Will they take four from Big Sky?

[PlayerRep]

OK fair enough but I already asked the question in a 24 team field who gets in ahead of an 8-4 Griz team??

There's almost too much still up in the air to determine that. Lots and lots of "bubble" teams that still have a chance in some very good conferences.

Lets go conference by conference here. Not saying it'll play out this way and obviously there's a LOT of guesswork being done here... After looking at the schedules left, good wins, and all that stuff for the teams fighting for an at large bid I don't feel very confident that the Griz would get in at 8-4. Of course they could get in at 8-4 too...I'd rather not worry about it though

Big Sky - EWU wins it (just for sake of argument). NAU and MSU get at large bids at 10-2 and 9-3. The Griz are sitting there at 8-4 in 4th place with fingers crossed. There go 2 of the 13 at large bids. Down to 11 left.

CAA - Right now looks like they'll get at least 3 in with 2 at large bids. Delaware, Towson and Maine are likely in. You have JMU and WMU with 3 losses right now, and New Hampshire with 4 losses. Looking at their remaining schedules I could see one of those 3 slipping in with 4 losses (or 3 if JMU or WMU win out). So lets say the CAA gets 4 in. If one did they'd have more "quality" wins than a 4 loss Griz team, since it'd require one of those 3 to beat a very good CAA team (or 2). There go 3 more at large bids. Down to 8 left.

Oh shit, I forgot about the Big South! Right now Coastal Carolina is the favorite for the auto bid. Charleston Southern is 9-1 with their only loss being @Colorado. The Big South had 2 in last year...so I'm guessing they'll eat 1 at large bid. Down to 7 left.

MEAC - One bid league... Bethune-Cookman gets in and that's it. Still have 7 at large bids left.

MVC - North Dakota State wins it. Youngstown State gets an at large (8-1 right now). Illinois State, Southern Illinois and South Dakota State all have 4 losses. Looking at the remaining games Illinois State is likely done (They play NDSU still). SDSU is likely done (They play @Youngstown). Southern Illinois though...they could win out. They have 2 home games and then a road game against a 1-8 team. With the MVC being such a tough conference if Southern Illinois wins out I think they get in. They'd have more "quality" wins than the Griz, and one of their losses would be a close loss to an FBS team. So there go 2 more at large bids. Down to 5 now.

NEC - Who knows who will win this conference... they only get an auto bid though. No at large for them. Still 5 to go.

OVC - This conference is a strange one. LOTS of teams with only 3 losses right now and a 2 loss team going for an at large bid. Last year they only had 1 team in the playoffs and it was a 7-5 team... with 3 of their 3 loss teams being left out. This year it looks like Eastern Illinois will probably win it. Will this conference get an at large bid? I think if Eastern Kentucky wins out (they are hot right now) they probably will get an at large bid and will have more "quality" wins than the Griz. One of their losses is also to an FBS team. So down to 4 at large bids left.

Patriot - f***[*] Fordham.... Yeah some other team will get the auto bid, but Fordham is undefeated right now and will likely eat up an at large bid unless they choke big time to finish the year. So down to 3.

Pioneer - Just the auto bid. No at large. Still at 3 at large bids left.

Southern - It may really help the Griz's chances that the Southern conference is not as strong as it usually is. This year they have Chattanooga in the lead for the conference title right now. They have Wofford and Samford with 3 losses. I'm guessing one of them gets in. Both of them still have to play Chattanooga though...so who knows. Samford looks to have the best shot though since they already beat Wofford and have 2 of their 3 remaining games at home. So down to 2 at large bids left possibly.

Southland - Southeast Louisiana has 2 losses and is in the lead for the conference title right now. We also have McNeese State with 2 losses, and Sam Houston State with 2 losses. Oh shit... there go the last 2 at large bids.

--

Of course there's still a lot of football left to play! It could be the CAA only gets 3 teams. Or maybe Wofford and Samford both get left out in the cold after dropping games to Furman and Chattanooga. Or maybe the OVC gets only 1 in again even if Eastern Kentucky wins out. Who knows... I just know I'd feel a lot more comfortable about the playoffs if we are going into the Griz/Cat game at 9-2 instead of 8-3

Good and helpful analysis. I doubt the CAA get 4 teams in. I'm not sure if it will work out for other MV teams, but I'm fine with giving them a good look. Tough conference this year. OVC is a concern. Not strong, but not completely weak. Samford got beat today. 6-3 with Furman, Chat and Elon to play. Wofford, at 5-3, has Chat, App St and Furman left to play.

 

[ordigger]

OK fair enough but I already asked the question in a 24 team field who gets in ahead of an 8-4 Griz team??

