Could the Griz get left out of the playoffs?

[uofmman1122]

Maybe so, but as of this morning, the Big Sky is ranked as the 6th best FCS conference by RPI.

Colonial
Southland
Big South
MVC
OVC
Big Sky

Well when you have more teams in the conference than any other... If you take out the bottom dwellers of the conference that are weighing it down, the Big Sky becomes the top conference by far.

Exactly. We have three or four really bad teams that drag the RPI down.

Against the rest of the FCS, the top 5 Big Sky teams are some of the best out there.

Against the top 5 from every other conference, I think the Big Sky wins most of those games.

You can't seriously suggest the OVC and Big South are better than the Big Sky. You can't even make that argument.

It's objectively ridiculous.

Point being, it is all depends on how the numbers are interpreted, and not everyone will do so the same.

If the selection committee is worth a damn, they will interpret it the same way I did.

 

[Eriul]

Maybe so, but as of this morning, the Big Sky is ranked as the 6th best FCS conference by RPI.

Colonial
Southland
Big South
MVC
OVC
Big Sky

Well when you have more teams in the conference than any other... If you take out the bottom dwellers of the conference that are weighing it down, the Big Sky becomes the top conference by far.

Exactly. We have three or four really bad teams that drag the RPI down.

Against the rest of the FCS, the top 5 Big Sky teams are some of the best out there.

Against the top 5 from every other conference, I think the Big Sky wins most of those games.

You can't seriously suggest the OVC and Big South are better than the Big Sky. You can't even make that argument.

It's objectively ridiculous.

Point being, it is all depends on how the numbers are interpreted, and not everyone will do so the same.

Which is a good point but rpi isn't everything. There's so many factors. And let's be real here . The big sky expanded and has more quality teams in it than any other conference. We have our cupcakes but so does everyone else but fact is we have 7 ish quality teams including 5 top 25 teams... I don't quite understand how that's not considered to be one of the best conferences if not the best. Show me another team in the fcs who had to play 3 top 10 teams...

 

[Eriul]

Excuse me we now have 5 of the top 20 teams according to new sports network poll... Please... Someone explain how a conference with 1/4 the top 20 teams is not the best...

 

[tnt]

.... but rpi isn't everything. There's so many factors. And let's be real here . The big sky expanded and has more quality teams in it than any other conference. We have our cupcakes but so does everyone else but fact is we have 7 ish quality teams including 5 top 25 teams... I don't quite understand how that's not considered to be one of the best conferences if not the best. Show me another team in the fcs who had to play 3 top 10 teams...

Heres another view. Wonder how its changed over the course of the season

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot2/writers/infcshuddle/archive/haley_05_22_2013.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Yes, conference realignment is clearly having an effect on the FCS as our 2013 conference rankings indicate:

1. Missouri Valley - The conference home of the two-time reigning FCS champions was ridiculously deep last season with about seven of the 10 teams among the 30 strongest in the FCS. That includes a 5-6 Northern Iowa squad that suffered its first losing season since 2002. South Dakota State, behind 2,000-yard rusher Zach Zenner, is considered the biggest threat to North Dakota State. Illinois State, Indiana State, Southern Illinois and Youngstown State might take a small step backward this year as UNI moves forward again.

2. Big Sky - Similar to Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley, the Big Sky will be much stronger if perennial power Montana finds its way back up the mountain after an awful season (in fact, it was the Grizzlies' first losing mark since 1985). Bitter rival Montana State has moved to the conference forefront during quarterback DeNarius McGhee's career, and Eastern Washington has a national championship and a national semifinal appearance in the last three seasons. Cal Poly and Northern Arizona figure to have banner seasons again and there is enough depth in the 13-member conference for a breakthrough team. This just might wind up being the top conference.

3. Southern Conference - Georgia Southern, which has made appearances in the last three FCS semifinals, and Appalachian State aren't eligible for either the conference championship or an FCS playoff bid, but they keep the SoCon strong this season. Their absence in the postseason will make it hard for the SoCon to make waves, however. Wofford is the team to beat, and Chattanooga thinks it can do just that this season. The Citadel and Samford really make this a strong conference - at least until next year.

