UM No. 1 in Conference Scoring Defense and Red Zone Defense

[AZGrizFan]

From the ESPN game summary:

So you believe everything you read on face value? You probably still think the griz have a solid D based on what you read after the opsu game.

Well, I'll believe what I read in ESPN over the drivel you post.

How bout your own Colter Nuanez

"Montana State held a 29-point lead, but DeNarius McGhee would not stop pestering Rob Ash.

With a little more than 12 minutes to play in No. 8 Montana State’s 36-7 win over No. 15 Northern Arizona, Montana State’s star quarterback got planted by an NAU pass rusher. McGhee, who missed three weeks and two starts with a separated right (throwing) shoulder, jogged gingerly to the sidelines. A few plays later, he was begging Ash to let him return to the game.

“He’s fine,” Montana State’s seventh-year head coach said during the post-game press conference. “He came off, he wanted to go back in. He was driving me crazy wanting to go back in. I said, ‘No, Jake (Bleskin) will be fine, he can hand the ball off, DeNarius.”

Thanks,'79. :thumb: Glad to hear he's ok.

 

[lynn sellegren]

I once or twice (maybe 5 or 10 times) posted on Bobcat Nation......a couple messages about "ranked #1 but then not making the semis in the playoffs" comments. I was banned almost instantly. Why don't we send "observer" down the road to play on the EWU board?

I think this guy was already banned as 2506.

 

[Chester Cheetah]

Nope, conference only stats are not meaningful early in the conference season (only 2 games). At this point of the season, the full season stats with 5/6 games) are clearly more meaningful.

In the categories listed above for the full season, the Cats are: no. 2 in scoring offense (behind UM), no. 2 in total defense, no. 4 in scoring defense (behind UM), no. 7 in pass defense (behind UM), and no. 3 in rush defense (behind UM).

Talk about cherry picking stats. I also point out that the stats I first posted above, were posted without commentary. They are what they are. No comment was made to say how good the Griz D is or isn't. No comparison was made to the Cats. Then insecure Cat posters had to attack the stats, and not pick out 2 games of stats when there are 6 available. The level of insecurity among some Cat fans is very significant.

You are wrong there, first of all neither group of stats are very useful until later in the season, but at this point the conf only stats are better with only a couple of games than the full stats are. The reason is that some teams have played 2 FBS games, some have played 2 DII games and everywhere else the quality of non conference opponent is too varied to give any useful data for comparison purposes.

This early in the season you really should refrain from placing any weight on the stats and ranking, each game should really be considered in its own little bubble. If you are going to go to statistical ranking you should stick with those that provide the most common level of opponent which is the conference only stats.

Nope, you are dead wrong, as you normally are. 6/5 games of stats are becoming quite meaningful. Picking 2 games out of 6 is what is truly meaningful. You are just being silly.

The only reasonable conclusion I can come to is that you are intentionally being ignorant, no thoughtful person could naturally be that misinformed.

When looking at any data set for statistical analysis you first need to look at the data points and the quantity of the data. Generally speaking the more data the better, but in this case we have few data points and many outliers. it makes no sense to give the same weight to the UM vs Panhandle State game as you do to the EWU vs Oregon State game, they simply do not both belong to the same data set and give us no real value in comparing UM and EWU to each other. The problem is compounded when some teams have multiple outliers against FBS teams and some have multiple outliers against DII teams. So given the limited data points we really need to drop those outliers from the data set.

We are given 2 options of data sets, the conference only which throws out all outliers and a few more, or the full stats which includes all outliers. Since the outliers greatly skew the data at this point and they skew in unequally also, the only reasonable thing is to avoid using the full stats at this point. Ideally we would have a 3rd option of FCS only but that is not available.

In addition I would say that it is still far to early to be starting threads about who is and is not ranked highly in the stats, especially when you are basing it on the least accurate data set available.

 

[theobserver]

Nope, conference only stats are not meaningful early in the conference season (only 2 games). At this point of the season, the full season stats with 5/6 games) are clearly more meaningful.

