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UM vs. Michigan NCAA Game Thread
- Thread starter Paytonlives
- Start date
Some thoughts from Michigan fans over at http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard...
* Apparently Montana has the reputation in their league of playing very aggressive physically—lots of hand contact, pushing, bumping, etc. and they get away with it. Might explain their create turnover numbers...
If you subscribe to the theory that physical teams like that have trouble with less forgiving refereeing in the tournament, then Montana will have issues. We'll see.
I'm not taking any game for granted—I've seen a few too many games over the years (going back to the '70s) where talented Michigan teams stumbled against lesser opposition in the tournament.
* With how we've shot from the free throw line, we might hit the bonus early but can we take advantage of it?
* So pretty much, they are Wisconsin..
* Unlike vintage Wisconsin, Montana gets called for a ton of fouls: 21.1 per game, 17th most in D1 hoops.
* This is a favorable matchup for us. Their bigs will have problems with the way we spread the floor. They do play aggressive defense though. In their conference tourney championship they shut down Eastern Washington on 18 of 19 possessions during a stretch in the second half. Z will need to shut down their PG and avoid foul trouble and we should be fine.
* Apparently Montana has the reputation in their league of playing very aggressive physically—lots of hand contact, pushing, bumping, etc. and they get away with it. Might explain their create turnover numbers...
If you subscribe to the theory that physical teams like that have trouble with less forgiving refereeing in the tournament, then Montana will have issues. We'll see.
I'm not taking any game for granted—I've seen a few too many games over the years (going back to the '70s) where talented Michigan teams stumbled against lesser opposition in the tournament.
* With how we've shot from the free throw line, we might hit the bonus early but can we take advantage of it?
* So pretty much, they are Wisconsin..
* Unlike vintage Wisconsin, Montana gets called for a ton of fouls: 21.1 per game, 17th most in D1 hoops.
* This is a favorable matchup for us. Their bigs will have problems with the way we spread the floor. They do play aggressive defense though. In their conference tourney championship they shut down Eastern Washington on 18 of 19 possessions during a stretch in the second half. Z will need to shut down their PG and avoid foul trouble and we should be fine.
hfhmilkman
Member
Greetings. I am a Michigan fan. I'm not sure about others but you will notice a theme with many Michigan fans that they are like me truly interested in analysis and discussion, not trash talking & trolling. Part of the entertainment of being a sports fan is not just rooting for your team but understanding how it works under the hood. There is still enjoyment though bitter in understanding why you lost. Much of this credit goes to mgoblog whose authors have set a high level of analysis over homerism. For those interested in great talk & discussion, you will get a good feel of what the other side really thinks. Now my thoughts.
This is a strange Michigan team in that the expectation even with Beilein's magic this was going to be a down year. Next year was supposed to be the big year and this was just a year to set things up. Even for Beilein standards this is not a team with great in your face talent. What they do very well is play within the Beilein system. They are very patient and will take the shot clock to the end. There is no consistent go to guy. This has manifested in long scoring droughts which are magnified by poor FT shooting. They have been able to weather these situations by Beilein bringing in Luke Yaklich who is a mirror opposite in that he obsesses over defense. The agenda is money ball aka Wisconsin style defense in they funnel you into taking low efficiency shots preferably jump shots inside the 3pt line. As others have mentioned they will hedge hard to not give spot up 3's. This works because their starting backcourt are great on the ball defenders. Combined with a lot of athletic wings, they have generated a very strong defensive team. They rebound the defensive boards like crazy. Combined with a low TO ratio they try to out possess you.
When I look at Michigan I see three vulnerabilities. The first problem is those most likely to drive to the basket are poor FT shooters. A deep team willing to commit fouls can generate free possessions. The second issue that I already mentioned is there is no go to guy. Tournament basketball is a game of emotion and I can easily see these scoring doubts keeping a team around. The third is the low post defenders other then Teske are not that good individually. Combined with UM's aversion to discourage open 3's, a low post game if you have the players can do damage.
The biggest strengths are somewhat converse to the weaknesses. The best perimeter shooters are at the 4 and 5 spots. Big men uncomfortable outside of the paint look bad as UM can draw them out to the perimeter. This is a favorable matchup that often leads to switches. The other huge strength is the perimeter defense is exceptional. It is very difficult to generate good looks on one-on-one action. A team that does not use motion or is guard heavy iso is in a lot of trouble. You pretty much have to depend on some individuals making tough position shot after position shot. The other big strength is the bench does have a lot of depth where the skill set is orthogonal. This gives Beilein the ability to mix & match. If each position was running back in football it is like having a change of pace player at every position.