4. CAA Football - Too many good teams and no great teams have brought the CAA back from the FCS lead. Villanova thinks it has a great team this year and Towson, behind running back Terrance West, is headed to a banner season. The two will try to separate themselves from the pack of New Hampshire (whose defense will be down), Richmond, James Madison, Delaware and Stony Brook, which comes aboard as Old Dominion - last year's best CAA team - departs the conference.

5. Southland Conference - In starting the second tier of FCS conferences, the Southland features Sam Houston State, which has lost to North Dakota State in each of the past two national championship games, and Central Arkansas. It's a twosome the Ohio Valley Conference - ranked sixth - can't match. The question is whether the middle tier in the Southland, though improved with McNeese State, Stephen F. Austin and likely Southeastern Louisiana, is as strong.

6. Ohio Valley Conference - Last year's surprise teams, Eastern Illinois and Tennessee State, won't sneak up on opponents this year, and both are strong enough to make the expanded 24-team playoffs. Jacksonville State is the steady power in the conference, although it has undergone a coaching change, and Eastern Kentucky and UT Martin have to overcome some big senior losses. This was the FCS' most offensive conference last year and there's a lot of returning talent.

7. Patriot League - The league will be on the rise as the scholarship classes mount, but there likely isn't a Top 15 or 20 team this year if Colgate or Lehigh take a step back. The teams behind the two powers are closing in for a tight race. Holy Cross lost some close games and should be much improved. Fordham, with the most scholarships to date, is coming on under coach Joe Moorhead, but the Rams remain ineligible for the league title until 2014.

8. Ivy League - It's still Penn and Harvard, Harvard and Penn, with a little Brown sprinkled into some title races. Princeton hopes to finally be putting it together, and Cornell has quarterback Jeff Mathews at the controls again. What can't be overlooked is a lot of players in this non-scholarship league could be playing elsewhere on scholarship. It's a quality league.

9. Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference - Bethune-Cookman has taken its program to a higher level under coach Brian Jenkins and the conference has a lot of evenly matched teams capable of beating each other. Talent-wise it was a relatively young conference last year. But to boast a high strength of conference, the MEAC needs South Carolina State, which is coming off its first losing season since 2001, to get back on track.

10. Big South - In going from a three-horse race to a two-horse race, the Big South lost its most dangerous program in Stony Brook. Coastal Carolina and Liberty will clash heads for the title. Only six teams deep - until Monmouth arrives next year - the conference has dropped considerably. Liberty is trying to step out the door to the FBS level.

11. Northeast Conference - The NEC sees its stock slip as well with Albany joining the CAA and Monmouth football not being asked back after its athletic program announced a move to the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Wagner, which has the smallest enrollment (2,000) of the seven remaining programs, is the team to beat off last year's title and playoff win.

12. Southwestern Athletic Conference - After the realignment negatives, how about some positive news? OK, the SWAC should be improved. But it basically can only be that way after last year's poor season across the league. Grambling State inexplicably fell to pieces after a 2011 title season. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Alabama State, Jackson State and Alabama A&M are a solid group of programs.

13. Pioneer Football League - It's now the second-biggest FCS conference with Mercer and Stetson raising the total to 12 programs, and the league finally has an automatic playoff bid for its champion. But there are some lumps along the way as its non-scholarship teams improve their non-conference scheduling. Butler, Drake and San Diego shared the title last season. Jacksonville has become a consistent winner as well, while Dayton wants to become a power again.

 

[mcg]

You understand that if UM loses to MSU, that you DON'T want to try that argument right? EWU, MSU, NAU, and SUU (especially if they beat NAU) would all be more deserving in our conference alone (having all beat a team with a winning record.) Then there is a question of how "deserving" the BSC itself is. Couple that with 11 other auto bids and another 7 or 8 deserving teams from those confernces that all beat teams with winning records.... and well the next thing you know its pretty muddy.

Woah... How is suu more deserving than montana in that scenario?

They would have defeated both NAU and the kitties and an FBS team.

Their fbs win is about the quality of a mediocre fcs team and they also lost to a sub par uc davis. Montana would have only losses to ranked teams... I highly doubt they will take suu over montana in that scenario

Seems to me a win on the road to a bad FBS team is better than win at home against Panhandle State.

My point is that if Griz lose and SUU wins, the probability of the Griz making the playoffs goes way down. To say that we are 'locked' or 'guaranteed' is wildly underestimating the chance that the games fall in such a way that the Griz are out.

I gotta say, in the Griz lose/SUU wins scenario I don't see any way the selection committee doesn't position SUU above the Griz. They will have 3 wins better than any the Griz have, it's that simple to me.

I don't think the rankings matter, the selection committee will look much more closely at actual performance than the typical rankings voter (note that the 'rankings' have the Griz ranked higher than NAU, makes no sense at all). I don't think money matters. The NCAA budget is built around mega-million March Madness money, a few hundred thousand dollars won't make or break the NCAA. I think the selection committee would have no problem keeping a 3 loss Griz team out, ask NAU about that.

For the record, could the Griz lose and SUU win and the Griz still make the playoffs? Absolutely, but to say that the Griz are 'guaranteed' at this point is mis-guided.

I hope everyone associated with the team understands that beating the kitties is the best way to the playoffs.

Go Griz!

 

[marceagfan5]

Excuse me we now have 5 of the top 20 teams according to new sports network poll... Please... Someone explain how a conference with 1/4 the top 20 teams is not the best...

Because the Big Sky hasnt done well in out of conference FCS games, I believe we are below .500 when the other conferences are well above .500.

I'm not saying thats an indicator, but its one of the few ways to compare apples to apples...

Our top half in my opinion is the best of any conference in the country.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Excuse me we now have 5 of the top 20 teams according to new sports network poll... Please... Someone explain how a conference with 1/4 the top 20 teams is not the best...

Because a conference rating is based on the entire conference and just not the top. Also, outside of EWU's win against Oregon St, the conference has no good OOC wins.

 

[get'em_griz]

Woah... How is suu more deserving than montana in that scenario?

They would have defeated both NAU and the kitties and an FBS team.

Their fbs win is about the quality of a mediocre fcs team and they also lost to a sub par uc davis. Montana would have only losses to ranked teams... I highly doubt they will take suu over montana in that scenario

Seems to me a win on the road to a bad FBS team is better than win at home against Panhandle State.

My point is that if Griz lose and SUU wins, the probability of the Griz making the playoffs goes way down. To say that we are 'locked' or 'guaranteed' is wildly underestimating the chance that the games fall in such a way that the Griz are out.

I gotta say, in the Griz lose/SUU wins scenario I don't see any way the selection committee doesn't position SUU above the Griz. They will have 3 wins better than any the Griz have, it's that simple to me.

I don't think the rankings matter, the selection committee will look much more closely at actual performance than the typical rankings voter (note that the 'rankings' have the Griz ranked higher than NAU, makes no sense at all). I don't think money matters. The NCAA budget is built around mega-million March Madness money, a few hundred thousand dollars won't make or break the NCAA. I think the selection committee would have no problem keeping a 3 loss Griz team out, ask NAU about that.

For the record, could the Griz lose and SUU win and the Griz still make the playoffs? Absolutely, but to say that the Griz are 'guaranteed' at this point is mis-guided.

I hope everyone associated with the team understands that beating the kitties is the best way to the playoffs.

Go Griz!

We are locked, guaranteed...

 

[DuCharme]

Guys do me a favor and go read sports network articles about it. There were 2 articles written last week about this and they both say that 5 teams is very possible

You act like we didn't discredit TSN about 10 years ago around here.(come back, Tony Moss)
What's the point of fun, good discussion if we're to just read an article and leave it at that?

 

[mcg]

Excuse me we now have 5 of the top 20 teams according to new sports network poll... Please... Someone explain how a conference with 1/4 the top 20 teams is not the best...

