Please forgive me for being overly negative this early in the season, but the logic part of my brain keeps kicking in every time I begin to get excited about this season...
Last year's team was pretty good, but two major weaknesses cost them a shot at the conference title and a playoff run
1.) an unreliable kicking game and
2.) a secondary that simply could not stop the pass when it counted (i.e. Eastern, Coastal Carolina, etc.).
For anyone who forgot the big day Eastern had at Wa-Griz last year...
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJJ3z2akf90[/youtube]
Or how in the Coastal game, with the Griz up 7-0 and a chance for a second straight three and out, give up an 86-yard TD pass...
WARNING: The following link shows a Griz CB being severely burned. Viewer discretion is advised.
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:10095781
Over the last two seasons the Griz have had what could arguably have been the best group of starting linebackers the school has ever had. They also had a very good group of d-linemen that made for a solid front seven. The last two years they were able to offset what was arguably the worst secondary the Griz had in the last 20 years (i.e. Greg Hardin's 333 yards in 2012).
It should also be noted that the last two years were Grogoriak's first as a coordinator and based on the overall performance I'm not sure he's qualified for that role. In fact, one could argue that Tripp and Coyle made him look better than he actually was.
All those points aside, this year Alex, JP, Jordan and Brock are lost to graduation. Unless one of the JC guys is the next Tru, then I don't expect to see any significant improvement over last year.
So given the circumstances -- same coordinator and DBs while losing of the best defensive players to graduation/NFL -- logic would dictate that the defensive unit as a whole will simply not be as good as they were last year.
The Griz offense is also not going to be as strong. Most of the key skill guys are awesome and they are back. And JJ, Canada, and Henderson are all on watch lists, which is great. However, it all starts in the trenches. Unfortunately three of the five starters from last year's o-line are now in NFL training camps. That, at a minimum, is going to mean this year's offensive line will not be as strong as last year.
If the hogs struggle, especially early in the season or God forbid they can't stay healthy, then this offense, even with the returning skill guys, simply isn't going to be able to put points on the board like they did last year. That doesn't bode well for the team as a whole as I think the offense is going to have to compensate for a younger, less experienced defensive unit that is likely to give up some points -- especially in their non-conference season.
That leaves special teams, which really hasn't been very special the last couple of years. This is mostly because they haven't had a truly reliable kicker since McKnight. This changed the balance of some games last year as Mick lost faith in the kicking game and never seemed to be quite sure of what to call when drives stalled in the red zone.
He often ended up going for a 1st down instead of what is normally a make-able field goal. Bottom line he trusted his defense more than his kickers. When the offense walked off the field without putting any points in the board they were demoralized while the opposing defenses were energized.
To summarize, I see the Griz taking a step back in every phase of the game, which would likely mean they achieve less this season than they did last season. Someone please point out the flaws in my logic as it's hard to get psyched up for a second or third place finish in the BSC and an outside shot at a playoff game that may or may not be in Wa-Griz (not that it mattered last season).
Don't get me wrong, it's always a fun cheering on the Griz regardless, but I want to make sure I'm not getting my hopes up too high.