• Hi Guest, want to participate in the discussions, keep track of read/unread posts and more? Create your free account and increase the benefits of your eGriz.com experience today!

Conference (Bid) End-Games

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
I think something like this has been done before, but we were not yet down to the final games. It's now worth looking at the "big picture," conference by conference. (I provide a summary at the end.)

If the "favorites" (teams with better records) win next weekend, the Big Sky final standings will be:

  • EWU (10-2)
    NAU (9-2)
    UM (10-2)
    SUU (8-4)
    MSU (7-5)
We can ignore an upset by PSU, because EWU will get a bid, no matter what. That would leave a total of four teams that might get bids. (I think everyone would agree that no 5-loss team is going to get an at-large bid, no matter how many of those were "good losses." Hopefully the Griz will indeed put MSU in that boat. :D )

But suppose SUU upsets NAU and the kitties upset the Griz?

  • EWU (10-2)
    SUU (9-3)
    NAU (8-3)
    UM (9-3)
    MSU (8-4)
The Big Sky might have as many as five who could get bids.

The Big South currently has two 10-win teams, but the conference is #8 (of 14) in GPI rank. It's not likely they will get anything more than their auto-bid. (Perhaps pencil in a second?) Accept for one interesting case, I'll leave the other wimp conferences (#9 GPI Patriot and down) for the summary.

The CAA has been the "standard" for getting lots of teams into the playoffs. I already assessed their likely end-of-season situation in detail here http://www.egriz.com/grizboard/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=64680#p926257

The most likely scenario (favorites win next weekend), leaves the CAA with four possible bid candidates, two of them with 8-4 records: Maine, Towson, Delaware, and W&M. Only if Delaware pulls off the upset against Maine -- which would still own the automatic bid -- would there be five to consider:

On the other hand, a couple of key upsets could leave the CAA with just two teams likely to get bids: Maine and Towson. Every other team would have at least 5 losses.

NDSU has already clinched the auto-bid from the Missouri Valley. Youngstown State and SDSU are the only other two possibilities ... everyone else has at least 5 losses already. As it happens, YSU and SDSU face off this coming weekend, at Youngstown. If YSU wins (and their only home loss was to NDSU), they would end up 9-3, while SDSU would be 7-5. If YSU loses, that would make three straight losses to end the season. Result: either way, the MVC gets only one at-large bid.

Eastern Illinois (10-1) has already clinched the automatic bid for the Ohio Valley. Tennessee State (9-3) is done for the season, while Jacksonville State (8-3) has a very winnable game ahead. The OVC might well get two at-large bids for 9-3 teams, although TSN considered J'ville's chance somewhat problematic after they were blown out by Eastern, losing 52-14.

The Patriot (#9 in GPI) has had a peculiar situation develop. Lehigh and Lafayette are both 3-1 in conference. They play next weekend, at Lehigh. Lafayette upset Fordham last Saturday, and that might just give them the momentum to upset Lehigh and get the automatic bid. That, I believe, would knock Lehigh out of a chance for an at-large bid. (That late-season loss, BTW, probably knocked Fordham out of consideration ... although you never know.) If Lafayette does pull off back-to-back upsets, we would then have the spectacle of a team with a losing record (5-6) in the playoffs.

With Chattanooga's loss to Samford, the Southern Conference championship just got strange. Chattie faces BCS #1 Alabama, so they will end with an 8-4 record. Samford should take care of Elon easily at home, ending also at 8-4. But the auto-bid will somehow depend up the game between Furman (6-5) and Wofford (5-5). If Furman wins (by no means a given) they, by some arcane tie-breaker sequence, would apparently get the SoCon auto-bid. Would the committee then hand out at-large bids to both 8-4 teams. The SoCon is not that strong this year (#7 GPI), so I think not. However, this plays out, I think the SoCon gets two bids, period.

Southeastern Louisiana has already clinched the Southland Conference automatic bid. McNeese is at Lamar (5-6) and is almost certain to win and finish at 9-3. Sam Houston State (8-3) has to play at Central Arkansas (6-5), where they apparently have had some trouble winning. Would a 8-4 SHSU team be in the running for a bid? The Southland is #2 in GPI, so I think they would

Summary

  • Big Sky: 4-5
    Big South: 1 (2?)
    CAA: 2-4
    MEAC: 1
    MVC: 2
    NEC: 1 ... Sacred Heart (10-2) already has the auto-bid.
    OVC: 2-3
    Patriot: 1
    Pioneer: 1
    Southern: 2
    Southland: 3
Add up the minimum numbers. They come to just 20. The maximums add up to 25, with one of those very questionable from the Big South, and another somewhat uncertain from the OVC. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that the committee could have trouble finding enough credible teams to fill 24 playoff spots. (Granted, Fordham and Lehigh could be spoilers, but then not all the stronger conferences could get the “maximums” either.)
 