Because the Big Sky hasnt done well in out of conference FCS games, I believe we are below .500 when the other conferences are well above .500.

I'm not saying thats an indicator, but its one of the few ways to compare apples to apples...

Our top half in my opinion is the best of any conference in the country.

With all due respect, how many OVC, MVC, Big South or Southland games have you seen this year? It's really hard to evaluate the relative strength of conferences because nobody sees a lot of games outside the particular conference we are interested in.

 

[Eriul]

Excuse me we now have 5 of the top 20 teams according to new sports network poll... Please... Someone explain how a conference with 1/4 the top 20 teams is not the best...

Because the Big Sky hasnt done well in out of conference FCS games, I believe we are below .500 when the other conferences are well above .500.

I'm not saying thats an indicator, but its one of the few ways to compare apples to apples...

Our top half in my opinion is the best of any conference in the country.

So because our out of conference isn't incredible that throws out the fact that 40% of our conference is ranked...I understand the argument but to put the big sky 5th is utterly absurd.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Excuse me we now have 5 of the top 20 teams according to new sports network poll... Please... Someone explain how a conference with 1/4 the top 20 teams is not the best...

Because the Big Sky hasnt done well in out of conference FCS games, I believe we are below .500 when the other conferences are well above .500.

I'm not saying thats an indicator, but its one of the few ways to compare apples to apples...

Our top half in my opinion is the best of any conference in the country.

So because our out of conference isn't incredible that throws out the fact that 40% of our conference is ranked...I understand the argument but to put the big sky 5th is utterly absurd.

They are actually rated the 6th best conference

 

[Eriul]

Woah... How is suu more deserving than montana in that scenario?

They would have defeated both NAU and the kitties and an FBS team.

Their fbs win is about the quality of a mediocre fcs team and they also lost to a sub par uc davis. Montana would have only losses to ranked teams... I highly doubt they will take suu over montana in that scenario

Seems to me a win on the road to a bad FBS team is better than win at home against Panhandle State.

My point is that if Griz lose and SUU wins, the probability of the Griz making the playoffs goes way down. To say that we are 'locked' or 'guaranteed' is wildly underestimating the chance that the games fall in such a way that the Griz are out.

I gotta say, in the Griz lose/SUU wins scenario I don't see any way the selection committee doesn't position SUU above the Griz. They will have 3 wins better than any the Griz have, it's that simple to me.

I don't think the rankings matter, the selection committee will look much more closely at actual performance than the typical rankings voter (note that the 'rankings' have the Griz ranked higher than NAU, makes no sense at all). I don't think money matters. The NCAA budget is built around mega-million March Madness money, a few hundred thousand dollars won't make or break the NCAA. I think the selection committee would have no problem keeping a 3 loss Griz team out, ask NAU about that.

For the record, could the Griz lose and SUU win and the Griz still make the playoffs? Absolutely, but to say that the Griz are 'guaranteed' at this point is mis-guided.

I hope everyone associated with the team understands that beating the kitties is the best way to the playoffs.

Go Griz!

Your comparison to their win against southern Alabama to our win vs. panhandle is comparing apples to oranges . We both had an out of conference game against the same level of oppenent which we both won and we both won a cupcake game. That's a better comparison.

There are other posts on here with actual logic about out of conference bids that all show the point that finding 24 quality teams is already going to be hard.. No way a 9-3 griz don't get in.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

They would have defeated both NAU and the kitties and an FBS team.

Their fbs win is about the quality of a mediocre fcs team and they also lost to a sub par uc davis. Montana would have only losses to ranked teams... I highly doubt they will take suu over montana in that scenario

Seems to me a win on the road to a bad FBS team is better than win at home against Panhandle State.

My point is that if Griz lose and SUU wins, the probability of the Griz making the playoffs goes way down. To say that we are 'locked' or 'guaranteed' is wildly underestimating the chance that the games fall in such a way that the Griz are out.

I gotta say, in the Griz lose/SUU wins scenario I don't see any way the selection committee doesn't position SUU above the Griz. They will have 3 wins better than any the Griz have, it's that simple to me.

