UM No. 1 in Conference Scoring Defense and Red Zone Defense

[Htowngriz]

One more thing to add. The other reason I think it's a more accurate picture is because it's a league game. I'm not saying the coaches intentionally try harder to win league games than non conf... but it's apparent to me that they use those games to work things out, tune things up, gearing up for the more important BSC race. Nowhere in the Bobcat team goals does it directly say "Beat SFA". the three goals they have written down for this season, as is usually the case unless something's changed, are 1: Win the BSC. 2: Beat the Griz. 3: Win the National Championship. Everything the program does is centered on achieving those three goals.

Interesting. Griz goals go like this:

1) Win National Championship
2) Everything else

Boy the last 3-4 years, everything ELSE sure covers a LOT

How quickly forgotton are the days of the cats' goals being 1. Beat the Griz. 2. Well, since we can't do that, let's just try to win more than 3 games.

 

[poorgriz]

One more thing to add. The other reason I think it's a more accurate picture is because it's a league game. I'm not saying the coaches intentionally try harder to win league games than non conf... but it's apparent to me that they use those games to work things out, tune things up, gearing up for the more important BSC race. Nowhere in the Bobcat team goals does it directly say "Beat SFA". the three goals they have written down for this season, as is usually the case unless something's changed, are 1: Win the BSC. 2: Beat the Griz. 3: Win the National Championship. Everything the program does is centered on achieving those three goals.

Why am I not surprised that 'beat the Griz' is above 'win the national championship'? :lol: :roll:

They're in chronological order. We'll likely have #1 completed before we even get to #2. :thumb:

 

[AZGrizFan]

One more thing to add. The other reason I think it's a more accurate picture is because it's a league game. I'm not saying the coaches intentionally try harder to win league games than non conf... but it's apparent to me that they use those games to work things out, tune things up, gearing up for the more important BSC race. Nowhere in the Bobcat team goals does it directly say "Beat SFA". the three goals they have written down for this season, as is usually the case unless something's changed, are 1: Win the BSC. 2: Beat the Griz. 3: Win the National Championship. Everything the program does is centered on achieving those three goals.

Interesting. Griz goals go like this:

1) Win National Championship
2) Everything else

Boy the last 3-4 years, everything ELSE sure covers a LOT

You guys are gettin' slow. That took ya'll almost 2 hours. :lol:

 

[PlayerRep]

I'm still working on this, but it looks the Scoring Defense and Total Defense would change as follows if all FBS and all D-II/NAIA games are excluded, leaving only FBS games.

SD - UM - 19.6 to 21 (to tied for 3rd)
- UCD- 20.7 to 20.6 (to 1)
-SU - 22 to 21 (tied for 3rd)
-MSU - 22.3 to 25.75 (to 5th)
-NAU - 22.6 to 19.5 (to 2d)

TD - NAU - 326.4 to 309.75 (still 1st)
-MSU - 338.8 to 351 (to 3d)
- SU - 346.7 to 355.66 (to 4th)
- UM - 357 to 397.75 (to 5th)
-Davis -377.5 to 346 (to 2d)

While I haven't finished all calculations, I don't believe the top 5 changes in either of these categories.

This is what I thought would be the case. The minor skewing of FBS and D-II games has not skewed the stats much, because of counteracting each other and the total number of games. The conference only stats are much more skewed, because of the fewer games in the stats.

 

[CDAGRIZ]

This thread has the potential to go 17 pages. The last page reminds me of 7th grade algebra. CDA at least kept the damn thing interesting and hilarious. This thing is really fairly simple. Griz fans think the cats are overrated and have not played anyone worthwhile. Cat fans think the Griz are over rated and have not played anyone worthwhile. The cats played a team that beat the Griz, so cat fans believe their team is now world beaters. Griz fans think NAU had a hangover game. To me it ultimately sound something like this - da, dee, da, da, da! Good thing for both sides - we get to find out who is better come November. I peronsally think the Griz will dominate based on several factors. 1. Their plane is always on time. 2. Their helmets are way cooler. 3. Fat girls are going to collapse the bleachers in Bozeman and their stadium will look even more ridiculous. 4. Missoula has a five guys burger and fries. Bozeman has Burger King. 5. Bozeman smells like cat piss. 6. Bozeman has a kitten for a mascot and he has never won the Capital One challenge. Take it to the bank bitches.

At least you guys still have Monte :thumb:

Holy shit, thank you! I almost forgot about the old Champ (it's Champ, right) costume. That thing was rad.

