UM's APR dropping

[Cats2506]

Keep in mind that these latest numbers are pflus first year, in the 2011-12 year you have more defections and issues, along with several players bailing to tryout in the NFL (they may or may not comeback and give the extra point by graduating)

At any rate it is entirely possible that 11-12 may be as bad or worse, and it the report comes back next year below 930 you will be ineligable for playoffs in 2013.

But JOD and others dont see a problem :thumb:

 

[Grisly Fan]

"grizchamp wrote:

929 is our current 4 year average. The last three years APR numbers are 936, 950, and 948 (according to reports printed off from the NCAA). I don't think we have too much to worry about (regarding APR) in the next few years."

If 929 is the 4 year average and 936, 950, abd 948 are three of the 4 years, the missing 4th year number is 882. So which number falls off? If it's the 882 there is no problem. If it's any of the other 3, it could be a big problem. There has to be something missing. Maybe I forgot to take the Obama Math Class in kindygarden.

Here's the math:


Football

University of Montana

2007 - 2008
939

2008 - 2009
936

2009 - 2010
932

If it is indeed a 4-year rolling average then:

2010-2011 = 929 = (939+936+932+Latest)/4

Latest = ((4*929) - 939 - 936 - 932) = 909 = Not good

Close but no cigar. 939,936,932 are 4 year averages, not 1 year totals. That 909 is a 1 year total, not 4 year average. Pretty tough to get the exact APR for the single season 2010-2011 but I'm guessing it's around 924.

You are absolutely correct. I vapor locked on this one.

I did a little spreadsheet to look at it. The problem is that we don't know the values that make up 2004-2005. If we assume they were all 929 to get to a 929 average (which of course is unlikely) then then most recent year would be 933. However if I change the 2001-2002 number to 919 and add that 10 points to 2002-2003 then the 2004-2005 4 year average is still 929 but the most recent number would be 943. If I switch that around and move the 10 points to the previous year then the most recent number would be 923. So not is it hard to know, it is impossible to know without knowing the numbers that make up the original 929 average. Futhermore, without knowing those numbers, it is impossible to determine whether it is an upward or downward trend for the single most recent year. If you care to not believe me I will send you the spreadsheet and you can play with it yourself. It is more complex than I would have guessed.

 

[BDizzle]

"grizchamp wrote:

929 is our current 4 year average. The last three years APR numbers are 936, 950, and 948 (according to reports printed off from the NCAA). I don't think we have too much to worry about (regarding APR) in the next few years."

If 929 is the 4 year average and 936, 950, abd 948 are three of the 4 years, the missing 4th year number is 882. So which number falls off? If it's the 882 there is no problem. If it's any of the other 3, it could be a big problem. There has to be something missing. Maybe I forgot to take the Obama Math Class in kindygarden.

Here's the math:


Football

University of Montana

2007 - 2008
939

2008 - 2009
936

2009 - 2010
932

If it is indeed a 4-year rolling average then:

2010-2011 = 929 = (939+936+932+Latest)/4

Latest = ((4*929) - 939 - 936 - 932) = 909 = Not good

Close but no cigar. 939,936,932 are 4 year averages, not 1 year totals. That 909 is a 1 year total, not 4 year average. Pretty tough to get the exact APR for the single season 2010-2011 but I'm guessing it's around 924.

You are absolutely correct. I vapor locked on this one.

I did a little spreadsheet to look at it. The problem is that we don't know the values that make up 2004-2005. If we assume they were all 929 to get to a 929 average (which of course is unlikely) then then most recent year would be 933. However if I change the 2001-2002 number to 919 and add that 10 points to 2002-2003 then the 2004-2005 4 year average is still 929 but the most recent number would be 943. If I switch that around and move the 10 points to the previous year then the most recent number would be 923. So not is it hard to know, it is impossible to know without knowing the numbers that make up the original 929 average. Futhermore, without knowing those numbers, it is impossible to determine whether it is an upward or downward trend for the single most recent year. If you care to not believe me I will send you the spreadsheet and you can play with it yourself. It is more complex than I would have guessed.

I agree with you. If you look up at my previous post I quickly threw some numbers together. They agree that there is no way for us to really know what each year is. Like you said it could either be lower or higher. I honestly think next year might go down a little again. And then it will start rising.