I don't think the rankings matter, the selection committee will look much more closely at actual performance than the typical rankings voter (note that the 'rankings' have the Griz ranked higher than NAU, makes no sense at all). I don't think money matters. The NCAA budget is built around mega-million March Madness money, a few hundred thousand dollars won't make or break the NCAA. I think the selection committee would have no problem keeping a 3 loss Griz team out, ask NAU about that.

For the record, could the Griz lose and SUU win and the Griz still make the playoffs? Absolutely, but to say that the Griz are 'guaranteed' at this point is mis-guided.

I hope everyone associated with the team understands that beating the kitties is the best way to the playoffs.

Go Griz!

Your comparison to their win against southern Alabama to our win vs. panhandle is comparing apples to oranges . We both had an out of conference game against the same level of oppenent which we both won and we both won a cupcake game. That's a better comparison.

There are other posts on here with actual logic about out of conference bids that all show the point that finding 24 quality teams is already going to be hard.. No way a 9-3 griz don't get in.

South Alabama is a FBS team, OPSU is NAIA

 

[marceagfan5]

Bottom line is the Griz are currently ranked 5th in the country, even if they lose, they probably drop to 10th or 11th.

No way the NCAA let$ the Griz $tay home for the playoff$ ranked that high...

 

[Eriul]

Excuse me we now have 5 of the top 20 teams according to new sports network poll... Please... Someone explain how a conference with 1/4 the top 20 teams is not the best...

Because the Big Sky hasnt done well in out of conference FCS games, I believe we are below .500 when the other conferences are well above .500.

I'm not saying thats an indicator, but its one of the few ways to compare apples to apples...

Our top half in my opinion is the best of any conference in the country.

So because our out of conference isn't incredible that throws out the fact that 40% of our conference is ranked...I understand the argument but to put the big sky 5th is utterly absurd.

They are actually rated the 6th best conference

And the Jeff sagarin rankings have northern Illinois as the 3 rd team in the fbs.. Just because a computer says it doesn't make it correct

 

[Eriul]

Their fbs win is about the quality of a mediocre fcs team and they also lost to a sub par uc davis. Montana would have only losses to ranked teams... I highly doubt they will take suu over montana in that scenario

Seems to me a win on the road to a bad FBS team is better than win at home against Panhandle State.

My point is that if Griz lose and SUU wins, the probability of the Griz making the playoffs goes way down. To say that we are 'locked' or 'guaranteed' is wildly underestimating the chance that the games fall in such a way that the Griz are out.

I gotta say, in the Griz lose/SUU wins scenario I don't see any way the selection committee doesn't position SUU above the Griz. They will have 3 wins better than any the Griz have, it's that simple to me.

I don't think the rankings matter, the selection committee will look much more closely at actual performance than the typical rankings voter (note that the 'rankings' have the Griz ranked higher than NAU, makes no sense at all). I don't think money matters. The NCAA budget is built around mega-million March Madness money, a few hundred thousand dollars won't make or break the NCAA. I think the selection committee would have no problem keeping a 3 loss Griz team out, ask NAU about that.

For the record, could the Griz lose and SUU win and the Griz still make the playoffs? Absolutely, but to say that the Griz are 'guaranteed' at this point is mis-guided.

I hope everyone associated with the team understands that beating the kitties is the best way to the playoffs.

Go Griz!

Your comparison to their win against southern Alabama to our win vs. panhandle is comparing apples to oranges . We both had an out of conference game against the same level of oppenent which we both won and we both won a cupcake game. That's a better comparison.

There are other posts on here with actual logic about out of conference bids that all show the point that finding 24 quality teams is already going to be hard.. No way a 9-3 griz don't get in.

South Alabama is a FBS team, OPSU is NAIA

Sooooooo we faced no out of conference opponent that isn't mid fcs ..? Reading comprehension is hard isn't it? Thanks for reaffirming my apples to oranges assertion


To be clear because apparently I need to spell it out. We face app state who is arguably just as good as southern Alabama and we faced ok panhandle and suu faced a cupcake in fort Lewis. Let's not be stupid and say we have a cupcake schedule and no one else does because we faced 1 cupcake.

