[Yesterday's report. Today's will come this afternoon.]
1. "States That Reopened Have Not Had Spike in New COVID-19 Cases: HHS Chief
"Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said Sunday he has not seen any spikes in new coronavirus cases in states that recently reopened "non-essential" businesses.
The HHS chief expressed optimism that state governments have the tools to avoid new outbreaks of COVID-19, as several places including Wisconsin, South Carolina, Georgia and Colorado enter new phases of reopening local businesses. Several states have recorded record highs in the number of new daily coronavirus cases, but those numbers are in direct correlation to an increasing amount of tests being made available to residents. Newly reported deaths tied to the virus have leveled off or decreased.
During a CNN interview, host Jake Tapper said to Azar that it's "intriguing" that some states that reopened "despite warnings of dire consequences from health experts" have -- so far -- not seen any dramatic spikes in new cases. "Is it still too early to tell?" he asked Azar Sunday morning.
"We are seeing that in areas that are opening, we're not seeing the spike in cases," Azar said. "We still see spikes in some areas that are, in fact, closed, very localized situations. And so this is going to be very important for us to watch the circumstances on the ground."
He said the Trump administration has set a goal for 300 million doses of a coronavirus vaccine to be available to Americans by the end of 2020, although he noted this is "not a pledge." Azar added that reopening "does not depend on a vaccine" getting developed, but that the Trump administration is "committed to delivering a vaccine" using the full power of the federal government and private sector.
Read in Newsweek: https://apple.news/Ay52Yu7QPR9q-pw7Vnxb-Vw
2. "As coronavirus testing expands, a new problem arises: Not enough people to test
While some states still face supply shortages, many others are grappling with the challenge of persuading people to get tested."
"Four months into the U.S. coronavirus outbreak, tests for the virus finally are becoming widely available, a crucial step toward lifting stay-at-home orders and safely returning to normal life. But while many states no longer report crippling supply shortages, a new problem has emerged: too few people lining up to get tested.
A Washington Post survey of governors’ offices and state health departments found at least a dozen states where testing capacity outstrips the supply of patients. Many have scrambled to make testing more convenient, especially for vulnerable communities, by setting up pop-up sites and developing apps that help assess symptoms, find free test sites and deliver quick results.
But the numbers, while rising, are well short of capacity — and far short of targets set by independent experts.
“We know there’s a lack of trust in the African American community with the medical profession,” said Ala Stanford, a pediatric surgeon in Philadelphia who started a group to provide free testing in low-income and minority communities, which have been hit particularly hard by the virus.
According to the COVID Tracking Project, the nation is currently testing about 330,000 people a day, a rate that, if sustained, would cover about 3 percent of the population a month. That’s double last month’s average, achieving a goal set by the White House, but still far short of the number most independent analysts say will be needed to avoid another wave of death and illness in the months ahead.
Last week, Jha and other Harvard researchers estimated that the United States should be testing at least 900,000 people a day, or about 8 percent of the population per month. At that rate, they say, local officials would get a clear sense of the spread of the virus, would be able to detect clusters of infection in the early stages and could move to isolate people who test positive or have been exposed, a process known as contact tracing.
Read in The Washington Post: https://apple.news/AK02u4XzkQge6V6m-e8KJCg no paywall
3. "Moderna vaccine shows promising early results in human safety tests
The biotech company testing a leading coronavirus vaccine candidate plans to launch a large trial in July to test the effectiveness of the vaccine."
[This is being viewed as a big deal, and drove up the stock market on Monday.]
"Moderna, the Massachusetts biotechnology company behind a leading effort to create a coronavirus vaccine, announced promising early results Monday from its first human safety tests.
The eagerly-awaited data provide a first look at one of the eight vaccines worldwide that have begun human testing. The data have not been published in a scientific journal and are only a preliminary step toward showing the experimental vaccine is safe and effective."
Read in The Washington Post: https://apple.news/At3Zk02IoR4qZNjAbSrPEOg no paywall
"Meet The Harvard Professor Who Became A Billionaire Thanks To Coronavirus"
"Harvard biology professor and serial entrepreneur Timothy Springer saw promise in a fledgling biotech firm a decade ago and made an early investment. Now, primarily as a result of that bet — on a Cambridge, Massachusetts company called Moderna — he’s a billionaire.
Shares of Moderna, which has a Covid-19 vaccine currently in human clinical trials, rose more than 12% [last] week, bucking the overall drop in the stock market. That surge has turned Springer into a billionaire: Forbes estimates he is now worth $1 billion based on his 3.5% equity stake in Moderna and stakes in three smaller biotech outfits.
“My philosophy is investing in what you know, and I’m a scientist at heart. I love discovering things,” Springer, 72, told Forbes. “Many scientists start companies but few are successful. I’m an active investor and also a very rigorous scientist, and that’s why I have a very high batting average.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/giacomotognini/2020/05/16/exclusive-harvard-professor-who-became-a-billionaire-thanks-to-moderna-talks-about-his-investing/#570f53e96b8d
4. "How Virus Data Can Mislead
And what else you need to know today."
"Over the next couple of weeks, it’s going to be important to keep this recent history in mind. Without mass testing — and the United States is not doing mass testing — there is a lag before a virus outbreak becomes apparent. Most people who develop symptoms don’t do so for at least five days, and sometimes longer. The worst symptoms usually take almost three weeks to appear.
With more parts of the U.S. starting to reopen, many people will be tempted to look at the data this week and start proclaiming victory over the virus. But this week’s data won’t tell us much. It will instead reflect the reality from early May and late April, when much of the country was still on lockdown.
“The data are always two or three weeks old,” Ezekiel Emanuel of the University of Pennsylvania told me. “And we have a hard time understanding that things are different from what we’re looking at.” Crystal Watson of Johns Hopkins University told The Associated Press that we wouldn’t really know how reopening had affected the virus’s spread for five to six weeks.
