Will they take four from Big Sky?

[Potomac Griz]

I don't think 8-4 gets the Griz in. They would be only 7-4 against Div. 1 teams and have zero wins, like last year, against a quality opponent (i.e. a team with a winning record against Div. 1 teams.) This is assuming the two losses would come against South Dakota (who is much improved and tough at home) and the cats.

PSU currently has a winning record

They are 3-4 against D1 opponents.

 

[Hammer]

I don't think 8-4 gets the Griz in. They would be only 7-4 against Div. 1 teams and have zero wins, like last year, against a quality opponent (i.e. a team with a winning record against Div. 1 teams.) This is assuming the two losses would come against South Dakota (who is much improved and tough at home) and the cats.

OK fair enough but I already asked the question in a 24 team field who gets in ahead of an 8-4 Griz team??

 

[IdaGriz01]

No team in the BSC SHOULD get in the playoffs..............nobody plays defense.

Certainly the BSC does not seem to have any defensive powerhouses. But does that apply any more (aside from the obvious case of NDSU)?

I just calculated the average winning score for the games involving the top-ranked teams outside the Big Sky (ranked #2-11, since NDSU was idle). The average winning score was almost 40 ppg (39.9) ... but the losers scored almost 27 (26.6). While the margin was certainly decisive, the winners were not exactly shutting down the opposition. Worst case example: Sam Houston State (#8) won ... but they gave up 49 points. Youngstown State (#11) won, but gave up 34. The only defensive struggle was Maine over Stony Brook, 19-14.

I'm not saying the BSC will/should get four teams into the playoffs. But lack of defensive ability does not seem to be an over-riding factor.

 

[PlayerRep]

If we lose two of our final three, my logic is that we will still be in the top 24, and probably still a lock for the playoffs. So long as we are eligible I think were in, and will probably have a home game. Us hosting a game in the playoffs is big money, and helps our chances. Same with MSU now.

No...lose two of the last 3 we ain't going, simple as that. Solution is win out and we're in. :thumb:

So 8-4 in the 24 team playoff we don't get in??

You are high. Please tell me what teams get in before an 8-4 Montana team. Lets hear it!

Agreed. 8-4 if not assured, of course. But look at who is going to have a better record and get in. Do some homework.

 

[Mr. Greenjeans]

I don't think 8-4 gets the Griz in. They would be only 7-4 against Div. 1 teams and have zero wins, like last year, against a quality opponent (i.e. a team with a winning record against Div. 1 teams.) This is assuming the two losses would come against South Dakota (who is much improved and tough at home) and the cats.

Exactly, SD has played some excellent teams and lost some close decisions, it would be a valuable W and if we beat Weber (which we should) I think we're in no matter what the result of the cat game.

Win them all and it doesn't matter.

 

[PlayerRep]

Big Sky = WAC of FCS.

The Big Sky is a power conference. The Big Sky's rating is not great, only because of No Colo, ISU and Weber. Beyond that, there are 10 strong or pretty good teams. No other conference has as many strong teams in the top 6 or 8.

Egriz posters, feel free to point out which conference has 6 or 8 stronger teams than than the Big Sky. Can't wait to see your analysis on that.

 

[Walkon79]

No team in the BSC SHOULD get in the playoffs..............nobody plays defense.

Extreme? But I have to agree tonight.

We can't play with NDSU right now


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[hm.grwn.grizfan]

There are teams in the bottom half of the top 25 with .500 records and below!!!!! The Griz WILL get in with an 8-4 season, but will go 9-3 (lose to either MSU or USD but not both). Looking at the bottom half of the top 25 though, who gets in over an 8-4 Griz team? Throw some names out there. Here is a list of teams currently ranked below us to think about. Do you think all of these teams will finish the rest of their season undefeated? I don't......So which of them with one or two more losses gets in ahead of us?