 

[GrizzleMoose]

Their fbs win is about the quality of a mediocre fcs team and they also lost to a sub par uc davis. Montana would have only losses to ranked teams... I highly doubt they will take suu over montana in that scenario

Seems to me a win on the road to a bad FBS team is better than win at home against Panhandle State.

My point is that if Griz lose and SUU wins, the probability of the Griz making the playoffs goes way down. To say that we are 'locked' or 'guaranteed' is wildly underestimating the chance that the games fall in such a way that the Griz are out.

I gotta say, in the Griz lose/SUU wins scenario I don't see any way the selection committee doesn't position SUU above the Griz. They will have 3 wins better than any the Griz have, it's that simple to me.

I don't think the rankings matter, the selection committee will look much more closely at actual performance than the typical rankings voter (note that the 'rankings' have the Griz ranked higher than NAU, makes no sense at all). I don't think money matters. The NCAA budget is built around mega-million March Madness money, a few hundred thousand dollars won't make or break the NCAA. I think the selection committee would have no problem keeping a 3 loss Griz team out, ask NAU about that.

For the record, could the Griz lose and SUU win and the Griz still make the playoffs? Absolutely, but to say that the Griz are 'guaranteed' at this point is mis-guided.

I hope everyone associated with the team understands that beating the kitties is the best way to the playoffs.

Go Griz!

Your comparison to their win against southern Alabama to our win vs. panhandle is comparing apples to oranges . We both had an out of conference game against the same level of oppenent which we both won and we both won a cupcake game. That's a better comparison.

There are other posts on here with actual logic about out of conference bids that all show the point that finding 24 quality teams is already going to be hard.. No way a 9-3 griz don't get in.

South Alabama is a FBS team, OPSU is NAIA

OPSU is NCAA Division II, not NAIA.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Eriul, think the point is SUU played the following OOC

South Alabama (FBS) won
Ft Lewis (D2) won
Washington St (FBS) lost
Sacramento St (FCS) won

the Griz played

ASU (FCS) won
UND (FCS) won
OPSU (NAIA) won
USD (FCS) won

you asked why SUU could be picked ahead of Montana if the Griz lose and SUU wins this week.

not sure that the OOC are that comparable in regards to opponents

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Seems to me a win on the road to a bad FBS team is better than win at home against Panhandle State.

My point is that if Griz lose and SUU wins, the probability of the Griz making the playoffs goes way down. To say that we are 'locked' or 'guaranteed' is wildly underestimating the chance that the games fall in such a way that the Griz are out.

I gotta say, in the Griz lose/SUU wins scenario I don't see any way the selection committee doesn't position SUU above the Griz. They will have 3 wins better than any the Griz have, it's that simple to me.

I don't think the rankings matter, the selection committee will look much more closely at actual performance than the typical rankings voter (note that the 'rankings' have the Griz ranked higher than NAU, makes no sense at all). I don't think money matters. The NCAA budget is built around mega-million March Madness money, a few hundred thousand dollars won't make or break the NCAA. I think the selection committee would have no problem keeping a 3 loss Griz team out, ask NAU about that.

For the record, could the Griz lose and SUU win and the Griz still make the playoffs? Absolutely, but to say that the Griz are 'guaranteed' at this point is mis-guided.

I hope everyone associated with the team understands that beating the kitties is the best way to the playoffs.

Go Griz!

Your comparison to their win against southern Alabama to our win vs. panhandle is comparing apples to oranges . We both had an out of conference game against the same level of oppenent which we both won and we both won a cupcake game. That's a better comparison.

There are other posts on here with actual logic about out of conference bids that all show the point that finding 24 quality teams is already going to be hard.. No way a 9-3 griz don't get in.

South Alabama is a FBS team, OPSU is NAIA

OPSU is NCAA Division II, not NAIA.

that plays an NAIA schedule