Some Ask a Taboo Question: Is America Overreacting to Coronavirus?

[AllWeatherFan]

The Bullock rules don't really apply to Helena because restaurants, bars and gyms are already closed. Besides stores, which of course are allowed, there is nothing else to do in Helena anyway.

Hiking Mount Helena or Refrigerator Canyon are both options.

 

[PlayerRep]

"Analysts Slash GDP Estimates as Coronavirus Ripples Through Economy

Goldman analysts see the U.S. economy contracting 24% in second quarter, a rate nearly five times as large as bank’s previous forecast"

"Analysts now project the U.S. economy could shrink at rates far worse than the 2008 global recession, ending weeks of cautious optimism about its ability to withstand the fallout from the coronavirus.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on Friday said they expect the economy to contract 24% in the second quarter, a rate nearly five times as large as the bank’s previous forecast of a 5% decline. Goldman said a decrease of that magnitude would far outpace the largest quarterly drop in gross domestic product on record—during the first quarter of the 1958 recession, when the U.S. economy contracted 10%.

“The sudden stop in U.S. economic activity in response to the virus is unprecedented, and the early data points over the last week strengthen our confidence that a dramatic slowdown is indeed already underway,” the bank said in its report.

The fallout from the coronavirus pandemic has swelled in recent days, as cities and states across the nation have increasingly mandated that residents stay home. Millions of American employees are now required to work from home. Retailers, bars and restaurants across the country have temporarily closed. And several airlines have cut flights and grounded portions of their fleets."

[This was a March 20 article, so a bit out fo date. Far worse than 2008 and 1056 recessions.]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/analysts-slash-gdp-estimates-as-coronavirus-ripples-through-economy-11584735139. paywall problem

 

[Cuervohola]

The Bullock rules don't really apply to Helena because restaurants, bars and gyms are already closed. Besides stores, which of course are allowed, there is nothing else to do in Helena anyway.

Hiking Mount Helena or Refrigerator Canyon are both options.

Wonder if Bullock banned fishing?

 

[PlayerRep]

Am hearing that some churches that are renting their buildings will be unable to pay rent, and some are starting to look for alternate space. Donations going down because people not able to come to church, and a lot of the congregation is now having its own financial problems with their own businesses and lives. I suppose those with mortgages will have similar problems.

 

[TCCGRIZ]

Bullock issues shelter-in-place. Starting at 12:01 on Saturday morning, I believe. Overkill.

Shelter-in-place but you can still go out for a laundry list of reasons including physical exercise. Seems like a contradiction to me. Also wonder what is deemed non-essential besides bars, hair salons, and massage parlors?

I don't see a contradiction. Shelter in place isn't a quarantine. As long as you practice safe distancing and take other reasonable precautions, you can be outside. Just don't form an impromptu mosh pit in the public park.

My wife is concluding that she can no longer play doubles tennis with her friends. They've been playing outside. They got some input from a cop in the group. Seems ridiculous to me.

While a lot of things are permitted, it seems a lot of things are not allowed. Lots of stores. Barnes and Noble and other bookstores have been open. Didn't notice them on the allowed list, but the Bullock letter is very long and hard to read and understand. It seems that a lot of construction is not allowed, altho some didn't seem to be allowed before the last order.

Best Buy. It's been open for curbside service. We went yesterday to get a new router. Not sure where it stands now.

The list of outdoor activities is pretty short. Don't know if more stuff would be okay.

This post is directed at Everett. Curious about his view on outdoor tennis.

Work is going on as usual in my business.
Just taking precautions is all.
I'm viewing it as commercial construction is deemed essential .
I'm just keeping crews and subs separated and /or one trade on site at a time as needed.
Plus 2 of the 3 jobs are in the foundation phase and all work is being performed outside

 

[TCCGRIZ]

Am hearing that some churches that are renting their buildings will be unable to pay rent, and some are starting to look for alternate space. Donations going down because people not able to come to church, and a lot of the congregation is now having its own financial problems with their own businesses and lives. I suppose those with mortgages will have similar problems.

My Pastor ( who btw got a flight along with the Mt tech kids out of Peru yesterday )
Is worried about this as well.
The building is owned by the church but monthly expenses are still there .

 

[PlayerRep]

The Bullock rules don't really apply to Helena because restaurants, bars and gyms are already closed. Besides stores, which of course are allowed, there is nothing else to do in Helena anyway.

Hiking Mount Helena or Refrigerator Canyon are both options.

Wonder if Bullock banned fishing?

Interesting question. Would seem to be silly to not allow that, but also seems inconsistent with shelter at home, with some exercise. People can use the state and national forests, I think I read. I can't imagine that Bullock wold prevent fishing. But then people would have to stop to get gas more, and perhaps go by snacks more.

How about fishing on a boat with other people? That would seem to be more problematical than fishing along, whether in boat or otherwise.

The State can't regulate fishing on reservations, generally.

 

[PlayerRep]

Am hearing that some churches that are renting their buildings will be unable to pay rent, and some are starting to look for alternate space. Donations going down because people not able to come to church, and a lot of the congregation is now having its own financial problems with their own businesses and lives. I suppose those with mortgages will have similar problems.

My Pastor ( who btw got a flight along with the Mt tech kids out of Peru yesterday )
Is worried about this as well.
The building is owned by the church but monthly expenses are still there .

Glad they got home. They were getting a lot of press, so it was only a matter of time.

 

[PlayerRep]

Shelter-in-place but you can still go out for a laundry list of reasons including physical exercise. Seems like a contradiction to me. Also wonder what is deemed non-essential besides bars, hair salons, and massage parlors?

I don't see a contradiction. Shelter in place isn't a quarantine. As long as you practice safe distancing and take other reasonable precautions, you can be outside. Just don't form an impromptu mosh pit in the public park.

My wife is concluding that she can no longer play doubles tennis with her friends. They've been playing outside. They got some input from a cop in the group. Seems ridiculous to me.

While a lot of things are permitted, it seems a lot of things are not allowed. Lots of stores. Barnes and Noble and other bookstores have been open. Didn't notice them on the allowed list, but the Bullock letter is very long and hard to read and understand. It seems that a lot of construction is not allowed, altho some didn't seem to be allowed before the last order.

Best Buy. It's been open for curbside service. We went yesterday to get a new router. Not sure where it stands now.

The list of outdoor activities is pretty short. Don't know if more stuff would be okay.

This post is directed at Everett. Curious about his view on outdoor tennis.

Work is going on as usual in my business.
Just taking precautions is all.
I'm viewing it as commercial construction is deemed essential .
I'm just keeping crews and subs separated and /or one trade on site at a time as needed.
Plus 2 of the 3 jobs are in the foundation phase and all work is being performed outside

I sure hope that this is deemed to be fine.

 

[mcg]

Seems like an odd time to ratchet up. 90 cases, now. No deaths. Few, if any, sick enough to be in hospital. Lots of beds available.

Only 16 or so counties with cases; about 40 counties with no cases. Only Gallatin with growing and concerning number of cases (38). That’s 40% in Gallatin Missoula and Ravalli counties have a total of 8.

22 other states have it. Idaho does now. The only states from the West Coast to Minn/Ill/ to have it are Idaho, Colorado and New Mexico. Texas and Florida don’t have it. No states in the southeast have it (7 states), but they have some areas with it, as do some other states. I have no problems with shutting down certain counties and areas.

The same day Trump admin announced to governors the plan for federal government to rate all counties in US, as high, medium or low risk. I assume most MT counties will be low risk.

Same day as press saying that the main guy behind the prestigious study predicting large growth and deaths, which caused the UK to changes its policies to close things down, and reportedly caused Trump to get more cautious, has changed his view, significantly, to predict way fewer deaths.

Edit: "Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential death toll on Wednesday."

This won’t change my life much if at all.

My view is that this is overkill and will hurt way more people than it may help. Even Gov. Cuomo is saying to just address the places that need help and need to be addressed.

Also, I don’t think many people will comply with it. Won’t make sense to them. I think Bullock should have kept his powder dry, and saved this for later if necessary. I just don’t see people in the US and in MT being willing to shelter-in-place very long, except in various hotspots like NYC and similar places.

It seemed to me that most MT people were complying with the existing social distancing and limited shut-down rules. That made more sense and was easier to comply with.

The problem is that if you wait till you are 100% sure a stay at home order is needed, it's already too late. That's pretty much what happened in Italy.

 

[Htowngriz]

The Bullock rules don't really apply to Helena because restaurants, bars and gyms are already closed. Besides stores, which of course are allowed, there is nothing else to do in Helena anyway.

Hiking Mount Helena or Refrigerator Canyon are both options.

Wonder if Bullock banned fishing?

Interesting question. Would seem to be silly to not allow that, but also seems inconsistent with shelter at home, with some exercise. People can use the state and national forests, I think I read. I can't imagine that Bullock wold prevent fishing. But then people would have to stop to get gas more, and perhaps go by snacks more.

How about fishing on a boat with other people? That would seem to be more problematical than fishing along, whether in boat or otherwise.

The State can't regulate fishing on reservations, generally.

As far as I can tell, all outdoor activities are still allowed as long as you're able to maintain 6 feet of distance. Which obviously isn't that difficult here.

 

[ilovethecats]

I don't see a contradiction. Shelter in place isn't a quarantine. As long as you practice safe distancing and take other reasonable precautions, you can be outside. Just don't form an impromptu mosh pit in the public park.

My wife is concluding that she can no longer play doubles tennis with her friends. They've been playing outside. They got some input from a cop in the group. Seems ridiculous to me.

While a lot of things are permitted, it seems a lot of things are not allowed. Lots of stores. Barnes and Noble and other bookstores have been open. Didn't notice them on the allowed list, but the Bullock letter is very long and hard to read and understand. It seems that a lot of construction is not allowed, altho some didn't seem to be allowed before the last order.

Best Buy. It's been open for curbside service. We went yesterday to get a new router. Not sure where it stands now.

The list of outdoor activities is pretty short. Don't know if more stuff would be okay.

This post is directed at Everett. Curious about his view on outdoor tennis.

Work is going on as usual in my business.
Just taking precautions is all.
I'm viewing it as commercial construction is deemed essential .
I'm just keeping crews and subs separated and /or one trade on site at a time as needed.
Plus 2 of the 3 jobs are in the foundation phase and all work is being performed outside

I sure hope that this is deemed to be fine.

I'm not trying to make light of everything. But honestly for Montanans very little changed after the governors announcement yesterday. At least in regards to what has already been done. You can still go to Target or Costco. Wanna grab a burger at your favorite joint? That's fine too. Or many will deliver right to your door. Need vodka? All liquor stores remain open unless they are within a casino. Get outside; local parks and trails as well as rivers still wide open.

For me personally, very little has changed today from what it was over a week ago.

 

[PlayerRep]

My wife is concluding that she can no longer play doubles tennis with her friends. They've been playing outside. They got some input from a cop in the group. Seems ridiculous to me.

While a lot of things are permitted, it seems a lot of things are not allowed. Lots of stores. Barnes and Noble and other bookstores have been open. Didn't notice them on the allowed list, but the Bullock letter is very long and hard to read and understand. It seems that a lot of construction is not allowed, altho some didn't seem to be allowed before the last order.

Best Buy. It's been open for curbside service. We went yesterday to get a new router. Not sure where it stands now.

The list of outdoor activities is pretty short. Don't know if more stuff would be okay.

This post is directed at Everett. Curious about his view on outdoor tennis.

Work is going on as usual in my business.
Just taking precautions is all.
I'm viewing it as commercial construction is deemed essential .
I'm just keeping crews and subs separated and /or one trade on site at a time as needed.
Plus 2 of the 3 jobs are in the foundation phase and all work is being performed outside

I sure hope that this is deemed to be fine.

I'm not trying to make light of everything. But honestly for Montanans very little changed after the governors announcement yesterday. At least in regards to what has already been done. You can still go to Target or Costco. Wanna grab a burger at your favorite joint? That's fine too. Or many will deliver right to your door. Need vodka? All liquor stores remain open unless they are within a casino. Get outside; local parks and trails as well as rivers still wide open.

For me personally, very little has changed today from what it was over a week ago.

I think more businesses will have to close.

If nothing changed, why was the order necessary?

What about golf, tennis?

Edit:

What about Dillards at the Missoula mall. Mall now closed, but this store can be accessed from outside. Think it's still open.

What about sporting goods? Think Bob Wards has been open. Looks like Cabela's and Sportsman Warehouse are open today, if their web presence is correct.

Running shoe stores. Runner's Edge seems to be open.

Some but not all Missoula bike shops seem to be open.

Trailhead seems to be open.

"Essential? Retailers Like Guitar Center and Michaels Think They Are"

"At some Guitar Center stores, employees are still allowing customers to try out models of guitars. Dillard’s, a department store chain popular in the South, is still welcoming shoppers looking for clothing and makeup. And Michaels, the arts and crafts chain, says it is keeping many of its stores open to provide supplies to parents teaching their homebound children.


Several retailers — like Sears, Kmart, and Joann Fabric and Craft Stores — have provided employees with letters they can share, arguing that their businesses are essential."