 

[ordigger]

Still waiting for a response to my question earlier, quoted in this post for convenience. I'm assuming you are punting.

"Really? Are you still trying to argue this or are you guys just playing lawyer and picking a side to argue just for fun... when you really don't seriously believe in what you're arguing? You have thrown out the blanket statement that six data points are always better than two. Do you really believe that, regardless of what those data points are? Are you saying that if two FCS teams have played six games each, one team played two FCS schools and four NAIA schools, and the other FCS team played two FCS schools and four FBS schools... that those stats would hold any relevance whatsoever?"

Again, I am saying that stats for the first 6 games of the Big Sky conference teams are more valid than conference only stats for 2 games?

Let me ask you a question. Are you saying that stats for 2 conference games are more valid than stats for the first 6 games of the season? That is the heart of the point that was being discussed in this thread.

No... you started by saying that, but then that led to your blanket statement saying that 6 data points are always more valid than 2. That's simply not true in all cases, per my comment above. Therefore, it all depends on the quality of the opponents within your sample. Lastly, my answer would be YES, in this particular situation it would be more accurate to look at only two BSC conference games than it would 6 games, which includes a mix match of NAIA, D2, FCS, and FBS schools. If all games were FCS I'd be with you. Having said all that... NEITHER option is an accurate reflection of where teams are at yet. :lol:

Nice to see someone gets it, even if they are a Cat fan. PR doesn't understand the concept of true statistics, and the sampling variable. He's to hung up on 6 games or 2 games. It has nothing to do with the number of games, if you are doing a true comparison. It has to do with the characteristics of the sample you are using.

Thus if I am doing a study on hamburgers at drive through restaurants, I would not include Chic-Fil-A simply because they are a drive through business. Relating back to football, because the sample size for non-conference games varies so widely (teams playing down vs teams playing up, some 2 FBS games, some none), then in its truest sense only conference statistics make sense. I could careless if its even 1 game, and by the end of the season the best overall statistics to use will still be conference stats. This is sampling in its pure form.

But I understand, he's a lawyer that likes to pretend he stayed at every Holiday Inn every night of the year, and there is nothing he doesnt know or can't do. But we all know what he is like, be we Griz, Cat, Eagle or any fan that frequents this board. He's overthinking the process....and missing the most basic concept.

 

[grizindabox]

Whether 2 games or 6 games the stats are fools gold because it does not include a component for strength of schedule. Whether people want to admit or not, UM's schedule has ended up being soft, soft, soft up until this point. PR is the master of stats, but he doesn't want to admit that anyone can cherry pick stats to prove a point.

 

[poorgriz]

I'm still working on this, but it looks the Scoring Defense and Total Defense would change as follows if all FBS and all D-II/NAIA games are excluded, leaving only FBS games.

SD - UM - 19.6 to 21 (to tied for 3rd)
- UCD- 20.7 to 20.6 (to 1)
-SU - 22 to 21 (tied for 3rd)
-MSU - 22.3 to 25.75 (to 5th)
-NAU - 22.6 to 19.5 (to 2d)

TD - NAU - 326.4 to 309.75 (still 1st)
-MSU - 338.8 to 351 (to 3d)
- SU - 346.7 to 355.66 (to 4th)
- UM - 357 to 397.75 (to 5th)
-Davis -377.5 to 346 (to 2d)

While I haven't finished all calculations, I don't believe the top 5 changes in either of these categories.

This is what I thought would be the case. The minor skewing of FBS and D-II games has not skewed the stats much, because of counteracting each other and the total number of games. The conference only stats are much more skewed, because of the fewer games in the stats.

Correct... it didn't skew the stats much, but throwing out the non FCS games moved you from 1st to tied for 3rd, and from 4th to 5th in scoring D and total D respectively. I haven't looked at all the other stats but I'm guessing you would drop in pretty much all of them when you just look at FCS games. This is probably why you used ALL games in your initial observation, rather than just BSC or at least just FCS. I'm not knocking you for that, that's what I probably would have done too if I were trying to show people how good our D was statistically. Use the numbers that best support your case. :thumb:

 

[PhxGriz]

No way this makes 17 pages.

 

[nzone]

Going forward I will bet the stats will favor msu....they don't play anyone until Nov. 9th.

 

[GoosetownGriz]

So my son who is 12 was messing around with his hunting rifle and accidentally shot me in the knee, go figure I am screwed now for the season!! I gave him a thousand dollars and told him it was the best thing he has ever done in his life. He says, "why father, I could have killed you?" My response, "I am already dead after reading this sh t."