No. 13 Bethune-Cookman (8-1, 5-0 MEAC)
No. 14 Northern Arizona (7-2, 5-1 Big Sky)
No. 15 Samford (6-3, 4-1)
No. 16 New Hampshire (4-4, 3-2)
No. 17 Wofford (5-3)
No. 18 Central Arkansas (5-4, 2-2)
No. 19 South Dakota State (5-4)
No. 20 Villanova (4-5, 3-3)
No. 21 Delaware (7-1, 4-1 CAA)
No. 22 Lehigh (6-2)
No. 23 Tennessee State (7-3, 4-2)
No. 24 Charleston Southern (9-1, 2-0 Big South)
No. 25 Southeastern Louisiana (7-2, 4-0)

 

[ordigger]

8-4 will probably get us in too. Why? Go look at the other conferences. There is simply not enough teams that will be better than than. Take for example the Missouri Valley....only two teams will probably be 8-4 overall or better (NDSU & YSU). Southern Illinois has a shot, but most believe the MVC is the best conference in the land....to take at least 3 for that league they will have to dip to a 7-5 school.

 

[Mr. Greenjeans]

No team in the BSC SHOULD get in the playoffs..............nobody plays defense.

Certainly the BSC does not seem to have any defensive powerhouses. But does that apply any more (aside from the obvious case of NDSU)?

I just calculated the average winning score for the games involving the top-ranked teams outside the Big Sky (ranked #2-11, since NDSU was idle). The average winning score was almost 40 ppg (39.9) ... but the losers scored almost 27 (26.6). While the margin was certainly decisive, the winners were not exactly shutting down the opposition. Worst case example: Sam Houston State (#8) won ... but they gave up 49 points. Youngstown State (#11) won, but gave up 34. The only defensive struggle was Maine over Stony Brook, 19-14.

I'm not saying the BSC will/should get four teams into the playoffs. But lack of defensive ability does not seem to be an over-riding factor.

Boom, here is where Alphie is just trolling, in present day CFB offense rules, look at the PPG that OR, ALA, or FSU are putting up this year. I just watched FSU crush Miami with an unstoppable O (and turnovers though FSU had more early in the game).

Where Alphie is correct is that NDSU has won with a mistake free but dull offense and a great defense that prevails in close games (sound familiar, see Bobbyball alphie, since you love that approach).

Despite the musings of traditionalists like me run and gun is the future in CFB. Defense can still make a difference but you are talking about giving up 28 versus giving up 14....it is what it is.

 

[Robsnotes4u]

There are teams in the bottom half of the top 25 with .500 records and below!!!!! The Griz WILL get in with an 8-4 season, but will go 9-3 (lose to either MSU or USD but not both). Looking at the bottom half of the top 25 though, who gets in over an 8-4 Griz team? Throw some names out there. Here is a list of teams currently ranked below us to think about. Do you think all of these teams will finish the rest of their season undefeated? I don't......So which of them with one or two more losses gets in ahead of us?

No. 13 Bethune-Cookman (8-1, 5-0 MEAC)
No. 14 Northern Arizona (7-2, 5-1 Big Sky)
No. 15 Samford (6-3, 4-1)
No. 16 New Hampshire (4-4, 3-2)
No. 17 Wofford (5-3)
No. 18 Central Arkansas (5-4, 2-2)
No. 19 South Dakota State (5-4)
No. 20 Villanova (4-5, 3-3)
No. 21 Delaware (7-1, 4-1 CAA)
No. 22 Lehigh (6-2)
No. 23 Tennessee State (7-3, 4-2)
No. 24 Charleston Southern (9-1, 2-0 Big South)
No. 25 Southeastern Louisiana (7-2, 4-0)

Polls do not have any gearing in the selection process anymore.

http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2013/09/11/in-fcs-huddle-nothing-simple-about-fcs-playoff-selections/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



While the expansion of the FCS playoffs by four teams this season has been met with open arms nationally, the less-publicized addition of a ratings system for the NCAA selection committee to use in picking its field has been embraced with a sense of enthusiasm, if not relief, across the FCS.

