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No one knows where people are getting infected
- Thread starter PlayerRep
- Start date
Should the US have sped up the process to develop the vaccines? Interesting opinion piece in Wall St. Journal.
"The design for Moderna’s vaccine was completed on Jan. 13, two days after the Chinese released the genetic makeup of the new virus, before even the Wuhan lockdown.
Pfizer and its partner BioNTech whittled 20 slightly different designs down to two between January and July. They might have done so sooner if not anticipating the drawn-out, three-phase clinical trials that still lay ahead.
Public talk from the start focused on the risk to public confidence of any shortcuts, any deviation from standard development protocols. The media took up the chant. Federal agencies and politicians had a natural incentive to minimize any blowback on themselves from departing from accepted models of drug development. But it’s not obvious this was optimal under conditions of the pandemic."
Classic double-blind trials with a placebo arm are the gold standard. In the trade-off between speed and safety, silver and bronze approaches were always possible to get a vaccine into the market faster albeit with somewhat higher risk.
Our near-standard approach ended up being successful beyond early hopes, no question. But a clinical lookback won’t automatically conclude it was the best approach under the circumstances. Consider the overarching political problem. At the current moment, the U.S. public is facing the biggest surge yet even as many things are converging that should be making the virus easier to live with: faster testing, better treatments, vaccines, the spread of natural immunity through infection. More integrated political thinking might have seen a value in sacrificing some of our testing protocols so Americans could see vaccinations taking place on TV sooner, giving them a sense that voluntary social-distancing was being rewarded with a fast-approaching permanent fix."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/vaccines-vs-lockdowns-11608074044?mod=hp_opin_pos_1
"The design for Moderna’s vaccine was completed on Jan. 13, two days after the Chinese released the genetic makeup of the new virus, before even the Wuhan lockdown.
Pfizer and its partner BioNTech whittled 20 slightly different designs down to two between January and July. They might have done so sooner if not anticipating the drawn-out, three-phase clinical trials that still lay ahead.
Public talk from the start focused on the risk to public confidence of any shortcuts, any deviation from standard development protocols. The media took up the chant. Federal agencies and politicians had a natural incentive to minimize any blowback on themselves from departing from accepted models of drug development. But it’s not obvious this was optimal under conditions of the pandemic."
Classic double-blind trials with a placebo arm are the gold standard. In the trade-off between speed and safety, silver and bronze approaches were always possible to get a vaccine into the market faster albeit with somewhat higher risk.
Our near-standard approach ended up being successful beyond early hopes, no question. But a clinical lookback won’t automatically conclude it was the best approach under the circumstances. Consider the overarching political problem. At the current moment, the U.S. public is facing the biggest surge yet even as many things are converging that should be making the virus easier to live with: faster testing, better treatments, vaccines, the spread of natural immunity through infection. More integrated political thinking might have seen a value in sacrificing some of our testing protocols so Americans could see vaccinations taking place on TV sooner, giving them a sense that voluntary social-distancing was being rewarded with a fast-approaching permanent fix."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/vaccines-vs-lockdowns-11608074044?mod=hp_opin_pos_1
MontanaJack2006
Well-known member
So, circling back, did anyone find out where people are getting infected?
MontanaJack2006 said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAlNrtcPCLw
ilovethecats
Well-known member
Come on guys, we've been over this ad nauseum. I can tell you sure the hell where people are NOT getting infected. They're NOT getting infected in the big box stores packed elbow to elbow every hour of every day. No chance. There's no CHANCE they're getting infected on huge college campuses with in-person learning. No way that could happen. And don't even try to pretend this little virus could spread in the packed dorms. Please, at least PRETEND to understand science. You know where else people aren't getting infected? I'll tell you. They are NOT getting infected in packed car dealerships and hundreds of realtors that are selling homes and cars by the thousands and mingling with hundreds of people a week. Zero chance.CDAGRIZ said:
You know what else? I can assure you that all of these college kids and young adults are definitely NOT having house parties. And those that dare risk having more than 3 people over, I can almost assure you they are masked up and social distanced the entire time. It's a shame we don't have any places these kids could go if they want to have some drinks, but at the same time someone was there to keep them accountable. You know, requiring masks when wandering around and not allowing places to be packed. If only there was a place like that.
