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Some Ask a Taboo Question: Is America Overreacting to Coronavirus?

Will there be ambulances outside when they finish...

https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida/2020/05/15/with-bar-exams-set-for-july-wave-of-worry-for-prospective-florida-lawyers/
 
argh! said:
ranco said:
While I understand these anti-body studies can have some error issues, they are very enlightening and consistently show that the virus is far less deadly than reported.

In France, the studies showed that an estimated b] 2.8 Million people[/b] had been infected. As of today, France has reported 27,425 deaths. That would show a death rate at .0098.

France's official COVID count of confirmed cases is 178,870. So the actual number of infections is about 15 times more than reported. If you apply the 15 times multiplier to the U.S. (which may be a conservative factor based on other antibody tests in the US) that would mean about 22,000,000 Americans have been infected. This would put the US death rate at approximately .004.
Yet, some people think that destruction of the global economy is the proper response....

therein lies the potential problem, though - false positives driving the postulated number of cases artificially up, giving information people want to believe, but that may or may not be true. for instance, your numbers all sound great, but they assume an extremely accurate antibody test, which, as has been pointed out, may not exist, i.e. your numbers may be driven by a large number of false positives.
I think the studies account for the error rates. Numerous countries have performed the tests and they all reach the very same conclusion: the number of reported cases is a small fraction of the number of actual infections. Can't hide from the science.
 
ranco said:
argh! said:
therein lies the potential problem, though - false positives driving the postulated number of cases artificially up, giving information people want to believe, but that may or may not be true. for instance, your numbers all sound great, but they assume an extremely accurate antibody test, which, as has been pointed out, may not exist, i.e. your numbers may be driven by a large number of false positives.
I think the studies account for the error rates. Numerous countries have performed the tests and they all reach the very same conclusion: the number of reported cases is a small fraction of the number of actual infections. Can't hide from the science.

that could well be because the chances for false positives vastly outweigh those for false negatives. as this article says, there are already 90 different tests being used; however, developing an accurate antibody test may well take as long as developing a vaccine: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/antibody-tests-wont-end-social-distancing-anytime-soon.html

also from the article: “As far as we know, the tests that have been developed are not good enough for clinical decision-making yet,” Chida said. Because the research is moving at breakneck speed, antibody-test developers are not working on solid ground. For example, they still don’t know for certain if IgG is the key to fighting off COVID-19. Immune responses are complicated and other factors, like T cells, may be responsible for beating back the disease."
 
argh! said:
ranco said:
I think the studies account for the error rates. Numerous countries have performed the tests and they all reach the very same conclusion: the number of reported cases is a small fraction of the number of actual infections. Can't hide from the science.

that could well be because the chances for false positives vastly outweigh those for false negatives. as this article says, there are already 90 different tests being used; however, developing an accurate antibody test may well take as long as developing a vaccine: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/antibody-tests-wont-end-social-distancing-anytime-soon.html

also from the article: “As far as we know, the tests that have been developed are not good enough for clinical decision-making yet,” Chida said. Because the research is moving at breakneck speed, antibody-test developers are not working on solid ground. For example, they still don’t know for certain if IgG is the key to fighting off COVID-19. Immune responses are complicated and other factors, like T cells, may be responsible for beating back the disease."

Understand the uncertainty. What do you think the multiplier is as to reported cases vs. actual cases?
 
Hoops watcher said:
Some intel about surgical masks (the cloth type). Not only do you look silly wearing it in your car, it's not doing what whoever in the Health Department that tells you to wear it implies that it does. The guy is a neuro surgeon so I'll go with credible:

https://www.technocracy.news/blaylock-face-masks-pose-serious-risks-to-the-healthy/

Interesting. Lots of conflicting advice. I have worn masks a bit in the distant past.

My current practice is no mask in MT, unless required by store. Would wear on airplane, as that's what airlines want and limited period of time. Probably wouldn't go on NYC subway, but if I did, would probably wear mask.
 
ranco said:
argh! said:
that could well be because the chances for false positives vastly outweigh those for false negatives. as this article says, there are already 90 different tests being used; however, developing an accurate antibody test may well take as long as developing a vaccine: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/antibody-tests-wont-end-social-distancing-anytime-soon.html

also from the article: “As far as we know, the tests that have been developed are not good enough for clinical decision-making yet,” Chida said. Because the research is moving at breakneck speed, antibody-test developers are not working on solid ground. For example, they still don’t know for certain if IgG is the key to fighting off COVID-19. Immune responses are complicated and other factors, like T cells, may be responsible for beating back the disease."

Understand the uncertainty. What do you think the multiplier is as to reported cases vs. actual cases?

that's the problem. could be pretty accurate, and this virus could be way less fatal than thought, although that isn't going to slow the spread. wish we knew, but that is going to take tests of tests of tests... it can be a long process, which sucks.
 
cclarkblues said:
Four new cases in Bighorn County on Thursday.

Very little testing being done there. IHS and the County Health Dept. states they will only test if they are sick...Crow Res. is larger than Rhode Island, nearly as large as Connecticut with limited resources. Not Afraid is doing a wonderful job as is the mayor of Lodge Grass. May become a hot spot.
 
This is going to get really interesting. Hope Montana's Zack Rogala gets lots of training soon.

https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/05/15/us-china-tensions-rise-as-trump-administration-moves-to-cut-huawei-off-from-global-chip-suppliers.html?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2020%2F05%2F15%2Fus-china-tensions-rise-as-trump-administration-moves-to-cut-huawei-off-from-global-chip-suppliers.html
 
CatGrad-UMGradStu said:
This is going to get really interesting. Hope Montana's Zack Rogala gets lots of training soon.

https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/05/15/us-china-tensions-rise-as-trump-administration-moves-to-cut-huawei-off-from-global-chip-suppliers.html?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2020%2F05%2F15%2Fus-china-tensions-rise-as-trump-administration-moves-to-cut-huawei-off-from-global-chip-suppliers.html


With both the Commerce Dept. and the FCC after them, maybe we'll get them out of the U.S.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/15/business/economy/commerce-department-huawei.html?action=click&module=Latest&pgtype=Homepage
 
1. "He Saw ‘No Proof’ Closures Would Curb Virus. Now He Has De Blasio’s Trust.

The head of New York City’s public hospitals pushed to keep the city open in early March. Now the mayor has put him in charge of contact tracing, deepening a rift with the Health Department."

[Read the paras quoted. It's interesting mostly for what the head of the pubic hospital system, on March 10. To me, this shows that nobody really knew what was right at the time, and probably nobody has blood on their hands. Everyone was largely making an educated, or uneducated, guess. Even now, I wonder what parts of the shutdowns and restrictions helped, and what didn't.]

"As Mayor Bill de Blasio was resisting calls in March to cancel large gatherings and slow the spread of the coronavirus in New York City, he found behind-the-scenes support from a trusted voice: the head of his public hospital system, Dr. Mitchell Katz.

There was “no proof that closures will help stop the spread,” Dr. Katz wrote in an email to the mayor’s closest aides. He believed that banning large events would hurt the economy and sow fear. “If it is not safe to go to a conference, why is it safe to go to the hospital or ride in the subway?” he wrote. And, he said, many New Yorkers were going to get infected anyway.
“We have to accept that unless a vaccine is rapidly developed, large numbers of people will get infected,” he wrote. “The good thing is greater than 99 percent will recover without harm. Once people recover they will have immunity. The immunity will protect the herd.”

For Mr. de Blasio, the arguments in Dr. Katz’s March 10 email, obtained by The New York Times, appeared to hold sway over the calls for greater restrictions on daily life from top Health Department officials, who were alarmed by public health surveillance data pointing toward a looming outbreak.

The mayor did not order major closures, including of schools and restaurants, until almost a week after the email — a delay that epidemiologists say allowed the virus to spread.

The mayor last week shocked the Health Department by taking away its authority to oversee contact tracing, giving the job to Health and Hospitals, the agency overseen by Dr. Katz. It is a monumental task: The city must build and run an army of some 2,500 people to track and trace the close contacts of every infected person.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/14/nyregion/coronavirus-de-blasio-mitchell-katz.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

2. "Scenes From the Class Struggle in Lockdown

Those who are anxious to open up the economy have led harder lives than those holding out for safety."

"I think there’s a growing sense that we have to find a way to live with this thing, manage it the best we can, and muddle through. Covid-19 is not going away anytime soon. Summer may give us a break, late fall probably not. Vaccines are likely far off, new therapies and treatments might help a lot, but keeping things closed up tight until there are enough tests isn’t a viable plan. There will never be enough tests, it was botched from the beginning, if we ever catch up it will probably be at the point tests are no longer urgently needed.

Meantime, we must ease up and manage. We should go forward with a new national commitment to masks, social distancing, hand washing. These simple things have proved the most valuable tools in the tool chest. We have to enter each day armored up. At the same time we can’t allow alertness to become exhaustion. We can’t let an appropriate sense of caution turn into an anxiety formation. We can’t become a nation of agoraphobics. We’ll just have to live, carefully.

Here’s something we should stop. There’s a class element in the public debate. It’s been there the whole time but it’s getting worse, and few in public life are acting as if they’re sensitive to it. Our news professionals the past three months have made plenty of room for medical and professionals warning of the illness. Good, we needed it, it was news. They are not now paying an equal degree of sympathetic attention to those living the economic story

There is a class divide between those who are hard-line on lockdowns and those who are pushing back. We see the professionals on one side—those James Burnham called the managerial elite, and Michael Lind, in “The New Class War,” calls “the overclass”—and regular people on the other. The overclass are highly educated and exert outsize influence as managers and leaders of important institutions—hospitals, companies, statehouses. The normal people aren’t connected through professional or social lines to power structures, and they have regular jobs—service worker, small-business owner.

Since the pandemic began, the overclass has been in charge—scientists, doctors, political figures, consultants—calling the shots for the average people. But personally they have less skin in the game. The National Institutes of Health scientist won’t lose his livelihood over what’s happened. Neither will the midday anchor.

I’ve called this divide the protected versus the unprotected.

I think it’s fair to say citizens of red states have been pushing back harder than those of blue states.

It’s not that those in red states don’t think there’s a pandemic. They’ve heard all about it! They realize it will continue, they know they may get sick themselves. But they also figure this way: Hundreds of thousands could die and the American economy taken down, which would mean millions of other casualties, economic ones. Or, hundreds of thousands could die and the American economy is damaged but still stands, in which case there will be fewer economic casualties—fewer bankruptcies and foreclosures, fewer unemployed and ruined.

They’ll take the latter. It’s a loss either way but one loss is worse than the other.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/scenes-from-the-class-struggle-in-lockdown-11589498276?mod=hp_opin_pos_3

3. "The Coronavirus Crisis Shows Experts Aren’t Enough

As the pandemic shows, there are no purely technical solutions for problems that demand political leadership."

"The U.S. government’s response to Covid-19 has forced us to ask what role scientific and technical experts should play in making policy. We have become used to the spectacle of President Trump standing before reporters surrounded by a gaggle of doctors and scientific advisers—sometimes deferring to them, sometimes questioning them, sometimes berating them.

But the costs and burdens of the pandemic response have driven some Americans to criticize the power of the public health professionals who designed it. Skepticism of experts and resentment of their claims to authority have grown. There have been calls to fire Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, who has been a prominent counselor to the president. And Dr. Deborah Birx, who leads the White House pandemic task force, has become, in the words of one New York Times report, “a partisan Rorschach test.”

The debate falls too easily into a familiar pattern. The struggle between technocratic champions of expert rule and populist defenders of the common man is an old story in the U.S.

To govern, at least at the level of the presidency, is to make hard choices among competing options with incomplete information. Easier problems are resolved before they ever reach the Oval Office. Neither scientific data nor public sentiments can properly answer the questions that face elected officials. Both are important and must be integrated into the judgments that political leaders make. But neither can substitute for that crucial act of judgment.

The world’s leading epidemiologists at first underestimated the potential of the novel coronavirus to give rise to a catastrophe. Early this winter, Dr. Fauci himself could be heard offering assurances that it was unlikely the pandemic would spread across the globe. At the end of January, Dr. Wang Linfa, a Duke researcher who was a member of the team that discovered SARS, told the medical journalism website STAT that the new virus didn’t seem distinctly dangerous. “It’s too early to say if a SARS-like event will happen,” Dr. Wang said. “But I have a gut feeling it won’t.”

Technocratic government by experts and populist government by public whim are both impossible fantasies. Our elected officials need expert advice when dealing with complex scientific, economic and social challenges. But that advice does not resolve those problems for them. We empower them to judge, to choose and to act in an uncertain world. Expertise informs the work of republican self-government, but it cannot replace it.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/experts-arent-enough-11589465220?mod=hp_featst_pos2

4. "After quelling the virus, Asia is facing painful second waves

An elderly woman with no travel history. An unexpected flare-up in a nightclub. A swelling cluster in towns near international borders with no discernible source."

"After containing their outbreaks through measures from strict lockdowns to rapid testing regimes, the Asian economies that have seen some of the most success quelling the coronavirus -- Hong Kong, South Korea and China -- are now facing resurgences that underscore how it may be nearly impossible to eradicate it.

It’s a painful reminder that as countries open up again and people resume normal life, untraceable flare-ups are likely -- even after an extended lull in cases. Scientists have warned that the disease may never go away, because it lurks in some people without causing any outward signs of sickness.

China Seals Off Cities Near North Korea as New Clusters Grow

There’s also suspicion that the cluster could stem from North Korea given the area’s proximity to China’s border with the reclusive nation. North Korea has yet to confirm any Covid-19 infections, but the U.S. military said it suspects there are cases, and Kim Jong Un’s regime has accepted help from other nations to fight the virus.

Bloomberg: https://apple.news/A6S9uD5D2SS2mIUst3pUnbg

5. "Rural America Risks Letting Down Its Guard Just as Coronavirus Is About to Hit

[May 5 Time article.]

"But as the country’s leaders talk of reopening the shuttered economy, it is precisely these regions of the U.S. that are among the most at risk. A TIME analysis of county-level COVID-19 cases shows that the virus is only just now arriving in much of rural America. That means some of these sparsely populated areas could be letting down their guard just as the disease is about to hit."

COVID-19’s arrival in rural America threatens a particularly vulnerable group of people. Many of these regions have an older, poorer population, and fewer hospital facilities and medical staff. Overall, 18 million people live in counties that have hospitals but no ICU, and about a quarter of those people are over the age of 60. In Nebraska, for example, 81 counties don’t have a single ICU bed and quarantining even a few nurses or doctors could quickly leave hospitals and clinics with no medical professionals at all. A recent analysis mapping out the nationwide burden of COVID-19 by scientists at Princeton University concluded that the “per capita disease burden and relative healthcare system demand may be highest away from major population centers.”

Ultimately, the main infection route for rural America is coming from cities, even smaller ones with fewer cases, "

https://time.com/5831319/coronavirus-rural-america/

6. "The focus is shifting from trying to eliminate coronavirus to reducing the risks, a doctor says

The US appears to be changing its strategy from trying to completely eliminate coronavirus to reducing infection risks as the nation reopens, a health expert says."

"In all, 28 states have seen a downward trend, including several that took steps toward reopening relatively early, like Georgia, South Carolina, Oklahoma and Colorado.

A notable exception is Texas, where case numbers are up between 20% and 30% since the state began lifting stay-home restrictions on May 1. Thursday was particularly grim as the Lone Star State recorded 58 new deaths -- the state's highest one-day increase in coronavirus fatalities since the pandemic began.

In all, seven states are still experiencing upward trends in case numbers, while numbers appear to be holding steady in 15 others.

A word of caution: It will take weeks to learn the full health effects of states reopening.

With nearly all states easing social distancing, the nation has now shifted to harm reduction -- which focuses on ways to reduce the risk if it cannot be removed entirely

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released "decision trees" to help workplaces, communities, schools, day cares, camps and mass transit decide when it's safe to reopen.
The six documents posted on its website Thursday provide step-by-step guidance advising employers to encourage social distancing, hand washing and intensified cleaning.

They do not provide any detailed advice on when it would be safe for schools or business to open -- only questions to ask before making any decisions."

CNN: https://apple.news/AJYbuFJodQW2QWBdIrUNIXg

7. "Where coronavirus hospitalizations are falling — and where they're not

Coronavirus hospitalizations have declined in many states — another indication that social distancing has been effective at curbing the virus' spread.

[Take quick skim at state hospitalization chart. Interesting. MT is best. 20 states going down; 7 going up.]

Axios: https://apple.news/A0ZYtFGqbQ5OaQpTbmtEJ4A

8. "Coronavirus prompts Boeing to launch 'Confident Travel' initiative to encourage passengers to get back on planes

As coronavirus restrictions begin to ease across the country, Boeing is encouraging airline passengers to get back on planes with its Confident Travel Initiative."

"As coronavirus restrictions begin to ease across the country, Boeing is encouraging airline passengers to get back on planes with its Confident Travel Initiative. The initiative, led by Boeing's vice president of Digital Transformation, Mike Delaney, will "develop new solutions to help minimize air travel health risks" during the coronavirus pandemic and "drive awareness of health safeguards already in place."

The team will advocate for the use of facial coverings, temperature checks and enhanced cleaning procedures on all Boeing airplanes. It will also promote the use of High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filtration systems which, according to the company, are "99.9+% effective at removing particulates such as viruses, bacteria and fungi before air is recirculated back to the cabin."

"If I survey all of our customers and I start here in the U.S., and of course we do...most are trying to dial in a return of about 30 [percent] to 50 percent by the end of this year," Calhoun told "Mornings with Maria". "A lot's going to depend on how the public responds to the safety of airline cabins, etc."

According to preliminary data filed with the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S. airlines carried just 7 million passengers in March as the coronavirus pandemic spread to the United States, a 51 percent decrease compared to more than 79 million passengers at the same time last year. [I assume April numbers will be much worse.]

Fox News: https://apple.news/AGUw7GMGDQPGyD_bR1tWxBA

9. "Coronavirus contact tracers' nemeses: People who don't answer their phones

Experts say the outreach effort has to be massive, but the public must help."

"Massachusetts, praised by public health officials for being one of the first states to set up a coronavirus contact tracing program, is running into a problem: people aren’t picking up their phones.

When investigators reached out to infected residents and those with whom they came into close contact, more than half of their calls were being ignored
, health officials revealed in recent a press briefing with Gov. Charlie Baker.

“If you get a call or a text from your local board of health or the COVID Team, it’s vital you take that call,” Baker said at the May 7 news conference, though state officials said the numbers have since improved.

Starting with people who test positive for COVID-19, tracers, with a series of carefully worded questions, figure out who a person was in contact with a few days before their symptoms started – skillfully reconstructing their schedules from sometimes hazy memories to map out a detailed chain of potential COVID-19 transmission.

They then follow up with that person's close contacts, alerting those who may have been exposed to COVID-19, all without ever revealing the identity of patient zero.

But across the country, the growing number of coronavirus contact tracers are struggling to reach some residents who may have been exposed and, therefore, could be spreading the disease, public health officials in several states told ABC News.

A consequence of endless robocalls

At a time when Americans are bombarded with more than 58 billion robocalls a year, and fraudsters are using the coronavirus to target potential victims in phone calls and text messages, many people are reluctant to field unexpected calls from unknown numbers.

But even if the recipient recognizes a legitimate government entity, sometimes that's a problem too. In some communities, contact-tracing response rates also appear to reflect larger concerns about what health authorities could do with the information they're given.

“Many of the groups that are being hardest hit -- black Americans, Latinos, Native Americans -- have had poor experiences with government officials and many have had poor experience with public health,” said Besser, who also previously served as chief health and medical editor for ABC News.

In some parts of the country, local public health officials are using technology to reach residents who favor other forms of communication over phone calls.

In Chicago, the city launched Chi COVID Coach to allow the health department to communicate directly with Chicago residents via text message, and provide them with resources on testing and symptoms.

“Let’s not make the choice between tech and people, we need both,” Raed Mansour, Director of Innovation at the Chicago Department of Public Health, told ABC News. “In contact tracing, you need to meet people where they are.”

In many places, that has included text messaging for those who are less likely to answer calls."

ABC News: https://apple.news/AtOiWvytcQimDogUIAObG1w

10. "Reopening businesses face a legal minefield of coronavirus claims

Businesses fearing lawsuits from employees, customers and vendors who get ill may be reluctant to open their doors any time soon"

"Unfortunately, if you’re running a small business, lawsuits from reopening could come in many forms. Just by trying to do the right thing, like collecting employee health data, requiring temperature checks or regular testing can expose you to violations of privacy regulations. Not keeping up with every new piece of advice, rule or guidance from the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (Osha), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) or even your state and local authorities could open the door for claims. And it’s not just your employees that should worry you: as Bradley warns above, it’s also your customers, your suppliers, your vendors – pretty much anyone who walks into your place of business and later tests positive for Covid-19.

What about insurance? According to law firm Ropes & Gray, the coverage may not be there because many general liability insurance policies contain exclusions for liabilities related to infectious diseases. “Even claims may have ‘strike’ value, be persuasive to juries, and could be expensive to defend,” the firm warns.

[T]hree litigation attorneys from the US arm of law firm Womble Bond Dickinson advised assigning someone in your company to be the point person for this issue and getting quickly up to speed on all the rules issued frequently by Osha, the CDC, the World Health Organization and local authorities. This would include taking steps like creating safety protocols, limiting activities where close contact occurs, regularly sanitizing the workplace and closing or limiting access to break rooms and other common areas. The attorneys also advised business owners to closely watch what other companies in their industry are doing and to “over-communicate” their actions to their employees.

Unfortunately, every attorney I’ve asked has admitted that there is only so much a business can do to protect itself without federal help and that the exposure to a lawsuit – frivolous or not – is still significant and potentially expensive to defend. "

The Guardian: https://apple.news/ARLqkPT-2S5-NHp2EmSlgNQ

11. "New York barber who 'illicitly' cut hair for [3] weeks has coronavirus

A New York barber who cut hair over the past few weeks amid the state's coronavirus restrictions has tested positive for the virus, according to health officials on Wednesday."

The barber or barbershop wasn't identified, although Smith said they were operating a shop on Broadway in the city of Kingston -- located about 90 miles north of New York City."

Fox News: https://apple.news/A8BaEMLFfRg6lZaz0TFgEqA

12. "American Airlines Shows Off New Cleaning and Safety Procedures

Seeking to reassure passengers that flying is safe, American Airlines will keep at least 50% of middle seats empty to allow more social distancing and has been deep-cleaning planes after every flight."

"Seeking to reassure passengers that flying is safe, American Airlines will keep at least 50% of middle seats empty to allow more social distancing and has been deep-cleaning planes after every flight.

As passengers enter the airport, they’ll notice extra workers wiping down everything, including chairs, counters and ticket kiosks.

Airline workers wear masks and their temperatures are taken as they arrive.
New plexiglass shields have been installed at ticket counters.

The interior of planes are being sprayed with an aerosol chemical-grade disinfectant in addition to normal cleaning.

“We do our enhanced cleaning with more focus and emphasis on the high-touch-point areas for our customers, which wasn’t done before,” said American Airlines airport services manager Martha Gonzales said. “This is done on every aircraft on arrival.

While employees must have their temperature checked, the airline does not check passengers.

And while masks must be worn to board, passengers who take them off after taking their seats won’t be challenged if they give a reason for not wearing one, a spokeswoman said.

NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth: https://apple.news/AV4I28eMZQaun4SdPF2-5qg

13. "Job losses have now hit 40% of low-income homes

Thirteen percent of all U.S. adults, or 20 percent of people who were employed in February, were laid off or furloughed."

"One in five American workers lost their jobs in March, including almost 40 percent of those in lower-income households, according to a Federal Reserve survey, underscoring the staggering impact of the coronavirus crisis.

Another 6 percent of all adults worked reduced hours or went on leave without pay,

For those who lost their job or were working fewer hours, only 64 percent expected to be able to pay off all their bills, compared to 85 percent of Americans who didn’t see their employment situation change.

Yet in a sign that Americans are maintaining their optimism, 91 percent of people who lost their jobs or were furloughed said they expected to return to the same employer eventually, suggesting that government efforts to keep workers tied to their current jobs might be working. Five percent in that group had already returned to work by the time of the survey.
Still, the numbers paint a grim picture: 39 percent of employed people in households making less than $40,000 lost their job or were furloughed in March. That compares to 19 percent of individuals in households making between $40,000 and $100,000, and 13 percent of people in households with an income above $100,000, a Fed official told reporters."

POLITICO: https://apple.news/AmmV0r7IpR7Wko6pQDPWFCQ

14. "Sex should be avoided for 30 days after coronavirus recovery: study says
Not so fast, lovers."

New York Post: https://apple.news/AsBt5OVzkRmuroRNvy8-qJQ

15. "Coronavirus deaths top 300K worldwide, but show signs of slowing
The worldwide death toll due to coronavirus topped 300,000 on Tuesday, but the uptick has slowed over the past month, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University."

Fox News: https://apple.news/ARhqL3Wb6SdOhViqKyZznmw

16. "The coronavirus travel crisis shuttered these three US airlines. Will more go under as well?

Regional airlines, which serve smaller communities that are less profitable to airlines than larger cities, were vulnerable before coronavirus."

"Trans States Airlines, a United Express carrier, suspended operations in April. It was followed by Compass Airlines, which flew as American Eagle and Delta Connection. Both are owned by Trans States Holdings.

The third airline ceasing operations is RavnAir Group, based in Anchorage, Alaska, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization last month after 90% of its passenger revenue dried up.  Between its three separate brands, RavnAir Alaska, PenAir, and RavnAir Connect, the company provided passenger, mail and freight service to more than 100 Alaskan communities, including remote villages."

USA TODAY: https://apple.news/AjHg6xEVZTP2qLKUHpwT1Nw

17. "3 Oil Stocks That Might Go Bankrupt In 2020

Coronavirus downturn and low oil prices could well be the end of the road for three U.S. energy companies."

[Occidental, Callon, and Chesapeake Energy]

Forbes: https://apple.news/A25Y_Ryk5SO2l1MXD8dvEoQ

18. "Alarming video shows how quickly coronavirus can spread at a restaurant

An alarming video from Japan that used a black light demonstrates how quickly the coronavirus can spread aboard a cruise ship or in a restaurant when just one person is infected. In an experiment conducted by public broadcaster NHK in collaboration with infectious disease experts, 10 people were asked to serve themselves as usual at a buffet, according to Forbes. Invisible fluorescent paint — visible only under a black light — was applied to the palm of one of the subjects, who was tapped as the as the “infected” person and coughed into his hand. The paint represented the deadly pathogen.
All the participants were allowed to enjoy the buffet for half an hour.

The diners are seen touching various utensils to grab food as they interact with each other and the “sick” individual in their midst.

At the end of the feasting, the room goes dark and ultraviolet light is emitted to show how the invisible paint spread almost everywhere, including silverware, dishes, glassware, clothes and cellphones."

[Video in 2d link. I think I may have had this one in yesterday's report.]

New York Post: https://apple.news/Ag_IncwXUQ3y4xazt0OahkQ

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/black-light-experiment-shows-quickly-203232507.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9zZWFyY2gueWFob28uY29tL3NlYXJjaD9laT11dGYtOCZmcj1hYXBsdyZwPWJsYWNrK3ZpZGVvK29mK3NwcmVhZCtpbityZXN0YXVyYW50&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAKjokNOOyfAoTkBUrKARV_hmMZ2Rt31nvrolhU7EDoVaCZRrrSHCPI

19. "Sweden Stayed Open. A Deadly Month Shows the Risks.

Sweden’s outbreak has been far deadlier than those of its neighbors, but it’s still better off than many countries that enforced strict lockdowns."

[This headline is a bit misleading, as Sweden compares well to most European countries, but not as well to Norway, Denmark and Finland.]

"How Sweden compares

More than Sweden
Less than Sweden

COUNTRY PCT ABOVE
NORMAL EXCESS
DEATHS TIME PERIOD
United Kingdom
+67% 53,300 Mar. 14 - May 1
Spain
+60% 31,500 Mar. 16 - May 3
Belgium
+50% 5,300 Mar. 16 - Apr. 19
Netherlands
+50% 8,700 Mar. 16 - Apr. 26
Italy
+49% 24,600 March
France
+44% 28,500 Mar. 16 - Apr. 26
Sweden
+27% 3,300 Mar. 16 - May 3
Switzerland
+24% 2,000 Mar. 16 - May 3
Portugal
+15% 1,300 Mar. 16 - Apr. 12
Austria
+11% 1,000 Mar. 16 - Apr. 26
Germany
+6% 4,100 Mar. 16 - Apr. 12
Denmark
+5% 300 Mar. 16 - May 3
Norway
+0% <100 Mar. 16 - Apr. 26
Finland
+0% <100 Mar. 16 Apr.26"

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/15/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-deaths.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

20. "Why Are Women-Led Nations Doing Better With Covid-19?

A new leadership style offers promise for a new era of global threats."

"Germany, led by Angela Merkel, has had a far lower death rate than Britain, France, Italy or Spain. Finland, where Prime minister Sanna Marin, 34, governs with a coalition of four female-led parties, has had fewer than 10 percent as many deaths as nearby Sweden. And Tsai Ing-wen, the president of Taiwan, has presided over one of the most successful efforts in the world at containing the virus, using testing, contact tracing and isolation measures to control infections without a full national lockdown."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/15/world/coronavirus-women-leaders.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

21. "New Coronavirus Vaccine Czar Says Finding One by January Is a ‘Credible’ Goal

Moncef Slaoui, a former pharmaceutical executive the White House chose to lead a crash development program, acknowledged that the 12-18 month timeline cited by Dr. Anthony Fauci was already “very aggressive.”

"The former pharmaceutical executive picked this week to lead a crash program to develop a coronavirus vaccine said Thursday that developing and mass-producing a successful vaccine by January 2021 is a “credible objective,” but acknowledged it would be difficult.

Moncef Slaoui, a former chairman of vaccines at GlaxoSmithKline, who is heading the program, conceded in an interview that even the time frame repeatedly cited by Dr. Anthony S. Fauci as necessary for developing the vaccine, which President Trump has rejected, would still outpace what many scientists believe is possible."

“Frankly, 12-18 months is already a very aggressive timeline,” Mr. Slaoui said. “I don’t think Dr. Fauci was wrong.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/15/us/politics/coronavirus-vaccine-timeline.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
 
Today's MT report:

4 new cases, all in Big Horn county. Hospitalizations still at 3. Active cases up to 19. Highest new case day since 4/20.
 
ONLY 6!

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/story/2020-05-13/supervisor-jim-desmond-says-san-diego-has-only-had-six-pure-coronavirus-deaths
 
Yukon said:
ONLY 6!

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/story/2020-05-13/supervisor-jim-desmond-says-san-diego-has-only-had-six-pure-coronavirus-deaths

I like to think most of these stories have more relevance;
https://politics.theonion.com/wisconsin-primary-voters-receive-i-voted-gravestones-1842729790
 
CatGrad-UMGradStu said:
Yukon said:
ONLY 6!

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/story/2020-05-13/supervisor-jim-desmond-says-san-diego-has-only-had-six-pure-coronavirus-deaths

I like to think most of these stories have more relevance;
https://politics.theonion.com/wisconsin-primary-voters-receive-i-voted-gravestones-1842729790

Or these:

https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/south-park

After reading through some of PR's posts and comments, I believe he probably worked with my lady in Centennial adjacent to South Park. I miss his snarkiness at times...anyway, that is a waste of ink and a tree died in vain.
 
[Below is my response to a post/thread in the Basketball section.]

citay said:

I heard--so it's definitely hearsay--that Mark Cuban hired people to go around checking on the re-opened areas of the country, to see if they were observing even the watered-down guidelines proposed by the CDC--masks, social distancing, et. al. And how many do you think were complying--80%? 50%%? 25%? If you picked 25%, you'd still be over by....21%.That's right: 4%!

There's a company in Toronto, Blue Dot. Check them out. They not only monitor virus outbreaks around the world, they track airline flights to and from the areas where there's an outbreak. On December 31, New Year's Eve, they alerted Toronto-area hospitals that there was a major virus in Wuhan, China, and that airline flights from there were going to Los Angeles, San Francisco, Italy, Toronto and New York. Toronto-area hospitals were able to stock up on supplies well ahead of the rest of us.

America, meanwhile, was way too slow to react. This is not a political debate; it is an observable fact, backed up by statistics--nearly 90,000 deaths in three months, with projections well beyond that.

I actually feel sorry for President Trump. He's a great politician, and like all great politicians through history, he's mastered the media--not only TV but also social media. He fully understands the news cycle. And while he's got character flaws, he's also an outgoing, affable people person, with a contagious optimism. And of course: This virus was not his fault.

At the same time, this pandemic is a case where his optimism got the best of him. His statements--the pandemic is a "hoax;" we have it fully under control; it will magically go away; sunlight, injections of disinfectants will cure it--are just not, shall we say, in conformity with objective reality, no matter they were delivered from the most powerful pulpit in the world.

So now we're ready to re-open the economy? The virus is gone? Or contained inside prisons and senior citizen homes? But--how about meat packing plants, beach parties, religious gatherings? How would Mardi Gras be much different from a football stadium with 60,000 people packed in it? Or 5000 people inside Dahlberg Arena?

Don't think I'm happy about this. My business is on a ventilator. I'm getting by for now without pro basketball or major league baseball but come college football and basketball seasons, I'll be be cryin' the blues. Just as both our major programs are ready to rumble.

But if you think we're through this, you need to be tested for more than just the virus.

Interesting, but this article doesn't mention the early stockpiling of virus supplies early in Toronto. Talks about "expired" supplies in stockpile.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-canada-supplies-ex/exclusive-millions-of-masks-stockpiled-in-canadas-ontario-expired-before-coronavirus-hit-idUSKBN20W2OG

[Below is from early March article, just stats]:

"TORONTO -- Public health officials say 33 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus have been diagnosed in Canada so far, with 20 cases reported in Ontario, 12 in British Columbia and one in Quebec."

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/novel-coronavirus-in-canada-here-s-a-timeline-of-covid-19-cases-across-the-country-1.4829917

In the U.S, the virus problems is mostly a NYC metro problem (38,000 deaths in NY, and NJ, and over 3,000 in Conn and a nursing/long-term care problem (27,600 deaths, as of May 10). Over one-third of deaths in US are associated with nursing homes. Also, most US cases came from Europe through NY. If NYC metro and nursing home deaths are backed out of the US number, things look at a lot different.

Mayor De Blasio and Gov. Cuomo were late to close down NYC and NY, in part on the advice of the :

"As Mayor Bill de Blasio was resisting calls in March to cancel large gatherings and slow the spread of the coronavirus in New York City, he found behind-the-scenes support from a trusted voice: the head of his public hospital system, Dr. Mitchell Katz[, said in a March 10 email to de Blasio].

There was “no proof that closures will help stop the spread,” Dr. Katz wrote in an email to the mayor’s closest aides. He believed that banning large events would hurt the economy and sow fear."

At this point, I don't "blame" anyone, not Cuomo, de Blasio or Trump. Note the feds suggested extreme social distancing before NYC and NY acted. While Trump and the US could have done some things better, I don't see how Trump deserves more blame for NYC metro than the NY Governor and NYC Mayor, as well as the head of the NY public hospital system.
 
1. "See Which States Are Reopening and Which Are Still Shut Down"

[Almost all states are re-opened. A few are re-opened only in parts of the states. Several are getting ready to re-open. Only Michigan, Illinois, NJ, and DE are listed as shutdown. NYC is still shut down.]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

2. Grand Princess and Diamond Princess cruise ships:

3 deaths in GP, out of 1o3 cases. 0 deaths on DP, out of 46 cases.

Remember all the early noise and hysteria about these cruise ships?

3. "TSA Preparing to Check Passenger Temperatures at Airports

Travelers would have temperatures checked at about a dozen airports under plans that are still under discussion"

"U.S. officials are preparing to begin checking passengers’ temperatures at roughly a dozen airports as soon as next week, according to people familiar with the matter.

Details of the plan are still being completed and are subject to change, the people said. It couldn't be determined which airports will initially have the new scanning procedures. A senior Trump administration official said that the initial rollout is expected to cost less than $20 million, and that passengers won’t be charged an additional fee.

Airlines have been pushing for the Transportation Security Administration to start taking passengers’ temperatures as part of a multifaceted effort to keep potentially sick people from boarding planes and to make passengers feel more comfortable taking trips again.

People familiar with the matter said TSA has raised concerns about taking on responsibility for temperature scanning, believing it doesn’t fall within the scope of its security mission. Its employees have also been exposed: Over 500 have tested positive for Covid-19 and six have died.

“At this time, no decision has been made regarding specific health screening measures at airports,” TSA said Friday in a statement.

The scanners used to take passenger temperatures would likely be a mix of tripods that can scan multiple people at once and hand-held thermal devices, the administration official said. Passengers with a temperature reading of 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit or higher will be flagged. Officials haven’t yet decided whether the scanning will take place at the start of the security process or toward the end.

Democrats in Congress have for weeks raised questions about whether the administration has authority to conduct temperature checks without congressional approval.

“I cannot find any law that gives TSA the authority to perform temperature checks as reported,” said Rep. Bennie G. Thompson (D., Miss.), chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security, in an emailed statement Friday. “The Administration should not put these front-line workers in further danger in order to provide passengers a potential false sense of safety.”

TSA ran a weeklong pilot of temperature checks at Washington Dulles International Airport in April, administration officials said."


https://www.wsj.com/articles/tsa-preparing-to-check-passenger-temperatures-11589579570?mod=hp_lead_pos1
 
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