There's almost too much still up in the air to determine that. Lots and lots of "bubble" teams that still have a chance in some very good conferences.

Lets go conference by conference here. Not saying it'll play out this way and obviously there's a LOT of guesswork being done here... After looking at the schedules left, good wins, and all that stuff for the teams fighting for an at large bid I don't feel very confident that the Griz would get in at 8-4. Of course they could get in at 8-4 too...I'd rather not worry about it though

Big Sky - EWU wins it (just for sake of argument). NAU and MSU get at large bids at 10-2 and 9-3. The Griz are sitting there at 8-4 in 4th place with fingers crossed. There go 2 of the 13 at large bids. Down to 11 left.

CAA - Right now looks like they'll get at least 3 in with 2 at large bids. Delaware, Towson and Maine are likely in. You have JMU and WMU with 3 losses right now, and New Hampshire with 4 losses. Looking at their remaining schedules I could see one of those 3 slipping in with 4 losses (or 3 if JMU or WMU win out). So lets say the CAA gets 4 in. If one did they'd have more "quality" wins than a 4 loss Griz team, since it'd require one of those 3 to beat a very good CAA team (or 2). There go 3 more at large bids. Down to 8 left.

Oh shit, I forgot about the Big South! Right now Coastal Carolina is the favorite for the auto bid. Charleston Southern is 9-1 with their only loss being @Colorado. The Big South had 2 in last year...so I'm guessing they'll eat 1 at large bid. Down to 7 left.

MEAC - One bid league... Bethune-Cookman gets in and that's it. Still have 7 at large bids left.

MVC - North Dakota State wins it. Youngstown State gets an at large (8-1 right now). Illinois State, Southern Illinois and South Dakota State all have 4 losses. Looking at the remaining games Illinois State is likely done (They play NDSU still). SDSU is likely done (They play @Youngstown). Southern Illinois though...they could win out. They have 2 home games and then a road game against a 1-8 team. With the MVC being such a tough conference if Southern Illinois wins out I think they get in. They'd have more "quality" wins than the Griz, and one of their losses would be a close loss to an FBS team. So there go 2 more at large bids. Down to 5 now.

NEC - Who knows who will win this conference... they only get an auto bid though. No at large for them. Still 5 to go.

OVC - This conference is a strange one. LOTS of teams with only 3 losses right now and a 2 loss team going for an at large bid. Last year they only had 1 team in the playoffs and it was a 7-5 team... with 3 of their 3 loss teams being left out. This year it looks like Eastern Illinois will probably win it. Will this conference get an at large bid? I think if Eastern Kentucky wins out (they are hot right now) they probably will get an at large bid and will have more "quality" wins than the Griz. One of their losses is also to an FBS team. So down to 4 at large bids left.

Patriot - f***[*] Fordham.... Yeah some other team will get the auto bid, but Fordham is undefeated right now and will likely eat up an at large bid unless they choke big time to finish the year. So down to 3.

Pioneer - Just the auto bid. No at large. Still at 3 at large bids left.

Southern - It may really help the Griz's chances that the Southern conference is not as strong as it usually is. This year they have Chattanooga in the lead for the conference title right now. They have Wofford and Samford with 3 losses. I'm guessing one of them gets in. Both of them still have to play Chattanooga though...so who knows. Samford looks to have the best shot though since they already beat Wofford and have 2 of their 3 remaining games at home. So down to 2 at large bids left possibly.

Southland - Southeast Louisiana has 2 losses and is in the lead for the conference title right now. We also have McNeese State with 2 losses, and Sam Houston State with 2 losses. Oh shit... there go the last 2 at large bids.

--

Of course there's still a lot of football left to play! It could be the CAA only gets 3 teams. Or maybe Wofford and Samford both get left out in the cold after dropping games to Furman and Chattanooga. Or maybe the OVC gets only 1 in again even if Eastern Kentucky wins out. Who knows... I just know I'd feel a lot more comfortable about the playoffs if we are going into the Griz/Cat game at 9-2 instead of 8-3

Big South will only get one bid. Charleston Southern has no quality wins....both ASU and the Citadel are having down years. Coastal Carolina has only one quality win against Eastern KY so there's one back. Winner of their game next week goes, the other doesn't.

 

[Mr. Greenjeans]

Boom, here is where Alphie is just trolling, in present day CFB offense rules, look at the PPG that OR, ALA, or FSU are putting up this year. I just watched FSU crush Miami with an unstoppable O (and turnovers though FSU had more early in the game).

Where Alphie is correct is that NDSU has won with a mistake free but dull offense and a great defense that prevails in close games (sound familiar, see Bobbyball alphie, since you love that approach).

