No one knows where people are getting infected

[ranco]

Why is the pandemic about over in those states?

I don't know because I have no idea what data the modeling is based on. My guess is that it has to due with herd immunity. The model appears to be based on the estimated number of cases, which as others have pointed out, is believed to be about 7 times more than the actual number of reported cases.

Applying that formula to North Dakota, would mean about 80% of the population has already been infected. (reported cases 87,000 * 7/ 762,000)

Perhaps someone with some expertise on the modelling could weigh in.

 

[PlayerRep]

Why is the pandemic about over in those states?

Maybe because almost everyone has already had the covid there.

 

[Cuervohola]

With congress making sure their buddies in pharma are immune from damage lawsuits if people have adverse side effects or die from the vaccine, I think it's only proper that members of congress get the vaccine first on video and we all wait a few months.

If they survive, the vaccine is safe.

If they don't, the country is safe.

 

[PlayerRep]

Some stats from today's Wall St Journal editorial. Note tbe 1.5% figure.

"The Restaurant Lockdown Massacre

New shutdown orders punish minorities and low-income workers."

"New York’s Andrew Cuomo on Friday joined the stampede of Democratic governors shutting down restaurants despite scant evidence that they are driving a surge in Covid cases. Their shutdowns are hitting minorities the hardest and increasing economic inequality.

Democratic governors in Michigan, Illinois, Oregon and Washington in recent weeks have closed indoor dining. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has banned outdoor patios in most areas too. Mr. Cuomo said Friday that he’s shutting down indoor dining in New York City as of Monday.

According to state contact tracing data, restaurants and bars account for 1.4% of the virus spread in the state while household gatherings make up nearly 74%. That’s not surprising. In New York City, restaurants were limited to 25% capacity. Who limits capacity in their living rooms during football watch parties or Thanksgiving?

The National Restaurant Association this week said 110,000 restaurants have permanently shuttered in 2020, notwithstanding forgivable government loans.

Restaurants and other small businesses have spent heavily to comply with government Covid regulations, including buying personal protective equipment for staff and improved ventilation systems. But now they are being punished because, well, government can’t control the virus and Democratic leaders feel they must appear to be doing something.

A Federal Reserve report this fall showed that net worth (assets minus liabilities) between 2016 and 2019 increased significantly more among blacks (32.1%) and Hispanics (63.6%) compared to whites (4%). One reason was huge growth in business equity among blacks (138%) and Hispanics (63%)."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-restaurant-lockdown-massacre-11607730189?mod=mhp

 

[argh!]

Some stats from today's Wall St Journal editorial. Note tbe 1.5% figure.

"The Restaurant Lockdown Massacre

New shutdown orders punish minorities and low-income workers."

"New York’s Andrew Cuomo on Friday joined the stampede of Democratic governors shutting down restaurants despite scant evidence that they are driving a surge in Covid cases. Their shutdowns are hitting minorities the hardest and increasing economic inequality.

Democratic governors in Michigan, Illinois, Oregon and Washington in recent weeks have closed indoor dining. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has banned outdoor patios in most areas too. Mr. Cuomo said Friday that he’s shutting down indoor dining in New York City as of Monday.

According to state contact tracing data, restaurants and bars account for 1.4% of the virus spread in the state while household gatherings make up nearly 74%. That’s not surprising. In New York City, restaurants were limited to 25% capacity. Who limits capacity in their living rooms during football watch parties or Thanksgiving?

The National Restaurant Association this week said 110,000 restaurants have permanently shuttered in 2020, notwithstanding forgivable government loans.

Restaurants and other small businesses have spent heavily to comply with government Covid regulations, including buying personal protective equipment for staff and improved ventilation systems. But now they are being punished because, well, government can’t control the virus and Democratic leaders feel they must appear to be doing something.

A Federal Reserve report this fall showed that net worth (assets minus liabilities) between 2016 and 2019 increased significantly more among blacks (32.1%) and Hispanics (63.6%) compared to whites (4%). One reason was huge growth in business equity among blacks (138%) and Hispanics (63%)."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-restaurant-lockdown-massacre-11607730189?mod=mhp

"According to state contact tracing data," is the line in this otherwise convincing article that throws a spanner (wrench) in the works for me. the author of this article has an angle he's pursuing that is political, so he's not going to put in the necessary qualifiers to make his article balanced, and not bias (i.e. he didn't mention that in general contact tracing hasn't been successful). so anyway, i question his data set. contact tracing hasn't worked in the u.s., as far as i have read so far from articles focusing on it's feasibility. here's a couple articles i found just randomly, not sure about the relative quality of the journalism, but there seem to be quite a few. not saying the article you posted is wrong, just that i'm not sure the data it relies on is accurate:

https://www.poz.com/article/covid-menu-failed-contact-tracing-leaves-diners-dark

https://mynorthwest.com/2355898/contact-tracing-washington-covid-2/

 

[PlayerRep]

Here's where tracing data came from. Be sure to open both links. It's New York's tracing data. The article says:

"according to contact tracing data released on Friday by Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

The data made public by New York officials offers one of the more specific glimpses into how COVID-19 is transmitted in the state."

