Loser of the Brawl out?

[hm.grwn.grizfan]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Agv_rJgOi6r5dFRqbG9yRk13S0pUU2tCMzNWZWw0akE&usp=sharing" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Sortable Gridiron Power Index and SRS rankings. I'm writing up a playoff picture update too. :thumb:

Here is a link to GPI and SRS rankings.

 

[Buttegrizzle]

even if the griz win, they will not be seeded, too many teams ahead of them

Huh? There are six or seven and two of them lost yesterday. And why couldn't the Pig Sty get five in? We used to get three when we only had 8 teams and a smaller playoff bracket. I don't think there's is a rule about how many teams a conference can send if they are all worthy. With 13 teams and five having, possibly nine or more wins, they are all in with the expanded format.

 

[markson161]

Griz must be in, I received my ticket order form for all rounds of the playoffs yesterday, including semi-final game. Didn't receive such a form last year!

 

[mcg]

Let me get this straight. If the GRIZ lose, people expect them to fall from a top 8 team all the way out of the top 24 teams selected? WOW, give me some of whatever you are smoking. The GRIZ are in. As of now, beating the Cats will mean a top 8 seeding, and 1st round bye.

Do you think they'll take 5 from BSC? That's what it will take if Griz lose and SUU wins.

 

[cclarkblues]

OK, all this number rattling makes my head hurts but I am sure of two things.

1. We should go into Boztown believing that there's no tomorrow if we don't win.

2. If there's ever a question whether the Griz or someone else should go to the playoffs, we will be picked. Money talks and the beancounters at the NCAA are well aware of the number of butts we put into seats.

 

[mtgrizfankb]

Talon, end of seasob conf standings mean zero. The only one that matters is the winner the auto bid. Other than that conf standings don't matter a 9-3 griz team would get in easy. Prob one of the first non seeds. If we win....we easily get a top 8 seed. To be honest the cats have to win next week AND have Suu lose to get in.
Locks as of now: ewu,um,nau
If Suu beats nau.....they also have to get in.
Which means the order of who gets in from the sky would be this:
1 ewu10-2
2um9-3
3suu9-3
4nau8-3 losses to msu and Arizona and suu
5 msu8-4 losses to Suu,sfa,ewu,smu

 

[mtgrizfankb]

If Suu loses:
1 ewu
2nau 9-2
3 um 9-3
4 msu 8-4 msu would have to hope for the commitee to bring them in. Idk if that would happen. 2 non playoff team losses. One at home.

 

[mtgrizfankb]

What's really going to happen!:

1-ewu #3seed in playoffs10-2
2-um #6,7,8 seed in playoffs10-2
3-nau home playoff game 9-2
4-Suu 8-4 not quite but great effort
5-msu 7-5 enjoying a tukey sandwich and watching playoff games

Big sky gets 3 in and nau goes to ewu or ndsu second round.

 

[tnt]

And the scenario if SUU wins and the Griz lose? Don't they become the fifth team having lost to all the others except SUU who beat everbody but EWU that beat the Griz?

 

[grizindabox]

My assumption if the Cats beat the Griz...Griz most likely the 4th or 5th BSC team. No way the Griz are picked before EWU (auto), NAU, or MSU in that scenario (lost to all) and not sure when compared to SUU. SUU has a win @ MSU and at a FBS. If SUU beats NAU, Griz could be the 5th team from BSC. Best thing is for the Griz to win.

 

[mtgrizfankb]

And the scenario if SUU wins and the Griz lose? Don't they become the fifth team having lost to all the others except SUU who beat everbody but EWU that beat the Griz?

That was they very first one I did sir.
Ewu 10-2
,um 9-3....in loss vs ewu, msu,nau
Suu9-3 loss vs uc Davis....wait what????
Nau8-3 loss vs msu, Suu, arizona
Msu8-4 loss vs suu. Ewu, smu,sfa
Suu would be ahead of griz.....maybe nau but no way we don't get a home playoff game. Zero chance the griz don't make the playoffs ZERO

 

[wolfchief]

Shark I know u r a huge cat fan and I'm sorry that your playoff picture looks a little dismal but there still is a chance! Wolfchief will let you come over and watch the Griz game anytime buddy! I know you read e-grizz

 

[mtgrizfankb]

My assumption if the Cats beat the Griz...Griz most likely the 4th or 5th BSC team. No way the Griz are picked before EWU (auto), NAU, or MSU in that scenario (lost to all) and not sure when compared to SUU. SUU has a win @ MSU and at a FBS. If SUU beats NAU, Griz could be the 5th team from BSC. Best thing is for the Griz to win.

We didn't lose to sfa.....sfa. once again 9-3 is in. Easily. Use your theory. We lost to ewu,msu,nau so we're behind them all. But nau lost to msu. Msu lost to suu. We didn't play suu, nau lost to suu. Suu list to uc davis. We kill uc davis, so suu has to be behind uc davis and nau and msu have to be behind them ?

Youcan't just look at head to head .
How many losses...to who .
Any bad losses?
How many ppl come to your games.....

Like I said zero chance griz stay home. Msu had one terrible loss and will end with two bad losses if nau wins this week. Griz have zero bad losses.

 

[grizindabox]

My assumption if the Cats beat the Griz...Griz most likely the 4th or 5th BSC team. No way the Griz are picked before EWU (auto), NAU, or MSU in that scenario (lost to all) and not sure when compared to SUU. SUU has a win @ MSU and at a FBS. If SUU beats NAU, Griz could be the 5th team from BSC. Best thing is for the Griz to win.

We didn't lose to sfa.....sfa. once again 9-3 is in. Easily. Use your theory. We lost to ewu,msu,nau so we're behind them all. But nau lost to msu. Msu lost to suu. We didn't play suu, nau lost to suu. Suu list to uc davis. We kill uc davis, so suu has to be behind uc davis and nau and msu have to be behind them ?

Youcan't just look at head to head .
How many losses...to who .
Any bad losses?
How many ppl come to your games.....

Like I said zero chance griz stay home. Msu had one terrible loss and will end with two bad losses if nau wins this week. Griz have zero bad losses.

You realize things are weighted differently in the selection process. I would be fairly certain that head-to-head and "who you beat" is more important than "who you lost to" when comparing teams with a similar record. My point was not that UM would not be in the playoffs, but that there is still a small fraction of doubt because their is a scenario that could make it an interesting discussion amongst the committee. But this could also end up being nothing depending how other FCS games turn out.

 

[uofmman1122]

:lol: :lol:

There is literally no way we are not going to the playoffs.

9-3 Montana doesn't stay home ever.

 

[GrizMusician]

FFS... the Griz are a LOCK for the playoffs with the expanded field.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2

 

[Fahque]

Let me get this straight. If the GRIZ lose, people expect them to fall from a top 8 team all the way out of the top 24 teams selected? WOW, give me some of whatever you are smoking. The GRIZ are in. As of now, beating the Cats will mean a top 8 seeding, and 1st round bye.

At least somebody gets it. For Montana, the 9-2 (overall) is what is important not the 5-2 (conference). I don't know where everybody is getting the supposed emphasis on the conference standings. The only role they play is determining the auto bid from each conference. After that, the selection committee doesn't care about conference standings (because in some conferences like the BSC and CAA not everyone plays everybody else so its not always an equal comparison) and determines the at-large bids based off of overall season resume.

There is no rule to the limit of teams from a single conference. If a conference didn't have to beat up on itself, it could have all its teams in if they had better overall records (and SOS) then teams from other conferences. The biggest factor at this point to how many teams the BSC can get in is how the other teams around the country perform. For example, Delaware picking up its 4th loss today could help MSU's case down the road.

I truly think that EWU, NAU, UM, and SUU are locks at this point. There just aren't that many teams with 8 wins even at this point in the season (well, 19 of Top 25 have 8 wins but that includes 7 teams from cupcake leagues that should really be about undefeated in their weak conferences anyways). I think MSU could get in with a win next weekend and some help from around the country.

I think SUU is a lock over MSU because even if SUU loses and MSU wins next week, both would be 8-4 but SUU would still have a better resume, in my opinion:

SUU
-beat a FBS
-1 of losses to a FBS
-beat a Top 25 FCS
-2 of losses to Top 25 FCS
-only lost to 1 unranked FCS
-won the head-to-head

MSU
-1 of losses to a FBS
-beat 2 Top 25 FCS
-1 of losses to Top 25 FCS
-lost to 2 unranked FCS

:thumb: :thumb: :thumb: :thumb: :thumb: :thumb: :thumb:

I have lost count how many times this has been explained

 

[Grizzlies1982]

Those are three good posts above. Though nothing is "guaranteed" except winning your conference gets you into the playoffs.

