Robsnotes4u said:
I posted this in another thread, but it fits here also. A reminder you are comparing against everyone, but just showing how everyone compares in the BSC.
With only 13 At Large Bids.
Just comparing teams in BSC, then you have to compare your resume with others at 8-4 if the Griz win out.
Griz 5 D1 wins now, could end at 7
Griz have not beat anyone with a winning record in D1, could get one with a win against MSU
Lost to EWU and CP in the conference.
CP 6 D1 wins now, could end at 8
CP has wins over two D1 teams with winning r ecords, and could end up with 3 or 4
CP has head to head win.
ISU has 5 D1 wins, could end with 7
ISU has wins over 1 D1 with a winning record
ISU defeated Cal Poly who beat UM
On a 5 game win streak could end at 7
EWU has 8 D1 wins, could end with 9
EWU consistently in the top 5 of polls (even though the only poll that matters is the weekly by the committee)
EWU has wins over 4 D1 teams with winning records
EWU has a win over UM and MSU
MSU has 6 D1 wins could end with 8
MSU has wins over 1 D1 team with a winning record
still has head to head with Montana
NAU has 6 D! wins could end with 8
NAU has wins over 2 D1 teams with a winning record
NAU has wins over EWU and CP
on a 4 game win streak could end at 6
To me just looking in the BSC, not comparing resumes to all the other teams that could be in that 8-4 area.
Good post, and I agree even if the Griz win out and everything else falls into place we would not make it unless they take 5, which I think has happened once before but not sure if it would this year.
Should add losses though:
Montana
(NDSU, EWU, WYO, CP) - a FBS school, two top 5 FCS schools
Worse loss - Cal Poly, their loss to ISU yesterday hurt the Griz
CP
(NMSU, SDSU, NAU & ISU)
Worse loss - probably ISU yesterday
ISU
(Utah, USU, EWU)
Worse Loss - EWU, if they had won that the entire Big Sky picture would be radically different. However its their two wins against Simon Frasier & Chadron State that hurt them. One more loss and they are done.
EWU
(Washington, NAU)
Worse Loss - Has to be NAU since its their only conference loss
MSU
(Arkansas State, EWU, CP)
Worse Loss - For now CP
NAU
(San Diego State, USD, UNC)
Worse Loss: One would have to think that losses to both South Dakota and Northern Colorado dont look good.
MY guesses:
IN (they should win out):
EWU, CP, NAU
For MSU win out and they are in with wins over Griz and ISU, win over ISU loss to Griz probably staying home.
For UM, must win out and hope that even if ISU does, our tradition gets us a 4th BSC bid
For ISU, win out and hope MSU beat Griz, they would be in. A win over MSU, and a Griz win over MSU would hurt their chances.
I believe if GRIZ win out, they become the 4th team from the Big Sky. In the end, ISU's two wins against Simon Frasier & Chadron State will look worse to the playoff committee than Griz losses to NDSU, CP and EWU all of which will be teams in the playoffs.