UNDfan said:
billings_poke said:
TCU has no shot at the Big East. too Remote.
I agree Big East raids CUSA. But they also added UCONN from 1AA as well. They may add APPY state. They have a lot of options that are closer than TCU. ECU and Memphis or even Southern Miss would go first. They may also lose Pitt to BIG 10 like some say they will and not missouri. Navy may also get a look.
I just don't see your scenario as a possibility. Nobody wants to join CUSA, especially without Memphis and ECU, except LA tech which would cost the WAC another member. Tension could be high as about 3 Western schools could be left with no conference.
Do the math
If the MWC loses 2 and then adds 5 to expand to 12 then they merge with 5 of the WAC members. That leaves 3 WAC members looking for a home. (assuming LA Tech goes to CUSA).
One western FBS conference could very well cease to exist as the MWC and WAC merges.
Biggest risk is Hawaii, New Mexico State, and Idaho to lose out.
With Texas talking with the Big 10, practically anything is possible.
With some of the conference changes lining up, it almost makes Montana's move to FBS inevitable.
Utah and Colorado to Pac10
Missouri, Texas, Syracuse to Big 10
BYU, TCU, Colorado St to Big 12
Boise St, Nevada, Fresno St, Hawaii to MWC
The WAC is left with: San Jose St, Idaho, N Mex St, Utah St
At a minimum, Montana, UCDavis, CalPoly, and Sac St join the WAC.
Montana would be a first-tier power in a new WAC. If Montana had joined a WAC with Boise St, Fresno, Hawaii, the Griz would have been in a second tier, making a move too risky.
UNDfan...with your scenario, you have the Big 10 expanding to 14 teams. That is not going to happen. I think the Big East will take a FCS team...Villanova. They are already Big East in every other sport. Here is how I see things shaking out. This scenario eliminates the Sun Belt, has 10 12-team conferences, with Notre Dame, Army, and Navy remaining independent.
- Pitt goes to the Big 10...logical fit geographically, academically, and athletically.
- PAC-10 forced to expand takes Utah and Colorado...SLC and Denver TV markets.
- The Big 12 gets Arkansas...renews old SWC rivals, better chance to win in the Big 12
- SEC takes Louisville...solid basketball, middle of the road SEC football, solid baseball, competitive in many sports, rivals with Kentucky, fit geographically.
- Big East would be down to 6 adds 'Nova, ECU, UCF, Memphis, Temple, and if ND says no (which is likely), they go with Marshall. (For Bball: Temple stays A-10, ECU & Marshall move to A-10 to keep Big East at 16 teams with the addition of Memphis and UCF who has spent at ton upgrading facilities)
- MWC (down to 8 with loss of Utah) adds Boise St and Fresno St from the WAC as well as 2 from CUSA (Houston, Tulsa, and/or SMU)...for the example below I'll use Tulsa and SMU.
- WAC (down to 5) goes after UL-Monroe, North Texas, Arkansas St and UL-Lafayette from the Sun Belt (WAC already has LA Tech), they also take 1 team from the Big Sky: Montana
- C-USA (down 6: 4 to the Big East, 2 to the MWC) takes Troy, WKU, MTSU, FAU, FIU from the Sun Belt, as well as Appy St from 1-AA.
- ACC would not have any membership changes as it just had a drastic expansion, but I think it realigns.
- MAC remains the same, with the exception of losing Temple
Here is what the conferences would then look like:
ACC:
FSU, Miami, GT, Clemson, Wake Forest, Duke
BC, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, NCSU
Big Ten:
Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue
Pitt, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana
Big East:
Rutgers, UConn, Syracuse, Temple, Villanova, West Virginia
UCF, Memphis, USF, Cincinnati, ECU, Marshall
PAC 10:
Utah, Colorado, Arizona, Arizona St, UCLA, USC
Washington, Washington St, Oregon, Oregon St, Stanford, Cal
Big 12:
Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St
Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Nebraska
SEC:
Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Georgia, florida
Louisville, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn
MWC:
Boise State, Fresno State, BYU, UNLV, San Diego State, Wyoming
Tulsa, SMU, TCU, New Mexico, Air Force, Colorado State
WAC:
Louisiana Tech, UL-Monroe, UL-Lafayette, Arkansas State, North Texas, New Mexico State
Nevada, Idaho, Hawaii, Utah State, San Jose State, Montana
Conference USA:
Troy, MTSU, FAU, FIU, UAB, Appy State
UTEP, Houston, Rice, Tulane, Southern Miss, W. Kentucky
MAC:
W. Michigan, C. Michigan, E. Michigan, N. Illinois, Toledo, Ball State
Ohio, Buffalo, Kent State, Bowling Green, Akron, Miami (OH)