IdaGriz01 said:
I think something like this has been done before, but we were not yet down to the final games. It's now worth looking at the "big picture," conference by conference. (I provide a summary at the end.)

If the "favorites" (teams with better records) win next weekend, the Big Sky final standings will be:

  • EWU (10-2)
    NAU (9-2)
    UM (10-2)
    SUU (8-4)
    MSU (7-5)
We can ignore an upset by PSU, because EWU will get a bid, no matter what. That would leave a total of four teams that might get bids. (I think everyone would agree that no 5-loss team is going to get an at-large bid, no matter how many of those were "good losses." Hopefully the Griz will indeed put MSU in that boat. :D )

But suppose SUU upsets NAU and the kitties upset the Griz?

  • EWU (10-2)
    SUU (9-3)
    NAU (8-3)
    UM (9-3)
    MSU (8-4)
The Big Sky might have as many as five who could get bids.

The Big South currently has two 10-win teams, but the conference is #8 (of 14) in GPI rank. It's not likely they will get anything more than their auto-bid. (Perhaps pencil in a second?) Accept for one interesting case, I'll leave the other wimp conferences (#9 GPI Patriot and down) for the summary.

The CAA has been the "standard" for getting lots of teams into the playoffs. I already assessed their likely end-of-season situation in detail here viewtopic.php?f=1&t=64680#p926257

The most likely scenario (favorites win next weekend), leaves the CAA with four possible bid candidates, two of them with 8-4 records: Maine, Towson, Delaware, and W&M. Only if Delaware pulls off the upset against Maine -- which would still own the automatic bid -- would there be five to consider:

On the other hand, a couple of key upsets could leave the CAA with just two teams likely to get bids: Maine and Towson. Every other team would have at least 5 losses.

NDSU has already clinched the auto-bid from the Missouri Valley. Youngstown State and SDSU are the only other two possibilities ... everyone else has at least 5 losses already. As it happens, YSU and SDSU face off this coming weekend, at Youngstown. If YSU wins (and their only home loss was to NDSU), they would end up 9-3, while SDSU would be 7-5. If YSU loses, that would make three straight losses to end the season. Result: either way, the MVC gets only one at-large bid.

Eastern Illinois (10-1) has already clinched the automatic bid for the Ohio Valley. Tennessee State (9-3) is done for the season, while Jacksonville State (8-3) has a very winnable game ahead. The OVC might well get two at-large bids for 9-3 teams, although TSN considered J'ville's chance somewhat problematic after they were blown out by Eastern, losing 52-14.

The Patriot (#9 in GPI) has had a peculiar situation develop. Lehigh and Lafayette are both 3-1 in conference. They play next weekend, at Lehigh. Lafayette upset Fordham last Saturday, and that might just give them the momentum to upset Lehigh and get the automatic bid. That, I believe, would knock Lehigh out of a chance for an at-large bid. (That late-season loss, BTW, probably knocked Fordham out of consideration ... although you never know.) If Lafayette does pull off back-to-back upsets, we would then have the spectacle of a team with a losing record (5-6) in the playoffs.

With Chattanooga's loss to Samford, the Southern Conference championship just got strange. Chattie faces BCS #1 Alabama, so they will end with an 8-4 record. Samford should take care of Elon easily at home, ending also at 8-4. But the auto-bid will somehow depend up the game between Furman (6-5) and Wofford (5-5). If Furman wins (by no means a given) they, by some arcane tie-breaker sequence, would apparently get the SoCon auto-bid. Would the committee then hand out at-large bids to both 8-4 teams. The SoCon is not that strong this year (#7 GPI), so I think not. However, this plays out, I think the SoCon gets two bids, period.