Classic Cat fan: dies from reading, doesn't leave all of his money to his kids, teaches kids that poor hunter's safety is profitable, and comes back from the dead to post on eGriz. I've seen it a thousand times.

Funniest sonofabitch on this board! Keep up the good work you make this site entertaining.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk - now Free

 

[AZGrizFan]

No way this makes 17 pages.

Fuck you. I'm on a mission now.

Well, me and CDAGRIZ. :thumb:

OK, mostly CDAGRIZ. :|

 

[snap]

So my son who is 12 was messing around with his hunting rifle and accidentally shot me in the knee, go figure I am screwed now for the season!! I gave him a thousand dollars and told him it was the best thing he has ever done in his life. He says, "why father, I could have killed you?" My response, "I am already dead after reading this sh t."

Classic Cat fan: dies from reading, doesn't leave all of his money to his kids, teaches kids that poor hunter's safety is profitable, and comes back from the dead to post on eGriz. I've seen it a thousand times.

Funniest sonofabitch on this board! Keep up the good work you make this site entertaining.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk - now Free

CDA is the Sergei Bubka of Egriz. Son of a bitch just keeps raising the bar.

 

[PlayerRep]

Still waiting for a response to my question earlier, quoted in this post for convenience. I'm assuming you are punting.

"Really? Are you still trying to argue this or are you guys just playing lawyer and picking a side to argue just for fun... when you really don't seriously believe in what you're arguing? You have thrown out the blanket statement that six data points are always better than two. Do you really believe that, regardless of what those data points are? Are you saying that if two FCS teams have played six games each, one team played two FCS schools and four NAIA schools, and the other FCS team played two FCS schools and four FBS schools... that those stats would hold any relevance whatsoever?"

Again, I am saying that stats for the first 6 games of the Big Sky conference teams are more valid than conference only stats for 2 games?

Let me ask you a question. Are you saying that stats for 2 conference games are more valid than stats for the first 6 games of the season? That is the heart of the point that was being discussed in this thread.

No... you started by saying that, but then that led to your blanket statement saying that 6 data points are always more valid than 2. That's simply not true in all cases, per my comment above. Therefore, it all depends on the quality of the opponents within your sample. Lastly, my answer would be YES, in this particular situation it would be more accurate to look at only two BSC conference games than it would 6 games, which includes a mix match of NAIA, D2, FCS, and FBS schools. If all games were FCS I'd be with you. Having said all that... NEITHER option is an accurate reflection of where teams are at yet. :lol:

Nice to see someone gets it, even if they are a Cat fan. PR doesn't understand the concept of true statistics, and the sampling variable. He's to hung up on 6 games or 2 games. It has nothing to do with the number of games, if you are doing a true comparison. It has to do with the characteristics of the sample you are using.

Thus if I am doing a study on hamburgers at drive through restaurants, I would not include Chic-Fil-A simply because they are a drive through business. Relating back to football, because the sample size for non-conference games varies so widely (teams playing down vs teams playing up, some 2 FBS games, some none), then in its truest sense only conference statistics make sense. I could careless if its even 1 game, and by the end of the season the best overall statistics to use will still be conference stats. This is sampling in its pure form.

But I understand, he's a lawyer that likes to pretend he stayed at every Holiday Inn every night of the year, and there is nothing he doesnt know or can't do. But we all know what he is like, be we Griz, Cat, Eagle or any fan that frequents this board. He's overthinking the process....and missing the most basic concept.

Nope, I used, and believe it's best to use, all football games played to date, rather than stats for 1 or 2 conference games. I did have to do a sampling, because I used all games played. Using all games is not mixing hamburger and chicken sandwiches. They are all football games, and are all the football games played by teams in the conference to date.

Now, as I continue to crank out the stats excluding the FBS/D-II games, I can see that it is not even a close call. The all-games stats are much better, i.e. more valid, the than the 1 or 2 games stats of conference games. There just haven't been enough games in the conference yet, for the related stats to have much validity.

 

[CV Griz Fan]

No way this makes 17 pages.[/q

Unfortunately, I think it does.

 

[PlayerRep]

I'm still working on this, but it looks the Scoring Defense and Total Defense would change as follows if all FBS and all D-II/NAIA games are excluded, leaving only FBS games.

