UM Spring Enrollment Numbers?

[ilovethecats]

In my opinion, there are 3 factors that got us to this point of low enrollment, 2 of the 3 won't be fixed anytime soon. The first is slowly disappearing with time.

1) bad press around rape charges - some of that press was certainly justified, but not all of it - this will only disappear with time
2) the move towards engineering and other hard science degrees - Business, Teaching degrees and pharmacy are all down, the upside of potential earning don't match to the current engineering push - law school is a small enrollment and law/politics has gotten nothing but increasing bad press in the past 10yrs
3) current political climate - Montana is what...70% Republican ??? - Liberal Missoula is not high on the list for these parents to send their kids and money. Right or wrong, the divisiveness has made Missoula and the "liberal education" a negative for U of M

I really don’t think anyone gives a shit about #3. Bozeman is quickly becoming just as liberal as Missoula, and that trend will continue as more Californians continue to pile in to Bozeman.

If Texans keep moving here in droves maybe they'll cancel each other out?

 

[Griz til I die]

I really don’t think anyone gives a shit about #3. Bozeman is quickly becoming just as liberal as Missoula, and that trend will continue as more Californians continue to pile in to Bozeman.

If Texans keep moving here in droves maybe they'll cancel each other out?

That's what I've heard is apparently we're beginning to see an influx of texans too. I'd love to see the numbers on that a bit closer and the ratio of californians to texans to other states. I think that would be very fascinating to look at. The other thing to consider is where are these people coming from in California and Texas? If they're coming from the major cities then it's likely that the majority of them are dems regardless of which state it is, but if they are coming from more rural parts of each state, then it could begin to balance out. I tend to think the former is true over the latter, as I think most of these people are trying to escape the big city lifestyle and that's why they're coming to Montana in the first place.

 

[CDAGRIZ]

In my opinion, there are 3 factors that got us to this point of low enrollment, 2 of the 3 won't be fixed anytime soon. The first is slowly disappearing with time.

1) bad press around rape charges - some of that press was certainly justified, but not all of it - this will only disappear with time
2) the move towards engineering and other hard science degrees - Business, Teaching degrees and pharmacy are all down, the upside of potential earning don't match to the current engineering push - law school is a small enrollment and law/politics has gotten nothing but increasing bad press in the past 10yrs
3) current political climate - Montana is what...70% Republican ??? - Liberal Missoula is not high on the list for these parents to send their kids and money. Right or wrong, the divisiveness has made Missoula and the "liberal education" a negative for U of M

I really don’t think anyone gives a shit about #3. Bozeman is quickly becoming just as liberal as Missoula, and that trend will continue as more Californians continue to pile in to Bozeman.

I'm with you there. There aren't very many college campuses that don't lean left. Liberty and BYU? But that's more due to the religious stuff. I think there is a Claremont College that leans right. Sure, I wouldn't want my kid to go extreme either way, like Liberty or Oberlin or something, but I can't see a big enough difference between Bozeman and Missoula to make that a deciding factor for parents. Maybe grandparents would have the time to care about that, IDK. Lastly, I always think it's funny when people think Missoula is some crazy liberal paradise. Oh, my sweet summer child . . .

EDIT: Not trying to suggest you think that. I agree with you.

 

[CDAGRIZ]

If Texans keep moving here in droves maybe they'll cancel each other out?

That's what I've heard is apparently we're beginning to see an influx of texans too. I'd love to see the numbers on that a bit closer and the ratio of californians to texans to other states. I think that would be very fascinating to look at. The other thing to consider is where are these people coming from in California and Texas? If they're coming from the major cities then it's likely that the majority of them are dems regardless of which state it is, but if they are coming from more rural parts of each state, then it could begin to balance out. I tend to think the former is true over the latter, as I think most of these people are trying to escape the big city lifestyle and that's why they're coming to Montana in the first place.

Counterpoint: Do you think it's possible that if (1) they are super liberal, (2) their political identity is so important to them that it's part of their daily lives and affects others, maybe they wouldn't move to Montana? Maybe the people moving there have similar ideologies to those who grew up there? I don't have boots on the ground in Bozeman, but I've been there a few times over the last couple years. Other than having a few gastropubs that seemed new, I got absolutely zero (Southern, at least) California vibes. Definitely felt Bozeman, Montana . . . with more buildings than I remembered.

Question for the room: What are all these crazy Californians doing for work in Bozeman? Is it mostly retirees, or WFH people?