 

[Pin2Win]

Little bit of quick math solves this. Here are the single year and 4 year APR's I figured. I only figured back to 2007 on the multi year. I just calculated out the individual years that made up a 2007 four year average. I can't validate the individual numbers before 08-09, but the numbers all compute:
Year - Single : 4 year
10-11 - 948 : 929
09-10 - 950 : 932
08-09 - 936 : 936
07-08 - 882 : 939
06-07 - 960 : 946
05-06 - 966
04-05 - 948
03-04 - 910

***edit - fixed 2011 4-year

 

[BDizzle]

Little bit of quick math solves this. Here are the single year and 4 year APR's I figured. I only figured back to 2007 on the multi year. I just calculated out the individual years that made up a 2007 four year average. I can't validate the individual numbers before 08-09, but the numbers all compute:
Year - Single : 4 year
10-11 - 948 : 936
09-10 - 950 : 932
08-09 - 936 : 936
07-08 - 882 : 939
06-07 - 960 : 946
05-06 - 966
04-05 - 948
03-04 - 910

I'm confused by your 10-11 number. We all know it was 929 so why did you put 936? And did you make up the individual year numbers for 03-04, 04-05, and 05-06? I did pretty much the same thing a few posts before. Guessing the individual year APR #s is pointless as it all depends on #s that we don't know.

 

[Cats2506]

Little bit of quick math solves this. Here are the single year and 4 year APR's I figured. I only figured back to 2007 on the multi year. I just calculated out the individual years that made up a 2007 four year average. I can't validate the individual numbers before 08-09, but the numbers all compute:
Year - Single : 4 year
10-11 - 948 : 936
09-10 - 950 : 932
08-09 - 936 : 936
07-08 - 882 : 939
06-07 - 960 : 946
05-06 - 966
04-05 - 948
03-04 - 910

I'm confused by your 10-11 number. We all know it was 929 so why did you put 936? And did you make up the individual year numbers for 03-04, 04-05, and 05-06? I did pretty much the same thing a few posts before. Guessing the individual year APR #s is pointless as it all depends on #s that we don't know.

his 10-11 number of 936 is a mistake

I think he was able to extrapolate the older numbers based on knowing 3 years numbers and the multi year average of the last year of the group.

(Multi year average *4) - (year 4) - (year 3) - (year 2) = (year 1)

working your way backwards you can get each of the older numbers that were unpublished.

I think he has the right numbers here

 

[PlayerRep]

If the single year numbers are correct, this means that UM's APR is acting going up. The problem is the low 882 in '07/'08. In next year's APR, the 882 will no longer be included, and the APR will likely jump with that number being replaced with whatever next year's single year number is. O'Day said the only way there would be a problem would be if a bunch of players were tossed out of school. This appears not be likely, as it looks like the panel sided with a group of players on one matter and the only other potentially pending matter seems to involve only 1 player. Schools get almost automatic relieve for players who leave to play professional ball. A number of players graduated prior to this spring, and others will finish up in the fall or next year.

 

[Cats2506]

If the single year numbers are correct, this means that UM's APR is acting going up. The problem is the low 882 in '07/'08. In next year's APR, the 882 will no longer be included, and the APR will likely jump with that number being replaced with whatever next year's single year number is. O'Day said the only way there would be a problem would be if a bunch of players were tossed out of school. This appears not be likely, as it looks like the panel sided with a group of players on one matter and the only other potentially pending matter seems to involve only 1 player. Schools get almost automatic relieve for players who leave to play professional ball. A number of players graduated prior to this spring, and others will finish up in the fall or next year.

448 is less than 950, 929 is less than 932

how many of those players will have NFL contracts, and if they don't there is no relief if they don't return to school next fall.

is Donaldnson completing school ?

 

[PlayerRep]

If the single year numbers are correct, this means that UM's APR is acting going up. The problem is the low 882 in '07/'08. In next year's APR, the 882 will no longer be included, and the APR will likely jump with that number being replaced with whatever next year's single year number is. O'Day said the only way there would be a problem would be if a bunch of players were tossed out of school. This appears not be likely, as it looks like the panel sided with a group of players on one matter and the only other potentially pending matter seems to involve only 1 player. Schools get almost automatic relieve for players who leave to play professional ball. A number of players graduated prior to this spring, and others will finish up in the fall or next year.

448 is less than 950, 929 is less than 932

how many of those players will have NFL contracts, and if they don't there is no relief if they don't return to school next fall.

is Donaldnson completing school ?

448? Players don't have to return to school next fall. They need to graduate in a certain amount of time. Isn't the current APR base number based on a 50% graduation rate? Everyone doesn't have to graduate.