SD - UM - 19.6 to 21 (to tied for 3rd)
- UCD- 20.7 to 20.6 (to 1)
-SU - 22 to 21 (tied for 3rd)
-MSU - 22.3 to 25.75 (to 5th)
-NAU - 22.6 to 19.5 (to 2d)

TD - NAU - 326.4 to 309.75 (still 1st)
-MSU - 338.8 to 351 (to 3d)
- SU - 346.7 to 355.66 (to 4th)
- UM - 357 to 397.75 (to 5th)
-Davis -377.5 to 346 (to 2d)

While I haven't finished all calculations, I don't believe the top 5 changes in either of these categories.

This is what I thought would be the case. The minor skewing of FBS and D-II games has not skewed the stats much, because of counteracting each other and the total number of games. The conference only stats are much more skewed, because of the fewer games in the stats.

Correct... it didn't skew the stats much, but throwing out the non FCS games moved you from 1st to tied for 3rd, and from 4th to 5th in scoring D and total D respectively. I haven't looked at all the other stats but I'm guessing you would drop in pretty much all of them when you just look at FCS games. This is probably why you used ALL games in your initial observation, rather than just BSC or at least just FCS. I'm not knocking you for that, that's what I probably would have done too if I were trying to show people how good our D was statistically. Use the numbers that best support your case. :thumb:

Note that MSU's rankings went down in each category too.

I take it that you're essentially admitting that the all-game stats are more valid than the 1-2 games stats of conference only play. The numbers I'm cranking out support that, as I knew they would.

I used the all-game stats because they were readily available on the conference website, and I knew they would be more valid than the 1-2 game stats of the conference only. Also, I wanted to show/use stats for all games. Literally, that's what I wanted to show. I used the same stats used by the press, and almost everyone at this point of the season. I was not trying to make UM's defense look good. I was just taking keys stats from the conference website, to show what UM's defensive stats and rankings were, so that no one else had to go look up what I had just looked up. No editorial comment and no conclusion was drawn in my post.

And then some jokers started saying the 1-2 conference stats were more valid, and that was obviously totally laughable. The jokers have done a pretty good job making fools of themselves.

I assume some of the Cat trolls checked, and then picked, conference only stats, because UM's one bad game was in them.

And no it's not true that UM would drop in most categories, by backing out the the FCS/D-II games. Some of UM's offensive stats would improve.

 

[Copper Griz]

No way this makes 17 pages.

Ha. Now you are starting to act like Grizo. This thread is gonna get rolled.

 

[poorgriz]

I GUARANTEE this will go 17... because I'm gonna keep telling PR he's wrong! :lol:

Seriously... I think you're way over thinking this, even going to the point of stepping outside your field of expertise (the law) to play statistician. You mention that your way is more "valid". Didn't most everyone who's weighed in on this agree that NO STATS at this point in the season are "Valid" yet? I, and others, believe that you can't just always say that 6 data points are more statistically accurate than 2, because it largely depends on the quality of the opponents. You disagree and are sticking with the mind set that more data is always better. Agree to disagree. Good night.

 

[PlayerRep]

I GUARANTEE this will go 17... because I'm gonna keep telling PR he's wrong! :lol:

Seriously... I think you're way over thinking this, even going to the point of stepping outside your field of expertise (the law) to play statistician. You mention that your way is more "valid". Didn't most everyone who's weighed in on this agree that NO STATS at this point in the season are "Valid" yet? I, and others, believe that you can't just always say that 6 data points are more statistically accurate than 2, because it largely depends on the quality of the opponents. You disagree and are sticking with the mind set that more data is always better. Agree to disagree. Good night.

I'm not over-thinking anything. I picked the best available and most commonly used stats from the conference website and posted them. The main question being discussed now is whether all-game stats or the conference only stats are better, more meaningful, more valid. It is clear that the all-game stats are the best--of these two choices.

Football stats are always impacted by many many factors, including quality of opponent. Also, the weather, injuries, which team was more up for the game, where the game was played, officiating, etc. So what. Everyone knows that. I haven't said that more data is always better. Can you just stick to what was actually said. In college football, however, I will say that 6 games of stats to start a season will almost always be more meaningful than 1 or 2 games of stats. The fact that you can't see that, or are just too stubborn to admit it, makes wonder what is wrong with you.

 

[Mr. Greenjeans]

No way this makes 17 pages.

Ha. Now you are starting to act like Grizo. This thread is gonna get rolled.

Yes, please..... :lol: :lol: :lol: