The “stranger things have happened” is the but what. I agree with ALL of your points I just know how in love the pollsters are with the Dakota state teamsBut what? Sagarin has already hammered SDSU to 5th.
Last year they barely lost in Fargo, and they fell to #3 behind undefeated MSU. They're not putting SDSU at #2 after they lost by 31 at home. The general consensus I've seen from FCS media people on twitter is that they'll fall anywhere from 4th to 6th.
Stranger things have happened, but leaving them at #2 invalidates the voters as know-nothings.