Despite the musings of traditionalists like me run and gun is the future in CFB. Defense can still make a difference but you are talking about giving up 28 versus giving up 14....it is what it is.

Bullshit, it was only 3 or 4 years ago when you morons were saying you cant run 5 wide on offense because defenses have caught up and know how to play defense against it. :roll:

If you play good solid defense you can shut any team down in the country. Its just that only a few teams play defense. NDSU is one of them and if they dont want you to score points they simply wont let you.

Don't take it personally cupcake, how bout that 40 Nick's awesome D gave up to Johnny Football a while back and the shootouts in the SEC this year...while I agree that a solid D will give you a better chance of a W no one is shutting down O this year. D means turnovers. Get the turnovers win the game...pretty simple

 

[PlayerRep]

OK fair enough but I already asked the question in a 24 team field who gets in ahead of an 8-4 Griz team??

There's almost too much still up in the air to determine that. Lots and lots of "bubble" teams that still have a chance in some very good conferences.

Lets go conference by conference here. Not saying it'll play out this way and obviously there's a LOT of guesswork being done here... After looking at the schedules left, good wins, and all that stuff for the teams fighting for an at large bid I don't feel very confident that the Griz would get in at 8-4. Of course they could get in at 8-4 too...I'd rather not worry about it though

Big Sky - EWU wins it (just for sake of argument). NAU and MSU get at large bids at 10-2 and 9-3. The Griz are sitting there at 8-4 in 4th place with fingers crossed. There go 2 of the 13 at large bids. Down to 11 left.

CAA - Right now looks like they'll get at least 3 in with 2 at large bids. Delaware, Towson and Maine are likely in. You have JMU and WMU with 3 losses right now, and New Hampshire with 4 losses. Looking at their remaining schedules I could see one of those 3 slipping in with 4 losses (or 3 if JMU or WMU win out). So lets say the CAA gets 4 in. If one did they'd have more "quality" wins than a 4 loss Griz team, since it'd require one of those 3 to beat a very good CAA team (or 2). There go 3 more at large bids. Down to 8 left.

Oh shit, I forgot about the Big South! Right now Coastal Carolina is the favorite for the auto bid. Charleston Southern is 9-1 with their only loss being @Colorado. The Big South had 2 in last year...so I'm guessing they'll eat 1 at large bid. Down to 7 left.

MEAC - One bid league... Bethune-Cookman gets in and that's it. Still have 7 at large bids left.

MVC - North Dakota State wins it. Youngstown State gets an at large (8-1 right now). Illinois State, Southern Illinois and South Dakota State all have 4 losses. Looking at the remaining games Illinois State is likely done (They play NDSU still). SDSU is likely done (They play @Youngstown). Southern Illinois though...they could win out. They have 2 home games and then a road game against a 1-8 team. With the MVC being such a tough conference if Southern Illinois wins out I think they get in. They'd have more "quality" wins than the Griz, and one of their losses would be a close loss to an FBS team. So there go 2 more at large bids. Down to 5 now.

NEC - Who knows who will win this conference... they only get an auto bid though. No at large for them. Still 5 to go.

OVC - This conference is a strange one. LOTS of teams with only 3 losses right now and a 2 loss team going for an at large bid. Last year they only had 1 team in the playoffs and it was a 7-5 team... with 3 of their 3 loss teams being left out. This year it looks like Eastern Illinois will probably win it. Will this conference get an at large bid? I think if Eastern Kentucky wins out (they are hot right now) they probably will get an at large bid and will have more "quality" wins than the Griz. One of their losses is also to an FBS team. So down to 4 at large bids left.

Patriot - f***[*] Fordham.... Yeah some other team will get the auto bid, but Fordham is undefeated right now and will likely eat up an at large bid unless they choke big time to finish the year. So down to 3.

Pioneer - Just the auto bid. No at large. Still at 3 at large bids left.

Southern - It may really help the Griz's chances that the Southern conference is not as strong as it usually is. This year they have Chattanooga in the lead for the conference title right now. They have Wofford and Samford with 3 losses. I'm guessing one of them gets in. Both of them still have to play Chattanooga though...so who knows. Samford looks to have the best shot though since they already beat Wofford and have 2 of their 3 remaining games at home. So down to 2 at large bids left possibly.

Southland - Southeast Louisiana has 2 losses and is in the lead for the conference title right now. We also have McNeese State with 2 losses, and Sam Houston State with 2 losses. Oh shit... there go the last 2 at large bids.

