Upset Guesses, Non-BSC (Nov 9)

[IdaGriz01]

This coming weekend has four matchups between ranked teams, and two of those are significant for their conference races. For example, the Charleston Southern vs Coastal Carolina game is for the outright lead in the Big South.

Also, Chattanooga, Wofford, and Samford all have one 1 loss in the SoCon. Wofford just lost to Samford, so a loss next weekend pretty much takes them out of the title picture. On the other hand, Chattie needs to win so they go into their game with Samford with only one conference loss.

Maine seems to have the inside track for the CAA title, so the two conference games listed here are mostly important in the scramble for at-large bids. Unfortunately, New Hampshire, with its 4-4 record and #25 ranking, is at home ... so they’ll probably pull the upset (they play well at home) and move up. :lol:

(Under-dog on the left.)

 

[OldtiredGRiz]

Well, since every one of your underdogs pulled off the win this past Saturday, I'd say the field is wide open for this week. I went with Chattanooga this week. Home field, pretty much a must win to stay in the SoCon title hunt, I think the Mocs will beat Wofford.

 

[kurtismichael]

I went with NH. You are right they will win and move up in the poll moving away from the edge of the abyss known as "others receiving votes".

 

[IdaGriz01]

Interesting that half the votes at this point show Charleston Southern upsetting Coastal Carolina. Of course, without the loss to Colorado (not exactly a powerhouse FBS), both would be undefeated. But Coastal Carolina is quite the offensive powerhouse: #1 in FCS scoring at 47.7 points per game. Against their two common opponents -- both in conference -- Chas So won by an average of 15 points, Coastal by 32. Both like to pound the rock, especially Chas So ... almost three-quarters of their plays are runs. (Coastal is about two-thirds run). The only advantages Chas So seems to have are that they’re playing at home, and they are #9 in scoring defense, giving up just 19.4 points per game. Should be interesting.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Wow, Chas So still running away with the survey. No votes for the 5-4 smucks at the bottom -- which is certainly understandable. Problem was, a lot of ranked teams have even weaker opponents. Maine, for example gets Albany, which is 1-8, while Youngstown State gets Northern Iowa, which is (apparently) all stove up -- injuries -- and has lost five in a row.

 

[kurtismichael]

I'm conflicted, hate JM but really want UNH out of the poll. I guess that is a me problem. :?

 

[Grizzlies1982]

Chattanooga is taking down the Terriers. You heard it here. Book it.

 

[IdaGriz01]

I'm conflicted, hate JM but really want UNH out of the poll. I guess that is a me problem. :?

Which you share with a number of us on here.

 

[IdaGriz01]

I see that the Chattanooga vs Wofford matchup is finally getting some attention (my choice, BTW). Record-wise the teams are fairly evenly matched. Wofford’s “extra" loss was to Baylor (currently #6 in the BCS). (Chattie gets their crushing at the end of the season, when they get to play Alabama. ) Both lost to Ga Southern (by a FG. in each case), with wins against common opponents Citadel, Elon, and W. Carolina.

However, Chattie’s average margin of victory in those three wins was 12 points, while Wofford managed by a hair over 6. That parallels the overall stats: Chattanooga averages 31.3 points per game, Wofford 23.4 ppg.
Defensively, Chattie gives up just 18.8 ppg (#8 in FCS), while Wofford gives up 24.3 ppg (#46).

This is the first time I can recall Chattanooga being in the SoCon title hunt this late in the season (they lead by a half game over Wofford and Samford). Being at home, my guess is that the Mocs come out with their hair on fire: Chattie wins, 34-17.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Mildly surprised that anyone picked one of the bottom two upsets. Although, just on the stats, the Central Arkansas vs SE Louisiana doesn’t look like a huge mismatch. Central averages 33.5 points per game, while SE La goes 38.6 ppg. Central gives up 25.2 ppg, SE La 21.1 ppg. Seems like SE La wins by like 32-27, but maybe home field is enough to turn that around for Central Arkansas.

 

[Grizzlies1982]

Looks like the first four of these six won their upsets.
Not quite like all of them pulling it off. Still a good day for the "underdogs".