Bracket Prediction ***Updated

[oGriz]

I'm guessing they think N Iowa, at 7-5 after a win next weekend, will get in from a tough conference. They recently beat No. 15 Youngstown St., they beat Iowa State, lost at NDSU by a point, and lost 3 games in OT.

 

[zirge]

I think SUU has a good chance of beating NAU at home next weekend. If so, SUU finishes 9-3 with an FBS win and finishes the season 2-0 against top 15 teams. I would have to think that would earn them a playoff bid.

If both the Griz and NAU win, they finish with the same record but NAU wins the head to head. Would the selection committee give the Griz a seed over NAU? I think its tough to make that case for the Griz, I don't see 3 Big Sky teams being seeded (EWU, NAU, UM). Who gets the nod in that case?

If MSU and SUU win next week, who's on the outside looking in? MSU would be 8-4, SUU would be 9-3 with the head to head against MSU. Would SUU get the nod over MSU in that case, or would MSU get some love from the committee? The Big Sky could have 5 teams with playoff records, but I don't see more than 4 BSC teams getting playoff bids.

There is a lot to be determined over the course of the next week!

If both UM and NAU win that will be real interesting to see who gets the seed. NAU beat UM head to head and that could give them the nod over the Griz. On the other hand the Griz will have beat MSU who beat NAU.

If MSU and SUU win next week I think the odd team out might be SUU, going back to that UC Davis loss. MSU will finish higher ranked, I would presume with a better Sagarin as well.

IMO, best scenario for the Griz to get a seed, Griz win and SUU win. Then MSU is out at 7-5, NAU falls to 8-3, SUU gets into the playoffs at 8-3 and Griz land a seed at 10-2.

"If both UM and NAU win that will be real interesting to see who gets the seed. NAU beat UM head to head and that could give them the nod over the Griz. On the other hand the Griz will have beat MSU who beat NAU."

beating nau vicariously through msu is not equal to head to head loss to nau...nau still gets the seed nod imo

 

[oGriz]

FYI, NAU only plays 11 games this year. If NAU and UM win next weekend, UM will be 10-2 and NAU will be 9-2. The factors that may lessen the head-to-head loss to NAU is that it was our first conference game early in the season and it was at NAU.

However, NAU's last game is a rivalry game -- on the road. They always have trouble with SUU.

Last 5 games

2012 SUU 35-29 in Flagstaff
2011 SUU 27-24 in Flagstaff
2010 NAU 26-23 in Cedar City
2009 NAU 42-39 in Flagstaff
2008 NAU 19-14 in Cedar City

 

[oGriz]

Another brackets prediction from NoBowls.com. It basically has NAU in seed instead of Montana.
http://www.nobowls.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

1 North Dakota State, 8 McNeese State Section

Coastal Carolina-William & Mary winner at NDSU
Sam Houston St.-Samford winner at McNeese State

4 Maine, 5 Southeastern Louisiana Section

Charleston Southern-Bethune-Cookman winner at Southeastern Louisiana
Fordham-Sacred Heart winner at Maine

- - - - -

3 Eastern Washington, 6 Towson Section

Montana-South Dakota State winner at Eastern Washington
Delaware-Lehigh winner at Towson

2 Eastern Illinois, 7 Northern Arizona Section

Chattanooga-Southern Utah winner at Northern Arizona
Youngstown State-Butler winner at Eastern Illinois

 

[Montana Gym Rat]

Marist has a better SRS than Butler (10.191 vs 9.475).

Butler has a better GPI than Marist (56.71 vs 59.86).

Butler has 5 better rankings in the GPI CPUs, so they will take the AQ.

 

[zirge]

FYI, NAU only plays 11 games this year. If NAU and UM win next weekend, UM will be 10-2 and NAU will be 9-2. The factors that may lessen the head-to-head loss to NAU is that it was our first conference game early in the season and it was at NAU.

However, NAU's last game is a rivalry game -- on the road. They always have trouble with SUU.

Last 5 games

2012 SUU 35-29 in Flagstaff
2011 SUU 27-24 in Flagstaff
2010 NAU 26-23 in Cedar City
2009 NAU 42-39 in Flagstaff
2008 NAU 19-14 in Cedar City

"The factors that may lessen the head-to-head loss to NAU is that it was our first conference game early in the season and it was at NAU."

i may be wrong but i see this as an excuse not a factor...in other words..so what! it is all the same how can you make a decision based on first or last, when and where..all conference games should all counted equally ie they are all conference games.

 

[oGriz]

zirge: i may be wrong but i see this as an excuse not a factor...in other words..so what! it is all the same how can you make a decision based on first or last, when and where..all conference games should all counted equally ie they are all conference games.

I mostly agree. But strength of schedule does count, and NAU never played EWU, and if they had they would then be 7-3 and looking at finishing 7-4. I think they will finish 8-3.

 

[zirge]

yes strength of schedule is a factor and i see what you are saying.....providing that ew would have beaten nau, which i attend to agree with you......
if ew stays healthy they could give ndsu fits in the nc.....but whoa...i am really getting ahead of myself.