Updated playoff contenders 11/12/18

[PlayerRep]

Here’s a quick guess at the most likely scenario. I think with a Griz win, it still looks real likely we get in.

Good lord - strength of schedule has to come into play and like it or not, the Griz have yet to win a game over an opponent who has a winning record! Their strength of schedule will sink them win this weekend or not!

I agree. I don't think that we get in. Only chance that I truly see is...of course we get some things our way across the country and we have to beat MSU by 20+ I think. Then we have a chance. MSU gets in if they beat us.

Not that facts matter a lot these days, but MSU has not beaten a team with a winning record and the Griz have (Drake, as others pointed out).

But UM and MSU have both beaten teams with the strongest strengths of schedules, NI at 104 and WI at 120. Think they are top 2 in the FCS. Those 5-5 teams are good, and perhaps very good.

Sagarin Ratings.

 

[PlayerRep]

Here’s a quick guess at the most likely scenario. I think with a Griz win, it still looks real likely we get in.

Good lord - strength of schedule has to come into play and like it or not, the Griz have yet to win a game over an opponent who has a winning record! Their strength of schedule will sink them win this weekend or not!

The SOS for MSU and UM is not much different. So, Good Lord to you.

 

[PlayerRep]

I doubt a 6-5 MVC gets in over a 7-4 BSC team this year. The MVC seems to be down this year. Might look better for our resume if WIU has a winning record rather than a losing one.

I assume that a 6-5 NI wouldn't get in over 7-4 UM. I assume a 6-5 WI shouldn't get in over 7-4 MSU, but probably would over UM.

I agree that it would be nice for UND to lose, even though they aren't getting much respect in the polls, and same with ISU.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Here’s a quick guess at the most likely scenario. I think with a Griz win, it still looks real likely we get in.

Good lord - strength of schedule has to come into play and like it or not, the Griz have yet to win a game over an opponent who has a winning record! Their strength of schedule will sink them win this weekend or not!

The SOS for MSU and UM is not much different. So, Good Lord to you.

The SOS calculation takes the entire W-L schedules into account ... opponents and opponents' opponents. So far as I can tell, the formula does not try to weight more recent games more heavily ... even though teams strengths do change over the course of a season.

But in my many years of watching the NCAA do things (football and basketball, mainly),it seems pretty clear that they do try to weigh a team's more recent history more heavily. (Easier to see in basketball, but still true for football.) When the Griz pound the kitties, they will establish a closing rush ... which will be a plus when the committee starts ranking all the (7-4) teams. No guarantees, obviously, but it could make the difference.

 

[tnt]

Here’s a quick guess at the most likely scenario. I think with a Griz win, it still looks real likely we get in.

Good lord - strength of schedule has to come into play and like it or not, the Griz have yet to win a game over an opponent who has a winning record! Their strength of schedule will sink them win this weekend or not!

The SOS for MSU and UM is not much different. So, Good Lord to you.

The SOS calculation takes the entire W-L schedules into account ... opponents and opponents' opponents. So far as I can tell, the formula does not try to weight more recent games more heavily ... even though teams strengths do change over the course of a season.

But in my many years of watching the NCAA do things (football and basketball, mainly),it seems pretty clear that they do try to weigh a team's more recent history more heavily. (Easier to see in basketball, but still true for football.) When the Griz pound the kitties, they will establish a closing rush ... which will be a plus when the committee starts ranking all the (7-4) teams. No guarantees, obviously, but it could make the difference.

I suspect you are right, and I would go so far as to say should the Griz squeak in, they will perform well enough that, the theory would be confirmed. Haucks teams do tend to peak at the right time (well a week late this year - nothing is perfect.)

 

[marceagfan5]

Here’s a quick guess at the most likely scenario. I think with a Griz win, it still looks real likely we get in.

Good lord - strength of schedule has to come into play and like it or not, the Griz have yet to win a game over an opponent who has a winning record! Their strength of schedule will sink them win this weekend or not!

The SOS for MSU and UM is not much different. So, Good Lord to you.

I assume you are making your argument based off of the Sagarin rankings, which is insanely flawed for FCS. How are MSU and UM comparable when MSU has played 3 top 5 teams and UM has played 0

 

[tnt]

Here’s a quick guess at the most likely scenario. I think with a Griz win, it still looks real likely we get in.

Good lord - strength of schedule has to come into play and like it or not, the Griz have yet to win a game over an opponent who has a winning record! Their strength of schedule will sink them win this weekend or not!