The Simple Rating System, or SRS, is similar to the RPI system used in college basketball and will quantify the strength of a team's schedule. Its use will help lead to a more concrete selection of at-large qualifiers, which will rise by three to 13 in the new 24-team field. The additional bid for the Pioneer Football League champion brings the number of conference champions to 11.

"It's been long overdue in my opinion. I think you'd find that is the consensus with our coaches," said coach Clint Conque of eighth-ranked Central Arkansas

One of the main reasons, according to coach Mark Farley of seventh-ranked Northern Iowa, is "probably the biggest deficiency right now in FCS is the difference in schedules. There's a lot of (teams) that are getting automatic bids that maybe don't play as strong of leagues or strong of schedules" as a conference like Farley's, the Missouri Valley Football Conference, which is home to North Dakota State, the reigning two-time FCS national champion.

The SRS will factor in all of a team's games against FCS, FBS and Division II competition. In past years, a game against a Division II opponent did not count toward a team's resume.

But the new system will incorporate them into the equation and rightfully differentiate the levels of wins, including both home and away, which will provide a true strength of schedule tool. It will be recalculated on a weekly basis through the final regular-season games on Nov. 23 and the announcement of the playoff field the next morning.

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[ordigger]

With 24 spots.....11 go to auto qualifiers.

That leaves 13 at-large bids

The "power conferences" will get at least two each

CAA, Big Sky, Southern, OVC, MVC, Southland

That leaves 7 more bids.....which will all come from the 6 power conferences.

 

[MrTitleist]

Big Sky = WAC of FCS.

The Big Sky is a power conference. The Big Sky's rating is not great, only because of No Colo, ISU and Weber. Beyond that, there are 10 strong or pretty good teams. No other conference has as many strong teams in the top 6 or 8.

Egriz posters, feel free to point out which conference has 6 or 8 stronger teams than than the Big Sky. Can't wait to see your analysis on that.

I meant, we don't play defense in this conference.

Also, I'd argue that the CAA is as strong or stronger than the Big Sky. Though, the BSC and CAA are the only two "big" conferences in FCS. The rest of the conferences are are much smaller with much lower profile schools. MVC is the only one that comes close to the top two conferences. BSC and CAA are the SEC and Pac12 of FCS.. often times it feels like these two conferences don't belong in FCS because of the quality of schools involved in them (except UNC, ISU, Weber, Rhode Island and Albany).

 

[Zirg]

I don't know if South Dakota is "improved" or not, but they are 4-5. They've won their 3 home games (and a loss) by 3 points each over non-playoff teams UC-Davis,Missouri State, and Indiana State. Indiana State is 0-8 vs D-1 teams including loses of 41,46 and 43 in the 3 weeks after the South Dakota game. Missouri State was 1-5 after their close loss at SD. This is not an acceptable team to lose to for a playoff team.

If they can't beat South Dakota and Weber, they have no business being in the playoffs.

 

[hm.grwn.grizfan]

There are teams in the bottom half of the top 25 with .500 records and below!!!!! The Griz WILL get in with an 8-4 season, but will go 9-3 (lose to either MSU or USD but not both). Looking at the bottom half of the top 25 though, who gets in over an 8-4 Griz team? Throw some names out there. Here is a list of teams currently ranked below us to think about. Do you think all of these teams will finish the rest of their season undefeated? I don't......So which of them with one or two more losses gets in ahead of us?

No. 13 Bethune-Cookman (8-1, 5-0 MEAC)
No. 14 Northern Arizona (7-2, 5-1 Big Sky)
No. 15 Samford (6-3, 4-1)
No. 16 New Hampshire (4-4, 3-2)
No. 17 Wofford (5-3)
No. 18 Central Arkansas (5-4, 2-2)
No. 19 South Dakota State (5-4)
No. 20 Villanova (4-5, 3-3)
No. 21 Delaware (7-1, 4-1 CAA)
No. 22 Lehigh (6-2)
No. 23 Tennessee State (7-3, 4-2)
No. 24 Charleston Southern (9-1, 2-0 Big South)
No. 25 Southeastern Louisiana (7-2, 4-0)

Polls do not have any gearing in the selection process anymore.

http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2013/09/11/in-fcs-huddle-nothing-simple-about-fcs-playoff-selections/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



While the expansion of the FCS playoffs by four teams this season has been met with open arms nationally, the less-publicized addition of a ratings system for the NCAA selection committee to use in picking its field has been embraced with a sense of enthusiasm, if not relief, across the FCS.

