Playoff bid process. UM sells tickets. (Hey that's us!) if we get in we probably get one home game. At 9-2 we definitely will. $.
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What Big Sky Conference Teams make the playoffs in 2013?
- Thread starter CV Griz Fan
- Start date
Grizzlies1982
Well-known member
Eriul said:
The expanded field is not just "at large" teams. It includes additional conference champions which have not been given a slot in the past. An 8-4 Grizzlies can get into the playoffs. Yet to a large extent that will be determined by how many other teams around the country are also sitting with three or four losses. As well as who those teams beat/lost to. .
Havre, I'm not trying to jinx anything. I want our Griz in the playoffs. I've been watching these 1AA/FCS playoffs since the beginning. I know anything is possible when the pairings are announced. I also know that based on the criteria typically used an 8-4 Montana will be in a very weak position to catch a break. When the committee is considering the teams with three/four losses, in part they'll consider the following. None of which favor our Grizzlies:
A) How many of those losses were to FBS teams?
B) Does the team own any wins over an FBS team?
C) Is there a 'quality' win over an FCS high ranking team (ie... No. Iowa pounding McNeese)?
D) Is a team on a roll (won their fianl five games, or lost three of their last five games)?
An 8-4 Montana team may get a playoff shot. Yet it is far less likely than some may think. If there is a large log jam of teams with 8-4 & 8-3 records don't be shocked if the Grizzlies sit at home.
None the less, our 2013 Grizzlies completely control their own fate. This team shouldn't finish at 8-4. If they win out we're earning a bye and second round home game. If they win three of our final four they're in the playoffs with a first round home game. Losing two of these final four may get them in but it is far from certain.
:ugeek:
Robsnotes4u
Well-known member
Grizzlies1982 said:
Great summation
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Grizzlies1982
Well-known member
Robsnotes4u said:
Thank you. I am here to help. It is just what I do.
'68griz said:
:lol: is that Dallas Cowboys crybaby Bryant they're predicting us to play? :lol:
The Big Sky will get 3 teams for certain.
Because the Conference GPI is down (5th as of last week), that could shape the committee's opinion on whether they think the Big Sky deserves 4 teams.
EWU has proven they deserve a playoff spot. They have 2 gimmes on the schedule (ISU/PSU) and you would expect them to beat Cal Poly too. Worst case, they are 8-4 with a win over a Top 25 FBS team.
Then it gets murky for UM, MSU, and NAU.
Scenarios:
All three win out, UM over MSU: I think all 3 get in. NAU has a win over UM, UM has a win over MSU, and MSU has a win over EWU. All three will be top 15 GPI.
All three win out, MSU over UM: MSU and NAU would get the nods with wins over UM. UM would be in if the committee thinks the Big Sky was strong enough to earn 4 playoff bids (they'd still have a top 20 GPI). They could very well say that UM didn't beat anyone noteworthy and leave them out at 9-3, also citing a weak Big Sky GPI. This would cause a huge backlash from Griz Nation that I'm sure the committee doesn't really want to deal with. Griz probably in.
If UM/MSU/NAU have a bad loss: UM could still get a win against MSU salvaging a playoff spot. MSU could still get a win against EWU salvaging a playoff spot. NAU would likely be out as their GPI would suffer.
NAU: Pretty simple for them. Win out and playoff-bound. Lose one and probably out.
UM: 9-3 with win over MSU gets them in. 9-3 with loss to MSU may not be enough (but probably in). 8-4 with loss to MSU will probably leave them out, as their GPI would tank. 8-4 with win over MSU probably still gets them in.
MSU: 9-3 would get them in (would have a win over EWU or UM). 8-4 with win over EWU probably is enough for them. 8-4 with loss to EWU and they are out.
DARK HORSE: Southern Utah! If SUU wins out, they would have wins over MSU and NAU - taking NAU's playoff spot, and potentially knocking MSU out of the playoffs too.
Cal Poly and Sacramento State are long shots. They play each other, so one will be eliminated next weekend. Sac St has UM and CP has EWU. Hard to see either one winning out (which is what they would need to even get playoff consideration).
Because the Conference GPI is down (5th as of last week), that could shape the committee's opinion on whether they think the Big Sky deserves 4 teams.
EWU has proven they deserve a playoff spot. They have 2 gimmes on the schedule (ISU/PSU) and you would expect them to beat Cal Poly too. Worst case, they are 8-4 with a win over a Top 25 FBS team.
Then it gets murky for UM, MSU, and NAU.
Scenarios:
All three win out, UM over MSU: I think all 3 get in. NAU has a win over UM, UM has a win over MSU, and MSU has a win over EWU. All three will be top 15 GPI.
All three win out, MSU over UM: MSU and NAU would get the nods with wins over UM. UM would be in if the committee thinks the Big Sky was strong enough to earn 4 playoff bids (they'd still have a top 20 GPI). They could very well say that UM didn't beat anyone noteworthy and leave them out at 9-3, also citing a weak Big Sky GPI. This would cause a huge backlash from Griz Nation that I'm sure the committee doesn't really want to deal with. Griz probably in.
If UM/MSU/NAU have a bad loss: UM could still get a win against MSU salvaging a playoff spot. MSU could still get a win against EWU salvaging a playoff spot. NAU would likely be out as their GPI would suffer.
NAU: Pretty simple for them. Win out and playoff-bound. Lose one and probably out.
UM: 9-3 with win over MSU gets them in. 9-3 with loss to MSU may not be enough (but probably in). 8-4 with loss to MSU will probably leave them out, as their GPI would tank. 8-4 with win over MSU probably still gets them in.
MSU: 9-3 would get them in (would have a win over EWU or UM). 8-4 with win over EWU probably is enough for them. 8-4 with loss to EWU and they are out.
DARK HORSE: Southern Utah! If SUU wins out, they would have wins over MSU and NAU - taking NAU's playoff spot, and potentially knocking MSU out of the playoffs too.
Cal Poly and Sacramento State are long shots. They play each other, so one will be eliminated next weekend. Sac St has UM and CP has EWU. Hard to see either one winning out (which is what they would need to even get playoff consideration).
Grizzlies1982
Well-known member
Montana Gym Rat said:
Very good assessment.
Though I still think getting in at 8-4 (even with a win over MSU) is a crap shoot. :ugeek:
Grizzlies1982
Well-known member
Eriul said:
OK here is a math problem. Yes, there will be a test later;
Take 24 teams and subtract 11 for the auto bid conference winners.
Take remaining 13, subtract one for currently undefeated Fordham (9-0).
Of remaining 12, subtract another for either Maine or Towson (whichever isn't auto).
Of remaining 11, subtract another for either McNeese or Sam Houston (whichever isn't...).
Of remaining 10, subtract another (or two) for EWU, NAU, or MSU (whichever isn't auto).
Continue removing the other likely suspects and suddenly those 24 slots are starting to look much less plentiful.
So unless multiple teams begin to implode an 8-4 Montana (which would have to lose 3 of its final 5 games) is looking less likely to get an invite to the playoffs. That said, I believe our Grizzlies finish strong and we don't have to find out if 8-4 was good enough. :ugeek:
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