It’s possible that the reopenings won’t cause the outbreaks that many epidemiologists fear — because many people will still stay home, or because they will venture out cautiously, or because the virus may spread more slowly in warmer air. But it’s also possible that the country will find itself suffering through a new wave of outbreaks in June."
Read in The New York Times: https://apple.news/AyNTEtnEIRDuzCeVuvSS6yA
5. "70 cases of COVID-19 at French schools days after re-opening
Just one week after a third of French children went back to school in an easing of the coronavirus lockdown, there’s been a worrying flareup of about 70 COVID-19 cases linked to schools"
"Just one week after a third of French schoolchildren went back to school in an easing of the coronavirus lockdown, there has been a worrying flareup of about 70 COVID-19 cases linked to schools, the government said Monday.
Some lower grades in schools were opened last week and a further 150,000 junior high students went back to the classroom Monday as further restrictions were loosened by the government. The move initially spelled relief: the end of homeschooling for hundreds of thousands of exhausted French parents, many of whom were also working from home.
But French Education minister Jean-Michel Blanquer sounded the alarm Monday, telling French radio RTL that the return has put some children in new danger of infection. He said the affected schools are being closed immediately. French media reported that seven schools in northern France were closed.
The situation highlights the precarious situation the French government finds itself in as it seeks both to reassure the public that the country is moving forward past coronavirus and to react prudently to safeguard public health.
Blanquer did not specify if the 70 cases of COVID-19 were amongng students or teachers.Given that the incubation period for the virus is several days, people are “likely” to have been infected before the reopening of the schools, he said.
France reopened about 40,000 preschools and primary schools last week, with classes capped at 15 students.
About 30% of children went back to school, Blanquer said. The government has allowed parents to keep children at home."
Read in ABC News: https://apple.news/AnYZn1kcVRFSpstQStMhm6A
6. "Coronavirus Brings Beer Drinkers Back to Bud Light
Craft brewers face a reckoning as Americans opt for value and familiarity with brands like Miller Lite and Coors Light"
"Big beer brands had been losing ground for years before the coronavirus struck. Now drinkers are turning back to mainstream beers as the crisis shifts sales from tap rooms to grocery store aisles, giving a boost to giant beer companies while putting small craft breweries in peril.
The crisis has reversed the trajectory of long-declining beers such as Bud Light, Miller Lite and Coors Light, but it isn’t clear how long the effect will last. The biggest U.S. brewers are hoping some of the people who have returned to these American lagers will stick with them after the lockdowns lift.
The coronavirus crisis has shut restaurants, bars, tap rooms and other out-of-home venues that together make up about 18% of U.S. beer sales. A jump in retail-store beer sales hasn’t entirely made up for those losses, but it has given new life to flagging mainstream beer brands.
Beer drinkers have turned to box stores and grocery stores, and they are buying beer in 24- and 30-packs so they can make fewer trips. Shoppers are experimenting less, gravitating to brands they trust and looking for healthier, lower-calorie beers. Some people, out of work or watching their budgets, are trading down to cheaper options. And distributors and retailers, looking to simplify their supply chain, are trimming the number of products they carry.
All of those factors are hurting small craft brewers, which make most of their sales in their own tap rooms. Many craft beer brands aren’t distributed in retail stores. For most craft breweries, on-site sales were down by more than 70% in early April, and sales of craft beer to bars and restaurants had evaporated, according to a survey by the Brewers Association, an industry group.
The shift in buying behavior has been a boon for megabrewers such as Budweiser maker Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, BUD 7.86% which said its net sales grew in the U.S. by 1.9% in the first quarter despite the global crisis.
Sales of mainstream beers like Bud Light and Coors Light in U.S. retail stores fell 3.1% in 2019. Since coronavirus pantry-loading began in early March, sales in that category have jumped 10.7% from the same period a year ago"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-brings-beer-drinkers-back-to-bud-light-11589799376
7. "Uber Cuts 3,000 More Jobs, Shuts 45 Offices in Coronavirus Crunch
The ride-hailing giant also is exploring the sale of noncore businesses
"Uber Technologies Inc. is cutting several thousand additional jobs, closing more than three dozen offices and re-evaluating big bets in areas ranging from freight to self-driving technology as Chief Executive Dara Khosrowshahi attempts to steer the ride-hailing giant through the coronavirus pandemic.
Mr. Khosrowshahi announced the plans in an email to staff Monday, less than two weeks after the company said it would eliminate about 3,700 jobs and planned to save more than $1 billion in fixed costs. Monday’s decision to close 45 offices and lay off some 3,000 more people means Uber is shedding roughly a quarter of its workforce in under a month’s time. Drivers aren’t classified as employees, so they aren’t included.
Stay-at-home orders have ravaged Uber’s core ride-hailing business, which accounted for three-quarters of the company’s revenue before the pandemic struck. Uber’s rides business in April was down 80% from a year earlier.
Uber is in talks to buy rival Grubhub Inc., according to people familiar with the matter, a deal that would help stem losses from the cost-intensive business of building out delivery operations and give Uber an edge in competing with industry leader DoorDash Inc. Mr. Khosrowshahi didn’t reference the potential deal in his memo."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/uber-cuts-3-000-more-jobs-shuts-45-offices-in-coronavirus-crunch-11589814608?mod=hp_lead_pos4
8. "Harvard professors say this economic crisis really is different
Bloomberg
The professors, whose 2009 book showed that financial crises often follow similar patterns, spoke to us about what's happening in 2020."
[These profs are heavy hitters.]
When Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff published their heavyweight history of financial crises in late 2009, the title was ironic. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly reminded readers that the catastrophic 2008-09 credit crisis was far from unique. The authors became the go-to experts on the history of government defaults, recessions, bank runs, currency sell-offs, and inflationary spikes. Everything seemed to be part of a predictable pattern.
And yet a little more than a decade later, we’re experiencing what appears to be a one-of-a-kind crisis. The Covid-19 pandemic has catapulted the world into its deepest recession since the Great Depression, provoking an unprecedented fiscal and monetary response. To figure out what might be next, Bloomberg Markets spoke to Reinhart, a former deputy director at the International Monetary Fund who’s now a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School, and Rogoff, a former IMF chief economist who’s now a professor at Harvard. It turns out this time really is different.
