I had some hot takes brewing in me right after the game but it appears other posters here are full of them, either legit or not - so glad those are out.
I don't get it, I just don't get it. Look at this game on paper.
First downs: Griz 25 / UNC 12
Plays: Griz 95 / UNC 47
Yards: Griz 400 / UNC 241
Turnovers: Griz +1 (Griz forced 3 / UNC forced 2)
TOP: Griz 39:09 / UNC 20:51
3rd downs: Griz 43% / UNC 30%
But obviously the score;
Griz 25
UNC 28
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So what happened? Here's what I saw:
1. Poor redzone efficiency. RZ efficiency has been declining most of the season and today's might be the biggest single point for the loss. Take a look at the trips within the UNC redzone:
UNC 4 yard line - fieldgoal
UNC 14 yard line - lost fumble
UNC 1 yard line - touchdown (missed PAT)
UNC 5 yard line - fieldgoal
UNC 6 yard line - missed fieldgoal
UNC 2 yard line - touchdown
UNC 2 yard line - touchdown (failed 2 point)
So the Griz were withing the UNC 15 yard line 7 times and mustered 25 points - just about half of what they could've scored if each went for a TD.
Do we blame execution or playcalling? I think it goes both ways. There were dropped passes that were for-sure TDs in the end zone. There were overthrows too. There were also a few of the earlier series where the running game got the Griz to a "goal to go" situation and then the running back never touches the ball for the next 3 plays. If the Griz just get things done in the RZ then we're celebrating a win right now.
2. Special Teams. A blocked punt picked up for a touchdown. A missed PAT on a bad snap/hold. A missed chip shot field goal. A failed 2-point conversion (not sure if you hang that on ST). Add in that luckily a muffed punt didn't turn out to be a turnover. Special teams errors cost the Griz 4 points in a game that they lost by 3 - and spotted UNC 7. With all of the other issues that came up today an error-free ST game would have the Griz winning by 1 (or 2 as they'd not have gone for 2 after their last TD).
3. No vertical passing game. Chalich provides a great element of mobility and without his legs who knows if the Griz are even in this game today. The longest reception of the game came on a blown up JLM swing pass that he cut back and took for 46 yards. Otherwise a 27 yarder to Bingham and no other pass that was longer than 10 yards. When pressured the passing game was neutralized and turned into a mad scramble. The coaches adjusted to attack it in the 2nd half - but when needed (last drive of the game) it couldn't come through. Also Chad Chalich was sacked 6 times in the face of generally a 3 man rush. That's unacceptable.
4. Mental errors that veteran teams should not make. As mentioned there were dropped passes, there were overthrows, there were fumbles in the redzone, there were missed kicks, and there was the dropped snap on the punt. There were also some incredibly costly penalties. A penalty on an interception setting the offense back, when every yard and moment was needed. A cut-block and then follow up delay of game penalty that moved a drive back that wound up just scoring 3 points. An off-sides penalty that negated an interception (and the Griz drive after that series went 3 and out instead). Then the game-sealing personal foul (which Andrew Schmidt on twitter said was totally baited into - but it's always the retaliatory strike that gets flagged)
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I thought today we saw so many positive points that will now mostly go unnoticed.
- Run blocking, especially up the middle was pretty good.
- Nguyen and Counts ran pretty damn well. Both had good games. Stepping up in the place of Calhoun and carrying the ball well.
- The defense still gave up 1 big play but actually did much better than we'd seen in weeks prior. There was some good QB pressure and QB hits, and the coverage (with a few noticeable exceptions) did their job.
- The dimension given with a QB that can make plays with his feet was still good.
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0-4 in conference and 1-5 overall on the road is unacceptable. These types of performances as a whole are unacceptable. 4 loss (or worse) seasons are unacceptable. No one knows this more than the coaches, players, and administrators. A lot of focus and attention to execution, play calling, personnel, and game planning needs to continue and get better.
Would a 7-4 Griz team stand a chance to get in the playoffs? Possibly, it's a long shot, but now the Grizzlies destiny in the post season is well out of their hands. They'll need to win and get a lot of help. it's not impossible but we'll just have to see how things shake out.
This upcoming game we're honoring a group of seniors that's been through 3 different head coaches. They deserve our respect and our support. Let show up and send them off as winners.
Go Griz!