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/ny-state-of-politics/2020/12/11/what-new-york-s-contact-tracing-data-show

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/ny-state-of-politics/2020/12/11/what-new-york-s-contact-tracing-data-show

 

[argh!]

Here's where tracing data came from. Be sure to open both links. It's New York's tracing data. The article says:

"according to contact tracing data released on Friday by Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

The data made public by New York officials offers one of the more specific glimpses into how COVID-19 is transmitted in the state."

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/ny-state-of-politics/2020/12/11/what-new-york-s-contact-tracing-data-show

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/ny-state-of-politics/2020/12/11/what-new-york-s-contact-tracing-data-show

i looked that over, but i'm a skeptic about stuff like this, and am not convinced that the study's authors were using a convincing set of data, i.e. one that reflected reality, not the actions of the group who agreed to the tracing study, people who possibly could skew the data because they vary in personality from the majority.

just guessing.

 

[PlayerRep]

Here's where tracing data came from. Be sure to open both links. It's New York's tracing data. The article says:

"according to contact tracing data released on Friday by Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

The data made public by New York officials offers one of the more specific glimpses into how COVID-19 is transmitted in the state."

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/ny-state-of-politics/2020/12/11/what-new-york-s-contact-tracing-data-show

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/ny-state-of-politics/2020/12/11/what-new-york-s-contact-tracing-data-show

i looked that over, but i'm a skeptic about stuff like this, and am not convinced that the study's authors were using a convincing set of data, i.e. one that reflected reality, not the actions of the group who agreed to the tracing study, people who possibly could skew the data because they vary in personality from the majority.

just guessing.

Looks like the best available in NY. Article also said: "State officials were confident enough in the data to make changes to restrictions put in place for gyms and personal care businesses like barbers and nail salons during the pandemic in order to limit the spread. [For those businesses, restrictions were reduced.]

Gyms and salons both will be allowed to operate in orange zones where hospitalizations have increased with reduced capacity.

Both kinds of gathering places have represented less than a full percentage point of cases.

Gym owners already on Friday were breathing a sigh of relief as the industry has feared the impact of another shutdown amid the second surge of COVID cases this year."

 

[SoldierGriz]

i looked that over, but i'm a skeptic about stuff like this, and am not convinced that the study's authors were using a convincing set of data, i.e. one that reflected reality, not the actions of the group who agreed to the tracing study, people who possibly could skew the data because they vary in personality from the majority.

just guessing.

Looks like the best available in NY. Article also said: "State officials were confident enough in the data to make changes to restrictions put in place for gyms and personal care businesses like barbers and nail salons during the pandemic in order to limit the spread. [For those businesses, restrictions were reduced.]

Gyms and salons both will be allowed to operate in orange zones where hospitalizations have increased with reduced capacity.

Both kinds of gathering places have represented less than a full percentage point of cases.

Gym owners already on Friday were breathing a sigh of relief as the industry has feared the impact of another shutdown amid the second surge of COVID cases this year."

My guess is the majority of people who go to gyms are not going to die from this virus...

Sometimes, those who make these policies are just out to lunch.

 

[grizindabox]

Looks like the best available in NY. Article also said: "State officials were confident enough in the data to make changes to restrictions put in place for gyms and personal care businesses like barbers and nail salons during the pandemic in order to limit the spread. [For those businesses, restrictions were reduced.]

Gyms and salons both will be allowed to operate in orange zones where hospitalizations have increased with reduced capacity.

Both kinds of gathering places have represented less than a full percentage point of cases.

Gym owners already on Friday were breathing a sigh of relief as the industry has feared the impact of another shutdown amid the second surge of COVID cases this year."

My guess is the majority of people who go to gyms are not going to die from this virus...

Sometimes, those who make these policies are just out to lunch.

So you think this is about people that use gyms dying?

 

[SoldierGriz]

My guess is the majority of people who go to gyms are not going to die from this virus...

Sometimes, those who make these policies are just out to lunch.

So you think this is about people that use gyms dying?

Yep. And, if you are a person with a co-morbidity you should stay away from the person going to the gym. It's quite simple really.

Protecting vulnerable from dying should be the policy...NOT protecting people from getting sick.

