Sac state!

[LongTimeCatFan]

The Griz don't have their "backs up against the wall".

Well, I don't know what your definition is, but the conference title is gone and if UM loses this game, playoffs are gone too.

Patently false.

It’s false but not “patently false.” We could drop the Sac State and MSU games and if we win the Weber and USD games we will make the playoffs almost certainly. I personally think we will most likely lose one more game and be 9-3. That certainly would exceed my expectations from the beginning of the year by a mile.

The Big Sky is only getting 2 maybe 3 bids. What makes you think the 4th or 5th best BSC team will be invited? You have to win out or only lose to MSU by a few, but win the other 3. That's provided that MSU beats EWU.

GPI has the BSC at 5th this year. MSU losing to SFA really screwed us all.

 

[LongTimeCatFan]

Longtimecatfan, You're a good poster. Keep posting. But just because Colter says the Griz have to win out, doesn't make it true. Colter is a good writer, follows the FCS well and has a lot of working knowledge of the teams HE COVERS. BUT he doesn't know what the FCS selection committee will do come Nov. 24th anymore then you or I do. Things written on BN are no more gospel than they are on Egriz.

Haha do you have ESP?

Do the math, it's based on logic. I don't always agree with Colter, but I'm not sure how you can argue with him on this one.

 

[CDAGRIZ]

Longtimecatfan, You're a good poster. Keep posting. But just because Colter says the Griz have to win out, doesn't make it true. Colter is a good writer, follows the FCS well and has a lot of working knowledge of the teams HE COVERS. BUT he doesn't know what the FCS selection committee will do come Nov. 24th anymore then you or I do. Things written on BN are no more gospel than they are on Egriz.

Haha do you have ESP?

Do the math, it's based on logic. I don't always agree with Colter, but I'm not sure how you can argue with him on this one.

I think it has to do with ski hill proximity.

 

[George Ferguson]

Two reasons I can argue with him. The first I don't need to justify, but the second is, long experience. The Griz aren't 11-0 or 12-0 every time they've made the playoffs in the last two decades. I've seen an 8-3 Griz team with a loss to an NCAA D11 on their schedule get into the playoffs when it was a 16-team bracket. I think the Griz can lose one more game and get in, but NOT two. I picked the Griz to lose this year to NAU, EWU and the Cats.

As I said before, Colter is good what it he does. I enjoy reading his stuff, I think he is an excellent journalist. I think he covers the Cats exceptionally well. But he was writing his OPINION about the upcoming playoffs. He doesn't know for a fact what will happen with the Grizzlies should they drop one more game.

 

[Potomac Griz]

The Big Sky is only getting 2 maybe 3 bids. What makes you think the 4th or 5th best BSC team will be invited? You have to win out or only lose to MSU by a few, but win the other 3. That's provided that MSU beats EWU.

GPI has the BSC at 5th this year. MSU losing to SFA really screwed us all.

Very doubtful the Big Sky will only get 2. Only way that happens is if NAU falls apart, the Griz don't play well enough to make it, Sac loses their 5th and SUU drops their 5th.

Chances are we'll end up with EWU, MSU and NAU for sure, and depending on how Sac and the Griz do, either Sac or the Griz. How I see it is the Griz get in if they beat Sac, USD, and Weber but lose to the cats. No problem getting in then.

I do agree though that the Sac game is almost certainly a must win (depending on how Sac does with their remaining games). If the Griz beat USD, Weber, but lose to Sac and the Cats, AND Sac ends up at 8-4 (tied with the Griz in record) then it gets very iffy and I bet Sac would be the 4th team in due to 2 of their losses being to FBS teams. Plus their conference record would only have 1 loss, unlike the Griz with 4 losses... Highly unlikely a 5th Big Sky teams gets in then, so the Griz would be out

Now, if instead of losing to Sac the Griz drop the non-conference game against SD and beat Sac, then Sac is out for sure. I could then see the Griz squeaking in as the 4th Big Sky team...then again I could see them being left out and only 3 Big Sky teams getting in.

Anyway, the TL;DR version of this - To be safe & definitely in the playoffs with no worrying about it the Griz need to win 3 of their next 4 games. If they drop 2, it gets very iffy, especially if one of those 2 is against Sac & Sac ends up 8-4 also, meaning we'd need 5 big sky teams to make it (doubtful even with the expanded field). Personally I think the Griz will beat Sac, finish 9-3 and be in the playoffs

 

[LongTimeCatFan]

Two reasons I can argue with him. The first I don't need to justify, but the second is, long experience. The Griz aren't 11-0 or 12-0 every time they've made the playoffs in the last two decades. I've seen an 8-3 Griz team with a loss to an NCAA D11 on their schedule get into the playoffs when it was a 16-team bracket. I think the Griz can lose one more game and get in, but NOT two. I picked the Griz to lose this year to NAU, EWU and the Cats.

As I said before, Colter is good what it he does. I enjoy reading his stuff, I think he is an excellent journalist. I think he covers the Cats exceptionally well. But he was writing his OPINION about the upcoming playoffs. He doesn't know for a fact what will happen with the Grizzlies should they drop one more game.

But in those years, the Griz either won or shared the conference. That's all but out of the question now. I'd rather you guys get in than Sac or NAU, unless its at the expense of the Cat/Griz game of course but like I said, his logic is hard to argue with.

 

[George Ferguson]

In the season I was speaking of, the Griz shared the title but did not get the AQ. If you're not the AQ your an at-large even if you hang a Big Sky banner. Period. At 9-3 the Griz are a 100 PERCENT LOCK. Which means the Big Sky gets four, as per the most recent TSN playoff projections. If NAU loses twice and the Griz once, the Griz will also get in over NAU in that scenario. But that's not going to happen. NAU is not going to lose another game this season

 

[LongTimeCatFan]

The Big Sky is only getting 2 maybe 3 bids. What makes you think the 4th or 5th best BSC team will be invited? You have to win out or only lose to MSU by a few, but win the other 3. That's provided that MSU beats EWU.

GPI has the BSC at 5th this year. MSU losing to SFA really screwed us all.

Very doubtful the Big Sky will only get 2. Only way that happens is if NAU falls apart, the Griz don't play well enough to make it, Sac loses their 5th and SUU drops their 5th.

Chances are we'll end up with EWU, MSU and NAU for sure, and depending on how Sac and the Griz do, either Sac or the Griz. How I see it is the Griz get in if they beat Sac, USD, and Weber but lose to the cats. No problem getting in then.

I do agree though that the Sac game is almost certainly a must win (depending on how Sac does with their remaining games). If the Griz beat USD, Weber, but lose to Sac and the Cats, AND Sac ends up at 8-4 (tied with the Griz in record) then it gets very iffy and I bet Sac would be the 4th team in due to 2 of their losses being to FBS teams. Plus their conference record would only have 1 loss, unlike the Griz with 4 losses... Highly unlikely a 5th Big Sky teams gets in then, so the Griz would be out

Now, if instead of losing to Sac the Griz drop the non-conference game against SD and beat Sac, then Sac is out for sure. I could then see the Griz squeaking in as the 4th Big Sky team...then again I could see them being left out and only 3 Big Sky teams getting in.

Anyway, the TL;DR version of this - To be safe & definitely in the playoffs with no worrying about it the Griz need to win 3 of their next 4 games. If they drop 2, it gets very iffy, especially if one of those 2 is against Sac & Sac ends up 8-4 also, meaning we'd need 5 big sky teams to make it (doubtful even with the expanded field). Personally I think the Griz will beat Sac, finish 9-3 and be in the playoffs

You can only lose to MSU and have a chance.

If you lose to Sac, as you pointed out, they have a better chance.

If you lose to USD or Weber, who both have losing records, you don't get in due to a late season face plant.

So in 2006 when MSU got in, we had a quality win over Colorado. This is not intended to be smack, but what would be UM's quality win if you lose to MSU? There isn't one. MSU needs to beat EWU and UM needs to win or lose close to MSU to have any chance. If MSU blows out UM (hasn't happened in 30 some years), there's no chance either.

 

[bigkid]

So what happens when msu loses to both ewu and Montana? Then they're 8-4. Nothing but a bunch of speculation.

 

[LongTimeCatFan]

So what happens when msu loses to both ewu and Montana? Then they're 8-4. Nothing but a bunch of speculation.

If MSU loses to both, MSU does not get in.

 

[Potomac Griz]

You can only lose to MSU and have a chance.

If you lose to Sac, as you pointed out, they have a better chance.

If you lose to USD or Weber, who both have losing records, you don't get in due to a late season face plant.

So in 2006 when MSU got in, we had a quality win over Colorado. This is not intended to be smack, but what would be UM's quality win if you lose to MSU? There isn't one. MSU needs to beat EWU and UM needs to win or lose close to MSU to have any chance. If MSU blows out UM (hasn't happened in 30 some years), there's no chance either.

Stranger things have happened. BTW South Dakota is 4-4 right now with a decent win over Northern Iowa, so they aren't half bad. At the end of the season though they'll likely be below .500 (They have Youngstown St, SDSU and NDSU + the Griz). So SD isn't too weak.

I'm just saying that it's a better possibility IF one of the 2 losses wasn't a conference loss, since it would mean we knocked Sac out of the running and make us the 4th Big Sky team in if they took 4 teams. Would the Griz deserve to be in at that point? That's be debatable wouldn't it? As you pointed out, no real quality wins. The best win we'd have would probably be Sac which (due to having 5 losses then) wouldn't be in the playoffs. It could be a semi-quality win provided that Sac wins the rest of their games though... at least it'd be a win over a team with a winning record (which is something we haven't had in 2 years).

If we lose to Sac though, and lose to the Cats I don't give us much chance of being in.

If we lose to Weber then we should probably just stop playing football for a while, sit in a corner and think about what we have done...

Anyway, I'd rather it not come to us hoping that the selection committee gods are favorable to us and give us a little help due to our long history in the playoffs. Honestly if it came to the Griz being 8-4 and we were the 4th place Big Sky team... I'm not sure I'd give our chances 50/50.

So what happens when msu loses to both ewu and Montana? Then they're 8-4. Nothing but a bunch of speculation.

Cats would be in a much better position to get in at 8-4 than we would. Now, you may ask why would it be any different than the Griz at 8-4? Well, one of the Cats losses is to an FBS team, which if I remember right would help lessen the blow of a loss a bit in the committee's eyes.

The Cats would also have a win against NAU (who is likely getting in). That's their only quality win though. So would they get in? Meh...maybe.

Now if the Cats get absolutely blown out by EWU AND the Griz then...they still might back into the playoffs but more likely they'd get the ol' snub like NAU did last year when they fell apart at the end of the season finishing 8-3.

Just my opinion anyway. I think the Cats, EWU and NAU are all in very good shape for making the playoffs provided none of them fall apart. The Griz are actually in good shape as well considering they SHOULD beat Sac, SD, and Weber. Take care of business in those three games and we are in the playoffs no matter what happens @MSU.

 

[Mr. Greenjeans]

So what happens when msu loses to both ewu and Montana? Then they're 8-4. Nothing but a bunch of speculation.

If MSU loses to both, MSU does not get in.

Huh, that's idiotic, MSU gets in at 8 and 4.

 

[Catsrback76]

Soooo, are you going to beat Sac State or not? Contrary to PR who thinks this isn't a must win, all this talk about playoffs is a bit premature as this next game won't be an easy one...and it is a must win!

 

[Potomac Griz]

Soooo, are you going to beat Sac State or not?

Yup.

 

[Catsrback76]

Soooo, are you going to beat Sac State or not?

Yup.

There you go! Back on track!

 

[DoubleNicks]

So in 2006 when MSU got in, we had a quality win over Colorado.

The same '06 Colorado that went 2-10 and lost to a DI-AA was considered quality? The loss to the Cats extended their losing streak from the year before to 5 games. Were they considered a quality win just because they were a bigger program with more scholarships or traditionally a good program? Because then our win against App State (who has great tradition and extra scholarships this year) has to be considered quality. :roll:

Do the math, it's based on logic.

While I'm not saying a 8-4 team from a power conference would for sure get in, are there really going to be 24 teams with better resumes by season's end? There are already multiple teams in the Top 25 with 4 loses at this point in the season and there are a lot of tough conference games remaining...

 

[LongTimeCatFan]

So in 2006 when MSU got in, we had a quality win over Colorado.

The same '06 Colorado that went 2-10 and lost to a DI-AA was considered quality? The loss to the Cats extended their losing streak from the year before to 5 games. Were they considered a quality win just because they were a bigger program with more scholarships or traditionally a good program? Because then our win against App State (who has great tradition and extra scholarships this year) has to be considered quality. :roll:

Do the math, it's based on logic.

While I'm not saying a 8-4 team from a power conference would for sure get in, are there really going to be 24 teams with better resumes by season's end? There are already multiple teams in the Top 25 with 4 loses at this point in the season and there are a lot of tough conference games remaining...

Any time an FCS beats an FBS the selection committee considers it a quality win.

There are 11 auto bids and 13 at large. Would you agree that you're not getting the auto? That puts you in the group of 13. My guess is all 13 go to conference title sharers who didn't get their AQ bid. However, I wouldn't be surprised if you win all but the Cat/Griz and still get in.

A 4th or 5th place BSC team is not likely, but at 9-3, it's hard to say no when those 3 losses are to the conference champions.

 

[AZGrizFan]

So in 2006 when MSU got in, we had a quality win over Colorado. This is not intended to be smack, but what would be UM's quality win if you lose to MSU? There isn't one. MSU needs to beat EWU and UM needs to win or lose close to MSU to have any chance. If MSU blows out UM (hasn't happened in 30 some years), there's no chance either.

What's Fordham's quality win? Charleston Southern's? Bethune-Cookman's? Hell, for that matter, when Youngstown loses to NDSU, what's Youngstown's quality win? Yet all these teams are virtual locks for the playoffs as they stand now. See how easy that is?

 

[PlayerRep]

SS has to run the table, beating UM, CP, PSU and Davis to get to 7 D-I wins. CP and PSU are on the road. SS's D-I wins are Weber, No Colo and ND. I don't see SS running the table, but, of course, it's possible if they get on a roll.

 

[Kadeezy]

Interesting Sac State note...

The Hornets have four losses this year:

-2 losses to FBS schools

-2 losses to FCS schools by a combined 4 points (by 3 to SUU in Overtime thanks to a couple bogus calls and dumb penalties and to NAU by 1 after blowing a 17 point fourth quarter lead against the 'Jacks...)