Playoffs..are we toast?

[IdaGriz01]

Poly is the one right now that's likely toast. I know many Griz fans would rather see the Stangs in then the Griz, and think Poly deserves to be in above the Montana schools, and maybe that's true, but, it's not reality and not what is going to happen. If UM wins out and MSU beats Idaho State, both the Cats and Griz are in. Only way Poly slips in is: Idaho State wins out, and the Cats beat the Griz, and the committee takes Poly over the Cats, but I don't think that's likely either. Right now, my bet is, Cats beat Idaho State, Griz of course beat the Cats, and the Big Sky gets EWU (Seed), NAU, MSU and UM.

I still see no way both UM and MSU get in...

I agree.

For this thread to even matter, the Griz must win at SUU, and the Brawl, giving them a 6-2 (conf), 8-4 record. Beyond that, I think EWU and NAU get bids. (Unless NAU loses both of their final games, at which point ... all bets are off.) [That's 2 for the BSC.]

If ISU loses to MSU (and beats WSU), they will also be 6-2, 8-4.
Assuming (pretty safe) that Cal Poly beats UC-D and San Diego, they too will 6-2, 8-4.
Finally, in this scenario, MSU is 6-2, 8-4.

So what happens now?

First, I do not see the BSC getting five bids.
Starting with the two teams that have been ranked all year (UM and MSU), the first point is UM > MSU. I think that (almost) guarantees the Griz a bid. [That's three.]

So then it comes down to between CP and ISU. They will have had one week between them in the rankings. (Yes, I know the rankings "don't matter" -- but they do, because they reflect how football people generally view your program.)

I think it's a pretty safe assumption that people will now remember that CP beat both Montana teams, and had one week where they were ranked. Meanwhile, ISU will have never been ranked and the progression (in perception, and probably GPI numbers) will be UM > MSU > ISU ... so they will suck hind tit. That is, CP will get the bid. [That's 4, and, yes, I do think the BSC could get that many again.]

There's another scenario -- ISU beats MSU. That takes the kitties out of the equation and probably gives ISU a bid. [Three, along with NAU and EWU.]

Then it becomes a crap shoot between the Griz and CP for a fourth spot. Despite the fact that CP beat the Griz head-to-head, I strongly feel the Griz will get the preference. Why? First, because the Griz have been ranked all year long and CP had that momentary appearance. (Whether we consider that "fair" or not, it's likely to matter.) Also, overall, the Griz lost to much better teams (particularly FBS Wyoming vs NMSU, and NDSU vs SDSU).

Note that the "safer" scenario is for the kitties to win over ISU. But either way, the Griz have to take care of business next weekend.

 

[qwerty15ster]

Thanks Ida, really like your stuff. Keep it up. I also hope you're right. I want the Griz in the playoffs! Come on boys, win out!!!!

and to the Cats... I guess.... maybe... I kinda.... sorta.... want.... you... to.... um.... win this weekend............ OH MY GAWD THAT WAS HARD TO SAY!

 

[George Ferguson]

Grizindabox, I have NEVER EVER implied or said UM would be getting in at 7-5. I said, EWU and NAU are locks, and will both likely finish 7-1 in the league. Then I said, IF MSU beats Idaho State, which I believe they will, and will handily, and the Griz beat MSU, I believe UM and MSU are both IN. You are either mis-reading what I wrote or trying to imply something I didn't actually say. EVERYONE on the planet KNOWS the Griz have to win out to get in. I think that's WHY, it's been mentioned about 4000 times in this thread, the term 8-4 when talking about the Griz. But yes, I believe the Cats can lose to UM and still get in, provided they beat Idaho State, which again, I believe they will.

Let me ask any of you that are arguing against an 8-4 Montana team getting in, to be honest, is the reason you DON'T want the Griz to get in is because you're nervous that a playoff berth will delay a coaching change? Given what has been argued in this thread, I think it's a valid question.

 

[EverettGriz]

Thanks Ida, really like your stuff. Keep it up. I also hope you're right. I want the Griz in the playoffs! Come on boys, win out!!!!

and to the Cats... I guess.... maybe... I kinda.... sorta.... want.... you... to.... um.... win this weekend............ OH MY GAWD THAT WAS HARD TO SAY!

