your fingers and doing what you need to do to jinx the Griz.

The Sactown game will tell the tale. I only worry about that game because they Griz always struggle there. Most of their wins there have been hideous. I don't care of they win by one this week, if they get out of Sactown with a W, it's smooth sailing baby.

TSN bases the weekly brackets only on the games played up to that weekend and does not assume outcomes of future games.

 

[NLGrizFan]

The Big Sky will get 3 teams for certain.

Because the Conference GPI is down (5th as of last week), that could shape the committee's opinion on whether they think the Big Sky deserves 4 teams.

EWU has proven they deserve a playoff spot. They have 2 gimmes on the schedule (ISU/PSU) and you would expect them to beat Cal Poly too. Worst case, they are 8-4 with a win over a Top 25 FBS team.

Then it gets murky for UM, MSU, and NAU.

Scenarios:
All three win out, UM over MSU: I think all 3 get in. NAU has a win over UM, UM has a win over MSU, and MSU has a win over EWU. All three will be top 15 GPI.

All three win out, MSU over UM: MSU and NAU would get the nods with wins over UM. UM would be in if the committee thinks the Big Sky was strong enough to earn 4 playoff bids (they'd still have a top 20 GPI). They could very well say that UM didn't beat anyone noteworthy and leave them out at 9-3, also citing a weak Big Sky GPI. This would cause a huge backlash from Griz Nation that I'm sure the committee doesn't really want to deal with. Griz probably in.

If UM/MSU/NAU have a bad loss: UM could still get a win against MSU salvaging a playoff spot. MSU could still get a win against EWU salvaging a playoff spot. NAU would likely be out as their GPI would suffer.


NAU: Pretty simple for them. Win out and playoff-bound. Lose one and probably out.

UM: 9-3 with win over MSU gets them in. 9-3 with loss to MSU may not be enough (but probably in). 8-4 with loss to MSU will probably leave them out, as their GPI would tank. 8-4 with win over MSU probably still gets them in.

MSU: 9-3 would get them in (would have a win over EWU or UM). 8-4 with win over EWU probably is enough for them. 8-4 with loss to EWU and they are out.

DARK HORSE: Southern Utah! If SUU wins out, they would have wins over MSU and NAU - taking NAU's playoff spot, and potentially knocking MSU out of the playoffs too.

Cal Poly and Sacramento State are long shots. They play each other, so one will be eliminated next weekend. Sac St has UM and CP has EWU. Hard to see either one winning out (which is what they would need to even get playoff consideration).

Nice post. The only thing that I don't agree with is SUU. They're highly overrated if you ask me. I think they only put 17 points up against Weber and got manhandled by UCD. I think they scored 3 points in that game. No way they'll see the playoffs this season. They may have beat an FBS team earlier this season but 3 points scored against a 2-6 team. That's not good.