In my opinion the biggest key will be in the first couple minutes. Wagner is a rather mercurial individual. If he hits his first shot he can often go off. But if he picks up his 1st foul he often gets pulled as you know the 2nd one is coming soon. Even though this is not a great Beilein perimeter team it still lives and dies on the 3. Shooters go cold and you can't have a cold spell when you dunk. But great team defense keeps you in every game. There have been multiple games where UM survived the multi-minute scoring droughts because nothing came easy. For me the tournament is gravy as I never expected this team to come together like it did.
This is a strange Michigan team in that the expectation even with Beilein's magic this was going to be a down year. Next year was supposed to be the big year and this was just a year to set things up. Even for Beilein standards this is not a team with great in your face talent. What they do very well is play within the Beilein system. They are very patient and will take the shot clock to the end. There is no consistent go to guy. This has manifested in long scoring droughts which are magnified by poor FT shooting. They have been able to weather these situations by Beilein bringing in Luke Yaklich who is a mirror opposite in that he obsesses over defense. The agenda is money ball aka Wisconsin style defense in they funnel you into taking low efficiency shots preferably jump shots inside the 3pt line. As others have mentioned they will hedge hard to not give spot up 3's. This works because their starting backcourt are great on the ball defenders. Combined with a lot of athletic wings, they have generated a very strong defensive team. They rebound the defensive boards like crazy. Combined with a low TO ratio they try to out possess you.
When I look at Michigan I see three vulnerabilities. The first problem is those most likely to drive to the basket are poor FT shooters. A deep team willing to commit fouls can generate free possessions. The second issue that I already mentioned is there is no go to guy. Tournament basketball is a game of emotion and I can easily see these scoring doubts keeping a team around. The third is the low post defenders other then Teske are not that good individually. Combined with UM's aversion to discourage open 3's, a low post game if you have the players can do damage.
The biggest strengths are somewhat converse to the weaknesses. The best perimeter shooters are at the 4 and 5 spots. Big men uncomfortable outside of the paint look bad as UM can draw them out to the perimeter. This is a favorable matchup that often leads to switches. The other huge strength is the perimeter defense is exceptional. It is very difficult to generate good looks on one-on-one action. A team that does not use motion or is guard heavy iso is in a lot of trouble. You pretty much have to depend on some individuals making tough position shot after position shot. The other big strength is the bench does have a lot of depth where the skill set is orthogonal. This gives Beilein the ability to mix & match. If each position was running back in football it is like having a change of pace player at every position.
In my opinion the biggest key will be in the first couple minutes. Wagner is a rather mercurial individual. If he hits his first shot he can often go off. But if he picks up his 1st foul he often gets pulled as you know the 2nd one is coming soon. Even though this is not a great Beilein perimeter team it still lives and dies on the 3. Shooters go cold and you can't have a cold spell when you dunk. But great team defense keeps you in every game. There have been multiple games where UM survived the multi-minute scoring droughts because nothing came easy. For me the tournament is gravy as I never expected this team to come together like it did.
That guy got bad info. Not true. Griz not overly physical. Refs in Big Sky call more fouls than in the tourney. UM has lots of fouls because some conference refs blow their whistles at too many little and meaningless things.
"* Apparently Montana has the reputation in their league of playing very aggressive physically—lots of hand contact, pushing, bumping, etc. and they get away with it. Might explain their create turnover numbers...
If you subscribe to the theory that physical teams like that have trouble with less forgiving refereeing in the tournament, then Montana will have issues. We'll see."
"* Apparently Montana has the reputation in their league of playing very aggressive physically—lots of hand contact, pushing, bumping, etc. and they get away with it. Might explain their create turnover numbers...
If you subscribe to the theory that physical teams like that have trouble with less forgiving refereeing in the tournament, then Montana will have issues. We'll see."
Tickets for just the UM game in the Griz section are $110. My son and I are going. Flights and frequent flier options were limited and expensive, to Wichita, Kansas City, Tulsa and Oklahoma City. The worst place for Missoula fans to get too, of the first round games for seeds at UM's level.
ReegsShannon
New member
I'll say that that info came from an Anonymous Big Sky coach. From Brendan Quinn at The Athletic:PlayerRep said:
Doh K, sour grapes. My guess is this came from Jack Murphy.
ReegsShannon said:
Like I said, the info is wrong. That's not how the Griz play defense. They are not "in your chest". They trap and play a very nice defensive scheme. They challenge players coming to the hoop. Ever player buys into it and hustles hard. 7 of the top 8 players are good defenders. UM is a surprisingly athletic team. They also don't get to play any differently than anyone else. My season tickets are in Row 1, across from the bench. I was some of the away games on tv or streaming. I can see how the defense is being played, and I can see how/when fouls are called. As I said, most of the Big Sky refs call way too many fouls. That's why the Griz and other teams rack up so many fouls. Some of the Big Sky refs are just terrible. Brendan Quinn has a bad source.
This doesn't mean the Griz are going to challenge Michigan. But it is highly unlikely that the Griz will lie down.
CleanHOUSE
Well-known member
Michigan visitor guy said:
This give me some hope to be honest! Our biggest weakness is shooting, and height. Teams try and beat us by packing the paint and just daring us to take as many 3's as we want. We were kicking the crap out of Stanford then went to final 10 min with on a few free throws lol. Also we lack height, for being a team built on D we can get burned by the 3 because while you won't get by us, some teams can just shoot over us. We also lack height down low, both our tallest guys are 6'8", but I say height because we don't lack size, our two post players make of for thier lack of height by being bowling ball thick, you can shoot over them but if your post guy is skinny you are not going to move them.
Also you said your team is very good in transition D(Or could have been a different post by Mich Fan kinda responding to a couple post from Mich peeps here), but the griz only try and run off turnovers otherwise they really have no designs on running up and down, since we can't shoot 3's we love to get the ball down low then look for a kick out and slash to rim or 15ft J if initial look isn't there.
You said your team like to force guys inside, but our PG Rorie's best shot is the mid range jumper and our SG Oguine is the best slash in the bigsky and our PF Pridgett is best on offense when he is playing a face up style of game and our two big guys only shoot when under the basket so you won't need to convinces not to run in transition and take 3pt shots.
We might actually match up ok with you guys it seems, but usually it teams that can shoot that can pull off upsets because that can neutralize the size difference, but Moorhead is probably our only guy that could shoot around the arc in practice and hit 15 3's in a row lol.
Our Rotation
PG-Rorie = Super steady bit undersized loves pull J from inside the arc, never gets in foul trouble, rattles every FT but somehow shoot 93%, solid driver, great stamina will play 40min without gettting tired. Is good for about 15pts against anyone, but also not a great shooter so while he's steady he not going to explode for 38pts either. Yeah he's steady not great 3pt shooter but expect about 1of3 to go in.
SG-Oguine = Kinda like our Christian McCaffery just does it all. Really smooth to the hoop easily the best driver of anyone he has been on the court with this year. Great jumper so he loves to hunt rebounds. Not a great shooter, but he can get on a streak, unlike Rorie when he's shooting from 3pt you expect him to go 1-5 or 4-5. While not a great 3pt guy he has improved a lot and likes taking them so he's either going all the way to rim or taking a 3pt....or getting about 10pts of put backs each game lol! BigSky D player of the year although frequently he wont guard really quick type scorers, not that he can't but I think we can't afford to have him in foul trouble so he usually tries to lock down the less athletic scoring option or the guy who plays off the ball.
PF-Moorhead and Pridgett = Moorhead is glue guy who is prone to being up and down can shoot the 3 some nights but can also turn it over and dribble into trouble a lot...he's mainly good on D where his 6'7" can be tough on guards that want to shoot the 3 ball. Pridg is a Pac12 talent who loves to play a face up game and rebound, really strong and under control around the rim
C- Akoh and Kriz = both 6'8" bowling balls that are fundamentally sound, can miss some easy post shots at times cause not terribly skilled and lack touch, but both much improved and by the end of the year really steady. Both pretty ground bound so wont block your shot, instead use weight to keep arms up and don't get moved off spot...we've had some 7fters just shoot over them if they are skilled, but if they are skinny they are going to have a tough time getting close enough to the hoop. These guys love to pass between each other. Both guys you are happy to see go to line, not great but not sad they didn't just get the bucket instead.
