Upset Guesses (Oct 26)

[IdaGriz01]

Next weekend features four matchups between ranked teams, plus intriguing games for two other ranked teams.

Right at the top, we have two one-loss teams going at it. Both teams lost to an opponent that is now ranked -- but Eastern lost to FBS Northern Illinois, while Tennessee State lost its opener to (now) #14 Bethene-Cookman. They have one common opponent, SE Missouri State, and both beat SEMO by over 20 points. Still, Tennessee State is at home, so you never know.

The next game is really important: Both Samford and Wofford are undefeated in the SoCon (Sam 3-0, Woff 4-0). Both still have to play Chattanooga (3-1 in conference), but otherwise their upcoming opponents have won only about a third of their games. So this game is for the out-right lead in the conference at this point and the inside track the rest of the way.

Villanova is coming off a tough road loss (remember that last-second 2-point conversion) and cannot afford another conference loss. But if they can win at home against Maine, they go back into a tie for the lead in the CAA.

The last ranked matchup is rank: As has been discussed here, South Dakota State has lost four of it last five games, including its recent loss to 2-6 Missouri State. Northern Iowa has lost three in a row coming into this game (admittedly, the last two in OT). We can at least hope the loser of this game drops out of the polls.

Then we have the matchup of mighty 3-3 teams, one of which is (amazingly) ranked.

The final game is interesting because South Carolina State has won five straight after two opening losses -- one of those to Clemson, which is currently ranked #9 in the FBS AP poll. Bethune-Cookman’s only loss was to Florida State (#3).

Underdog on the left.

 

[kurtismichael]

I went with Vilanova, but it made me ill to do so because I do not like Coach Talley. (Sp?). Hopefully, I'm wrong and Maine crushes them.

 

[IdaGriz01]

I went with Villanova, but it made me ill to do so because I do not like Coach Talley. (Sp?). Hopefully, I'm wrong and Maine crushes them.

Well, as of this evening, you have some company with your vote for 'Nova. Personally, I'm hoping New Hampshire gets thumped so we can bump a f-ing 3-3 team from the polls. :wtf: (No fan of Stony Brook, but UNH has had one "good win" -- but they're ranked when teams with far better records aren't.)

[Thank God I avoid BSC matchups in this online poll. Otherwise, this would turn into another interminable Griz-Eagle pissing contest. ]

 

[kurtismichael]

I went with Villanova, but it made me ill to do so because I do not like Coach Talley. (Sp?). Hopefully, I'm wrong and Maine crushes them.

Well, as of this evening, you have some company with your vote for 'Nova. Personally, I'm hoping New Hampshire gets thumped so we can bump a f-ing 3-3 team from the polls. :wtf: (No fan of Stony Brook, but UNH has had one "good win" -- but they're ranked when teams with far better records aren't.)

[Thank God I avoid BSC matchups in this online poll. Otherwise, this would turn into another interminable Griz-Eagle pissing contest. ]

No argument, I don't think the CAA is as strong as it was 4-8 seasons ago and UNH is getting credit for what conference they play in, but yeah if at this point in the season a team isn't playing above .500 than they shouldn't be ranked.

 

[IdaGriz01]

The Tennessee State vs Eastern Illinois game is for the out-right lead in the OVC. And if Tenn State can pull off the upset at home, they’ll be in the driver’s seat: 5-0 in conference, with the hardest part of their schedule behind them. The teams they play after Eastern Illinois have a combined record of 9-10. Eastern has one more conference game than T State afterwards, and those combined records are 17-13.

 

[kurtismichael]

No one is giving Samford a shot against Wofford.

 

[BakunLT]

I went with Villanova, but it made me ill to do so because I do not like Coach Talley. (Sp?). Hopefully, I'm wrong and Maine crushes them.

Well, as of this evening, you have some company with your vote for 'Nova. Personally, I'm hoping New Hampshire gets thumped so we can bump a f-ing 3-3 team from the polls. :wtf: (No fan of Stony Brook, but UNH has had one "good win" -- but they're ranked when teams with far better records aren't.)

[Thank God I avoid BSC matchups in this online poll. Otherwise, this would turn into another interminable Griz-Eagle pissing contest. ]

Well you don't need Montana vs EWU in the poll, It's not an upset when you know you will win. 28-17 Grizz.. I'l go with Samford wth

 

[IdaGriz01]

No one is giving Samford a shot against Wofford.