However with that said, the Griz are about as close to guaranteed as they can get without it being stamped on their foreheads. Similar story about earning a first round bye. If the Griz win this weekend in Bozeman they still are not guaranteed a 1-8 seed. However, they will have an excellent chance at one.

Yet out of all the possible scenarios, the one which is closest to a guaranteed is that if the cats lose to the Grizzlies, they (the cats) will be watching the playoffs on TV not the field.

 

[HookedonGriz]

If the Griz lose their 3rd conference game vs MSU, they will have 3 BSC losses. That will have EWU/NAU ahead of them no matter if they win or lose. The Griz already have 2 conf. losses, an MSU win and a SUU win would put the Griz out of playoff's in any scenario as they would have lost to EWU/NAU/MSU and never played SUU. But SUU would have beaten MSU and NAU, so Griz would be #5 in the BSC with a 9-3 record, but just lost to the wrong teams. They WONT take 5 BSC teams. This is a must win for both the Cats and Griz, and they better rooting for NAU.

The selection goes by the SRS system. Conference records and such might play a role, but the selection committee has said that it is switching to te SRS system for selection. There have been numerous threads about this.

So are the cats out and just playing spoiler on us then?

I think the cats would be in with a a win vs the Griz and an SUU loss. They would still be playing spoiler, because next week we are playing for a seed. Right now the cats are 22 in the SRS so they were already on the bubble.

Actually the SRS is a brand new system and is not being used for playoff selections in 2013. It is live and operational but they are just testing it for now. The ratings you referred to (Griz at 11 and Cats at 22) are GPI rankings which will be used and taken into consideration for playoff teams on the bubble. As always, common sense is used first but I hear that even gets crazy when you lock a committee into a room together

 

[HookedonGriz]

Let me get this straight. If the GRIZ lose, people expect them to fall from a top 8 team all the way out of the top 24 teams selected? WOW, give me some of whatever you are smoking. The GRIZ are in. As of now, beating the Cats will mean a top 8 seeding, and 1st round bye.

At least somebody gets it. For Montana, the 9-2 (overall) is what is important not the 5-2 (conference). I don't know where everybody is getting the supposed emphasis on the conference standings. The only role they play is determining the auto bid from each conference. After that, the selection committee doesn't care about conference standings (because in some conferences like the BSC and CAA not everyone plays everybody else so its not always an equal comparison) and determines the at-large bids based off of overall season resume.

There is no rule to the limit of teams from a single conference. If a conference didn't have to beat up on itself, it could have all its teams in if they had better overall records (and SOS) then teams from other conferences. The biggest factor at this point to how many teams the BSC can get in is how the other teams around the country perform. For example, Delaware picking up its 4th loss today could help MSU's case down the road.

I truly think that EWU, NAU, UM, and SUU are locks at this point. There just aren't that many teams with 8 wins even at this point in the season (well, 19 of Top 25 have 8 wins but that includes 7 teams from cupcake leagues that should really be about undefeated in their weak conferences anyways). I think MSU could get in with a win next weekend and some help from around the country.

I think SUU is a lock over MSU because even if SUU loses and MSU wins next week, both would be 8-4 but SUU would still have a better resume, in my opinion:

SUU
-beat a FBS
-1 of losses to a FBS
-beat a Top 25 FCS
-2 of losses to Top 25 FCS
-only lost to 1 unranked FCS
-won the head-to-head

MSU
-1 of losses to a FBS
-beat 2 Top 25 FCS
-1 of losses to Top 25 FCS
-lost to 2 unranked FCS

This analysis is spot on and is 100 percent accurate. No limit as to what can come from a conference but 4 s probably all we will get from Big Sky as even that would be unprecedented. Conference record doesn't mean a thing. Talon it's time to get educated on this. The SRS system is up and running however, it will NOT be used this year for at-large playoff selection as its new and in test mode. So as always, GPI and common sense gets it done. Griz are a lock for playoffs. At worst they are 9-3 in a power conference and would not be left out with that resume. Cats on bubble and I agree if SUU and Cats both end up at 8-4 then I think SUU gets in based on GPI, a heads up win IN Bozeman, and a victory over an FBS opponent. Good analysis DoubleNicks...you're one of the few who knows what he-she is talking about. Cats win and they have a chance....albeit a small one.