As fall camp has now drawn to a close I wanted to get together my thoughts on the outlook for this season. While my work has kept me away from most recent practices I thought I’d share some thoughts and the Griz are just a little over 1 week from their first game of the season.
Top 3 reasons for a successful season
1. Jordan Johnson and the skill he has surrounding him. JJ now enters his 3rd year as a starting QB for the Griz, he excelled in last years system and now with another year under his belt it’s showing that he’s only going to be better this year. Add in he’s got most all of his WRs back from last year and younger WRs are starting to emerge like Naccarato, Burke, Rogers, Carlson, and Janssen to add in with Jamaal Jones and hopefully Ellis Henderson at some point. JJ has three good pass catching running backs and a few tall TEs including converted WR Mitch Saylor. This could be one of the better groups a Griz QB has been surrounded with. As long as JJ is given the freedom to play his game and hopefully operate and run things as he reads defenses I think he’ll be able to once again put up huge numbers.
2. The speed and depth of the defense. Teams are going to be very surprised at the improvement in speed and the developed depth of this defense. Safety has 4, maybe 5 guys that can play, corner has at least 3, maybe 4, OLB and MLB is set with 6 guys that will rotate a ton, the D-line is stacked too. I’ve seen seasons before where a team without much depth wears out at the end of games and the end of seasons – because the full load is being thrown on the starters shoulders. As long as the depth is managed properly this defense has a chance to improve on their numbers from last year. Another big upgrade to this defense has been the speed and pass coverage, especially with our OLBs. With all due respect to Tripp and Kanongata’a – I see better overall pass coverage from Gamboa, Van Ack, Schye, and Lebsock. Some of these pass-heavy teams that burned the Griz up last season might not find things to be so easy this season. Putting it together, a defense that can stay fresh through the game better and will be quicker on the field, we’ll see more swarming to the ball, less issues with defenders missing tackles and being out on an island, and all around more efficient play out of this defense.
3. The D-line is incredible. On the field the only loss from last year was Bienemann, who was the fire and passion of the group, although he’s back as a student assistant now – so his presence will still be there on the sideline. Wags is one of the best in the FCS, Holmes is not too far behind him. Takai, Kidder, Rehm, and Peevey in the middle make an incredible 4-man rotation at two spots, and these guys will not only stuff the run but get after the QBs as well. Backing up at d-end we’ve got Crittenden and Johnson as well as improving converted players like Owen and Richards. This D-line is being labeled as one of the best in the FCS, what I hope is that this year they learned a lesson from the season before – where a group widely panned as “the best front 7” in all of the FCS read a few too many press clippings and didn’t really follow through on the field.
Top 3 challenges this season
1. The offensive line. I’m encouraged by the progress of the O-line over the course of the fall but it’s still the biggest unknown and possibly the single most key piece to success this year. The interior line looks to be in good shape with Weyer, the Hines brothers, and Todd – where I’ll bet there’s a lot of rotation. There’s good experience there and I’m awfully curious if Robert Luke might also break through if he’s called up. The tackle situation is delicate, at best. Devon Dietrich has moved to RT and has actually caught the attention of many as he’s improved and showing signs of being a serviceable player, also we should be prepared to see him there all of the season. LT will get better when Schmaing returns, I’m not meaning to knock on Theibes because I think in a few years time he actually could become a great tackle, I’m just not sure if he’s ready to be JJ’s blind-side protector just yet. Thiebes footwork and hands aren’t bad, he seems to get a lot of praise about his pad level and being in the right place at the right time. Gragg clearly wants guys that are better technicians and knowledgeable at their spot than guys that are just burly road-plows. I was thinking Kelly and LaRowe would be ready, but apparently they’re not. I’m not sure how long until Schmaing returns from his appendix issue – his return will vastly help.
2. The kicking game. It sounds like no kicker has been named, recent reports list Lider with the #1s while Greenberg and Sullivan are with the 2s. Greenberg opened camp strong but has been hopped by Lider it seems (if Speltz’s reports are accurate). Lider concerns me, he’s got a history of key misses, including I think 2 or 3 missed PATs last season. If he’s the best we’ve got then it could be another bumpy season. Last year against CCU in the playoffs the Griz had two turnovers on downs due to a lack of confidence in kicking, that could’ve altered the game entirely if they would’ve been able to get points out of those drives. I’m expecting probably another bumpy up and down season from the kickers, I’ll bet all three get their chance this season.