The Simple Rating System, or SRS, is similar to the RPI system used in college basketball and will quantify the strength of a team's schedule. Its use will help lead to a more concrete selection of at-large qualifiers, which will rise by three to 13 in the new 24-team field. The additional bid for the Pioneer Football League champion brings the number of conference champions to 11.

"It's been long overdue in my opinion. I think you'd find that is the consensus with our coaches," said coach Clint Conque of eighth-ranked Central Arkansas

One of the main reasons, according to coach Mark Farley of seventh-ranked Northern Iowa, is "probably the biggest deficiency right now in FCS is the difference in schedules. There's a lot of (teams) that are getting automatic bids that maybe don't play as strong of leagues or strong of schedules" as a conference like Farley's, the Missouri Valley Football Conference, which is home to North Dakota State, the reigning two-time FCS national champion.

The SRS will factor in all of a team's games against FCS, FBS and Division II competition. In past years, a game against a Division II opponent did not count toward a team's resume.

But the new system will incorporate them into the equation and rightfully differentiate the levels of wins, including both home and away, which will provide a true strength of schedule tool. It will be recalculated on a weekly basis through the final regular-season games on Nov. 23 and the announcement of the playoff field the next morning.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

Where in that article does it say that the ranking will not be considered at the end of the season? Is the system used on a weekly basis to help determine a teams rank, or just at the end of the season to determine playoff eligibility? If a team is currently ranked, don't you think the coaches at least consider strength of schedule when determining where to rank them?

 

[mcg]

I don't know if South Dakota is "improved" or not, but they are 4-5. They've won their 3 home games (and a loss) by 3 points each over non-playoff teams UC-Davis,Missouri State, and Indiana State. Indiana State is 0-8 vs D-1 teams including loses of 41,46 and 43 in the 3 weeks after the South Dakota game. Missouri State was 1-5 after their close loss at SD. This is not an acceptable team to lose to for a playoff team.

If they can't beat South Dakota and Weber, they have no business being in the playoffs.

That's pretty much it right there.

 

[Mr. Greenjeans]

I don't know if South Dakota is "improved" or not, but they are 4-5. They've won their 3 home games (and a loss) by 3 points each over non-playoff teams UC-Davis,Missouri State, and Indiana State. Indiana State is 0-8 vs D-1 teams including loses of 41,46 and 43 in the 3 weeks after the South Dakota game. Missouri State was 1-5 after their close loss at SD. This is not an acceptable team to lose to for a playoff team.

If they can't beat South Dakota and Weber, they have no business being in the playoffs.

Can't argue with that at all.

 

[NikeGrizz]

Big sky = Big 12 all offense no defense

 

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

Boom, here is where Alphie is just trolling, in present day CFB offense rules, look at the PPG that OR, ALA, or FSU are putting up this year. I just watched FSU crush Miami with an unstoppable O (and turnovers though FSU had more early in the game).

Where Alphie is correct is that NDSU has won with a mistake free but dull offense and a great defense that prevails in close games (sound familiar, see Bobbyball alphie, since you love that approach).

Despite the musings of traditionalists like me run and gun is the future in CFB. Defense can still make a difference but you are talking about giving up 28 versus giving up 14....it is what it is.

Bullshit, it was only 3 or 4 years ago when you morons were saying you cant run 5 wide on offense because defenses have caught up and know how to play defense against it. :roll:

If you play good solid defense you can shut any team down in the country. Its just that only a few teams play defense. NDSU is one of them and if they dont want you to score points they simply wont let you.

 

[Potomac Griz]

OK fair enough but I already asked the question in a 24 team field who gets in ahead of an 8-4 Griz team??

There's almost too much still up in the air to determine that. Lots and lots of "bubble" teams that still have a chance in some very good conferences.

Lets go conference by conference here. Not saying it'll play out this way and obviously there's a LOT of guesswork being done here... After looking at the schedules left, good wins, and all that stuff for the teams fighting for an at large bid I don't feel very confident that the Griz would get in at 8-4. Of course they could get in at 8-4 too...I'd rather not worry about it though

Big Sky - EWU wins it (just for sake of argument). NAU and MSU get at large bids at 9-2 and 9-3. The Griz are sitting there at 8-4 in 4th place with fingers crossed. There go 2 of the 13 at large bids. Down to 11 left.

CAA - Right now looks like they'll get at least 3 in with 2 at large bids. Delaware, Towson and Maine are likely in. You have JMU and WMU with 3 losses right now, and New Hampshire with 4 losses. Looking at their remaining schedules I could see one of those 3 slipping in with 4 losses (or 3 if JMU or WMU win out). So lets say the CAA gets 4 in. If one did they'd have more "quality" wins than a 4 loss Griz team, since it'd require one of those 3 to beat a very good CAA team (or 2). There go 3 more at large bids. Down to 8 left.

Oh shit, I forgot about the Big South! Right now Coastal Carolina is the favorite for the auto bid. Charleston Southern is 9-1 with their only loss being @Colorado. The Big South had 2 in last year...so I'm guessing they'll eat 1 at large bid. Down to 7 left.

MEAC - One bid league... Bethune-Cookman gets in and that's it. Still have 7 at large bids left.

MVC - North Dakota State wins it. Youngstown State gets an at large (8-1 right now). Illinois State, Southern Illinois and South Dakota State all have 4 losses. Looking at the remaining games Illinois State is likely done (They play NDSU still). SDSU is likely done (They play @Youngstown). Southern Illinois though...they could win out. They have 2 home games and then a road game against a 1-8 team. With the MVC being such a tough conference if Southern Illinois wins out I think they get in. They'd have more "quality" wins than the Griz, and one of their losses would be a close loss to an FBS team. So there go 2 more at large bids. Down to 5 now.

NEC - Who knows who will win this conference... they only get an auto bid though. No at large for them. Still 5 to go.

OVC - This conference is a strange one. LOTS of teams with only 3 losses right now and a 2 loss team going for an at large bid. Last year they only had 1 team in the playoffs and it was a 7-5 team... with 3 of their 3 loss teams being left out. This year it looks like Eastern Illinois will probably win it. Will this conference get an at large bid? I think if Eastern Kentucky wins out (they are hot right now) they probably will get an at large bid and will have more "quality" wins than the Griz. One of their losses is also to an FBS team. So down to 4 at large bids left.

Patriot - Fucking Fordham.... Yeah some other team will get the auto bid, but Fordham is undefeated right now and will likely eat up an at large bid unless they choke big time to finish the year. So down to 3.

Pioneer - Just the auto bid. No at large. Still at 3 at large bids left.

Southern - It may really help the Griz's chances that the Southern conference is not as strong as it usually is. This year they have Chattanooga in the lead for the conference title right now. They have Wofford and Samford with 3 losses. I'm guessing one of them gets in. Both of them still have to play Chattanooga though...so who knows. Samford looks to have the best shot though since they already beat Wofford and have 2 of their 3 remaining games at home. So down to 2 at large bids left possibly.

Southland - Southeast Louisiana has 2 losses and is in the lead for the conference title right now. We also have McNeese State with 2 losses, and Sam Houston State with 2 losses. Oh shit... there go the last 2 at large bids.

--

Of course there's still a lot of football left to play! It could be the CAA only gets 3 teams. Or maybe Wofford and Samford both get left out in the cold after dropping games to Furman and Chattanooga. Or maybe the OVC gets only 1 in again even if Eastern Kentucky wins out. Who knows... I just know I'd feel a lot more comfortable about the playoffs if we are going into the Griz/Cat game at 9-2 instead of 8-3