The SOS for MSU and UM is not much different. So, Good Lord to you.

I assume you are making your argument based off of the Sagarin rankings, which is insanely flawed for FCS. How are MSU and UM comparable when MSU has played 3 top 5 teams and UM has played 0

Because those ratings are even more insanely flawed as evidenced by how the season played out for those "Top 5" teams. So you look at common oppeneents etc to determine SOS. IF the griz win this weekend, they are the better team (whether or not they should be.) I mean how many top 5 teams did eastern play?

 

[reinell30]

We lost the playoffs when we beat ourselves against' Portland State!

 

[PlayerRep]

Here’s a quick guess at the most likely scenario. I think with a Griz win, it still looks real likely we get in.

Good lord - strength of schedule has to come into play and like it or not, the Griz have yet to win a game over an opponent who has a winning record! Their strength of schedule will sink them win this weekend or not!

The SOS for MSU and UM is not much different. So, Good Lord to you.

I assume you are making your argument based off of the Sagarin rankings, which is insanely flawed for FCS. How are MSU and UM comparable when MSU has played 3 top 5 teams and UM has played 0

Anyone who understands football can look at the schedules of the 2 teams and see that they are not that different. Also, getting crushed by top teams is hardly helpful to the argument that a team deserves to go to the playoffs. Cats lost by almost 60 in those 3 games. Davis was rated above EWU and Weber, as well as SDS, until its lost last weekend.

What is really flawed is not the Sagarin, it's the way you think. That is completely flawed.

 

[marceagfan5]

Good lord - strength of schedule has to come into play and like it or not, the Griz have yet to win a game over an opponent who has a winning record! Their strength of schedule will sink them win this weekend or not!

The SOS for MSU and UM is not much different. So, Good Lord to you.

I assume you are making your argument based off of the Sagarin rankings, which is insanely flawed for FCS. How are MSU and UM comparable when MSU has played 3 top 5 teams and UM has played 0

Because those ratings are even more insanely flawed as evidenced by how the season played out for those "Top 5" teams. So you look at common oppeneents etc to determine SOS. IF the griz win this weekend, they are the better team (whether or not they should be.) I mean how many top 5 teams did eastern play?

Who cares about Eastern I’m not here to argue for them.

I’m just saying as the season sits right now, SDSU, EWU, and Weber are all ranked in the top 5 and there isn’t a team in the top 5 right now, that UM played. That’s out of both UM And MSUs control but the post I was speaking to was discussing both teams strength of schedule...and I think MSU is way ahead in that category. No one cares about all the 4-6 or 3-7 teams each team played....

 

[marceagfan5]

Good lord - strength of schedule has to come into play and like it or not, the Griz have yet to win a game over an opponent who has a winning record! Their strength of schedule will sink them win this weekend or not!

The SOS for MSU and UM is not much different. So, Good Lord to you.

I assume you are making your argument based off of the Sagarin rankings, which is insanely flawed for FCS. How are MSU and UM comparable when MSU has played 3 top 5 teams and UM has played 0

Anyone who understands football can look at the schedules of the 2 teams and see that they are not that different. Also, getting crushed by top teams is hardly helpful to the argument that a team deserves to go to the playoffs. Cats lost by almost 60 in those 3 games. Davis was rated above EWU and Weber, as well as SDS, until its lost last weekend.

What is really flawed is not the Sagarin, it's the way you think. That is completely flawed.

My argument was only about who had the tougher schedule, that’s it, not about which team deserves to make it, pretty easy to understand that...well maybe not for everyone.

Good thing is we will find out who the better team is on Saturday. Good luck to the Griz!

 

[Butte5518]

Here’s a quick guess at the most likely scenario. I think with a Griz win, it still looks real likely we get in.

Good lord - strength of schedule has to come into play and like it or not, the Griz have yet to win a game over an opponent who has a winning record! Their strength of schedule will sink them win this weekend or not!

The SOS for MSU and UM is not much different. So, Good Lord to you.

I agree but I am not the advocating that MSU deserves a post season nod...

 

[Butte5518]

Here’s a quick guess at the most likely scenario. I think with a Griz win, it still looks real likely we get in.

Good lord - strength of schedule has to come into play and like it or not, the Griz have yet to win a game over an opponent who has a winning record! Their strength of schedule will sink them win this weekend or not!