In the categories listed above for the full season, the Cats are: no. 2 in scoring offense (behind UM), no. 2 in total defense, no. 4 in scoring defense (behind UM), no. 7 in pass defense (behind UM), and no. 3 in rush defense (behind UM).

Talk about cherry picking stats. I also point out that the stats I first posted above, were posted without commentary. They are what they are. No comment was made to say how good the Griz D is or isn't. No comparison was made to the Cats. Then insecure Cat posters had to attack the stats, and not pick out 2 games of stats when there are 6 available. The level of insecurity among some Cat fans is very significant.

You are wrong there, first of all neither group of stats are very useful until later in the season, but at this point the conf only stats are better with only a couple of games than the full stats are. The reason is that some teams have played 2 FBS games, some have played 2 DII games and everywhere else the quality of non conference opponent is too varied to give any useful data for comparison purposes.

This early in the season you really should refrain from placing any weight on the stats and ranking, each game should really be considered in its own little bubble. If you are going to go to statistical ranking you should stick with those that provide the most common level of opponent which is the conference only stats.

Nope, you are dead wrong, as you normally are. 6/5 games of stats are becoming quite meaningful. Picking 2 games out of 6 is what is truly meaningful. You are just being silly.

The only reasonable conclusion I can come to is that you are intentionally being ignorant, no thoughtful person could naturally be that misinformed.

When looking at any data set for statistical analysis you first need to look at the data points and the quantity of the data. Generally speaking the more data the better, but in this case we have few data points and many outliers. it makes no sense to give the same weight to the UM vs Panhandle State game as you do to the EWU vs Oregon State game, they simply do not both belong to the same data set and give us no real value in comparing UM and EWU to each other. The problem is compounded when some teams have multiple outliers against FBS teams and some have multiple outliers against DII teams. So given the limited data points we really need to drop those outliers from the data set.

We are given 2 options of data sets, the conference only which throws out all outliers and a few more, or the full stats which includes all outliers. Since the outliers greatly skew the data at this point and they skew in unequally also, the only reasonable thing is to avoid using the full stats at this point. Ideally we would have a 3rd option of FCS only but that is not available.

In addition I would say that it is still far to early to be starting threads about who is and is not ranked highly in the stats, especially when you are basing it on the least accurate data set available.

+1... :clap:

With all due respect, not being an accounting school, UM fans and alum don't understand Statistics. ....errrr.. wait.....

 

[theobserver]

I once or twice (maybe 5 or 10 times) posted on Bobcat Nation......a couple messages about "ranked #1 but then not making the semis in the playoffs" comments. I was banned almost instantly. Why don't we send "observer" down the road to play on the EWU board?

well were you polite like me... or a flame thrower like most of the griz posters on BN??....

 

[AZGrizFan]

We are given 2 options of data sets, the conference only which throws out all outliers and a few more, or the full stats which includes all outliers. Since the outliers greatly skew the data at this point and they skew in unequally also, the only reasonable thing is to avoid using the full stats at this point. Ideally we would have a 3rd option of FCS only but that is not available.

In addition I would say that it is still far to early to be starting threads about who is and is not ranked highly in the stats, especially when you are basing it on the least accurate data set available.

I agree with your point here and too wish we had that third option. THAT set of statistics would be much more valuable to compare team strengths and weaknesses, even 3-4 games in.

 

[PlayerRep]

Nope, conference only stats are not meaningful early in the conference season (only 2 games). At this point of the season, the full season stats with 5/6 games) are clearly more meaningful.

In the categories listed above for the full season, the Cats are: no. 2 in scoring offense (behind UM), no. 2 in total defense, no. 4 in scoring defense (behind UM), no. 7 in pass defense (behind UM), and no. 3 in rush defense (behind UM).