I laughed.

 

[grizindabox]

Hav, and all I said is that I don't believe both UM/MSU will get in....you wanted to argue that point. UM must win both, which we agree. What we disagree on is the MSU/Poly scenario. I believe Poly gets in if they win out and MSU loses a game, you think otherwise. Not so hard to figure out.

 

[George Ferguson]

Ok box, end of argument then. IN all honestly, I don't care at all if Poly gets in whether they deserve it or not.Or MSU for that matter. I care about the Griz getting in, that's all.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Ok box, end of argument then. IN all honestly, I don't care at all if Poly gets in whether they deserve it or not. Or MSU for that matter. I care about the Griz getting in, that's all.

I'm with you on the Griz at the top of my "care" list.

But I do sympathize a bit with the 'Stangs. And I got to thinkin' about why they don't get any respect ... and had an odd thought. It's based on comments I've heard from TV "experts" and commentators, and read here and there. At the top level, that includes comments about the Ga Tech program. It almost seems like "modern" football "purists" almost resent the use of the triple option. Like they consider it just a "gimmick" that no-talent teams use to "level the playing field" when they play "real" football teams. (It's okay for the service teams, where they don't have ways to recruit academically under-qualified athletes.) I know that makes no sense -- you do what you have to to win -- but that's the feeling I sometimes get.

 

[AZGrizFan]

Sounds like how Oregon's offense is viewed by the purists.

 

[George Ferguson]

idagriz, i can't argue with that thought process at all.

 

[AZGrizFan]

idagriz, i can't argue with that thought process at all.

Where's rob? He'll argue the FUCK outta that logic. :lol: :roll:

 

[CDAGRIZ]

idagriz, i can't argue with that thought process at all.

Where's rob? He'll argue the FUCK outta that logic. :lol: :roll:

Haha! Ineffectively too.

 

[ordigger]

EWU, NAU and CP are already in if they win out.
ISU is on bubble even if they win out, because of two wins against lower level teams.
UM is in if they win out, but 1 loss they are out.
MSU can also only get in if they win out.

Its that simple.

 

[George Ferguson]

Digger, just curious what you're basing Poly on.? They're not ranked in the Coaches Poll, not in the Top 5 among Big Sky team's in the power index or sagarin and not ranked in the TSN Poll. I'm actually not trying to argue here, but honestly, it's already obvious that their wins over the Cats and Griz are not carrying a whole lot of weight right now.

 

[ordigger]

Digger, just curious what you're basing Poly on.? They're not ranked in the Coaches Poll, not in the Top 5 among Big Sky team's in the power index or sagarin and not ranked in the TSN Poll. I'm actually not trying to argue here, but honestly, it's already obvious that their wins over the Cats and Griz are not carrying a whole lot of weight right now.

Just my opinion.

Sagarin and the power index will change in the next two weeks with the UM, MSU and ISU matchups. However, I don't believe the committee pays to much attention to the polls historically, but look more towards SOS, wins against top teams, and how teams do down the stretch. CP has a 2 pt loss to ISU, who still could get in, and if they did that helps CP - and only a 3 pt loss to NAU, both on the road. If ISU loses this week, that would hurt them a lot. I also believe the committee will put more stock in their wins against two top 10 teams in the Big Sky (I think at the time they beat them) than the polls. If you look at some projections they are already currently in (ie on sportsnetwork). And don't forget they also have a playoff tradition. I wonder if being a California school would help them also from a national perspective? Just a thought.

 

[Robsnotes4u]

idagriz, i can't argue with that thought process at all.

Where's rob? He'll argue the f*** outta that logic. :lol: :roll:

I'm worried that the Griz are going to make the playoffs, causing Robsnotes4u to have an aneurism as his head explodes trying to figure out how an 8-4 Griz team made the playoffs despite all his statistical analysis.

Remember, it's all just a big robsnotes4u psychology experiment.

has robsnotes4u PM'ed you yet? Because he insists an 8-4 Griz team won't be in.

Man crush? Stalker? Or is it just that easy to get in and play with a simple mind?