 

[SACCAT66]

That's what I've heard is apparently we're beginning to see an influx of texans too. I'd love to see the numbers on that a bit closer and the ratio of californians to texans to other states. I think that would be very fascinating to look at. The other thing to consider is where are these people coming from in California and Texas? If they're coming from the major cities then it's likely that the majority of them are dems regardless of which state it is, but if they are coming from more rural parts of each state, then it could begin to balance out. I tend to think the former is true over the latter, as I think most of these people are trying to escape the big city lifestyle and that's why they're coming to Montana in the first place.

Counterpoint: Do you think it's possible that if (1) they are super liberal, (2) their political identity is so important to them that it's part of their daily lives and affects others, maybe they wouldn't move to Montana? Maybe the people moving there have similar ideologies to those who grew up there? I don't have boots on the ground in Bozeman, but I've been there a few times over the last couple years. Other than having a few gastropubs that seemed new, I got absolutely zero (Southern, at least) California vibes. Definitely felt Bozeman, Montana . . . with more buildings than I remembered.

Question for the room: What are all these crazy Californians doing for work in Bozeman? Is it mostly retirees, or WFH people?

I don't know what WFH stands for, but a lot of them are people that work remote for Tech companies. Sure, lots are also people that have retired early for one reason or another, but most are people that can work anywhere, but have chosen Bozeman because they are spending less for an apartment here as in New York, or Chicago.

 

[PlayerRep]

Missoula is far more liberal than Bozeman, although Bozeman is changing. I think the political reputations of the two places do in fact affect college choices, to some extent. Not a huge factor, tho. The bulk of my family still lives in Bozeman, and I went to high school and junior high there. I like Missoula better, but not because of the political views of either place. Missoula is just a better town, in my view. Downtown is set up better geographically (rectangle not bowling alley), is more eclectic, and has river running through it. Missoula's larger population is a bonus too. Missoula is closer to Flathead lake and better other lakes. Bozeman has much better skiing and more tech. Bozeman housing is more expensive (it's been a great place for a family lumberyard). I like Bozeman too.

 

[Iowagriz]

Regardless of which way the actual city leans, or the fact that colleges themselves lean liberal - any college with the Ag school will definitely have the perception of Republican vs the Liberal Arts schools.

Iowa vs Iowa State is exactly the same way. Washington vs WSU and I'm sure others that I"m not as familiar with.

 

[CDAGRIZ]

Counterpoint: Do you think it's possible that if (1) they are super liberal, (2) their political identity is so important to them that it's part of their daily lives and affects others, maybe they wouldn't move to Montana? Maybe the people moving there have similar ideologies to those who grew up there? I don't have boots on the ground in Bozeman, but I've been there a few times over the last couple years. Other than having a few gastropubs that seemed new, I got absolutely zero (Southern, at least) California vibes. Definitely felt Bozeman, Montana . . . with more buildings than I remembered.

Question for the room: What are all these crazy Californians doing for work in Bozeman? Is it mostly retirees, or WFH people?

I don't know what WFH stands for, but a lot of them are people that work remote for Tech companies. Sure, lots are also people that have retired early for one reason or another, but most are people that can work anywhere, but have chosen Bozeman because they are spending less for an apartment here as in New York, or Chicago.

You got it. Work From Home. My best friend is a fairly prominent real estate broker here, and he's helped several families relocate to Rocky Mountain towns, including Bozeman. He says, in his experience, most of them are fleeing CA for financial AND political reasons, which is kind of the point I was trying to make re: the Californians you are getting probably aren't the wackos that some people seem to fear so much. Not sure, just a thought.

As an aside, he tells me the problem is a lot of native Californians don't anticipate the drastic change in climate and want to come back after a few years, but can't financially. Just in his experience. Anecdotal.

 

[retiredpopo]

Regardless of which way the actual city leans, or the fact that colleges themselves lean liberal - any college with the Ag school will definitely have the perception of Republican vs the Liberal Arts schools.

Iowa vs Iowa State is exactly the same way. Washington vs WSU and I'm sure others that I"m not as familiar with.

NDSU and UND oh wait nix that.

 

[argh!]

I don't know what WFH stands for, but a lot of them are people that work remote for Tech companies. Sure, lots are also people that have retired early for one reason or another, but most are people that can work anywhere, but have chosen Bozeman because they are spending less for an apartment here as in New York, or Chicago.

You got it. Work From Home. My best friend is a fairly prominent real estate broker here, and he's helped several families relocate to Rocky Mountain towns, including Bozeman. He says, in his experience, most of them are fleeing CA for financial AND political reasons, which is kind of the point I was trying to make re: the Californians you are getting probably aren't the wackos that some people seem to fear so much. Not sure, just a thought.