Talk about cherry picking stats. I also point out that the stats I first posted above, were posted without commentary. They are what they are. No comment was made to say how good the Griz D is or isn't. No comparison was made to the Cats. Then insecure Cat posters had to attack the stats, and not pick out 2 games of stats when there are 6 available. The level of insecurity among some Cat fans is very significant.

You are wrong there, first of all neither group of stats are very useful until later in the season, but at this point the conf only stats are better with only a couple of games than the full stats are. The reason is that some teams have played 2 FBS games, some have played 2 DII games and everywhere else the quality of non conference opponent is too varied to give any useful data for comparison purposes.

This early in the season you really should refrain from placing any weight on the stats and ranking, each game should really be considered in its own little bubble. If you are going to go to statistical ranking you should stick with those that provide the most common level of opponent which is the conference only stats.

Nope, you are dead wrong, as you normally are. 6/5 games of stats are becoming quite meaningful. Picking 2 games out of 6 is what is truly meaningful. You are just being silly.

The only reasonable conclusion I can come to is that you are intentionally being ignorant, no thoughtful person could naturally be that misinformed.

When looking at any data set for statistical analysis you first need to look at the data points and the quantity of the data. Generally speaking the more data the better, but in this case we have few data points and many outliers. it makes no sense to give the same weight to the UM vs Panhandle State game as you do to the EWU vs Oregon State game, they simply do not both belong to the same data set and give us no real value in comparing UM and EWU to each other. The problem is compounded when some teams have multiple outliers against FBS teams and some have multiple outliers against DII teams. So given the limited data points we really need to drop those outliers from the data set.

We are given 2 options of data sets, the conference only which throws out all outliers and a few more, or the full stats which includes all outliers. Since the outliers greatly skew the data at this point and they skew in unequally also, the only reasonable thing is to avoid using the full stats at this point. Ideally we would have a 3rd option of FCS only but that is not available.

In addition I would say that it is still far to early to be starting threads about who is and is not ranked highly in the stats, especially when you are basing it on the least accurate data set available.

As you admit, more games are better than fewer games. Most of the conference has D-II games at this point, so those aren't outlier games. Feel free to throw out what you believe are the occasional outliers (like EWU v. Oregon St), but you don't then pick only 2 games when each team already has 6 or 5 games played. The outliers aren't skewing the stats in any significant respect. Picking 2 games out of 6/5 is what would skew the stats and be totally invalid.

I started the thread by summarizing where UM was ranked in the defensive stats compiled and posted by conference. No comparisons were made to specific conference teams. No conclusions whatsoever were drawn. The stats are what they are. If you have a complaint, take it to the league office. They posted the stats.

 

[mcg]

From the ESPN game summary:

So you believe everything you read on face value? You probably still think the griz have a solid D based on what you read after the opsu game.

Well, I'll believe what I read in ESPN over the drivel you post.

How bout your own Colter Nuanez

"Montana State held a 29-point lead, but DeNarius McGhee would not stop pestering Rob Ash.

With a little more than 12 minutes to play in No. 8 Montana State’s 36-7 win over No. 15 Northern Arizona, Montana State’s star quarterback got planted by an NAU pass rusher. McGhee, who missed three weeks and two starts with a separated right (throwing) shoulder, jogged gingerly to the sidelines. A few plays later, he was begging Ash to let him return to the game.

“He’s fine,” Montana State’s seventh-year head coach said during the post-game press conference. “He came off, he wanted to go back in. He was driving me crazy wanting to go back in. I said, ‘No, Jake (Bleskin) will be fine, he can hand the ball off, DeNarius.”

I read the Ash quote and wondered what it says about the back-up quarterback's skill set.

 

[Chester Cheetah]

As you admit, more games are better than fewer games. Most of the conference has D-II games at this point, so those aren't outlier games. Feel free to throw out what you believe are the occasional outliers (like EWU v. Oregon St), but you don't then pick only 2 games when each team already has 6 or 5 games played. The outliers aren't skewing the stats in any significant respect. Picking 2 games out of 6/5 is what would skew the stats and be totally invalid.

I started the thread by summarizing where UM was ranked in the defensive stats compiled and posted by conference. No comparisons were made to specific conference teams. No conclusions whatsoever were drawn. The stats are what they are. If you have a complaint, take it to the league office. They posted the stats.

Here is the flaw in your thinking, since it is not apparent to you. EWU has 2 FBS games that are outliers in one direction, PSU has 2 DII games that are outliers in another direction. That means that PSU's highly ranked offense is very suspect since it is based on 1/3 of their games being against lessor opponents. PSU does have one FBS game which should offset one of the DII games but their data set would still be skewed higher than reality. EWU has a play down game so they are in the opposite situation. UM is a beneficiary of a weak OOC because they do not have a FBS game while still having a DII game. Do you see where this is going, each team seems to have a different situation, some getting the advantage of a weak OOC while other are hindered by a strong OOC, and yet others are somewhat neutral by having played 1 FBS and 1 DII game. Of the 2 options the only reasonable one at this point is to look at the Conference only data set since there is so much disparity in the OOC schedules.

In truth stats are something that should be looked at for historical purposes, since by they time they are meaningful the season is far enough along that they only category that is important is the win and losses.

 

[mcg]

Nope, conference only stats are not meaningful early in the conference season (only 2 games). At this point of the season, the full season stats with 5/6 games) are clearly more meaningful.

In the categories listed above for the full season, the Cats are: no. 2 in scoring offense (behind UM), no. 2 in total defense, no. 4 in scoring defense (behind UM), no. 7 in pass defense (behind UM), and no. 3 in rush defense (behind UM).

Talk about cherry picking stats. I also point out that the stats I first posted above, were posted without commentary. They are what they are. No comment was made to say how good the Griz D is or isn't. No comparison was made to the Cats. Then insecure Cat posters had to attack the stats, and not pick out 2 games of stats when there are 6 available. The level of insecurity among some Cat fans is very significant.

You are wrong there, first of all neither group of stats are very useful until later in the season, but at this point the conf only stats are better with only a couple of games than the full stats are. The reason is that some teams have played 2 FBS games, some have played 2 DII games and everywhere else the quality of non conference opponent is too varied to give any useful data for comparison purposes.

This early in the season you really should refrain from placing any weight on the stats and ranking, each game should really be considered in its own little bubble. If you are going to go to statistical ranking you should stick with those that provide the most common level of opponent which is the conference only stats.

Nope, you are dead wrong, as you normally are. 6/5 games of stats are becoming quite meaningful. Picking 2 games out of 6 is what is truly meaningful. You are just being silly.

The only reasonable conclusion I can come to is that you are intentionally being ignorant, no thoughtful person could naturally be that misinformed.

When looking at any data set for statistical analysis you first need to look at the data points and the quantity of the data. Generally speaking the more data the better, but in this case we have few data points and many outliers. it makes no sense to give the same weight to the UM vs Panhandle State game as you do to the EWU vs Oregon State game, they simply do not both belong to the same data set and give us no real value in comparing UM and EWU to each other. The problem is compounded when some teams have multiple outliers against FBS teams and some have multiple outliers against DII teams. So given the limited data points we really need to drop those outliers from the data set.

We are given 2 options of data sets, the conference only which throws out all outliers and a few more, or the full stats which includes all outliers. Since the outliers greatly skew the data at this point and they skew in unequally also, the only reasonable thing is to avoid using the full stats at this point. Ideally we would have a 3rd option of FCS only but that is not available.

In addition I would say that it is still far to early to be starting threads about who is and is not ranked highly in the stats, especially when you are basing it on the least accurate data set available.

The last sentence may be the only relevant comment in this entire pissing-match. There isn't really enough data (the conference only stats for EWU are one game?) Come back in a month, look at the data and draw whatever conclusions are in the data.

I just looked, EWU's only conference game is against Weber, might not that data be just a tad biased?

 

[Chester Cheetah]

So you believe everything you read on face value? You probably still think the griz have a solid D based on what you read after the opsu game.

Well, I'll believe what I read in ESPN over the drivel you post.

How bout your own Colter Nuanez

"Montana State held a 29-point lead, but DeNarius McGhee would not stop pestering Rob Ash.

With a little more than 12 minutes to play in No. 8 Montana State’s 36-7 win over No. 15 Northern Arizona, Montana State’s star quarterback got planted by an NAU pass rusher. McGhee, who missed three weeks and two starts with a separated right (throwing) shoulder, jogged gingerly to the sidelines. A few plays later, he was begging Ash to let him return to the game.

“He’s fine,” Montana State’s seventh-year head coach said during the post-game press conference. “He came off, he wanted to go back in. He was driving me crazy wanting to go back in. I said, ‘No, Jake (Bleskin) will be fine, he can hand the ball off, DeNarius.”

I read the Ash quote and wondered what it says about the back-up quarterback's skill set.

I think he wanted to leave JB in so that when Tanner broke the receptions record it would be thrown by his brother.

FYI: Tanner Bleskin broke "Big Joe's" career receptions record on a pass thrown by his brother Jake

 

[PlayerRep]

As you admit, more games are better than fewer games. Most of the conference has D-II games at this point, so those aren't outlier games. Feel free to throw out what you believe are the occasional outliers (like EWU v. Oregon St), but you don't then pick only 2 games when each team already has 6 or 5 games played. The outliers aren't skewing the stats in any significant respect. Picking 2 games out of 6/5 is what would skew the stats and be totally invalid.

I started the thread by summarizing where UM was ranked in the defensive stats compiled and posted by conference. No comparisons were made to specific conference teams. No conclusions whatsoever were drawn. The stats are what they are. If you have a complaint, take it to the league office. They posted the stats.

Here is the flaw in your thinking, since it is not apparent to you. EWU has 2 FBS games that are outliers in one direction, PSU has 2 DII games that are outliers in another direction. That means that PSU's highly ranked offense is very suspect since it is based on 1/3 of their games being against lessor opponents. PSU does have one FBS game which should offset one of the DII games but their data set would still be skewed higher than reality. EWU has a play down game so they are in the opposite situation. UM is a beneficiary of a weak OOC because they do not have a FBS game while still having a DII game. Do you see where this is going, each team seems to have a different situation, some getting the advantage of a weak OOC while other are hindered by a strong OOC, and yet others are somewhat neutral by having played 1 FBS and 1 DII game. Of the 2 options the only reasonable one at this point is to look at the Conference only data set since there is so much disparity in the OOC schedules.

In truth stats are something that should be looked at for historical purposes, since by they time they are meaningful the season is far enough along that they only category that is important is the win and losses.

Because of the number of games already played, those minor deviations are already evened out or being evened out. 6 games is much different than 2 games. There have already been between 75-80 games already played in the conference, and you're talking about several games.

By the way, EWU v. Oregon St didn't skew EWU's stats, at least their offensive stats, at all. Let's throw out UM's NAU game, because UM was caught napping and NAU played great. And let's throw out NAU v. MSU, because NAU played poorly after putting all their effort into UM the week before. And let's throw out UM v. OPSU, because UM started subbing out JJ and other starters just after halfway through the 1st quarter.

Get a grip. Stats are stats. As the season goes on, they get more and more meaningful. You clearly don't understand statistical analysis.

 

[theobserver]

You clearly don't understand statistical analysis.

Apparently neither do you... with all due respect of course.....

Again - I will ask this v e r y s l o w... if your "statistical analysis" is spot on and have the griz #1 in every category, why are they sitting in 6th place?

 

[PlayerRep]

You clearly don't understand statistical analysis.

Apparently neither do you... with all due respect of course.....

Again - I will ask this v e r y s l o w... if your "statistical analysis" is spot on and have the griz #1 in every category, why are they sitting in 6th place?

UM is 4-1. Two games conference games are not enough to be "statistically" significant. The NAU game was UM's "bad" game. Should be thrown out statistically, under your view of stats. Then I guess that makes us statistically undefeated, again according to your view of stats. And UM is not no. 1 in all stats. My statistical analysis says you are about ready to disappear from the board. Good riddance.

 

[Fahque]

You clearly don't understand statistical analysis.

Apparently neither do you... with all due respect of course.....

Again - I will ask this v e r y s l o w... if your "statistical analysis" is spot on and have the griz #1 in every category, why are they sitting in 6th place?

Probably because the rankings aren't determined by offensive or defensive stats. It doesn't take a genius....ahhh never mind

 

[grizare#1]

Griz defense did what they had to do to win the game. They forced 4 turnovers, had two goal line stops inside the 3, and held Adams to 79 yards (first time a Division 1 team has done this all season). PSU has gone hog wild on every team they have played this season including Cal Berkley. PSU has a very salty offense and were for the most part held in check by this defense. Bottom line this team is 4-1 still a long way to go.

I will take an ugly win over a beautiful loss any day :thumb:

 

[George Ferguson]

PSU didn't play two DII teams, Eastern Oregon is an NAIA member of the Frontier Conference. The Mounties just beat Carroll two weeks ago.

 

[ordigger]

Reading about a lawyer discussing logic and statistic analysis, has to be one of the funniest things I've read in a long time. In truth the basis for this entire argument has to do with sampling, amd sadly the Cat fans are dead on in what they are trying to say. Has nothing to do with 2 games or 6 games, but what is the best way to complete your analysis via sampling, In this case the best common characteristics are more likely to appear using the conference stats, and to argue anything else shows a complete lack of knowledge in statistics. Obviously by someone who has never played this game.

The entire "cherry picking" stats is irony onto itself, as a good lawyer will search for "evidence" to support their conclusions. In this case the 6 game theory seems like a good approach. I have actually seen this same poster use conference statistics to support his theories when needed...so I get a chuckle.

Anyhow, from a pure statistics point of view, the best sampling is the conference statistics. Of course some people will never admit when they are wrong, and will try to flip it back on you, but hey thats the sign of a good lawyer, not a good statistician. Or misdirect will be another approach used.

 

[PlayerRep]

Reading about a lawyer discussing logic and statistic analysis, has to be one of the funniest things I've read in a long time. In truth the basis for this entire argument has to do with sampling, amd sadly the Cat fans are dead on in what they are trying to say. Has nothing to do with 2 games or 6 games, but what is the best way to complete your analysis via sampling, In this case the best common characteristics are more likely to appear using the conference stats, and to argue anything else shows a complete lack of knowledge in statistics. Obviously by someone who has never played this game.

The entire "cherry picking" stats is irony onto itself, as a good lawyer will search for "evidence" to support their conclusions. In this case the 6 game theory seems like a good approach. I have actually seen this same poster use conference statistics to support his theories when needed...so I get a chuckle.

Anyhow, from a pure statistics point of view, the best sampling is the conference statistics. Of course some people will never admit when they are wrong, and will try to flip it back on you, but hey thats the sign of a good lawyer, not a good statistician. Or misdirect will be another approach used.

I see that you know even less about stats than you know about football. Like a few of the Cat trolls, you admit that the larger 6 game sampling provides for the best stat analysis at this time, but then, just because you have been stung by me so many times when I've pointed out the nonsense of your posts, you make the silly statement that 2 games is better than 6. Pretty funny. I suppose that's what we should expect from a guy who supports the Missoulian, thinks UMass' move up has been successful, didn't think Cherry was a good point guard, etc. Oh, and there's nothing wrong with conference stats after there have been enough conf games to make them statistical valid.

 

[theobserver]

that makes us statistically undefeated,.

Oh good lord that is why I love this board.... The rabid griz fan cannot stand and early-season loss, so he comes up with phony math to make them undefeated!!

I am glad to see your arrogance has not waned with the talent of your team!! :thumb: