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Thunderbird chances against Cats?
- Thread starter grizbymarriage
- Start date
I'm sitting in the Oakland airport waiting on my flight home from the NAR convention, sipping on a Corona watching the 49ers play, I've got little else to do so I thought I'd take a look at this SUU vs MSU matchup because SUU is still a playoff dark horse team. Save one head-scratching loss vs UC Davis they've only lost to EWU and Wazzu, they've even beat an FBS team, South Alabama
They're 7-3 and if they happen to win their next two games they are a lock for the playoffs, here's why, they play MSU and NAU, that would be two huge wins vs top 25 teams and put them at 9-3 overall. That scenario would put MSU or NAU on the ropes b/c I don't see the playoff committee taking EWU, UM, MSU, NAU, and SUU in the playoffs. Considering the scenarios I'd think if SUU were to somehow win the next two games that final week bumping off of NAU might put the Lumberjacks as the odd-team out.
So that said, a quick look at the MSU vs SUU matchup:
- MSU scores 37 points per game, SUU allows 20 points per game. SUU scores 21 points per game, MSU allows 25 points per game.
- Breaking it apart further though, at home MSU's offense is about on par but their defense is much better, allowing just 12 points per game. SUU on the road has been quite tested, 6 games already played on the road, MSU will be the 7th. Their offense is scoring about the same on the road but thanks to two bigger losses vs Wazzu and EWU their defense averages allowing 28 points per game on the road.
- Statistically SUU's defense is pretty good when matching it up against the conference. Consider this, the best scoring defense in the conference, the best total defense (yards per game) in the conference, the best rush defense in the conference, the 6th best pass defense in the conference, tied for UM with the most interceptions in the Big Sky (13), fewest amount of allowed first downs per game in the conference (18), 2nd best 3rd down defense in the conference, and 3rd in the conference in turnover margin at +10 (MSU is +11, UM is +12)
- All are pretty awesome stats on their defense, but much like the way the UCD stats were being touted before the Griz game one should take into account SUU's wins so far. South Alabama (3-5 in the Sun Belt), Fort Lewis, Sac St, UNC, UCD, PSU, EWU, ISU, Weber. So they've played the entire bottom of the conference save North Dakota. However they did shut down Sac and PSU, PSU has the 2nd best statistical offense in the Big Sky, Sac is the next best they've beat at 7th.
- SUU's undoing is their offense which doesn't put up a lot of points. It's a run-heavy offense that's littered with all sorts of guys that touch the ball but no single major statistical leader. They've got one real good WR, (Fatu Moala). Their game plan is grind it out, control the clock, and win in the end.
- One thing that we just don't see much this season is that SUU has a solid kicker. The Griz have seen so many teams with shaky kicking this year, heck the Griz have had shaky kicking. SUU's kicker is 16-20 on the season and has hit 8 of his last 9.
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Dare I say it but they're almost a "Bobby Ball" kind of team. Play real good defense, have a real good kicker, force a lot of turnovers, and control the clock. What they don't have that Hauck teams had was a feature power-back, but they're not without options.
Does SUU have a chance? Yes indeed. MSU is going to face the best defense they've seen this year - at least on paper. SUU's matchups against some better or mid-range offenses gives suggestion that they're not going to be a deer caught in the headlights come game day. MSU's defense has been heading in the opposite direction of where they want to be going, they've been beat up on the ground a lot recently and by some teams that aren't very strong teams in conference.
Does SUU have a good chance? I don't think so. While MSU has issues on defense their offense is still scoring good points. MSU plays better at home and SUU will be in an unfamiliar environment. Yeah they played in front of more at Wazzu but they're going to be entering a very hostile place on Saturday.
I can see this game being close for quite possibly 3 quarters, however MSU has the horses to pull away, SUU does not. I could see this being a little lower scoring, but with an MSU win. Something like a 24-13 kind of game.
They're 7-3 and if they happen to win their next two games they are a lock for the playoffs, here's why, they play MSU and NAU, that would be two huge wins vs top 25 teams and put them at 9-3 overall. That scenario would put MSU or NAU on the ropes b/c I don't see the playoff committee taking EWU, UM, MSU, NAU, and SUU in the playoffs. Considering the scenarios I'd think if SUU were to somehow win the next two games that final week bumping off of NAU might put the Lumberjacks as the odd-team out.
So that said, a quick look at the MSU vs SUU matchup:
- MSU scores 37 points per game, SUU allows 20 points per game. SUU scores 21 points per game, MSU allows 25 points per game.
- Breaking it apart further though, at home MSU's offense is about on par but their defense is much better, allowing just 12 points per game. SUU on the road has been quite tested, 6 games already played on the road, MSU will be the 7th. Their offense is scoring about the same on the road but thanks to two bigger losses vs Wazzu and EWU their defense averages allowing 28 points per game on the road.
- Statistically SUU's defense is pretty good when matching it up against the conference. Consider this, the best scoring defense in the conference, the best total defense (yards per game) in the conference, the best rush defense in the conference, the 6th best pass defense in the conference, tied for UM with the most interceptions in the Big Sky (13), fewest amount of allowed first downs per game in the conference (18), 2nd best 3rd down defense in the conference, and 3rd in the conference in turnover margin at +10 (MSU is +11, UM is +12)
- All are pretty awesome stats on their defense, but much like the way the UCD stats were being touted before the Griz game one should take into account SUU's wins so far. South Alabama (3-5 in the Sun Belt), Fort Lewis, Sac St, UNC, UCD, PSU, EWU, ISU, Weber. So they've played the entire bottom of the conference save North Dakota. However they did shut down Sac and PSU, PSU has the 2nd best statistical offense in the Big Sky, Sac is the next best they've beat at 7th.
- SUU's undoing is their offense which doesn't put up a lot of points. It's a run-heavy offense that's littered with all sorts of guys that touch the ball but no single major statistical leader. They've got one real good WR, (Fatu Moala). Their game plan is grind it out, control the clock, and win in the end.
- One thing that we just don't see much this season is that SUU has a solid kicker. The Griz have seen so many teams with shaky kicking this year, heck the Griz have had shaky kicking. SUU's kicker is 16-20 on the season and has hit 8 of his last 9.
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Dare I say it but they're almost a "Bobby Ball" kind of team. Play real good defense, have a real good kicker, force a lot of turnovers, and control the clock. What they don't have that Hauck teams had was a feature power-back, but they're not without options.
Does SUU have a chance? Yes indeed. MSU is going to face the best defense they've seen this year - at least on paper. SUU's matchups against some better or mid-range offenses gives suggestion that they're not going to be a deer caught in the headlights come game day. MSU's defense has been heading in the opposite direction of where they want to be going, they've been beat up on the ground a lot recently and by some teams that aren't very strong teams in conference.
Does SUU have a good chance? I don't think so. While MSU has issues on defense their offense is still scoring good points. MSU plays better at home and SUU will be in an unfamiliar environment. Yeah they played in front of more at Wazzu but they're going to be entering a very hostile place on Saturday.
I can see this game being close for quite possibly 3 quarters, however MSU has the horses to pull away, SUU does not. I could see this being a little lower scoring, but with an MSU win. Something like a 24-13 kind of game.
SUU took the cats to the final seconds last year... so you're saying there's a chance? :lol:
Grizzlies1982
Well-known member
nzone said:
Agreed. Home field will help the cats lick their wounds. Plus they know they can't lose two if they want into the playoffs, and even one loss puts them squarely on the bubble. Cats win.
tnt said:
No, they didn't play Eastern better than Montana State. MSU pushed the ball up and down the field fairly easily; although it is important to mention Eastern is decimated with injuries in the secondary. Southern Utah didn't move the ball on Eastern at all, and only scored a TD in garbage time. Had Eastern not turned it over twice in the SUU redzone, the score could've been much worse.
Southern Utah appears to be the best of the also-rans in the Big Sky. They are capable of narrow wins over poor to mediocre teams, but when they've stepped up to play good teams, they've been easily beaten.
Unless MSU comes out rattled and unfocused, they probably win by 20+.
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