As an aside, he tells me the problem is a lot of native Californians don't anticipate the drastic change in climate and want to come back after a few years, but can't financially. Just in his experience. Anecdotal.

somebody is buying those houses and apartments, because the housing market doesn't seem to be doing anything but going up. look at the yearly change of house prices (up a lot), not the percent change from december to january.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/california-housing-market-momentum-continues-into-new-year-car-reports-301231805.html

 

[SACCAT66]

I don't know what WFH stands for, but a lot of them are people that work remote for Tech companies. Sure, lots are also people that have retired early for one reason or another, but most are people that can work anywhere, but have chosen Bozeman because they are spending less for an apartment here as in New York, or Chicago.

You got it. Work From Home. My best friend is a fairly prominent real estate broker here, and he's helped several families relocate to Rocky Mountain towns, including Bozeman. He says, in his experience, most of them are fleeing CA for financial AND political reasons, which is kind of the point I was trying to make re: the Californians you are getting probably aren't the wackos that some people seem to fear so much. Not sure, just a thought.

As an aside, he tells me the problem is a lot of native Californians don't anticipate the drastic change in climate and want to come back after a few years, but can't financially. Just in his experience. Anecdotal.

The housing market is nuts in Bozeman right now... couple of my realtor friends have told me that most houses that hit the market have an average of 10 offers within the first hour, all those offers being cash sales sight unseen. The Wife and I bought our house 3 years ago for $400,000.... It just appraised at $640,000. Getting back on topic, the housing market in Bozeman will be an issue for MSU soon. Students aren't going to be able to afford school and rent with just a part-time job...

 

[Bear Spray]

You got it. Work From Home. My best friend is a fairly prominent real estate broker here, and he's helped several families relocate to Rocky Mountain towns, including Bozeman. He says, in his experience, most of them are fleeing CA for financial AND political reasons, which is kind of the point I was trying to make re: the Californians you are getting probably aren't the wackos that some people seem to fear so much. Not sure, just a thought.

As an aside, he tells me the problem is a lot of native Californians don't anticipate the drastic change in climate and want to come back after a few years, but can't financially. Just in his experience. Anecdotal.

The housing market is nuts in Bozeman right now... couple of my realtor friends have told me that most houses that hit the market have an average of 10 offers within the first hour, all those offers being cash sales sight unseen. The Wife and I bought our house 3 years ago for $400,000.... It just appraised at $640,000. Getting back on topic, the housing market in Bozeman will be an issue for MSU soon. Students aren't going to be able to afford school and rent with just a part-time job...

I grew up in Kalispell & have lived in Bozeman since 1981. I've sampled 75 +/- new homeowners to Bozeman over 31 years ( I work with more realtors than anyone should ever have to ) to see why they moved here and where they came from. While it's a small sample, it's still over 31 years. Including 2020, the majority of newbies are not from California. Washington leads the way by far & this last year they're coming in from everywhere else too. I do agree that the folks who move here from warmer climes don't last long as a group, and I've insured multiple homes for multiple owners. Most homes don't get listed here - they simply are sold in house at the real estate firm without ever hitting the market. It's crazy. But our problems aren't being caused by Californians, Texans, or Griz fans, they're being caused by demand for a better place to live crushing supply. Try to buy a lot to build on in Bozeman - I'd rather have a root canal.

 

[PlayerRep]

"Interest Surges in Top Colleges, While Struggling Ones Scrape for Applicants"

"The nation’s most-selective four-year institutions, both public and private, saw a record-breaking 17 percent increase in applications this year, according to the Common App. Small liberal arts schools felt a boon, with applications to Haverford and Swarthmore increasing by 16 percent and 12 percent, respectively. So did large state schools like the University of California, Los Angeles, where freshman applications increased 28 percent.

Applications to the primary campus at Penn State, a Big Ten School, increased by 11 percent. Harvard saw a whopping 42 percent spike, while Colgate University in upstate New York received 103 percent more applications.

Twice as many people applied to Colgate University in Hamilton, N.Y.

But smaller or less recognizable institutions, both public and private, saw precipitous declines.

Applications fell by 14 percent at the State University of New York, the largest public college system in the country. At Portland State in Oregon, freshman applications were down 12 percent and transfers down 28 percent. Loyola University Maryland, a private liberal arts school in Baltimore, has seen a 12 percent drop in total applications, even after extending its deadline by two weeks.

The declines come at a time when colleges and universities have been battered financially by the coronavirus, with estimated losses of more than $120 billion from plunging enrollment and dried-up revenue streams like food services and athletic events."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/20/us/colleges-covid-applicants.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage