Commentary
New Hampshire at Richmond is the only ranked-teams matchup (outside the Big Sky). Richmond is, you’ll notice, ranked higher than UNH, so they are the “favorite.” In reality, however, the Wildcats lead the CAA right now and play only one contender (Rhode Island) the rest of the way. Richmond is one game back, but must play Delaware and William & Mary the rest of the way. However you look at it, this is a crucial conference game for both teams.
On the records, William & Mary should have no trouble at Hampton. Still, “on any given Saturday” things happen. An upset here could have a major impact on the CAA standings. It would drop the Tribe out of the tie for second place in the conference, and they still have to face Villanova and Richmond. Hampton has a chance to move to a winning record, and would surely love to play the role of spoiler in the conference.
The Monmouth at Delaware game is another one that could have important ramifications for the CAA standings. Of course, there’s always the question: Can the Blue Hens bounce back from their loss at Elon? They have now lost two of their last three games. The two losses were both in conference, dropping them into a three-way tie for fifth place in the CAA. After Monmouth, they still have to play Richmond and Villanova, so this is pretty much a “must win” for them.
Monmouth is out of the running for anything, so they’ll be playing for pride and, like Hampton, the chance to be the spoiler. And we must not overlook the fact that the Pirates went into Villanova and knocked them off … at a time when ‘Nova was ranked.
Villanova at Towson is another “must win” game, this time for the visiting team. At this stage of the season, no one wants to pick up that fourth loss. More to the point – if you were keeping track above – the Wildcats close the season with William & Mary and Delaware. They might possibly split those two, but that would still mean five losses unless they take care of business at Towson.
Plus, let’s not overlook Towson, despite their losing record. First, one of the losses was to an FBS opponent. Beyond that, the Tigers have played (and lost to) four of the top five teams in the CAA. I’d venture to say they’ve probably played the toughest schedule in the conference.
The OOC game with Kennesaw State at UT Martin is crucial for the Skyhawks in the OVC. They must avoid another loss, which could lead them to a final 7-4 record. Why should that matter? Because the OVC auto-bid seems to be totally up in the air. You think the BSC schedule is a mess? Not even close. The Ohio Valley currently has seven teams. Perfect, right? Everybody plays everybody else. Wrong again. UTM is now 3-0 in conference, with two conference games to go. They are now a half game ahead of Southeast Missouri State (2-0 in conference). SEMO has three conference games remaining. I had to triple-check their schedules but … UTM and SEMO have not, and will not play each other this season. How nuts is that?! So, assuming both win out in conference, the “championship” and auto-bid will depend upon whatever tie-breakers they use. If the Skyhawks lose out on that, they have no chance to be in the bid conversation at 7-4.
Kennesaw State doesn’t have much to play for, except to be ready for their transition to FBS (Independent) next year. After a slow start, the Owls have been steadily improving, and have won two in a row.
I included the SE Missouri State at Tennessee State game because of how it interacts with the UT Martin game(s). As noted above, those two teams never go head-to-head. The championship will depend upon how the tie-breakers go. Tennessee State is one of the common opponent games that will surely be used to determine those tie-breakers. Despite their sad overall record, Tennessee State is actually still in the running for the OVC title (and auto-bid). A win over SEMO would pull the Tigers into second place (at 3-1 in conference). UT Martin plays OOC this week, so they are not at risk on the conference record. However, the next game for Tennessee State is at home against UT Martin. Win that and they’d finish tied for the conference title, with head-to-head tie-breakers over their main competitors. Unlikely? Amazing? Sure, but stranger things have happened in FCS football.
Northern Iowa keeps turning up … like, as the saying goes, “a bad penny.” Playing at home, could they knock off South Dakota State? I wouldn’t rule that out, and included this choice for those masochists who like to predict the worst.
I included the Jackson State at Texas Southern game for those who select upsets they’d like to see happen, even if they don’t seem very likely. The difference in records is offset somewhat by the fact that two of Texas Southern’s losses were to FBS opponents (one good, one very good). Perhaps a home crowd will be enough to put them over the top.
. Also picked UNH.