Yes. Obviously there are a lot of references to the influenza pandemic of 1918, which, of course, was the deadliest with estimated worldwide deaths around 50 million—maybe, by some estimates, as many as 100 million. So pandemics are not new. But the policy response to pandemics that we’re seeing is definitely new. If you look at the year 1918, when deaths in the U.S. during the Spanish influenza pandemic peaked, that’s 675,000. Real GDP that year grew 9%. So the dominant economic model at the time was war production. You really can’t use that experience as any template for this. That’s one difference.
It’s certainly different from prior pandemics in terms of the economy, the policy response, the shutdown. The other thing that I like to highlight that is very different is how sudden this has been. If you look at U.S. unemployment claims in six weeks, we’ve had [job losses that] took 60 weeks in terms of the run-up. If you look at capital flows to emerging markets, the same story. The reversal in capital flows in the four weeks ending in March matched the decline during the [2008-09] global financial crisis, which took a year. So the abruptness and the widespread shutdowns we had not seen before.
KR: Certainly the global nature of it is different and this highlights the speed. We have the first global recession crisis really since the Great Depression. In 2008 it was the rich countries and not the emerging markets. They [the emerging markets] had a “good” crisis in 2008, but they’re not going to this time, regardless of how the virus hits them.
I don’t know how long it’s going to take us to get back to the 2019 per capita GDP. I would say, looking at it now, five years would seem like a good outcome”
Read the full story
9. "Trump says he's taking hydroxychloroquine, the drug he touted as coronavirus treatment, despite FDA warnings"
[My infectious disease malaria specialist friend says this drug can cause bad heart issues and is best used in a hospital setting. I suppose Trump is usually very close to healthcare.]
"President Donald Trump said Monday he is taking hydroxychloroquine, a drug that he's repeatedly touted as a treatment for coronavirus, despite warnings about its effectiveness.
"I happen to be taking it," Trump said during a roundtable discussion with restaurant executives at the White House. "I hope to not be able to take it soon, you know, because I hope that they come up with some answer. But I think people should be allowed to."
The Food and Drug Administration has cautioned against the use of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, a related drug, for COVID-19 treatment outside of hospitals or clinical trials due to the risk of heart rhythm problems.
"Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine have not been shown to be safe and effective for treating or preventing COVID-19," the FDA warned. Both can cause abnormal heart rhythms and a dangerously rapid heart rate, the statement said."
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/05/18/coronavirus-trump-says-hes-taking-hydroxychloroquine/5216400002/
10. "China. They Can’t Pay It Back.
Nations want Beijing to forgive or renegotiate loans as their economies suffer. Doing so would be costly. Saying no could hurt China’s global image.
"As the coronavirus spread around the globe, Pakistan’s foreign minister called his counterpart in Beijing last month with an urgent request: The country’s economy was nose-diving, and the government needed to restructure billions of dollars of Chinese loans.
Similar requests have come flooding in to Beijing from Kyrgyzstan, Sri Lanka and a number of African nations, asking to restructure, delay repayments or forgive tens of billions of dollars of loans coming due this year.
With each request, China’s drive to become the developing world’s biggest banker is backfiring. Over the last two decades it unleashed a global lending spree, showering countries with hundreds of billions of dollars, in an effort to expand its influence and become a political and economic superpower. Borrowers put up ports, mines and other crown jewels as collateral.
Now, as the world economy reels, countries are increasingly telling Beijing they can’t pay the money back.
The Kiel Institute, a German research group, pegs China’s lending to the developing world at $520 billion or more, with the vast majority doled out in the last few years. That makes Beijing a bigger lender than the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/business/china-loans-coronavirus-belt-road.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
11. "Thinking of Buying a Bike? Get Ready for a Very Long Wait
The United States is facing a shortage of bicycles as anxiety over public transportation and a desire to exercise has sent the demand surging."
Some bicycle shops in Brooklyn are selling twice as many bikes as usual and drawing blocklong lines of customers. A chain of shops in Phoenix is selling three times the number of bikes it typically does. A retailer in Washington, D.C., sold all its entry-level bikes by the end of April and has fielded more preorders than ever in its 50-year history.
As the coronavirus pandemic shrinks life in major American cities — limiting pastimes and discouraging use of buses and subways — hundreds of thousands of Americans are flocking to one of the most basic forms of mobility: the bicycle.
In March, nationwide sales of bicycles, equipment and repair services nearly doubled compared with the same period last year, according to the N.P.D. Group, a market research company. Sales of commuter and fitness bikes in the same month increased 66 percent, leisure bikes jumped 121 percent, children’s bikes went up 59 percent and electric bikes rose 85 percent.
By the end of April, many stores and distributors had sold out of low-end consumer bikes. Now, the United States is facing a severe bicycle shortage as global supply chains, disrupted by the coronavirus outbreak, scramble to meet the surge in demand."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/nyregion/bike-shortage-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
12. [Some airline tidbits.]
"Low cost Ryanair Holdings PLC, Europe’s biggest carrier by passengers, has done away with lines for the toilets. Passengers are now required to raise their hand to request permission from a cabin crew member before using them.
Analysts at airline data firm OAG estimated that with new cleaning procedures, carriers might need to leave two hours for connections, up from 45 minutes for domestic flights and 90 for international connections.
Earlier this month, Frontier Airlines, thought it hit on a solution. Chief Executive Barry Biffle says he believes keeping middle seats empty does little for safety if passengers wear masks. To give passengers peace of mind, though, while not forcing the airline to operate money-losing flights, the airline created a new offering: for a $39 fee, a passenger could ensure being seated next to an empty middle seat. [Frontier took a lot of flack, but I like this idea.]
U.S. airlines like Delta, United and American Airlines Group Inc. had assembled global networks, securing lucrative airport slots and signing joint venture deals with global partners. Executives now believe international travel will be some of the last to recover."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/airline-travel-coronavirus-rules-11589823494?mod=hp_lead_pos7
"Health authorities, including the CDC, maintain that the risk of infection on airplanes is low. That may be even truer now that air travel has dropped dramatically. According to the latest industry data, the few flights that are operating have been, on average, less than 20% full, making it easier to adhere to social-distancing practices. To that end, many airlines are cordoning off middle seats and allowing passengers to move to empty rows. Some are capping total occupancy to 50%. Major airlines are also drastically curtailing in-flight food and beverage service to limit contact between customers and crew."
If I have to fly, should I wear a mask?
Yes. An increasing number of airlines—and many airports—are now requiring passengers to wear a mask or face covering, and will provide one if necessary. The new measure followed an extensive debate among health officials, after which the CDC revised its recommendation, now advising everyone, feeling ill or not, to wear a cloth face-covering when you might not be able to stand—or sit—at least 6 feet apart from another individual. Recent studies show that Covid-19 can be spread by people who don’t exhibit any symptoms and might not even realize that they’re infected. Face masks, or even cloth coverings, might not be a fail-safe, but they can help reduce transmission.
I’ve heard that airlines and airports are taking fliers’ temperatures. What happens if you are found to have a temperature?
If you have a fever—considered by medical professionals to be a temperature of 100.4 degrees or higher—you likely won’t be permitted to board a flight, or, if you are arriving in from another country, you’ll be referred to local health authorities. “If someone is showing signs of a generic illness or Covid-19, they’ll likely be tested if they’re arriving from a country that has identified cases,” said Courtney Kansler, senior health intelligence analyst for risk management company WorldAware.
Is there any point in buying travel insurance if coronavirus isn’t covered by it?
If you’re insuring your trip because of Covid-19 you are probably out of luck; most trip-protection policies won’t refund you if you back out of an upcoming trip because you’re afraid to go. But there are plenty of other reasons to insure your trip; you might get a partial refund if your policy includes trip interruption coverage and you fall ill while traveling, or have to return home earlier than expected, depending on the circumstances. Another option is to buy a much more expensive “cancel for any reason” policy. These CFAR plans, as they’re known, frequently cost 40% more than basic insurance, and the coverage often pays out only 50% to 75% of your total expenses, compared with the full cost paid by regular policies.
Is now a good time to buy an airline ticket for the fall or winter? Will I get a good deal?
If you spot a low fare for travel later in the year, you might want to snap it up now, especially for travel over a holiday. Currently, bargains abound and if you book before June 1, you can change your dates without penalty for flights on most U.S. airlines. But don’t be surprised if your fare searches also turn up some steep prices too, especially for busy times like Thanksgiving; with many planes grounded, airlines have fewer seats to fill and if demand rises, so will prices."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/all-your-coronavirus-travel-questions-answered-11582980999?mod=article_inline
13. "Moderna’s Vaccine Hope
The biotech firm says its Phase 1 trial shows promising results."
"It took 20 months for scientists to prepare a SARS vaccine for test on humans, but private innovation is compressing the time-frame against Covid-19. Using rapid genetic sequencing and its nimble mRNA manufacturing platform, Moderna was able to develop and deliver a vaccine to the National Institutes of Health for clinical trials in late February.
Moderna’s mRNA vaccine gives cells a building manual to produce a particle that resembles the spike on the coronavirus. The goal is to induce an antibody response similar to the actual virus. Because the vaccine doesn’t utilize a pathogen particle, there are fewer safety risks. Production can also rapidly be scaled up using a standardized process.
The first phase of a clinical trial examining whether the vaccine is safe and causes an immune response began in mid-March. Forty-five healthy volunteers ages 18 to 55 received varying doses. Moderna reported on Monday that all participants who had been evaluated after receiving two doses developed antibody levels at or above levels of those seen in patients who have recovered from the virus.
This suggests that the vaccine could be effective, and none of the participants experienced severe side effects. Separately, Moderna reported that its vaccine “provided full protection against viral replication in the lungs” in mice infected with the coronavirus. On May 7, the Food and Drug Administration cleared the company to begin phase two of its trial with 600 participants including individuals over age 55 to determine whether they also muster a robust immune response.
But more than 100 vaccines are in development worldwide, and the Gates Foundation and the National Institutes of Health are investing heavily to accelerate those like Moderna’s with the most scientific potential based on early evidence.
Scaling up manufacturing will take time, but Moderna’s factory outside Boston can produce 100 million doses a year and it is working with Swiss firm Lonza to increase capacity to up to one billion doses. Other drug manufacturers are also gearing up factories to churn out vaccines if their candidates show promise."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/modernas-vaccine-hope-11589835889?mod=hp_opin_pos_1
14. "The Latest: Notre Dame plans to reopen campus in August"
"Notre Dame is planning to allow students back on campus for the fall semester beginning in early August and end the semester before Thanksgiving.
University President, Rev. John I. Jenkins, made the announcement Monday in letters to the campus community. There was no mention of sports.
The school's reopening plan will include comprehensive testing for COVID-19, contact tracing, quarantine and isolation protocols, social distancing and mask requirements, and enhanced cleaning of all campus spaces."
https://sports.yahoo.com/latest-nascar-pocono-races-might-run-without-fans-210708244--spt.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9zZWFyY2gueWFob28uY29tL3NlYXJjaD9laT11dGYtOCZmcj1hYXBsdyZwPW5vdHJlK2RhbWUrd2lsbCtvcGVuK3NjaG9vbA&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFDlMlc3HZrxzYB914ZLxfzEMELgk8Po7uDOxuA6saXuU5MtHTlb_x5xvumMyikMvGRVkfILVMgB74os04o9_UFAUbSQgZzLRhupgFzHRYW-2_BxQyVbv_K77thUkvRfgv_Zl8SgJJ2qrIzo6FEu7__oHWYcTo4dzEfQ_tjSyqmO
1. "States That Reopened Have Not Had Spike in New COVID-19 Cases: HHS Chief
"Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said Sunday he has not seen any spikes in new coronavirus cases in states that recently reopened "non-essential" businesses.
The HHS chief expressed optimism that state governments have the tools to avoid new outbreaks of COVID-19, as several places including Wisconsin, South Carolina, Georgia and Colorado enter new phases of reopening local businesses. Several states have recorded record highs in the number of new daily coronavirus cases, but those numbers are in direct correlation to an increasing amount of tests being made available to residents. Newly reported deaths tied to the virus have leveled off or decreased.
During a CNN interview, host Jake Tapper said to Azar that it's "intriguing" that some states that reopened "despite warnings of dire consequences from health experts" have -- so far -- not seen any dramatic spikes in new cases. "Is it still too early to tell?" he asked Azar Sunday morning.
"We are seeing that in areas that are opening, we're not seeing the spike in cases," Azar said. "We still see spikes in some areas that are, in fact, closed, very localized situations. And so this is going to be very important for us to watch the circumstances on the ground."
He said the Trump administration has set a goal for 300 million doses of a coronavirus vaccine to be available to Americans by the end of 2020, although he noted this is "not a pledge." Azar added that reopening "does not depend on a vaccine" getting developed, but that the Trump administration is "committed to delivering a vaccine" using the full power of the federal government and private sector.
Read in Newsweek: https://apple.news/Ay52Yu7QPR9q-pw7Vnxb-Vw
2. "As coronavirus testing expands, a new problem arises: Not enough people to test
While some states still face supply shortages, many others are grappling with the challenge of persuading people to get tested."
"Four months into the U.S. coronavirus outbreak, tests for the virus finally are becoming widely available, a crucial step toward lifting stay-at-home orders and safely returning to normal life. But while many states no longer report crippling supply shortages, a new problem has emerged: too few people lining up to get tested.
A Washington Post survey of governors’ offices and state health departments found at least a dozen states where testing capacity outstrips the supply of patients. Many have scrambled to make testing more convenient, especially for vulnerable communities, by setting up pop-up sites and developing apps that help assess symptoms, find free test sites and deliver quick results.
But the numbers, while rising, are well short of capacity — and far short of targets set by independent experts.
“We know there’s a lack of trust in the African American community with the medical profession,” said Ala Stanford, a pediatric surgeon in Philadelphia who started a group to provide free testing in low-income and minority communities, which have been hit particularly hard by the virus.
According to the COVID Tracking Project, the nation is currently testing about 330,000 people a day, a rate that, if sustained, would cover about 3 percent of the population a month. That’s double last month’s average, achieving a goal set by the White House, but still far short of the number most independent analysts say will be needed to avoid another wave of death and illness in the months ahead.
Last week, Jha and other Harvard researchers estimated that the United States should be testing at least 900,000 people a day, or about 8 percent of the population per month. At that rate, they say, local officials would get a clear sense of the spread of the virus, would be able to detect clusters of infection in the early stages and could move to isolate people who test positive or have been exposed, a process known as contact tracing.
Read in The Washington Post: https://apple.news/AK02u4XzkQge6V6m-e8KJCg no paywall
3. "Moderna vaccine shows promising early results in human safety tests
The biotech company testing a leading coronavirus vaccine candidate plans to launch a large trial in July to test the effectiveness of the vaccine."
[This is being viewed as a big deal, and drove up the stock market on Monday.]
"Moderna, the Massachusetts biotechnology company behind a leading effort to create a coronavirus vaccine, announced promising early results Monday from its first human safety tests.
The eagerly-awaited data provide a first look at one of the eight vaccines worldwide that have begun human testing. The data have not been published in a scientific journal and are only a preliminary step toward showing the experimental vaccine is safe and effective."
Read in The Washington Post: https://apple.news/At3Zk02IoR4qZNjAbSrPEOg no paywall
"Meet The Harvard Professor Who Became A Billionaire Thanks To Coronavirus"
"Harvard biology professor and serial entrepreneur Timothy Springer saw promise in a fledgling biotech firm a decade ago and made an early investment. Now, primarily as a result of that bet — on a Cambridge, Massachusetts company called Moderna — he’s a billionaire.
Shares of Moderna, which has a Covid-19 vaccine currently in human clinical trials, rose more than 12% [last] week, bucking the overall drop in the stock market. That surge has turned Springer into a billionaire: Forbes estimates he is now worth $1 billion based on his 3.5% equity stake in Moderna and stakes in three smaller biotech outfits.
“My philosophy is investing in what you know, and I’m a scientist at heart. I love discovering things,” Springer, 72, told Forbes. “Many scientists start companies but few are successful. I’m an active investor and also a very rigorous scientist, and that’s why I have a very high batting average.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/giacomotognini/2020/05/16/exclusive-harvard-professor-who-became-a-billionaire-thanks-to-moderna-talks-about-his-investing/#570f53e96b8d
4. "How Virus Data Can Mislead
And what else you need to know today."
"Over the next couple of weeks, it’s going to be important to keep this recent history in mind. Without mass testing — and the United States is not doing mass testing — there is a lag before a virus outbreak becomes apparent. Most people who develop symptoms don’t do so for at least five days, and sometimes longer. The worst symptoms usually take almost three weeks to appear.
With more parts of the U.S. starting to reopen, many people will be tempted to look at the data this week and start proclaiming victory over the virus. But this week’s data won’t tell us much. It will instead reflect the reality from early May and late April, when much of the country was still on lockdown.
“The data are always two or three weeks old,” Ezekiel Emanuel of the University of Pennsylvania told me. “And we have a hard time understanding that things are different from what we’re looking at.” Crystal Watson of Johns Hopkins University told The Associated Press that we wouldn’t really know how reopening had affected the virus’s spread for five to six weeks.
It’s possible that the reopenings won’t cause the outbreaks that many epidemiologists fear — because many people will still stay home, or because they will venture out cautiously, or because the virus may spread more slowly in warmer air. But it’s also possible that the country will find itself suffering through a new wave of outbreaks in June."
Read in The New York Times: https://apple.news/AyNTEtnEIRDuzCeVuvSS6yA
5. "70 cases of COVID-19 at French schools days after re-opening
Just one week after a third of French children went back to school in an easing of the coronavirus lockdown, there’s been a worrying flareup of about 70 COVID-19 cases linked to schools"
"Just one week after a third of French schoolchildren went back to school in an easing of the coronavirus lockdown, there has been a worrying flareup of about 70 COVID-19 cases linked to schools, the government said Monday.
Some lower grades in schools were opened last week and a further 150,000 junior high students went back to the classroom Monday as further restrictions were loosened by the government. The move initially spelled relief: the end of homeschooling for hundreds of thousands of exhausted French parents, many of whom were also working from home.
But French Education minister Jean-Michel Blanquer sounded the alarm Monday, telling French radio RTL that the return has put some children in new danger of infection. He said the affected schools are being closed immediately. French media reported that seven schools in northern France were closed.
The situation highlights the precarious situation the French government finds itself in as it seeks both to reassure the public that the country is moving forward past coronavirus and to react prudently to safeguard public health.
Blanquer did not specify if the 70 cases of COVID-19 were amongng students or teachers.Given that the incubation period for the virus is several days, people are “likely” to have been infected before the reopening of the schools, he said.
France reopened about 40,000 preschools and primary schools last week, with classes capped at 15 students.
About 30% of children went back to school, Blanquer said. The government has allowed parents to keep children at home."
Read in ABC News: https://apple.news/AnYZn1kcVRFSpstQStMhm6A
6. "Coronavirus Brings Beer Drinkers Back to Bud Light
Craft brewers face a reckoning as Americans opt for value and familiarity with brands like Miller Lite and Coors Light"
"Big beer brands had been losing ground for years before the coronavirus struck. Now drinkers are turning back to mainstream beers as the crisis shifts sales from tap rooms to grocery store aisles, giving a boost to giant beer companies while putting small craft breweries in peril.
The crisis has reversed the trajectory of long-declining beers such as Bud Light, Miller Lite and Coors Light, but it isn’t clear how long the effect will last. The biggest U.S. brewers are hoping some of the people who have returned to these American lagers will stick with them after the lockdowns lift.
The coronavirus crisis has shut restaurants, bars, tap rooms and other out-of-home venues that together make up about 18% of U.S. beer sales. A jump in retail-store beer sales hasn’t entirely made up for those losses, but it has given new life to flagging mainstream beer brands.
Beer drinkers have turned to box stores and grocery stores, and they are buying beer in 24- and 30-packs so they can make fewer trips. Shoppers are experimenting less, gravitating to brands they trust and looking for healthier, lower-calorie beers. Some people, out of work or watching their budgets, are trading down to cheaper options. And distributors and retailers, looking to simplify their supply chain, are trimming the number of products they carry.
All of those factors are hurting small craft brewers, which make most of their sales in their own tap rooms. Many craft beer brands aren’t distributed in retail stores. For most craft breweries, on-site sales were down by more than 70% in early April, and sales of craft beer to bars and restaurants had evaporated, according to a survey by the Brewers Association, an industry group.
The shift in buying behavior has been a boon for megabrewers such as Budweiser maker Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, BUD 7.86% which said its net sales grew in the U.S. by 1.9% in the first quarter despite the global crisis.
Sales of mainstream beers like Bud Light and Coors Light in U.S. retail stores fell 3.1% in 2019. Since coronavirus pantry-loading began in early March, sales in that category have jumped 10.7% from the same period a year ago"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-brings-beer-drinkers-back-to-bud-light-11589799376
7. "Uber Cuts 3,000 More Jobs, Shuts 45 Offices in Coronavirus Crunch
The ride-hailing giant also is exploring the sale of noncore businesses
"Uber Technologies Inc. is cutting several thousand additional jobs, closing more than three dozen offices and re-evaluating big bets in areas ranging from freight to self-driving technology as Chief Executive Dara Khosrowshahi attempts to steer the ride-hailing giant through the coronavirus pandemic.
Mr. Khosrowshahi announced the plans in an email to staff Monday, less than two weeks after the company said it would eliminate about 3,700 jobs and planned to save more than $1 billion in fixed costs. Monday’s decision to close 45 offices and lay off some 3,000 more people means Uber is shedding roughly a quarter of its workforce in under a month’s time. Drivers aren’t classified as employees, so they aren’t included.
Stay-at-home orders have ravaged Uber’s core ride-hailing business, which accounted for three-quarters of the company’s revenue before the pandemic struck. Uber’s rides business in April was down 80% from a year earlier.
Uber is in talks to buy rival Grubhub Inc., according to people familiar with the matter, a deal that would help stem losses from the cost-intensive business of building out delivery operations and give Uber an edge in competing with industry leader DoorDash Inc. Mr. Khosrowshahi didn’t reference the potential deal in his memo."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/uber-cuts-3-000-more-jobs-shuts-45-offices-in-coronavirus-crunch-11589814608?mod=hp_lead_pos4
8. "Harvard professors say this economic crisis really is different
Bloomberg
The professors, whose 2009 book showed that financial crises often follow similar patterns, spoke to us about what's happening in 2020."
[These profs are heavy hitters.]
When Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff published their heavyweight history of financial crises in late 2009, the title was ironic. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly reminded readers that the catastrophic 2008-09 credit crisis was far from unique. The authors became the go-to experts on the history of government defaults, recessions, bank runs, currency sell-offs, and inflationary spikes. Everything seemed to be part of a predictable pattern.
And yet a little more than a decade later, we’re experiencing what appears to be a one-of-a-kind crisis. The Covid-19 pandemic has catapulted the world into its deepest recession since the Great Depression, provoking an unprecedented fiscal and monetary response. To figure out what might be next, Bloomberg Markets spoke to Reinhart, a former deputy director at the International Monetary Fund who’s now a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School, and Rogoff, a former IMF chief economist who’s now a professor at Harvard. It turns out this time really is different.
Yes. Obviously there are a lot of references to the influenza pandemic of 1918, which, of course, was the deadliest with estimated worldwide deaths around 50 million—maybe, by some estimates, as many as 100 million. So pandemics are not new. But the policy response to pandemics that we’re seeing is definitely new. If you look at the year 1918, when deaths in the U.S. during the Spanish influenza pandemic peaked, that’s 675,000. Real GDP that year grew 9%. So the dominant economic model at the time was war production. You really can’t use that experience as any template for this. That’s one difference.
It’s certainly different from prior pandemics in terms of the economy, the policy response, the shutdown. The other thing that I like to highlight that is very different is how sudden this has been. If you look at U.S. unemployment claims in six weeks, we’ve had [job losses that] took 60 weeks in terms of the run-up. If you look at capital flows to emerging markets, the same story. The reversal in capital flows in the four weeks ending in March matched the decline during the [2008-09] global financial crisis, which took a year. So the abruptness and the widespread shutdowns we had not seen before.
KR: Certainly the global nature of it is different and this highlights the speed. We have the first global recession crisis really since the Great Depression. In 2008 it was the rich countries and not the emerging markets. They [the emerging markets] had a “good” crisis in 2008, but they’re not going to this time, regardless of how the virus hits them.
I don’t know how long it’s going to take us to get back to the 2019 per capita GDP. I would say, looking at it now, five years would seem like a good outcome”
Read the full story
9. "Trump says he's taking hydroxychloroquine, the drug he touted as coronavirus treatment, despite FDA warnings"
[My infectious disease malaria specialist friend says this drug can cause bad heart issues and is best used in a hospital setting. I suppose Trump is usually very close to healthcare.]
"President Donald Trump said Monday he is taking hydroxychloroquine, a drug that he's repeatedly touted as a treatment for coronavirus, despite warnings about its effectiveness.
"I happen to be taking it," Trump said during a roundtable discussion with restaurant executives at the White House. "I hope to not be able to take it soon, you know, because I hope that they come up with some answer. But I think people should be allowed to."
The Food and Drug Administration has cautioned against the use of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, a related drug, for COVID-19 treatment outside of hospitals or clinical trials due to the risk of heart rhythm problems.
"Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine have not been shown to be safe and effective for treating or preventing COVID-19," the FDA warned. Both can cause abnormal heart rhythms and a dangerously rapid heart rate, the statement said."
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/05/18/coronavirus-trump-says-hes-taking-hydroxychloroquine/5216400002/
10. "China. They Can’t Pay It Back.
Nations want Beijing to forgive or renegotiate loans as their economies suffer. Doing so would be costly. Saying no could hurt China’s global image.
"As the coronavirus spread around the globe, Pakistan’s foreign minister called his counterpart in Beijing last month with an urgent request: The country’s economy was nose-diving, and the government needed to restructure billions of dollars of Chinese loans.
Similar requests have come flooding in to Beijing from Kyrgyzstan, Sri Lanka and a number of African nations, asking to restructure, delay repayments or forgive tens of billions of dollars of loans coming due this year.
With each request, China’s drive to become the developing world’s biggest banker is backfiring. Over the last two decades it unleashed a global lending spree, showering countries with hundreds of billions of dollars, in an effort to expand its influence and become a political and economic superpower. Borrowers put up ports, mines and other crown jewels as collateral.
Now, as the world economy reels, countries are increasingly telling Beijing they can’t pay the money back.
The Kiel Institute, a German research group, pegs China’s lending to the developing world at $520 billion or more, with the vast majority doled out in the last few years. That makes Beijing a bigger lender than the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/business/china-loans-coronavirus-belt-road.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
11. "Thinking of Buying a Bike? Get Ready for a Very Long Wait
The United States is facing a shortage of bicycles as anxiety over public transportation and a desire to exercise has sent the demand surging."
Some bicycle shops in Brooklyn are selling twice as many bikes as usual and drawing blocklong lines of customers. A chain of shops in Phoenix is selling three times the number of bikes it typically does. A retailer in Washington, D.C., sold all its entry-level bikes by the end of April and has fielded more preorders than ever in its 50-year history.
As the coronavirus pandemic shrinks life in major American cities — limiting pastimes and discouraging use of buses and subways — hundreds of thousands of Americans are flocking to one of the most basic forms of mobility: the bicycle.
In March, nationwide sales of bicycles, equipment and repair services nearly doubled compared with the same period last year, according to the N.P.D. Group, a market research company. Sales of commuter and fitness bikes in the same month increased 66 percent, leisure bikes jumped 121 percent, children’s bikes went up 59 percent and electric bikes rose 85 percent.
By the end of April, many stores and distributors had sold out of low-end consumer bikes. Now, the United States is facing a severe bicycle shortage as global supply chains, disrupted by the coronavirus outbreak, scramble to meet the surge in demand."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/nyregion/bike-shortage-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
12. [Some airline tidbits.]
"Low cost Ryanair Holdings PLC, Europe’s biggest carrier by passengers, has done away with lines for the toilets. Passengers are now required to raise their hand to request permission from a cabin crew member before using them.
Analysts at airline data firm OAG estimated that with new cleaning procedures, carriers might need to leave two hours for connections, up from 45 minutes for domestic flights and 90 for international connections.
Earlier this month, Frontier Airlines, thought it hit on a solution. Chief Executive Barry Biffle says he believes keeping middle seats empty does little for safety if passengers wear masks. To give passengers peace of mind, though, while not forcing the airline to operate money-losing flights, the airline created a new offering: for a $39 fee, a passenger could ensure being seated next to an empty middle seat. [Frontier took a lot of flack, but I like this idea.]
U.S. airlines like Delta, United and American Airlines Group Inc. had assembled global networks, securing lucrative airport slots and signing joint venture deals with global partners. Executives now believe international travel will be some of the last to recover."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/airline-travel-coronavirus-rules-11589823494?mod=hp_lead_pos7
"Health authorities, including the CDC, maintain that the risk of infection on airplanes is low. That may be even truer now that air travel has dropped dramatically. According to the latest industry data, the few flights that are operating have been, on average, less than 20% full, making it easier to adhere to social-distancing practices. To that end, many airlines are cordoning off middle seats and allowing passengers to move to empty rows. Some are capping total occupancy to 50%. Major airlines are also drastically curtailing in-flight food and beverage service to limit contact between customers and crew."
If I have to fly, should I wear a mask?
Yes. An increasing number of airlines—and many airports—are now requiring passengers to wear a mask or face covering, and will provide one if necessary. The new measure followed an extensive debate among health officials, after which the CDC revised its recommendation, now advising everyone, feeling ill or not, to wear a cloth face-covering when you might not be able to stand—or sit—at least 6 feet apart from another individual. Recent studies show that Covid-19 can be spread by people who don’t exhibit any symptoms and might not even realize that they’re infected. Face masks, or even cloth coverings, might not be a fail-safe, but they can help reduce transmission.
I’ve heard that airlines and airports are taking fliers’ temperatures. What happens if you are found to have a temperature?
If you have a fever—considered by medical professionals to be a temperature of 100.4 degrees or higher—you likely won’t be permitted to board a flight, or, if you are arriving in from another country, you’ll be referred to local health authorities. “If someone is showing signs of a generic illness or Covid-19, they’ll likely be tested if they’re arriving from a country that has identified cases,” said Courtney Kansler, senior health intelligence analyst for risk management company WorldAware.
Is there any point in buying travel insurance if coronavirus isn’t covered by it?
If you’re insuring your trip because of Covid-19 you are probably out of luck; most trip-protection policies won’t refund you if you back out of an upcoming trip because you’re afraid to go. But there are plenty of other reasons to insure your trip; you might get a partial refund if your policy includes trip interruption coverage and you fall ill while traveling, or have to return home earlier than expected, depending on the circumstances. Another option is to buy a much more expensive “cancel for any reason” policy. These CFAR plans, as they’re known, frequently cost 40% more than basic insurance, and the coverage often pays out only 50% to 75% of your total expenses, compared with the full cost paid by regular policies.
Is now a good time to buy an airline ticket for the fall or winter? Will I get a good deal?
If you spot a low fare for travel later in the year, you might want to snap it up now, especially for travel over a holiday. Currently, bargains abound and if you book before June 1, you can change your dates without penalty for flights on most U.S. airlines. But don’t be surprised if your fare searches also turn up some steep prices too, especially for busy times like Thanksgiving; with many planes grounded, airlines have fewer seats to fill and if demand rises, so will prices."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/all-your-coronavirus-travel-questions-answered-11582980999?mod=article_inline
13. "Moderna’s Vaccine Hope
The biotech firm says its Phase 1 trial shows promising results."
"It took 20 months for scientists to prepare a SARS vaccine for test on humans, but private innovation is compressing the time-frame against Covid-19. Using rapid genetic sequencing and its nimble mRNA manufacturing platform, Moderna was able to develop and deliver a vaccine to the National Institutes of Health for clinical trials in late February.
Moderna’s mRNA vaccine gives cells a building manual to produce a particle that resembles the spike on the coronavirus. The goal is to induce an antibody response similar to the actual virus. Because the vaccine doesn’t utilize a pathogen particle, there are fewer safety risks. Production can also rapidly be scaled up using a standardized process.
The first phase of a clinical trial examining whether the vaccine is safe and causes an immune response began in mid-March. Forty-five healthy volunteers ages 18 to 55 received varying doses. Moderna reported on Monday that all participants who had been evaluated after receiving two doses developed antibody levels at or above levels of those seen in patients who have recovered from the virus.
This suggests that the vaccine could be effective, and none of the participants experienced severe side effects. Separately, Moderna reported that its vaccine “provided full protection against viral replication in the lungs” in mice infected with the coronavirus. On May 7, the Food and Drug Administration cleared the company to begin phase two of its trial with 600 participants including individuals over age 55 to determine whether they also muster a robust immune response.
But more than 100 vaccines are in development worldwide, and the Gates Foundation and the National Institutes of Health are investing heavily to accelerate those like Moderna’s with the most scientific potential based on early evidence.
Scaling up manufacturing will take time, but Moderna’s factory outside Boston can produce 100 million doses a year and it is working with Swiss firm Lonza to increase capacity to up to one billion doses. Other drug manufacturers are also gearing up factories to churn out vaccines if their candidates show promise."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/modernas-vaccine-hope-11589835889?mod=hp_opin_pos_1
14. "The Latest: Notre Dame plans to reopen campus in August"
"Notre Dame is planning to allow students back on campus for the fall semester beginning in early August and end the semester before Thanksgiving.
University President, Rev. John I. Jenkins, made the announcement Monday in letters to the campus community. There was no mention of sports.
The school's reopening plan will include comprehensive testing for COVID-19, contact tracing, quarantine and isolation protocols, social distancing and mask requirements, and enhanced cleaning of all campus spaces."
https://sports.yahoo.com/latest-nascar-pocono-races-might-run-without-fans-210708244--spt.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9zZWFyY2gueWFob28uY29tL3NlYXJjaD9laT11dGYtOCZmcj1hYXBsdyZwPW5vdHJlK2RhbWUrd2lsbCtvcGVuK3NjaG9vbA&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFDlMlc3HZrxzYB914ZLxfzEMELgk8Po7uDOxuA6saXuU5MtHTlb_x5xvumMyikMvGRVkfILVMgB74os04o9_UFAUbSQgZzLRhupgFzHRYW-2_BxQyVbv_K77thUkvRfgv_Zl8SgJJ2qrIzo6FEu7__oHWYcTo4dzEfQ_tjSyqmO