Speaking of which; you know where else there is no chance these clowns are getting infected? Bars and restaurants. But don't get too excited. They're only not getting infected in bars and restaurants in the 14 hours between 8am and 10pm. After that, it is a complete cluster-fuck of nasty virus in every watering hole and diner you can imagine. I cannot begin to tell you just how dangerous those places are from 10:01 and midnight. Personally I think it'd be safer to just shut down all those places for good. That is IF we really care about our neighbors and the fact that humanity relies on it. But whatever you do, PLEASE don't even consider screwing over anyone else besides the service industry! It's very obvious and based on scientific evidence that packed box stores, dorms and college campuses do nothing to spread this virus.
I hope I was able to clear it up for some of you dummies..... :msugrad:
ilovethecats said:
Thanks for clearing that up. In CA, the virus spreads at every eating establishment and bar in the state, even outdoors, except for when the Gavinor eats at Thomas Keller's place. It apparently doesn't spread in the public schools, Target, Costco, or mega churches, but you're a grandma killer if you eat a hot wing on a patio.
In all honesty, there's a growing number of restaurants in down here that are defying the order and operating close to normally. They range from hole in the wall taco places to Mastro's Ocean Club. One guy told me his choices are (a) go out of business or (b) try to operate until he gets shut down. And now the Orange County Sheriff said he's not enforcing the shutdown order. Barbershops are still operating like speakeasies, though.
To those of you about to get the shots, watch whomever is giving the shot and make sure he/she aspirates the syringe before injecting. I've seen on TV the locals just popping it in and injecting. I've also seen the results of IM medication injected intraveously. Drops you like a rock, then the real work begins.
ilovethecats said:
Hey, show us your evidence. Here's the recent NY tracing data. 2.02% higher ed student, 1.43% restaurants/bars, retail .61%, real estate .10%. Where's the big box store stuff, other than part of the retail. It's households. And yes, social gatherings which includes young and old.
In my view, people like you are a big part of the problem. You just make up stuff and pull things out of thin air.
"The state looked at contract tracing data for 46,000 cases of the coronavirus. Here are the top 30 exposure sources.
Chart
Share of Exposure Source
Household/Social Gatherings 73.84%
Healthcare Delivery 7.81%
Higher Education Student 2.02%
Education Employee 1.50%
Restaurants & Bars 1.43%
Travel/Vacation 1.06%
Sports 1.04%
Public Sector (Police/Fire/EMS/Military) 1%
Transit Public/Private 0.96%
Manufacturing 0.84%
Religious Activites 0.69%
Construction 0.66%
Retail 0.61%
Professional Services 0.55%
Elementary School Student 0.49%
Chart
Share of Exposure Source
Auto Dealers & Car Rentals 0.16%
Hair & Personal Care 0.14%
Wholesale Trade 0.14%
Building & Dwelling Services 0.13%
Real Estate 0.10%
Arts & Entertainment 0.08%
Gyms 0.06%
Agri, Hunting, Forestry 0.06%
Childcare 0.05%
Power/Utilities 0.05%
Accomodations 0.02%
Media Production 0.02%
High School Student 0.46%
Prisions/Correctional 0.43%
Middle School Student 0.19%"
https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/ny-state-of-politics/2020/12/11/what-new-york-s-contact-tracing-data-show
MontanaJack2006 said:
Hawaii puts out a cluster report once a week. Since our cases here are low, they are actually able to contact trace down to where the exposure was in most cases. US is such a mess contact tracing is impossible. I know a principal in Billings who says Montana contact tracing is a total joke it is so overwhelmed. He has to play tracer in the school system.
In Hawaii, clusters are from family social gatherings. Also clusters in Church, Weddings, Funerals, Bars, Restaurants and Gyms have occured. A few clusters in a business setting with workers eating together in a break room is a significant source as well. All those places where there is little to no mask wearing.
ilovethecats
Well-known member
PlayerRep said:
Whoa whoa whoa!
Are you trying to say that this virus is spreading MORE in household gatherings and schools and colleges than bars and restaurants?! :shock:
I simply am shocked. SHOCKED! This goes against everything I believe. I am most certainly a huge part of the problem then! I just can’t fathom this information to be true.
MontanaJack2006
Well-known member
So, coming full circle, are there places where people might not be getting infected?