Preferred First Round Play-off Opponent?

[Montana Gym Rat]

Here's some "hot news" you may have missed:

San Diego withdraws from possible playoff bid

They currently lead the Pioneer Football League, but withdrew because they had financial aid policies that were "incompatible with PFL rules." The full, but brief item is at http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/...network&page=cfoot2/news/news.aspx?id=4639816

In the 12-team PFL, which has unbalanced scheduling, the playoff bid will go to Butler (8-3, 6-1), Marist (7-3, 6-1), Mercer (9-1, 5-1) or Drake (6-4, 5-2). There are two weekends remaining in the regular season.

Pay no attention to the comment about Drake -- they already have two conference losses and have to play San Diego in their final game

Marist is probably the best of the one-loss teams in that they actually played a full FCS schedule. Of course, Georgetown (1-8) doesn't count much because they are awful in football. Marist had a close (2-point) loss at San Diego. Their final game is at home, against Mercer -- which they should win.

Mercer has two more games: at Marist, and vs Stetson (2-7 overall). Mercer's record looks impressive until you discover that three of their wins were against two NAIA teams (which are 5-4 and a 0-10), and a 1-9 Division-III opponent. San Diego clobbered Mercer 45-13. In any case, either Marist or Mercer will end the season with 2 losses, and I'm guessing it will be Mercer.

That leaves Butler, which also got clobbered by San Diego, 42-14. Their final game is at Morehead State (3-7), which managed to lose to a mediocre NAIA school. So Butler should win that final game. (Two of Butler's wins, BTW, were against D-III opponents.)

That would leave a tie between Butler and (probably) Marist. God knows how their tie-breaker works, but those teams fall somewhere around UC-Davis and North Dakota in Gridiron Power Index. Still, one of them will get an automatic bid.

I was also under the impression that Mercer is ineligible to take the AQ from the Pioneer Football League too. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Mercer_Bears_football_team" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

They are giving out scholarships and will join the Southern Conference next year, after joining the PFL this year. I haven't found this noted in any of the news articles, and the Pioneer's own website shows San Diego as ineligible but not Mercer. So who knows for certain.

Butler should beat Morehead, and then they'll be tied with the winner of the Marist/Mercer winner. The tie-breaker would go to SRS ranking since Butler didn't play Marist nor Mercer. At this point Butler is 77, Marist is 79, and Mercer is 112. Both games are this Saturday, so we'll have one conference AQ decided. If Butler & Marist win as expected, it will all depend on how much they win by since that is the key feature of the SRS.

Crazy turn of events.

 

[IdaGriz01]

... That would leave a tie between Butler and (probably) Marist. God knows how their tie-breaker works [New info: see below], but those teams fall somewhere around UC-Davis and North Dakota in Gridiron Power Index. Still, one of them will get an automatic bid.

I was also under the impression that Mercer is ineligible to take the AQ from the Pioneer Football League too. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Mercer_Bears_football_team" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

They are giving out scholarships and will join the Southern Conference next year, after joining the PFL this year. I haven't found this noted in any of the news articles, and the Pioneer's own website shows San Diego as ineligible but not Mercer. So who knows for certain.

Butler should beat Morehead, and then they'll be tied with the winner of the Marist/Mercer winner. The tie-breaker would go to SRS ranking since Butler didn't play Marist nor Mercer. At this point Butler is 77, Marist is 79, and Mercer is 112. Both games are this Saturday, so we'll have one conference AQ decided. If Butler & Marist win as expected, it will all depend on how much they win by since that is the key feature of the SRS.

Crazy turn of events.

Apparently, the Wiki article is out of date on the status of Mercer. Just today, the conference put out a news release with its “PFL Automatic Qualifying Scenarios” -- and they spend a lot of time on various scenarios involving Mercer.
http://www.pioneer-football.org/new...-announces-adjustment-to-tiebreaker-criteria/
On that page, “Related Links” display PDF files: “PFL Revised Tiebreaker” and “PFL Tiebreaker Scenarios.”

They plan to use more than just the SRS if the “common opponent” comparison does not resolve the tie. Here’s the key revised text, issued yesterday:

If the teams are still tied, the league will determine the automatic qualifier based on the average rank of the tied teams using the seven computer rankings/ratings utilized by the Gridiron Power Index plus the Simple Rating System (if the SRS is publicly available prior to selection weekend).

The “Scenarios” document is pretty thorough, and several of the most probable play-outs end up using the ranking/ratings method. Still, they even found a way to give it to Drake:

Four-Way Tie: Butler, Drake, Marist and Mercer.
• Drake defeats San Diego. Morehead State defeats Butler. Mercer defeats Marist then loses to Stetson.
• Butler, Drake, Marist and Mercer are tied at 6-2.
• No team defeated all the others in the tie and they did not play each other.
• Common Opponents: Jacksonville, San Diego and Valparaiso. Drake is 2-1, other teams are 1-2.
• Drake wins tiebreaker and automatic qualifier.

This is the kind of crap you end up with when you have so many teams they can’t even try to play each other. (Of course, the problem with a divisional setup is: When do you squeeze in a conference championship game before the FCS playoffs start?)

 

[Tod]

FCS conferences are not allowed a championship game if they want to be in the playoffs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[smarsh]

 

[CDAGRIZ]

FCS conferences are not allowed a championship game if they want to be in the playoffs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It's pretty fucking rad, then, that we have 48 teams in the BSC.

 

[IntuitiveGriz]

I want msu for our first playoff game. Kicking their ass in back-to-back games would be the ultimate high. :thumb:

 

[braves84]

the bison in the fargodome.

 

[Spanky]

Intuitive....I agree, bring them on. I'm plenty weary of hearing about them and certainly enjoyed watching Cheney Community College kick the crap out of them in the Cheney high school stadium.

 

['68griz]

I want msu for our first playoff game. Kicking their ass in back-to-back games would be the ultimate high. :thumb:

You never play a team from your conference in the first game.