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/business/coronavirus-essential-retailers.html

 

[PlayerRep]

Seems like an odd time to ratchet up. 90 cases, now. No deaths. Few, if any, sick enough to be in hospital. Lots of beds available.

Only 16 or so counties with cases; about 40 counties with no cases. Only Gallatin with growing and concerning number of cases (38). That’s 40% in Gallatin Missoula and Ravalli counties have a total of 8.

22 other states have it. Idaho does now. The only states from the West Coast to Minn/Ill/ to have it are Idaho, Colorado and New Mexico. Texas and Florida don’t have it. No states in the southeast have it (7 states), but they have some areas with it, as do some other states. I have no problems with shutting down certain counties and areas.

The same day Trump admin announced to governors the plan for federal government to rate all counties in US, as high, medium or low risk. I assume most MT counties will be low risk.

Same day as press saying that the main guy behind the prestigious study predicting large growth and deaths, which caused the UK to changes its policies to close things down, and reportedly caused Trump to get more cautious, has changed his view, significantly, to predict way fewer deaths.

Edit: "Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential death toll on Wednesday."

This won’t change my life much if at all.

My view is that this is overkill and will hurt way more people than it may help. Even Gov. Cuomo is saying to just address the places that need help and need to be addressed.

Also, I don’t think many people will comply with it. Won’t make sense to them. I think Bullock should have kept his powder dry, and saved this for later if necessary. I just don’t see people in the US and in MT being willing to shelter-in-place very long, except in various hotspots like NYC and similar places.

It seemed to me that most MT people were complying with the existing social distancing and limited shut-down rules. That made more sense and was easier to comply with.

The problem is that if you wait till you are 100% sure a stay at home order is needed, it's already too late. That's pretty much what happened in Italy.

I don't agree. Do you think a stay at home is necessary for eastern MT, where they is one case. It was a traveller who returned from out of the country, I believe.

Note that Gov. Cuomo is now wondering if they made a mistake to order people to stay at home.

Where's the evidence or date that stay at home does more good than harm?

 

[Cuervohola]

Nothing has changed. Bullock is just taking advantage of his last months in power. The closures that have been in place were obvious. I think he's looking at NYC and thinking the streets here have to be deserted also.

 

[ilovethecats]

Work is going on as usual in my business.
Just taking precautions is all.
I'm viewing it as commercial construction is deemed essential .
I'm just keeping crews and subs separated and /or one trade on site at a time as needed.
Plus 2 of the 3 jobs are in the foundation phase and all work is being performed outside

I sure hope that this is deemed to be fine.

I'm not trying to make light of everything. But honestly for Montanans very little changed after the governors announcement yesterday. At least in regards to what has already been done. You can still go to Target or Costco. Wanna grab a burger at your favorite joint? That's fine too. Or many will deliver right to your door. Need vodka? All liquor stores remain open unless they are within a casino. Get outside; local parks and trails as well as rivers still wide open.

For me personally, very little has changed today from what it was over a week ago.

I think more businesses will have to close.

If nothing changed, why was the order necessary?

What about golf, tennis?

I'm just speaking where I am in Bozeman and the guidelines that were already in place before the shelter in place last night. All restaurants are still open for take out or delivery. All grocery stores still open. Places like Home Depot are considered essential. Liquor stores wide open. Breweries are still delivering or open for takeout.

I don't know about all golf courses but depending on the property I know some can remain open. Or I should say I know for a fact one that you can play!

 

[cclarkblues]

Work is going on as usual in my business.
Just taking precautions is all.
I'm viewing it as commercial construction is deemed essential .
I'm just keeping crews and subs separated and /or one trade on site at a time as needed.
Plus 2 of the 3 jobs are in the foundation phase and all work is being performed outside

I sure hope that this is deemed to be fine.

I'm not trying to make light of everything. But honestly for Montanans very little changed after the governors announcement yesterday. At least in regards to what has already been done. You can still go to Target or Costco. Wanna grab a burger at your favorite joint? That's fine too. Or many will deliver right to your door. Need vodka? All liquor stores remain open unless they are within a casino. Get outside; local parks and trails as well as rivers still wide open.

For me personally, very little has changed today from what it was over a week ago.

I think more businesses will have to close.

If nothing changed, why was the order necessary?

What about golf, tennis?

If you golf like me, you rarely even see someone since you're so far out in the rough. Fishing should not be a problem except maybe on the Bighorn.

 

[TCCGRIZ]

I don't see a contradiction. Shelter in place isn't a quarantine. As long as you practice safe distancing and take other reasonable precautions, you can be outside. Just don't form an impromptu mosh pit in the public park.

My wife is concluding that she can no longer play doubles tennis with her friends. They've been playing outside. They got some input from a cop in the group. Seems ridiculous to me.

While a lot of things are permitted, it seems a lot of things are not allowed. Lots of stores. Barnes and Noble and other bookstores have been open. Didn't notice them on the allowed list, but the Bullock letter is very long and hard to read and understand. It seems that a lot of construction is not allowed, altho some didn't seem to be allowed before the last order.

Best Buy. It's been open for curbside service. We went yesterday to get a new router. Not sure where it stands now.

The list of outdoor activities is pretty short. Don't know if more stuff would be okay.

This post is directed at Everett. Curious about his view on outdoor tennis.

Work is going on as usual in my business.
Just taking precautions is all.
I'm viewing it as commercial construction is deemed essential .
I'm just keeping crews and subs separated and /or one trade on site at a time as needed.
Plus 2 of the 3 jobs are in the foundation phase and all work is being performed outside

I sure hope that this is deemed to be fine.

One project is a Veterinary Hospital in Butte .
The Directive states work on Hospitals is essential.
Tradesmen are essential workers .
The other project in Butte we are working on an essential business.
One in Missoula is a commercial project do we n to interior finishes .
The way I read the Directive as well as a few Attorneys for a large Mt corporation seem to think we are good to keep going .
I talked with Butte Silverbow officials as well this am .
My biggest concerns were "Inspections " and third party testing that is required.

 

[gotgame75]

This isn’t a debate, it’s a fool’s bargain. Economies can bounce back, but lives cannot be recovered. It’s tough medicine to be sure, but we as a nation have to get this right the first time or the long term economic toll will be catastrophic. We are in the position we are currently because we were not adequately prepared. Do we really want to tempt fate yet again by ignoring the warning of those that spend their lives studying these things?

Why are Americans so arrogant that we believe we don’t have to hold ourselves to the same standards as the rest of the world? The virus will prey upon this laissez faire attitude as it’s our greatest vulnerability. We as a nation have no tolerance for being inconvenienced.

I encourage anyone who is interested in this “debate” to watch Anderson Cooper’s interview with Bill Gates last night. He offers an encouraging, but sobering take on the current state of America.

 

[PlayerRep]

My wife is concluding that she can no longer play doubles tennis with her friends. They've been playing outside. They got some input from a cop in the group. Seems ridiculous to me.

While a lot of things are permitted, it seems a lot of things are not allowed. Lots of stores. Barnes and Noble and other bookstores have been open. Didn't notice them on the allowed list, but the Bullock letter is very long and hard to read and understand. It seems that a lot of construction is not allowed, altho some didn't seem to be allowed before the last order.

Best Buy. It's been open for curbside service. We went yesterday to get a new router. Not sure where it stands now.

The list of outdoor activities is pretty short. Don't know if more stuff would be okay.

This post is directed at Everett. Curious about his view on outdoor tennis.

Work is going on as usual in my business.
Just taking precautions is all.
I'm viewing it as commercial construction is deemed essential .
I'm just keeping crews and subs separated and /or one trade on site at a time as needed.
Plus 2 of the 3 jobs are in the foundation phase and all work is being performed outside

I sure hope that this is deemed to be fine.

I'm not trying to make light of everything. But honestly for Montanans very little changed after the governors announcement yesterday. At least in regards to what has already been done. You can still go to Target or Costco. Wanna grab a burger at your favorite joint? That's fine too. Or many will deliver right to your door. Need vodka? All liquor stores remain open unless they are within a casino. Get outside; local parks and trails as well as rivers still wide open.

For me personally, very little has changed today from what it was over a week ago.

See these quotes from a Missoulian article. It says order will have a "dramatic" affect.

"The order to stay at home, which takes effect Saturday at 12:01 a.m. and expires April 10, will have a dramatic effect on day-to-day life here."

Bullock's order generally tells people to stay home except to conduct essential activities like purchasing groceries or medications and to travel to some types of work and to care for others in need. Essential businesses are allowed to operate, but all others must close. Employees are allowed to work from home when possible, however. Essential businesses that keep operating must comply with social distancing requirements."

https://missoulian.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/montana-sees-first-covid--death-residents-ordered-to-stay/article_65f424c9-7fd7-56c7-8463-afd06c63f168.html#tracking-source=home-top-story-1