In most basic scenarios, Montana has about a 10% chance of hosting, EWU 12% chance, Sac St. 76% chance. The other 2% is reserved for some weird 3-way tie scenarios still in play.
What Montana needs:
(71% chance winning vs MSU)x(26% chance two Sac St losses)x(54% chance one or more EWU losses)
What Montana needs:
(71% chance winning vs MSU)x(26% chance two Sac St losses)x(54% chance one or more EWU losses)