Since you posted, 1 taker … but that’s it.

Which is interesting. Perhaps people are more used to Wofford begin good while Samford is kinda the “new kid.”

But besides being 5-2, they are both undefeated in conference. In each case, one of their losses was to a decent FBS team, while the other was to an unranked FCS.

Samford actually did better against their two common opponents, W Carolina and Ga Southern. They won by 28 and 10, Wofford won by 10 and 4. In fact, Samford scores quite a bit more than Wofford, averaging 35.7 points per game, vs 23.0 for Wofford. Their scoring defenses are pretty close: 24.7 ppg for Samford vs 22.9 for Wofford.

So, even though Wofford is at home, I’d say Samford has a pretty decent chance for an upset.

 

[BakunLT]

Oh, I picked them,just to be different ya know?

 

[IdaGriz01]

People seem to like the notion that Tennessee State might upset Eastern Illinois, but not overwhelmingly so at this point (9 votes out of 30). But aside from the conference-lead drama, this shapes up to be an “irresistible force meets immovable object” matchup. With Garoppolo slinging the ball around, Eastern is the most prolific scoring team in the FCS, at 48 points per game. (T State ain’t bad, BTW, being #28 at 34.5 ppg.) But Tennessee State is second only to NDSU in scoring defense, giving up just 13.5 ppg. And they’re #8 in passing defense, holding teams to about 154 yards per game. Could get real interesting.

 

[IdaGriz01]

The take on this thread shows only a mid-level of thought that SDSU could upset No Iowa. That’s interesting because their records seem pretty evenly matched. Yes, UNI did beat an FBS team in their opening game … but it turns out Iowa State (1-5) is a crappy team, whose only win was against Tulsa, a 2-5 C-USA loser. SDSU lost to Nebraska, which is actually in the BCS top-25. In common opponents, both lost to NDSU and to Southern Illinois, but -- most recently -- both played SIU tough. For the full season, UNI has better scoring defense stats, but they’ve given up nearly 29 ppg in their last three games (losses). SDSU gave up just over 25 ppg in their last three games (1 win and 2 losses). Being at home, SDSU might have a slight edge.

 

[Herd]

I don't see a game that I'd call an "upset" on that list. A lot of fairly even matchups IMO. UNI/SDSU is a good one, and an elimiation game. TN State vs EIU is as high profile as it gets in the Ohio Valley, that'll be a good one.

Your game is probably the best game of the week though. The Herd should have 2 bye weeks, back to back . . . we will see.

 

[IdaGriz01]

I don't see a game that I'd call an "upset" on that list. A lot of fairly even matchups IMO. UNI/SDSU is a good one, and an elimiation game. TN State vs EIU is as high profile as it gets in the Ohio Valley, that'll be a good one.

Your game is probably the best game of the week though. The Herd should have 2 bye weeks, back to back . . . we will see.

You could have a point -- they might all be good, close games. However, when you have #21 vs #2, or an unranked vs a ranked team, you sorta have to view it as a potential upset.

 

[Grizzlies1982]

I took Stony Brook over New Hampshire. Stony doesn't look to be as good this year.
Yet I'm just annoyed that any 3-3 team is ranked in the polls.
New Hampshire you're going down so we can see if a 3-4 team is still ranked.

 

[IdaGriz01]

I took Stony Brook over New Hampshire. Stony doesn't look to be as good this year.
Yet I'm just annoyed that any 3-3 team is ranked in the polls.
New Hampshire you're going down so we can see if a 3-4 team is still ranked.

My pick too -- and for pretty much the same (perhaps irrational) reasons. :thumb: :lol:

 

[IdaGriz01]

Well, the first game among the matchups in the poll -- Villanova vs Maine -- doesn’t start until 11:00 am. Guess we’ll have to make do with #8 Towson at Richmond, which starts at 10:00 am. That one is even on DirecTV (if you have the SportsPack), at 630, 642, and 698 (all HD). Did not put this one in the poll because it doesn’t seem like Richmond, at 2-5, has much of a chance against Towson (7-1). Of course, we can always hope (Richmond is at home).