 

[PlayerRep]

The FDA head says 2.9 millions vaccine doses going out now. First shots probably tomorrow. 20 million by end of month. 100 million in the next several months (2-3 is my impression). People with allergies to any of the ingredients in the vaccines should not take them, yet. More research is being done. Places administering shots are supposed to be able to respond immediately to any allergic reaction. The ingredients are on website and multiple other places. Not for children under 16 yet, but more research being done. Perhaps special rules for kids 16 and 17.

Bill Gates:

Was surprised by the magnitude of this virus, and by the huge amount of US and world economic damage. However, in 2015 report, his worst case scenario had more deaths.

Thought US would have done better fighting off the virus.

Expects normality in 12-18 months. Large gatherings may be restricted longer. One problem will be protecting/vaccinating other countries, so there isn't reintroduction when people start traveling and getting out and about.

Expects continuing big problems and deaths for up to 6 months.

Likes all 3 vaccines. Says even Astra Zeneca showed huge prevention of serious covid illness.

Will get shot as soon as it's turn. Will likely publicize it.

Has just put up another $250 million, in addition to over $1 billion earlier.

Didn't and hasn't criticized US or other leadership.

 

[Cuervohola]

Why do you put any faith in what Bill Gates thinks? He's as much a "Science" guy as Bill Nye the Mechanical Engineer. If you want to get the vaccine, go for it, but you can't sue if you are afflicted with Guillain Barre or Bells Palsy etc. because congress made sure their buddies in pharma are immune from lawsuits.

 

[grizindabox]

So you think this is about people that use gyms dying?

Yep. And, if you are a person with a co-morbidity you should stay away from the person going to the gym. It's quite simple really.

Protecting vulnerable from dying should be the policy...NOT protecting people from getting sick.

It is actually a step in controlling spread to help support the healthcare system, but whatever.

 

[PlayerRep]

Why do you put any faith in what Bill Gates thinks? He's as much a "Science" guy as Bill Nye the Mechanical Engineer. If you want to get the vaccine, go for it, but you can't sue if you are afflicted with Guillain Barre or Bells Palsy etc. because congress made sure their buddies in pharma are immune from lawsuits.


[s://starecat.com/content/wp-content/uploads/bill-gates-vaccine-time-to-install-your-update-evil-street-art.jpg[/img]

Because Gates is and has been a leading expert in the world on this subject for years. He's got the time. Access to all of the top top scientists. Has lots of money. Has been donating and investing for years. I don't hang on all of his words. I just posted what he said. Feel free to take or leave it, or take it with a grain of salt. It was meaningful for me.

 

[PlayerRep]

Why do you put any faith in what Bill Gates thinks? He's as much a "Science" guy as Bill Nye the Mechanical Engineer. If you want to get the vaccine, go for it, but you can't sue if you are afflicted with Guillain Barre or Bells Palsy etc. because congress made sure their buddies in pharma are immune from lawsuits.

Where did Congress say that drug companies can't be sued for that

 

[PlayerRep]

"More than a quarter of deaths above normal have been from other causes, including diabetes, Alzheimer’s disease, high blood pressure and pneumonia, according to a New York Times analysis of estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Deaths attributed to other causes above normal

Diabetes
15% above normal
Alzheimer’s disease and dementia
12%
High blood pressure
11%
Pneumonia and flu
11%
Coronary heart disease
6%
Stroke
5%
Sepsis
4%
Kidney failure
1%"

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/13/us/deaths-covid-other-causes.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

[Cuervohola]

Why do you put any faith in what Bill Gates thinks? He's as much a "Science" guy as Bill Nye the Mechanical Engineer. If you want to get the vaccine, go for it, but you can't sue if you are afflicted with Guillain Barre or Bells Palsy etc. because congress made sure their buddies in pharma are immune from lawsuits.

Where did Congress say that drug companies can't be sued for that

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=immunity+for+drug+companies+against+vaccine+lawsuits&ia=web

 

[PlayerRep]

Where did Congress say that drug companies can't be sued for that

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=immunity+for+drug+companies+against+vaccine+lawsuits&ia=web

Thx. Wasn't aware of that. I see that the UK also did that. I see that an older US law was amended.

 

[Cuervohola]

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=immunity+for+drug+companies+against+vaccine+lawsuits&ia=web

Thx. Wasn't aware of that. I see that the UK also did that. I see that an older US law was amended.

Yeah, and the fun part as far as Pfizer and Moderna is the mRNA technology has never been tried on humans. If they had a compensation program sliding scale where mild side effects were $1000 or so and major effects like Bells Palsy were $10,000,000, then it would be worth considering. There is no side effect studies because there is no long term because it's new, and their efficacy percentage is cherry picked. The pharma executives and the members of congress aren't getting it, I guarantee that.