 

[AZDoc]

I think my APR is now.... :jack:

 

[Pin2Win]

Little bit of quick math solves this. Here are the single year and 4 year APR's I figured. I only figured back to 2007 on the multi year. I just calculated out the individual years that made up a 2007 four year average. I can't validate the individual numbers before 08-09, but the numbers all compute:
Year - Single : 4 year
10-11 - 948 : 936
09-10 - 950 : 932
08-09 - 936 : 936
07-08 - 882 : 939
06-07 - 960 : 946
05-06 - 966
04-05 - 948
03-04 - 910

I'm confused by your 10-11 number. We all know it was 929 so why did you put 936? And did you make up the individual year numbers for 03-04, 04-05, and 05-06? I did pretty much the same thing a few posts before. Guessing the individual year APR #s is pointless as it all depends on #s that we don't know.

his 10-11 number of 936 is a mistake

I think he was able to extrapolate the older numbers based on knowing 3 years numbers and the multi year average of the last year of the group.

(Multi year average *4) - (year 4) - (year 3) - (year 2) = (year 1)

working your way backwards you can get each of the older numbers that were unpublished.

I think he has the right numbers here

Yep, my 2011 4 year of 936 was a typo. Sorry. It was supposed to be 929. I'll edit the original post. The rest of the numbers are correct.

 

[Pin2Win]

Little bit of quick math solves this. Here are the single year and 4 year APR's I figured. I only figured back to 2007 on the multi year. I just calculated out the individual years that made up a 2007 four year average. I can't validate the individual numbers before 08-09, but the numbers all compute:
Year - Single : 4 year
10-11 - 948 : 929
09-10 - 950 : 932
08-09 - 936 : 936
07-08 - 882 : 939
06-07 - 960 : 946
05-06 - 966
04-05 - 948
03-04 - 910

I'm confused by your 10-11 number. We all know it was 929 so why did you put 936? And did you make up the individual year numbers for 03-04, 04-05, and 05-06? I did pretty much the same thing a few posts before. Guessing the individual year APR #s is pointless as it all depends on #s that we don't know.

I have fixed my error and changed it to 929. Just a typo as I accidentally typed 09's number there. If the 4-year average is really just calculated by taking the four year added together and divide by 4, then there is no way my numbers can be wrong. The 2011, 2010, and 2009 single year numbers are known and published.
http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/apr2011/441_2011_apr.pdf
http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/apr2010/441_2010_apr.pdf
http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/apr2009/441_2009_apr.pdf

 

[PlayerRep]

If the single year numbers are correct, this means that UM's APR is acting going up. The problem is the low 882 in '07/'08. In next year's APR, the 882 will no longer be included, and the APR will likely jump with that number being replaced with whatever next year's single year number is. O'Day said the only way there would be a problem would be if a bunch of players were tossed out of school. This appears not be likely, as it looks like the panel sided with a group of players on one matter and the only other potentially pending matter seems to involve only 1 player. Schools get almost automatic relieve for players who leave to play professional ball. A number of players graduated prior to this spring, and others will finish up in the fall or next year.

448 is less than 950, 929 is less than 932

how many of those players will have NFL contracts, and if they don't there is no relief if they don't return to school next fall.

is Donaldnson completing school ?

Here are the single year numbers from the past 4 years (according to various posts). This is a positive trend. When 882 goes away next year, UM's 4-year APR will likely look very good.

10-11 - 948
09-10 - 950
08-09 - 936
07-08 - 882

 

[tnt]

[

Here are the single year numbers from the past 4 years (according to various posts). This is a positive trend. When 882 goes away next year, UM's 4-year APR will likely look very good.

10-11 - 948
09-10 - 950
08-09 - 936
07-08 - 882

Would be if those were the numbers, but they are not:

http://web1.ncaa.org/maps/aprRelease.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Football University of Montana MT 2007 - 2008 939
Football University of Montana MT 2008 - 2009 936
Football University of Montana MT 2009 - 2010 932
Football University of Montana MT 2010 - 2011 929

 

[BDizzle]

Little bit of quick math solves this. Here are the single year and 4 year APR's I figured. I only figured back to 2007 on the multi year. I just calculated out the individual years that made up a 2007 four year average. I can't validate the individual numbers before 08-09, but the numbers all compute:
Year - Single : 4 year
10-11 - 948 : 929
09-10 - 950 : 932
08-09 - 936 : 936
07-08 - 882 : 939
06-07 - 960 : 946
05-06 - 966
04-05 - 948
03-04 - 910

I'm confused by your 10-11 number. We all know it was 929 so why did you put 936? And did you make up the individual year numbers for 03-04, 04-05, and 05-06? I did pretty much the same thing a few posts before. Guessing the individual year APR #s is pointless as it all depends on #s that we don't know.

