Conference (Bid) End-Games

[mcg]

Great analysis - one thing to point out.

Coastal Carolina will likely get an at-large bid (#11 GPI), and Charleston Southern currently has the tie-breaker over them to take the AQ. If Liberty can beat CSU, then CCU would take the AQ and the Big South would be a one-bid conference.

Which is a very good thing in the oft-debated Griz lose/SUU wins scenario.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Great analysis - one thing to point out.

Coastal Carolina will likely get an at-large bid (#11 GPI), and Charleston Southern currently has the tie-breaker over them to take the AQ. If Liberty can beat CSU, then CCU would take the AQ and the Big South would be a one-bid conference.

Right. That's the "(2?)" after the Big South in the summary list. Although CSU is at home, an upset by Liberty would not be a shocker. They've played teams very tough: Recall that Coastal Carolina had to go into double overtime for the win.

 

[Montana Gym Rat]

Great analysis - one thing to point out.

Coastal Carolina will likely get an at-large bid (#11 GPI), and Charleston Southern currently has the tie-breaker over them to take the AQ. If Liberty can beat CSU, then CCU would take the AQ and the Big South would be a one-bid conference.

Right. That's the "(2?)" after the Big South in the summary list. Although CSU is at home, an upset by Liberty would not be a shocker. They've played teams very tough: Recall that Coastal Carolina had to go into double overtime for the win.

Gotcha. Yeah, I think Liberty has a good shot to get the win too. But I would think CSU has to be favored - and knowing what's at stake they'll probably put a game together like they did against Coastal Carolina earlier this year. I'm rooting for Liberty and hope they pull it out, but realistically I'm thinking CSU takes care of business.

 

[Eriul]

Haven't most people already dismissed sagarin rankings this season? I'm pretty sure espn has run many segments on how bad the sagarin rankings are this season

If an ESPN commentator has said that, I don't see it in print. The Sagarin ratings are one of the computer ranking components of the BCS. I'm no expert on the BCS and not a fan of the BCS system. But teams have to be picked, both in the FBS and the FCS, just more teams in the FCS.

Nobody but Sagarin knows how his formula is put together, and he has been tweeking his system this fall. He produced an Elo chess system based on the system used internationally to rank chess players. This fall that morphed into an Elo Score system, but is now Pure Elo. With the Elo Score system, several FCS teams became top 10 in that category, and that's what commentators were probably talking about. That component is gone now.

Along with a Predictor calculation, he now has a DIMIN Curve. You can see his explanations of what they are at the top of his calculations.

Yah it's been on espn a lot especially once the bcs came out and even was on yesterday. Look who sagarin has at 3 in the fbs. Most people are actually saying the sagarin rankings and the other computer rankings are the problem with the bcs. Sorry but I don't trust computers to tell me something different then what my eyes see.

 

[AZGrizFan]

That the sagarin ratings are so high on NI is enough to be skeptical of the sagarin ratings, UNI won't make the field.

And the SRS has UNI at No. 7. Why do you think two systems come to a similar conclusion? UNI gave NDSU it's toughest challenge all year, losing by only one point in Fargo. Three of UNI's losses were in overtime. In years past, a team's record was perhaps the most important selection criteria. That's far less important this year. UNI will beat W Ill Saturday to finish 7-5. All 7 wins were against FCS teams with one FBS win. Just the fact that this year the Committee is saying 6 wins instead of 7 gives you a hint.

It might be a surprise if UNI gets in, but I will be less surprised than you.

I'd rather see UNI than a second team out of the MEAC, PFL, Pioneer, NEC or Patriot.