 

[clawman]

Poly is the one right now that's likely toast. I know many Griz fans would rather see the Stangs in then the Griz, and think Poly deserves to be in above the Montana schools, and maybe that's true, but, it's not reality and not what is going to happen. If UM wins out and MSU beats Idaho State, both the Cats and Griz are in. Only way Poly slips in is: Idaho State wins out, and the Cats beat the Griz, and the committee takes Poly over the Cats, but I don't think that's likely either. Right now, my bet is, Cats beat Idaho State, Griz of course beat the Cats, and the Big Sky gets EWU (Seed), NAU, MSU and UM.

I still see no way both UM and MSU get in...

I agree.

For this thread to even matter, the Griz must win at SUU, and the Brawl, giving them a 6-2 (conf), 8-4 record. Beyond that, I think EWU and NAU get bids. (Unless NAU loses both of their final games, at which point ... all bets are off.) [That's 2 for the BSC.]

If ISU loses to MSU (and beats WSU), they will also be 6-2, 8-4.
Assuming (pretty safe) that Cal Poly beats UC-D and San Diego, they too will 6-2, 8-4.
Finally, in this scenario, MSU is 6-2, 8-4.

So what happens now?

First, I do not see the BSC getting five bids.
Starting with the two teams that have been ranked all year (UM and MSU), the first point is UM > MSU. I think that (almost) guarantees the Griz a bid. [That's three.]

So then it comes down to between CP and ISU. They will have had one week between them in the rankings. (Yes, I know the rankings "don't matter" -- but they do, because they reflect how football people generally view your program.)

I think it's a pretty safe assumption that people will now remember that CP beat both Montana teams, and had one week where they were ranked. Meanwhile, ISU will have never been ranked and the progression (in perception, and probably GPI numbers) will be UM > MSU > ISU ... so they will suck hind tit. That is, CP will get the bid. [That's 4, and, yes, I do think the BSC could get that many again.]

There's another scenario -- ISU beats MSU. That takes the kitties out of the equation and probably gives ISU a bid. [Three, along with NAU and EWU.]

Then it becomes a crap shoot between the Griz and CP for a fourth spot. Despite the fact that CP beat the Griz head-to-head, I strongly feel the Griz will get the preference. Why? First, because the Griz have been ranked all year long and CP had that momentary appearance. (Whether we consider that "fair" or not, it's likely to matter.) Also, overall, the Griz lost to much better teams (particularly FBS Wyoming vs NMSU, and NDSU vs SDSU).

Note that the "safer" scenario is for the kitties to win over ISU. But either way, the Griz have to take care of business next weekend.

Two of ISU's wins are against DII teams thus do not count in the eyes of selection committee. They MUST win out to be considered and then it is not certain but they do have good wins against MSU and Poly and a close loss to EWU.

 

[krammer]

does playing a fbs school tight (Wyoming) and number 1 (at the time) ranked ndsu tight along with number 5 at the time eastern wa. close , give us an inside track to a playoff position over other teams? just asking,,,it seems it would factor in to some degree...

 

[grizindabox]

Good Toast

Bad Toast

Sad Toast

Happy Toast (because bacon makes everyone smile)

 

[grizindabox]

does playing a fbs school tight (Wyoming) and number 1 (at the time) ranked ndsu tight along with number 5 at the time eastern wa. close , give us an inside track to a playoff position over other teams? just asking,,,it seems it would factor in to some degree...

I doubt any loss could be considered much of an advantage

 

[Robsnotes4u]

does playing a fbs school tight (Wyoming) and number 1 (at the time) ranked ndsu tight along with number 5 at the time eastern wa. close , give us an inside track to a playoff position over other teams? just asking,,,it seems it would factor in to some degree...

How do those losses affect you? Simply put Moral Victories do not help.
1. Less of a chance to get to 8 D1 wins, see my post today on 8 wins vs 7 wins.
2. Comparing schedules. A loss to Cal Poly with ISU beating Cal Poly
3. End of the season loss trends. See Youngstown State, three consecutive losses to end the season, and 8 D1 wins.
4. Can help or hurt your SOS. A lot of SOS, NCAA for example, in their SRS does not use MOV so playing close means absolutely nothing there either.

With that being written, if all other things are equal, and the only card you have left is a loss to someone then it might be the difference. Most people with any common sense would say, it is already figured in the SOS, so why give it to them again?