Southeastern Louisiana has already clinched the Southland Conference automatic bid. McNeese is at Lamar (5-6) and is almost certain to win and finish at 9-3. Sam Houston State (8-3) has to play at Central Arkansas (6-5), where they apparently have had some trouble winning. Would a 8-4 SHSU team be in the running for a bid? The Southland is #2 in GPI, so I think they would

Summary

  • Big Sky: 4-5
    Big South: 1 (2?)
    CAA: 2-4
    MEAC: 1
    MVC: 2
    NEC: 1 ... Sacred Heart (10-2) already has the auto-bid.
    OVC: 2-3
    Patriot: 1
    Pioneer: 1
    Southern: 2
    Southland: 3
Add up the minimum numbers. They come to just 20. The maximums add up to 25, with one of those very questionable from the Big South, and another somewhat uncertain from the OVC. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that the committee could have trouble finding enough credible teams to fill 24 playoff spots. (Granted, Fordham and Lehigh could be spoilers, but then not all the stronger conferences could get the “maximums” either.)


Big South was 3rd ranked FCS Conference in the updated RPI Conference rankings I saw a little earlier
 
Maybe my bonehead math sucks, but I get 24 out of the max.
*edit*... it does suck, I didnt see the possible 2 in the Big South cuz you tricked me and put it in parentheses, lol
 
HelenaHandBasket said:
...
Big South was 3rd ranked FCS Conference in the updated RPI Conference rankings I saw a little earlier
Really? Do you have a link?

That would have been a huge jump from a week ago:
1. Missouri Valley Football Conference (27.64)
2. Southland Conference (32.88)
3. Colonial Athletic Association (33.94)
4. Ohio Valley Conference (37.67)
5. Big Sky Conference (43.07)
6. Ivy League (50.07)
7. Southern Conference (50.57)
8. Big South Conference (51.86)
9. Patriot League (56.39)
...
http://www.collegesportingnews.com/...er-Index-(GPI)-Movements-Abound-Behind-1-NDSU
 
DuCharme said:
Maybe my bonehead math sucks, but I get 24 out of the max.
*edit*... it does suck, I didnt see the possible 2 in the Big South cuz you tricked me and put it in parentheses, lol
Sorry 'bout that. ;)
 
As I read that it would seem that (barring some real odd stuff happening) getting 5 in from the Big Sky isn't that far out of this world.
 
BWahlberg said:
As I read that it would seem that (barring some real odd stuff happening) getting 5 in from the Big Sky isn't that far out of this world.

I don't personally think msu will get in if we beat them or suu if they lose but I think it's more likely than people would be willin to admit. Obviously ranking doesn't mean anything in playoff picks but we do have 5 teams in the top 20, which is a stat that is mind blowing to me. Comparable to the sec
 
I'm going to say IdaGriz changes his username to "The Professor".

Seriously though, thank you for all the work you put into this, always enjoy your threads.

After reading all the threads and posts on the playoff possibilities, I really believe there will be 4 BSC teams in and maybe a fifth. I hope they all do some damage in the playoffs to show it was deserved.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
HelenaHandBasket said:
...
Big South was 3rd ranked FCS Conference in the updated RPI Conference rankings I saw a little earlier
Really? Do you have a link?

That would have been a huge jump from a week ago:
1. Missouri Valley Football Conference (27.64)
2. Southland Conference (32.88)
3. Colonial Athletic Association (33.94)
4. Ohio Valley Conference (37.67)
5. Big Sky Conference (43.07)
6. Ivy League (50.07)
7. Southern Conference (50.57)
8. Big South Conference (51.86)
9. Patriot League (56.39)
...
http://www.collegesportingnews.com/...er-Index-(GPI)-Movements-Abound-Behind-1-NDSU
How is all of this calculated? Are we low because our conference is big with 4-5 real bottom dwellers? Honestly, Idaho State Northern Colorado Sac State could be real wrecking balls in some of these other conferences. I know they're not good, but some of the other conferences are really bad. I just don't see how we can be that low. Most of the schools in our conference play at least one FBS team and some of them play 2. I just don't see the reasoning for the low marks on something like this.
 
Even if SUU and kittens lose I still c us getting 5 because the other conferences don't have as many great teams as we do. One of the kittens losses is to SMU by one point and besides SFA, the other three r playoff teams, two of which will b ranked in the top five or higher. SUU has quietly done very well. 1-1 against 1-A teams and a loss to Ewuuu and potential NAU. One ugly loss to UCDavis is their only blemish
 
dupuyer griz said:
IdaGriz01 said:
HelenaHandBasket said:
...
Big South was 3rd ranked FCS Conference in the updated RPI Conference rankings I saw a little earlier
Really? Do you have a link?