3. The road schedule. @Wyo, @NDSU, @UND, @CPSLO, @ SUU, @EWU. This is the toughest road schedule I’ve seen the Griz have, maybe ever. A 3-3 road record is maybe the best bet we’ll get. The Poly game might’ve lost some luster due to their off-season issues but their defense is still stout and they’ll still be running their crazy offense. We play the #1 and #2 teams both in their houses. We go to Wyo to open the season with a patchwork O-line. SUU was a playoff team last year with a great defense. UND looks to be the only game where the Griz would be heavily favored. This is the one thing that’s largely out of the coaches and players control – except to prepare and show up and do their best. Things happen, some teams may fall off (remember EWU bottomed out and went 0-4 to open the season after their national championship win) but I see a lot of difficult road games here.
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There’s a lot that I like in this team that doesn’t show up in the stat books either. Team chemistry and support is great, there’s a great distribution of talent and upper-classmen leadership in this group. The coaches now are building upon a base offense and defense that’s been established for 2 years on offense and 3 years on defense – they know what needs improvement and where to go with it. In talking with Mike Gerber one day he told me that he sees as much cohesion and talent in this group as he saw in the 2008 and 2009 teams – that’s a great compliment to a group of guys that have really been through a lot of ups and downs. This team isn’t perfect, it’s far from it, but I like this group and I think we’re going to see a lot of improvements this season on some past frustrations as fans. This season will not be without its head-scratchers, angry/upsetting moments, or WTF thoughts, but no season is perfect.
There’s so many variables but assuming what I’ve seen in camp and a season that isn’t decimated by injuries I see a 9-3 Griz team at the end of the regular season. A 6-0 home record and a 3-3 road record. We might be 2-2 just 4 games in but the Griz should have an opportunity to catch fire and get rolling into a strong 2nd half of the season.
I can’t wait for the Wyo game to kick off, I’m looking forward to seeing these guys and to cheering them on. As always, GO GRIZ!
Top 3 reasons for a successful season
1. Jordan Johnson and the skill he has surrounding him. JJ now enters his 3rd year as a starting QB for the Griz, he excelled in last years system and now with another year under his belt it’s showing that he’s only going to be better this year. Add in he’s got most all of his WRs back from last year and younger WRs are starting to emerge like Naccarato, Burke, Rogers, Carlson, and Janssen to add in with Jamaal Jones and hopefully Ellis Henderson at some point. JJ has three good pass catching running backs and a few tall TEs including converted WR Mitch Saylor. This could be one of the better groups a Griz QB has been surrounded with. As long as JJ is given the freedom to play his game and hopefully operate and run things as he reads defenses I think he’ll be able to once again put up huge numbers.
2. The speed and depth of the defense. Teams are going to be very surprised at the improvement in speed and the developed depth of this defense. Safety has 4, maybe 5 guys that can play, corner has at least 3, maybe 4, OLB and MLB is set with 6 guys that will rotate a ton, the D-line is stacked too. I’ve seen seasons before where a team without much depth wears out at the end of games and the end of seasons – because the full load is being thrown on the starters shoulders. As long as the depth is managed properly this defense has a chance to improve on their numbers from last year. Another big upgrade to this defense has been the speed and pass coverage, especially with our OLBs. With all due respect to Tripp and Kanongata’a – I see better overall pass coverage from Gamboa, Van Ack, Schye, and Lebsock. Some of these pass-heavy teams that burned the Griz up last season might not find things to be so easy this season. Putting it together, a defense that can stay fresh through the game better and will be quicker on the field, we’ll see more swarming to the ball, less issues with defenders missing tackles and being out on an island, and all around more efficient play out of this defense.
