Okay, we have most of the big numbers in. We don't have a few minor amounts in some categories, but we can probably make some observations based on what we have.
Caveat: We have used numbers from other institutions, trying to throw out the ones that were obviously far above us, like Michigan, for determining averages. The bottom line numbers don't include some line items, like increased maintenance, for which I had no way of making calculations, so expense increases would be slightly higher than what we've come up with, but it also doesn't include some income items that may be higher, like baseball TV revenues for a conference team going to the national championship. These items are also hard to gauge. I'm going to call them a wash. They're not major amounts in the grand scheme of things anyway.
These amounts do not take inflation into consideration, for the most part. By the time UM could realistically make the jump, in 2011 (2012?), almost all amounts would almost certainly be increased, most notably anything related to travel.
Also, you don't have to tell me that these are wild-assed guesses. I know.
Best Case Scenario: UM has to come up with
$621,750 immediately, but has yearly bottom-line
increases of
$881,055. This scenario depends on making minimal, if any, improvements to facilities, with stadiums remaining at full capacity, and Idaho-like expenses otherwise. In other words, Idaho levels of commitment, with current Montana attendance.
Worst Case Scenario: UM has to come up with
$694,688 immediately, and has yearly bottom-line
losses of
$10,269,771. This is the "Boise State" expenditure model, with improved facilities all around, but also with only a small rise in attendance, due to losses. If the attendance holds for all sports, reduce the yearly losses by just over
$1,000,000; if UM can make this jump without any capital improvements, reduce the expenditures by
$3,447,500.
Conclusion: Expecting "Boise State"-level performance and attendance using an Idaho expense model probably doesn't make sense. For UM to keep up with BSU (the biggest "I-AA to I-A" move-up success story, especially in the West, and probably a conference rival), the university would need to bump the annual spending up to near-BSU levels:
$5.8M to begin with, then
$9.2M-$10M shortly thereafter to continue to add the facilities that would help attract the higher-level of athlete needed on an ongoing basis.
Whether the Board of Regents would go for spending of this magnitude is anyone's guess, but based on their tight-fisted ways with the current stadium expansion, I'd have to say that it's extremely doubtful.
Please feel free to check the spreadsheet at:
Montana FBS Move Spreadsheet
Let me know if you think any amounts need to be changed, or to help fill in the blanks. I am certainly not claiming omniscience here.
Thanks to all for your help. ReMax came up with most of the capital improvement costs. Thanks, ReMax!
I'll leave all of you to argue over where the annual
$5.8M-$10M will come from.