That would have been a huge jump from a week ago:
1. Missouri Valley Football Conference (27.64)
2. Southland Conference (32.88)
3. Colonial Athletic Association (33.94)
4. Ohio Valley Conference (37.67)
5. Big Sky Conference (43.07)
6. Ivy League (50.07)
7. Southern Conference (50.57)
8. Big South Conference (51.86)
9. Patriot League (56.39)
...
http://www.collegesportingnews.com/...er-Index-(GPI)-Movements-Abound-Behind-1-NDSU
How is all of this calculated? Are we low because our conference is big with 4-5 real bottom dwellers? Honestly, Idaho State Northern Colorado Sac State could be real wrecking balls in some of these other conferences. I know they're not good, but some of the other conferences are really bad. I just don't see how we can be that low. Most of the schools in our conference play at least one FBS team and some of them play 2. I just don't see the reasoning for the low marks on something like this.

I don't put a lot of stock in conference rankings because the number of bottom feeders can influence the numbers so bad. The BSC had 4 really bad teams this year, and that really skews the numbers. And not every team plays each other anymore with these big conferences, so you don't even get a true rating within your conference, Montana only played one of those 4 in a conference game, most teams played 2 or 3. Overall you're going to get a number for comparison, but I just can't take them too seriously.
 
MVC will probably get more than two bids. South Dakota State, with a win, will be in as will YSU and NDSU. Northern Iowa perhaps even after their mid-season collapse. A 7-5 MVC team is much more likely to get in then a 8-4 Big Sky team.
 
You take the Sagarin Ratings for the top 5 teams in each conference and the Big Sky still comes in fifth, although we're close to 3 and 4.

1. MISSOURI VALLEY — Avg. 81.6
24 North Dakota State (10-0)
86 Northern Iowa (6-5)
91 Youngstown State (8-3)
102 Southern Illinois (6-5)
105 South Dakota State (7-4)

2. COLONIAL — Avg. 86.8
75 Towson (9-2)
78 Villanova (5-5)
79 William & Mary (7-4)
85 Maine (10-1)
117 New Hampshire (6-4)

134 Richmond (5-6)
136 Stony Brook (4-6)
138 James Madison (6-5)
153 Delaware (7-4)

3. SOUTHLAND — Avg. 112.0
71 SE Louisiana (9-2)
92 McNeese State (9-2)
93 Sam Houston State (8-3)
130 Central Arkansas (6-5)
174 Northwestern State (5-6)

4. OHIO VALLEY — Avg. 112.8
43 Eastern Illinois (10-1)
121 Tennessee State (9-3)
123 Jacksonville State (8-3)
131 Tennessee-Martin (7-4)
146 Eastern Kentucky (6-5)

5. BIG SKY — Avg. 114
72 Eastern Washington (9-2)
103 Montana (9-2)
125 Cal Poly (5-6)
133 Northern Arizona (8-2)
137 Montana State (7-4)

157 Southern Utah (8-3)
163 Sacramento State (5-6)
165 Portland State (6-5)

6. SOUTHERN — Avg. 161.8 (excluding Appy State and Georgia Southern)
141 Samford (7-4)
142 Chattanooga (8-3)
168 Furman (6-5)
176 The Citadel (5-6)
182 Wofford (5-5)

7. PATRIOT — Avg. 162
127 Fordham (10-1) not eligible for autobid
161 Lehigh (8-2)
164 Lafayette (4-6)
178 Holy Cross
180 Bucknell

8. BIG SOUTH — Avg. 165.2
108 Coastal Carolina (10-1)
126 Liberty (7-4)
172 Charleston Southern (10-2)
188 Gardner-Webb (6-5)
232 VMI (2-9)

9. MID-EASTERN — Avg. 165.6
111 Bethune-Cookman (9-2)
129 SC State (8-3)
186 NC A&T (6-4)
200 Hampton (4-7)
202 Howard (5-6)

NORTHEAST
152 Sacred Heart
198 Saint Francis-Pa.
201 Robert Morris
204 Duquesne
205 Bryant

PIONEER
173 San Diego
185 Marist
197 Butler
210 Dayton
218 Drake
 
kurtismichael said:
I'm going to say IdaGriz changes his username to "The Professor".

Seriously though, thank you for all the work you put into this, always enjoy your threads.

After reading all the threads and posts on the playoff possibilities, I really believe there will be 4 BSC teams in and maybe a fifth. I hope they all do some damage in the playoffs to show it was deserved.

This. Idagriz does excellent research, glad it's available. Thanks Ida.
 
oGriz said:
You take the Sagarin Ratings for the top 5 teams in each conference and the Big Sky still comes in fifth, although we're close to 3 and 4.