3. The D-line is incredible. On the field the only loss from last year was Bienemann, who was the fire and passion of the group, although he’s back as a student assistant now – so his presence will still be there on the sideline. Wags is one of the best in the FCS, Holmes is not too far behind him. Takai, Kidder, Rehm, and Peevey in the middle make an incredible 4-man rotation at two spots, and these guys will not only stuff the run but get after the QBs as well. Backing up at d-end we’ve got Crittenden and Johnson as well as improving converted players like Owen and Richards. This D-line is being labeled as one of the best in the FCS, what I hope is that this year they learned a lesson from the season before – where a group widely panned as “the best front 7” in all of the FCS read a few too many press clippings and didn’t really follow through on the field.
Top 3 challenges this season
1. The offensive line. I’m encouraged by the progress of the O-line over the course of the fall but it’s still the biggest unknown and possibly the single most key piece to success this year. The interior line looks to be in good shape with Weyer, the Hines brothers, and Todd – where I’ll bet there’s a lot of rotation. There’s good experience there and I’m awfully curious if Robert Luke might also break through if he’s called up. The tackle situation is delicate, at best. Devon Dietrich has moved to RT and has actually caught the attention of many as he’s improved and showing signs of being a serviceable player, also we should be prepared to see him there all of the season. LT will get better when Schmaing returns, I’m not meaning to knock on Theibes because I think in a few years time he actually could become a great tackle, I’m just not sure if he’s ready to be JJ’s blind-side protector just yet. Thiebes footwork and hands aren’t bad, he seems to get a lot of praise about his pad level and being in the right place at the right time. Gragg clearly wants guys that are better technicians and knowledgeable at their spot than guys that are just burly road-plows. I was thinking Kelly and LaRowe would be ready, but apparently they’re not. I’m not sure how long until Schmaing returns from his appendix issue – his return will vastly help.
2. The kicking game. It sounds like no kicker has been named, recent reports list Lider with the #1s while Greenberg and Sullivan are with the 2s. Greenberg opened camp strong but has been hopped by Lider it seems (if Speltz’s reports are accurate). Lider concerns me, he’s got a history of key misses, including I think 2 or 3 missed PATs last season. If he’s the best we’ve got then it could be another bumpy season. Last year against CCU in the playoffs the Griz had two turnovers on downs due to a lack of confidence in kicking, that could’ve altered the game entirely if they would’ve been able to get points out of those drives. I’m expecting probably another bumpy up and down season from the kickers, I’ll bet all three get their chance this season.
3. The road schedule. @Wyo, @NDSU, @UND, @CPSLO, @ SUU, @EWU. This is the toughest road schedule I’ve seen the Griz have, maybe ever. A 3-3 road record is maybe the best bet we’ll get. The Poly game might’ve lost some luster due to their off-season issues but their defense is still stout and they’ll still be running their crazy offense. We play the #1 and #2 teams both in their houses. We go to Wyo to open the season with a patchwork O-line. SUU was a playoff team last year with a great defense. UND looks to be the only game where the Griz would be heavily favored. This is the one thing that’s largely out of the coaches and players control – except to prepare and show up and do their best. Things happen, some teams may fall off (remember EWU bottomed out and went 0-4 to open the season after their national championship win) but I see a lot of difficult road games here.
------------------------
There’s a lot that I like in this team that doesn’t show up in the stat books either. Team chemistry and support is great, there’s a great distribution of talent and upper-classmen leadership in this group. The coaches now are building upon a base offense and defense that’s been established for 2 years on offense and 3 years on defense – they know what needs improvement and where to go with it. In talking with Mike Gerber one day he told me that he sees as much cohesion and talent in this group as he saw in the 2008 and 2009 teams – that’s a great compliment to a group of guys that have really been through a lot of ups and downs. This team isn’t perfect, it’s far from it, but I like this group and I think we’re going to see a lot of improvements this season on some past frustrations as fans. This season will not be without its head-scratchers, angry/upsetting moments, or WTF thoughts, but no season is perfect.
There’s so many variables but assuming what I’ve seen in camp and a season that isn’t decimated by injuries I see a 9-3 Griz team at the end of the regular season. A 6-0 home record and a 3-3 road record. We might be 2-2 just 4 games in but the Griz should have an opportunity to catch fire and get rolling into a strong 2nd half of the season.
I can’t wait for the Wyo game to kick off, I’m looking forward to seeing these guys and to cheering them on. As always, GO GRIZ!