Bench guys.
Nicholas = 6'9" Fr C who is most athletic and gifted low post guy we got, just this team demands you play unfaltering D and he picks up a lot of Fr fouls so he tends to see limited minutes if our upperclassmen aren't in foul trouble...also like literally 12/36 from FT line!
Timmy Falls = pretty weak and can be over powered out there at times, but he plays with a lot of energy and confidence (tries to make every pass a highlight to often) and he's got good hops, more often a positive impact or neutral when he comes in.
Team
Love to play slow half court game and work ball low or slash to rim or slash for pull up 15footers. All 8 guys in our rotation can be 15pt guys, nobody that's going to go off for 40 but with this team you are never wishing that the starters come back in because they all have upside to be the guy that day scoring wise.
On D love to extend pressure and double off ball screens and force turnovers, you can shoot over guys but won't get around them and wont get alot of offensive boards
What's interesting about the post from your board is that a lot of people on here think Big Sky officials call a lot of ticky-tack fouls that officials in the big-time conferences would blow off. They say officials in the big-time conferences are more, not less, forgiving.
hfhmilkman
Member
I'm going to just start a clean thread as easier to respond to Cleanhouse. Cleanhouse mentions that Akoh and Kriz are fundamentally sound bowling balls that are solid post defenders but will let teams shoot over them. UM's best perimeter players are the Center Wagner and Duncan Robinson who is more a guard then a stretch 4. But that is what Beilein likes to. The Michigan post game is run completely off the big & roll or the switch. They will not post Wagner unless a team elects to switch and a little guard is on him. Robinson is not a post threat but will occasionally drive on the overplay. This is Robinson's 3rd year in the Big10. Teams really made a point to close out on him. Plus Robinson struggled defensively at the 3. He just cannot hang on the perimeter against Div I talent. His defensive problems leaked into his offense. The key was having Robinson guard the 4 on defense where before it was Charles Mathews. Robinson is no great shakes. In fact mgoblog thought the only hope was for Livers to develop early. He will be very good next year. However, just putting his hands straight up as a six eight skinny guy seems to work. During this big run he is back to his historical average from 3. He is 25-54 from 3 during the 11 game win streak but 44-123 prior.
So a major point of emphasis in my opinion will be to set the 2 big's for 3pt attempts. This will be done via the pick roll if the big man sags instead of hedging hard. If the guard switches on to the center UM will then attempt to set up the post. They don't like to go iso unless the shot clock is running out. Simpson is not a jump shooter. But he gets to the rim with the best.
So a major point of emphasis in my opinion will be to set the 2 big's for 3pt attempts. This will be done via the pick roll if the big man sags instead of hedging hard. If the guard switches on to the center UM will then attempt to set up the post. They don't like to go iso unless the shot clock is running out. Simpson is not a jump shooter. But he gets to the rim with the best.
MissoulaMarinerFan
Well-known member
Agreed, but t still is a terrible draw.GGNez said:
...Another Michigan fan here, looking forward to the game. Since Michigan relies on the 3 so much a cold shooting streak could lead to an upset. Add to that their poor free throw shooting and they are vulnerable. But if their shooting is hot they are hard to beat. One thing that is different this year vs past years is the defense. It has allowed them to overcome a full game of poor shooting vs Iowa and still win (barely), a poor half shooting and still beat Michigan State, and it took two halves of good shooting to beat Purdue.
Another feature of this particular Michigan team is that with the exception of the first Nebraska game where they were worn out they are never out of a game even when they're down by 15-20 points. When they are clicking they can run off a dozen points in no time. And Beilein can make halftime adjustments.
My biggest concern is the long layoff between the conference championship and the tourney. I'm looking forward to a good game, with no injuries.
Another feature of this particular Michigan team is that with the exception of the first Nebraska game where they were worn out they are never out of a game even when they're down by 15-20 points. When they are clicking they can run off a dozen points in no time. And Beilein can make halftime adjustments.
My biggest concern is the long layoff between the conference championship and the tourney. I'm looking forward to a good game, with no injuries.
What a difference in cultures. Michigan and their fans are already debating who they play in Round 2 while Montana fans hope to keep it close. What is it about Montana fans that they believe they are second best? UM has a solid team and knows how to play just like Michigan. I think Montana wins this.