--

Of course there's still a lot of football left to play! It could be the CAA only gets 3 teams. Or maybe Wofford and Samford both get left out in the cold after dropping games to Furman and Chattanooga. Or maybe the OVC gets only 1 in again even if Eastern Kentucky wins out. Who knows... I just know I'd feel a lot more comfortable about the playoffs if we are going into the Griz/Cat game at 9-2 instead of 8-3

Big South will only get one bid. Charleston Southern has no quality wins....both ASU and the Citadel are having down years. Coastal Carolina has only one quality win against Eastern KY so there's one back. Winner of their game next week goes, the other doesn't.

I hope you're right on both, but I'm not so sure on either.

 

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

Boom, here is where Alphie is just trolling, in present day CFB offense rules, look at the PPG that OR, ALA, or FSU are putting up this year. I just watched FSU crush Miami with an unstoppable O (and turnovers though FSU had more early in the game).

Where Alphie is correct is that NDSU has won with a mistake free but dull offense and a great defense that prevails in close games (sound familiar, see Bobbyball alphie, since you love that approach).

Despite the musings of traditionalists like me run and gun is the future in CFB. Defense can still make a difference but you are talking about giving up 28 versus giving up 14....it is what it is.

Bullshit, it was only 3 or 4 years ago when you morons were saying you cant run 5 wide on offense because defenses have caught up and know how to play defense against it. :roll:

If you play good solid defense you can shut any team down in the country. Its just that only a few teams play defense. NDSU is one of them and if they dont want you to score points they simply wont let you.

Don't take it personally cupcake, how bout that 40 Nick's awesome D gave up to Johnny Football a while back and the shootouts in the SEC this year...while I agree that a solid D will give you a better chance of a W no one is shutting down O this year. D means turnovers. Get the turnovers win the game...pretty simple

You mean Nicks defense that hasn't given up 40 to the last 8 teams they have played combined? :roll: Good call

 

[MrTitleist]

lol.. the Saban thing was hilarious. Give up points in 1 game to one of the top teams in the country then completely smother every other team.

 

[Potomac Griz]

Big South will only get one bid. Charleston Southern has no quality wins....both ASU and the Citadel are having down years. Coastal Carolina has only one quality win against Eastern KY so there's one back. Winner of their game next week goes, the other doesn't.

Big South got in 2 last year... 10-2 Stony Brook & at large bid 8-4 Coastal Carolina.

Charleston Southern has no quality wins true, but neither would the Griz at 8-4 really. Charleston Southern only has 1 loss and it's to an FBS team right now. If 8-4 Coastal Carolina can get in last year with an at-large bid & their only good wins being against 2 MEAC teams (NC A&T and Bethune Cookman), I could see a Charleston Southern getting in at 11-2 (with a loss to Coastal Carolina possibly coming up).

They do get Coastal Carolina at home next week though. If they pull that off and they win the conference then Coastal Carolina is looking like an at-large team, and they do have a quality win over Eastern Kentucky.

That conference could end up with Coastal Carolina being 11-1 (only loss being @ FBS South Carolina), or 10-2 with losses @ South Carolina and @Charleston Southern, and Charleston Southern being 12-1 or 11-2.

We've seen teams snubbed before that had good records in tough conferences in favor of teams in mediocre conferences. Like 8-3 NAU not getting in last year, but 8-4 Coastal Carolina getting in. Hopefully you're right & they don't eat up an at large bid this year if the Griz do go 8-4.

 

[funny water]

lol.. the Saban thing was hilarious. Give up points in 1 game to one of the top teams in the country then completely smother every other team.

You are just trying to keep this from escalating..... we all know how well that works for you....

 

[poiuyter]

I will bet anybody any amount that NAU will NOT have 10 wins in the regular season.

 

[Potomac Griz]

I will bet anybody any amount that NAU will NOT have 10 wins in the regular season.

Good catch (fixed my earlier post). Yeah NAU only has 11 games, so 9-2 is more likely than somehow them being awarded a win in a game they previously lost

 

[BakunLT]

No matter how good your D is it only takes 1 or 2 supreme players on the opposing offense to beat the D. Have seen it multiple times in college football.

Damit i wan't to have a good defense ray:

 

[poiuyter]

This year could have a team with a losing record in the playoffs.

 

[poiuyter]

This year could have a team with a losing record in the playoffs.

 

[BakunLT]

-1

Double post :bad:

 

[Potomac Griz]

This year could have a team with a losing record in the playoffs.

True, the Patriot league could send a team with a losing record to the playoffs with the auto-bid this year if it's Colgate or Lafayette. Hopefully it'll be Lehigh though so at least it'll be a team that has a decent record.

Right now Lafayette is 3-0 in conference, Colgate is 2-1 and Lehigh is 1-1. If Colgate gets in they'll likely be 5-7 overall. If Lafayette wins the conference they'll likely be 5-6 overall. If Lehigh wins out (beating both Colgate and Lafayette in upcoming games) they'll be 9-2.

 

[Tokyogriz]

They need UM and any other teams with more than 4000 fans that come to games to be in the playoffs to pay for the damn thing.

Playoffs in FCS are a money pit and without UM, App, Deleware etc the FCS playoffs have no future period.

UM gets in if even remotely possible.

 

[Robsnotes4u]

There are teams in the bottom half of the top 25 with .500 records and below!!!!! The Griz WILL get in with an 8-4 season, but will go 9-3 (lose to either MSU or USD but not both). Looking at the bottom half of the top 25 though, who gets in over an 8-4 Griz team? Throw some names out there. Here is a list of teams currently ranked below us to think about. Do you think all of these teams will finish the rest of their season undefeated? I don't......So which of them with one or two more losses gets in ahead of us?

No. 13 Bethune-Cookman (8-1, 5-0 MEAC)
No. 14 Northern Arizona (7-2, 5-1 Big Sky)
No. 15 Samford (6-3, 4-1)
No. 16 New Hampshire (4-4, 3-2)
No. 17 Wofford (5-3)
No. 18 Central Arkansas (5-4, 2-2)
No. 19 South Dakota State (5-4)
No. 20 Villanova (4-5, 3-3)
No. 21 Delaware (7-1, 4-1 CAA)
No. 22 Lehigh (6-2)
No. 23 Tennessee State (7-3, 4-2)
No. 24 Charleston Southern (9-1, 2-0 Big South)
No. 25 Southeastern Louisiana (7-2, 4-0)

Polls do not have any gearing in the selection process anymore.

http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2013/09/11/in-fcs-huddle-nothing-simple-about-fcs-playoff-selections/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



While the expansion of the FCS playoffs by four teams this season has been met with open arms nationally, the less-publicized addition of a ratings system for the NCAA selection committee to use in picking its field has been embraced with a sense of enthusiasm, if not relief, across the FCS.

The Simple Rating System, or SRS, is similar to the RPI system used in college basketball and will quantify the strength of a team's schedule. Its use will help lead to a more concrete selection of at-large qualifiers, which will rise by three to 13 in the new 24-team field. The additional bid for the Pioneer Football League champion brings the number of conference champions to 11.

"It's been long overdue in my opinion. I think you'd find that is the consensus with our coaches," said coach Clint Conque of eighth-ranked Central Arkansas

One of the main reasons, according to coach Mark Farley of seventh-ranked Northern Iowa, is "probably the biggest deficiency right now in FCS is the difference in schedules. There's a lot of (teams) that are getting automatic bids that maybe don't play as strong of leagues or strong of schedules" as a conference like Farley's, the Missouri Valley Football Conference, which is home to North Dakota State, the reigning two-time FCS national champion.

The SRS will factor in all of a team's games against FCS, FBS and Division II competition. In past years, a game against a Division II opponent did not count toward a team's resume.

But the new system will incorporate them into the equation and rightfully differentiate the levels of wins, including both home and away, which will provide a true strength of schedule tool. It will be recalculated on a weekly basis through the final regular-season games on Nov. 23 and the announcement of the playoff field the next morning.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

Where in that article does it say that the ranking will not be considered at the end of the season? Is the system used on a weekly basis to help determine a teams rank, or just at the end of the season to determine playoff eligibility? If a team is currently ranked, don't you think the coaches at least consider strength of schedule when determining where to rank them?

Their ranking due to SRS yes, the polls you see no. Totally different.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

 

[Montana Gym Rat]

The SRS is in a test period this year. It's an attempt to simplify the selection rankings, much like the RPI.

SRS is composed of two components:

1) Average Margin of Victory (with tweaks to dampen blowouts). Note that there is also a 3 point MOV shift - positive for road teams, and negative for home teams.

2) Strength of Schedule. This is the average of all of a team's opponents' MOV.

These two pieces are added together to arrive at the SRS. Montana's current MOV is 14.111 and their SOS is 25.809. So their total SRS is 39.920. This currently ranks #16 in FCS.


The nice thing about SRS, is you only need to know the results of the games and where the games were played to develop the ranking. Just like how RPI is developed. The tricky piece is that the SRS requires an iterative calculation since SOS is dependent upon opponents' SRS - which is dependent upon other opponents' SRS. Kind of a neat approach as it intertwines all collegiate football games no matter the level. (Carroll has an SRS of 24.692 for comparison)

It will be interesting to see what kind of outliers may crop up out of the SRS compared to the GPI which has traditionally been used.