1. MISSOURI VALLEY — Avg. 81.6
24 North Dakota State (10-0)
86 Northern Iowa (6-5)
91 Youngstown State (8-3)
102 Southern Illinois (6-5)
105 South Dakota State (7-4)

2. COLONIAL — Avg. 86.8
75 Towson (9-2)
78 Villanova (5-5)
79 William & Mary (7-4)
85 Maine (10-1)
117 New Hampshire (6-4)

134 Richmond (5-6)
136 Stony Brook (4-6)
138 James Madison (6-5)
153 Delaware (7-4)

3. SOUTHLAND — Avg. 112.0
71 SE Louisiana (9-2)
92 McNeese State (9-2)
93 Sam Houston State (8-3)
130 Central Arkansas (6-5)
174 Northwestern State (5-6)

4. OHIO VALLEY — Avg. 112.8
43 Eastern Illinois (10-1)
121 Tennessee State (9-3)
123 Jacksonville State (8-3)
131 Tennessee-Martin (7-4)
146 Eastern Kentucky (6-5)

5. BIG SKY — Avg. 114
72 Eastern Washington (9-2)
103 Montana (9-2)
125 Cal Poly (5-6)
133 Northern Arizona (8-2)
137 Montana State (7-4)

157 Southern Utah (8-3)
163 Sacramento State (5-6)
165 Portland State (6-5)

6. SOUTHERN — Avg. 161.8 (excluding Appy State and Georgia Southern)
141 Samford (7-4)
142 Chattanooga (8-3)
168 Furman (6-5)
176 The Citadel (5-6)
182 Wofford (5-5)

7. PATRIOT — Avg. 162
127 Fordham (10-1) not eligible for autobid
161 Lehigh (8-2)
164 Lafayette (4-6)
178 Holy Cross
180 Bucknell

8. BIG SOUTH — Avg. 165.2
108 Coastal Carolina (10-1)
126 Liberty (7-4)
172 Charleston Southern (10-2)
188 Gardner-Webb (6-5)
232 VMI (2-9)

9. MID-EASTERN — Avg. 165.6
111 Bethune-Cookman (9-2)
129 SC State (8-3)
186 NC A&T (6-4)
200 Hampton (4-7)
202 Howard (5-6)

NORTHEAST
152 Sacred Heart
198 Saint Francis-Pa.
201 Robert Morris
204 Duquesne
205 Bryant

PIONEER
173 San Diego
185 Marist
197 Butler
210 Dayton
218 Drake

That the sagarin ratings are so high on NI is enough to be skeptical of the sagarin ratings, UNI won't make the field.
 
Haven't most people already dismissed sagarin rankings this season? I'm pretty sure espn has run many segments on how bad the sagarin rankings are this season
 
Mr. Greenjeans said:
That the sagarin ratings are so high on NI is enough to be skeptical of the sagarin ratings, UNI won't make the field.

And the SRS has UNI at No. 7. Why do you think two systems come to a similar conclusion? UNI gave NDSU it's toughest challenge all year, losing by only one point in Fargo. Three of UNI's losses were in overtime. In years past, a team's record was perhaps the most important selection criteria. That's far less important this year. UNI will beat W Ill Saturday to finish 7-5. All 7 wins were against FCS teams with one FBS win. Just the fact that this year the Committee is saying 6 wins instead of 7 gives you a hint.

It might be a surprise if UNI gets in, but I will be less surprised than you. :)
 
Eriul said:
Haven't most people already dismissed sagarin rankings this season? I'm pretty sure espn has run many segments on how bad the sagarin rankings are this season

If an ESPN commentator has said that, I don't see it in print. The Sagarin ratings are one of the computer ranking components of the BCS. I'm no expert on the BCS and not a fan of the BCS system. But teams have to be picked, both in the FBS and the FCS, just more teams in the FCS.

Nobody but Sagarin knows how his formula is put together, and he has been tweeking his system this fall. He produced an Elo chess system based on the system used internationally to rank chess players. This fall that morphed into an Elo Score system, but is now Pure Elo. With the Elo Score system, several FCS teams became top 10 in that category, and that's what commentators were probably talking about. That component is gone now.

Along with a Predictor calculation, he now has a DIMIN Curve. You can see his explanations of what they are at the top of his calculations.
 
Great analysis - one thing to point out.

Coastal Carolina will likely get an at-large bid (#11 GPI), and Charleston Southern currently has the tie-breaker over them to take the AQ. If Liberty can beat CSU, then CCU would take the AQ and the Big South would be a one-bid conference.
 
Back
Top