Well there’s Drake at 6-3.
If UNI wins, they’ll be 6-5 and that’ll strengthen us also. Maybe I should be rooting for them instead of against them. :lol:

Good lord - Drake??... DRAKE???.. BTW - they dont have a win over an opponent with a winning record as well!! :clap: :clap: :thumb:

 

[PlayerRep]

The SOS for MSU and UM is not much different. So, Good Lord to you.

I assume you are making your argument based off of the Sagarin rankings, which is insanely flawed for FCS. How are MSU and UM comparable when MSU has played 3 top 5 teams and UM has played 0

Because those ratings are even more insanely flawed as evidenced by how the season played out for those "Top 5" teams. So you look at common oppeneents etc to determine SOS. IF the griz win this weekend, they are the better team (whether or not they should be.) I mean how many top 5 teams did eastern play?

Who cares about Eastern I’m not here to argue for them.

I’m just saying as the season sits right now, SDSU, EWU, and Weber are all ranked in the top 5 and there isn’t a team in the top 5 right now, that UM played. That’s out of both UM And MSUs control but the post I was speaking to was discussing both teams strength of schedule...and I think MSU is way ahead in that category. No one cares about all the 4-6 or 3-7 teams each team played....

Who cares if MSU played 3 top teams and got crushed by 2 of them, and beaten soundly by the other? Man, you cannot see the forest for the trees.

Yes, the playoff committee does care about the rest of the teams. That's what they do. Look at the Simple Rating System that the committee uses. I posted it in another thread.

Talk about not having a big win. Had EWU not beaten Davis, EWU wouldn't have had a good win. Central, No Colo? Or, are saying that your wins over So Utah and Ida are much better than UM's wins over them?

 

[marceagfan5]

I assume you are making your argument based off of the Sagarin rankings, which is insanely flawed for FCS. How are MSU and UM comparable when MSU has played 3 top 5 teams and UM has played 0

Because those ratings are even more insanely flawed as evidenced by how the season played out for those "Top 5" teams. So you look at common oppeneents etc to determine SOS. IF the griz win this weekend, they are the better team (whether or not they should be.) I mean how many top 5 teams did eastern play?

Who cares about Eastern I’m not here to argue for them.

I’m just saying as the season sits right now, SDSU, EWU, and Weber are all ranked in the top 5 and there isn’t a team in the top 5 right now, that UM played. That’s out of both UM And MSUs control but the post I was speaking to was discussing both teams strength of schedule...and I think MSU is way ahead in that category. No one cares about all the 4-6 or 3-7 teams each team played....

Who cares if MSU played 3 top teams and got crushed by 2 of them, and beaten soundly by the other? Man, you cannot see the forest for the trees.

Yes, the playoff committee does care about the rest of the teams. That's what they do. Look at the Simple Rating System that the committee uses. I posted it in another thread.

Talk about not having a big win. Had EWU not beaten Davis, EWU wouldn't have had a good win. Central, No Colo? Or, are saying that your wins over So Utah and Ida are much better than UM's wins over them?

SMH...I’ll agree to disagree

No disagreement on EWU, the big sky isn’t that good this year so yeah, Eastern hasn’t had a big win (Davis is overrated) and I actually think MSU and UM played tougher schedules than EWU, no argument here, but Eastern can’t play themselves and I think they are the best BSC team.

All the arguing on SOS between cat/griz really means nothing because of the game on Saturday and as I said before, good luck!!

 

[grizfan95]

Not that facts matter a lot these days, but MSU has not beaten a team with a winning record and the Griz have (Drake, as others pointed out).

Not sure beating Drake, winning record or not, is a huge plus.

Then state your claim for why you think it's so clear that MSU would get in but the Griz won't.

The Griz lost to PSU by 2, the Cats won by 20.
The Cats beat Idaho by 1 at home, the Griz beat Idaho by 19 on the road.
The Cats have a blowout loss (SDSU), the Griz have two (UND and UCD, but the UCD one is super weird since they were up 18 at half and we all know the rest of the story).
They are both 6-4 with neither having a marquee win (both team's best wins are against 5-5 MVFC teams).

I see UM and MSU's chances as almost identical.

I don't think I ever stated that MSU clearly would get in, what I did say is Drake, winning record or not, it not super impressive, and most likely carries very little weight.

Um, yes, yes you did. Like 7 posts prior. :?

I agree. I don't think that we get in. Only chance that I truly see is...of course we get some things our way across the country and we have to beat MSU by 20+ I think. Then we have a chance. MSU gets in if they beat us.

 

[HookedonGriz]

The SOS for MSU and UM is not much different. So, Good Lord to you.

I assume you are making your argument based off of the Sagarin rankings, which is insanely flawed for FCS. How are MSU and UM comparable when MSU has played 3 top 5 teams and UM has played 0

Because those ratings are even more insanely flawed as evidenced by how the season played out for those "Top 5" teams. So you look at common oppeneents etc to determine SOS. IF the griz win this weekend, they are the better team (whether or not they should be.) I mean how many top 5 teams did eastern play?

Who cares about Eastern I’m not here to argue for them.

I’m just saying as the season sits right now, SDSU, EWU, and Weber are all ranked in the top 5 and there isn’t a team in the top 5 right now, that UM played. That’s out of both UM And MSUs control but the post I was speaking to was discussing both teams strength of schedule...and I think MSU is way ahead in that category. No one cares about all the 4-6 or 3-7 teams each team played....

So now all you have to do is lose by a lot to top teams to be considered? I mean they got ran out of SDSU, and were not competitive at all vs EWU or Weber. Why in the world would such bad losses help them.

 

[marceagfan5]

I assume you are making your argument based off of the Sagarin rankings, which is insanely flawed for FCS. How are MSU and UM comparable when MSU has played 3 top 5 teams and UM has played 0

Because those ratings are even more insanely flawed as evidenced by how the season played out for those "Top 5" teams. So you look at common oppeneents etc to determine SOS. IF the griz win this weekend, they are the better team (whether or not they should be.) I mean how many top 5 teams did eastern play?

Who cares about Eastern I’m not here to argue for them.

I’m just saying as the season sits right now, SDSU, EWU, and Weber are all ranked in the top 5 and there isn’t a team in the top 5 right now, that UM played. That’s out of both UM And MSUs control but the post I was speaking to was discussing both teams strength of schedule...and I think MSU is way ahead in that category. No one cares about all the 4-6 or 3-7 teams each team played....

So now all you have to do is lose by a lot to top teams to be considered? I mean they got ran out of SDSU, and were not competitive at all vs EWU or Weber. Why in the world would such bad losses help them.

Again, I wasn’t arguing who should be considered I was just saying MSU had a tougher schedule and why...

 

[grizindabox]

Not sure beating Drake, winning record or not, is a huge plus.

Then state your claim for why you think it's so clear that MSU would get in but the Griz won't.

The Griz lost to PSU by 2, the Cats won by 20.
The Cats beat Idaho by 1 at home, the Griz beat Idaho by 19 on the road.
The Cats have a blowout loss (SDSU), the Griz have two (UND and UCD, but the UCD one is super weird since they were up 18 at half and we all know the rest of the story).
They are both 6-4 with neither having a marquee win (both team's best wins are against 5-5 MVFC teams).

I see UM and MSU's chances as almost identical.

I don't think I ever stated that MSU clearly would get in, what I did say is Drake, winning record or not, it not super impressive, and most likely carries very little weight.

Um, yes, yes you did. Like 7 posts prior. :?

I agree. I don't think that we get in. Only chance that I truly see is...of course we get some things our way across the country and we have to beat MSU by 20+ I think. Then we have a chance. MSU gets in if they beat us.

No, No I didn't.

 

[HookedonGriz]

Because those ratings are even more insanely flawed as evidenced by how the season played out for those "Top 5" teams. So you look at common oppeneents etc to determine SOS. IF the griz win this weekend, they are the better team (whether or not they should be.) I mean how many top 5 teams did eastern play?

Who cares about Eastern I’m not here to argue for them.

I’m just saying as the season sits right now, SDSU, EWU, and Weber are all ranked in the top 5 and there isn’t a team in the top 5 right now, that UM played. That’s out of both UM And MSUs control but the post I was speaking to was discussing both teams strength of schedule...and I think MSU is way ahead in that category. No one cares about all the 4-6 or 3-7 teams each team played....

So now all you have to do is lose by a lot to top teams to be considered? I mean they got ran out of SDSU, and were not competitive at all vs EWU or Weber. Why in the world would such bad losses help them.

Again, I wasn’t arguing who should be considered I was just saying MSU had a tougher schedule and why...

You said MSU SOS is way ahead of the Griz. Most sites that rank SOS have them pretty darn close. My biggest argument in all of this is the fact that MSU is getting love for having losses to 3 top rated teams. I don’t get where that makes any sense. Why in the world would awful losses get you any credit. I can see if they were competitive in those but they were far from it.