Discussion
As you’d expect at this stage, we will not find a lot of common opponents for many of these matchups. For most cases. the question boils down to who they beat and who they lost to.
Yale at Youngstown State seems like a reasonable matchup, since they won the same number of games. Yale is here, of course, because they beat Harvard. One of their two losses was to Lehigh, a high-seeded playoff team. The Penguins lost to an FBS and to South Dakota State, and beat Illinois State and Southern Illinois. Can the Bulldogs pull off the upset? They looked really good against Harvard, so I think they can … especially if YSU takes them lightly.
The Harvard at Villanova game is another one that is hard to call because the Ivies play fewer games. At bottom, Harvard did not play anyone of consequence, with wins at the likes of Stetson (3-9), Merrimack (4-8), and Columbia (2-8) before their loss at Yale. Villanova’s losses were to Penn State and ranked Monmouth, with a win over playoff-bound New Hampshire. [Spare some sympathy for Monmouth, which went 9-3 and still did not get a bid.] This is another case where I see the Crimson having a chance only if the Wildcats think they have an easy draw.
It is hard to make any case for the Central Connecticut at Rhode Island game to be competitive. The Blue Devils lost to a weak FBS, but also to a pitiful Merrimack team. They barely won over Sacred Heart in OT and Wagner (also in OT). Rhode Island is battle tested, with a win over playoff team New Hampshire. Still … “on any given Saturday.”
The Lamar at Abilene Christian game features two teams with identical records. Lamar lost to an FBS opponent and to highly-ranked Stephen F. Austin. They won over SE Louisiana and South Dakota. Abilene Christian lost two FBS games but won over Stephen F, Austin and Tarleton. I see this game as a genuine tossup that could go either way.
Next up, I expect SE Louisiana to have its hands full with Illinois State. The Lions are a quality team, their only losses being to two FBS opponents and ranked Lamar. Trouble is, SELA played a pretty weak schedule outside of that, with wins over pitiful Northwestern State (1-11) and Mississippi Valley State (1-10). So the Redbirds are much more battle-tested, with Missouri Valley wins over South Dakota and South Dakota State.
The North Dakota at Tennessee Tech game is another that features a battle-tested Missouri Valley team against a member of a much weaker conference. Certainly the Golden Eagles did what they had to do with the schedule they had. Their only loss was to an FBS opponent and they beat up on the likes of Davidson (2-10), Eastern Illinois (3-9) and Tennessee State (2-10). But their only “quality” wins were over Garden-Webb (7-5) and UT-Martin (6-6). Are they ready to take on an opponent that’s been through the MVFC meat-grinder? We’ll find out.
The next game poses an interesting question: Is South Dakota State back for real, or did they just play above themselves, still without the original QB1? Looking over accounts of the OT win over North Dakota, I personally have my doubts. Still, the Jacks’ did win. And on the other side, it’s hard to have a lot of confidence in New Hampshire. They feasted on the CAA cupcakes (Albany, 2-10; Campbell, 2-10; Bryant, 3-9), but lost to the better CAA opponents (Villanova and Rhode Island). They did have a good win against Monmouth (9-3), but were unimpressive against Willian & Mary (7-5) and Maine (6-6). Overall, I rate this one another tossup … so I have no idea of who gets to visit Missoula the following week.
The game between Drake and South Dakota is hard to see as anything but a mismatch. The Bulldogs have a nice record (one D-II win, however). but they lost every time they played a quality OOC opponent. Otherwise, the conference is simply too weak to get them ready for stiff competition. I expect them to get blasted, just like they did when they visited the Coyotes back in September. (What’s up with that, BTW? I thought the committee tried to avoid that in the first round.)