I have fixed my error and changed it to 929. Just a typo as I accidentally typed 09's number there. If the 4-year average is really just calculated by taking the four year added together and divide by 4, then there is no way my numbers can be wrong. The 2011, 2010, and 2009 single year numbers are known and published.
http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/apr2011/441_2011_apr.pdf
http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/apr2010/441_2010_apr.pdf
http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/apr2009/441_2009_apr.pdf

Awesome. Didn't mean to come off attacking you. I made my #s up so thought you did too but you actually did research. Thanks!

 

[BDizzle]

[

Here are the single year numbers from the past 4 years (according to various posts). This is a positive trend. When 882 goes away next year, UM's 4-year APR will likely look very good.

10-11 - 948
09-10 - 950
08-09 - 936
07-08 - 882

Would be if those were the numbers, but they are not:

http://web1.ncaa.org/maps/aprRelease.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Football University of Montana MT 2007 - 2008 939
Football University of Montana MT 2008 - 2009 936
Football University of Montana MT 2009 - 2010 932
Football University of Montana MT 2010 - 2011 929

Once again you are in the wrong. PR quoted single year #s as he stated. You are quoting 4 year averages.

 

[tnt]

[

Here are the single year numbers from the past 4 years (according to various posts). This is a positive trend. When 882 goes away next year, UM's 4-year APR will likely look very good.

10-11 - 948
09-10 - 950
08-09 - 936
07-08 - 882

Would be if those were the numbers, but they are not:

http://web1.ncaa.org/maps/aprRelease.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Football University of Montana MT 2007 - 2008 939
Football University of Montana MT 2008 - 2009 936
Football University of Montana MT 2009 - 2010 932
Football University of Montana MT 2010 - 2011 929

Once again you are in the wrong. PR quoted single year #s as he stated. You are quoting 4 year averages.

I don't know about once again, but I think I got it, thanks. I'll play games with PR, but you aren't worthy to lick his shoes.

 

[PlayerRep]

[

Here are the single year numbers from the past 4 years (according to various posts). This is a positive trend. When 882 goes away next year, UM's 4-year APR will likely look very good.

10-11 - 948
09-10 - 950
08-09 - 936
07-08 - 882

Would be if those were the numbers, but they are not:

http://web1.ncaa.org/maps/aprRelease.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Football University of Montana MT 2007 - 2008 939
Football University of Montana MT 2008 - 2009 936
Football University of Montana MT 2009 - 2010 932
Football University of Montana MT 2010 - 2011 929

Once again you are in the wrong. PR quoted single year #s as he stated. You are quoting 4 year averages.

I don't know about once again, but I think I got it, thanks. I'll play games with PR, but you aren't worthy to lick his shoes.

BDizzle is good guy and good poster (when he isn't picking at me, of course).

 

[BDizzle]

[

Here are the single year numbers from the past 4 years (according to various posts). This is a positive trend. When 882 goes away next year, UM's 4-year APR will likely look very good.

10-11 - 948
09-10 - 950
08-09 - 936
07-08 - 882

Would be if those were the numbers, but they are not:

http://web1.ncaa.org/maps/aprRelease.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Football University of Montana MT 2007 - 2008 939
Football University of Montana MT 2008 - 2009 936
Football University of Montana MT 2009 - 2010 932
Football University of Montana MT 2010 - 2011 929

Once again you are in the wrong. PR quoted single year #s as he stated. You are quoting 4 year averages.

I don't know about once again, but I think I got it, thanks. I'll play games with PR, but you aren't worthy to lick his shoes.

Try me. :thumb:

 

[tnt]

I know that,PR, he just isn't as good as you at the sarcastic insults.... I, at my advanced age, can only handle one of you at a time....

We may be okay, but academics ARE a concern we have dramatically increased admission requirements, and its tough if we don't have athletes that exceed them to maintain both grades and excellence in their sports. The typical student to meet the same hours an athlete puts in would have to work a full time job and moonlite on the weekends..... As the NCAA increases those standards themselves it won't take much of a drop where we are at now to screw the pooch.....